SB53: Pats vs. Rams Buildup

jodyreeddudley78

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I think that's the philosophy. Rule changes have made it more difficult to stop an opponent on defense. Fast moving offenses wear out defenses quickly. Keep your defense off the field, let them rest. NE was 2nd in the league in plays per game, KC was 23rd. NE was 2nd in ToP, KC was 26th. Meanwhile, KC was 1st in Points per Play and Points per Game. NE was top 5 in both, but the gap was fairly large. You could argue that a true shoot out would have favored KC, like it did in the 2nd half. But if the defense can be rested enough to stop KC (or LAR, NO, Pitt, etc.) two or three times a game, they should win. Or maybe I'm wrong. But the 18 Patriots offense seems fairly different from the other top offenses in the league.
 

Super Nomario

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I think that's the philosophy. Rule changes have made it more difficult to stop an opponent on defense. Fast moving offenses wear out defenses quickly. Keep your defense off the field, let them rest. NE was 2nd in the league in plays per game, KC was 23rd. NE was 2nd in ToP, KC was 26th. Meanwhile, KC was 1st in Points per Play and Points per Game. NE was top 5 in both, but the gap was fairly large. You could argue that a true shoot out would have favored KC, like it did in the 2nd half. But if the defense can be rested enough to stop KC (or LAR, NO, Pitt, etc.) two or three times a game, they should win. Or maybe I'm wrong. But the 18 Patriots offense seems fairly different from the other top offenses in the league.
I have a hard time with this argument when the well-rested Patriots defense could not stop KC at all late in the game. I don't think TOP means nearly as much as people think it does.
 

Red Averages

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On the Pats OL, it is more amazing given they spent a 1st rounder on a stud who didn't play a single snap.
 

johnmd20

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I have a hard time with this argument when the well-rested Patriots defense could not stop KC at all late in the game. I don't think TOP means nearly as much as people think it does.
And that exhausted KC D was able to get the Pats into three separate 3rd and 9+ yard situations. And, frankly, their coverage on third down was pretty darn good. Those passes Brady threw were incredible, into tight windows, with both Edelman and Gronk going at full speed.

If you want to look at the greatness of Tom Brady, look at that 3rd down pass to a blanketed Edelman, going across the field. He had about a 10 inch window. And he drilled it right into it.
 

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One thing that I haven’t seen mentioned here (or elsewhere, but I don’t read much that isn’t here or linked from here) is that pass rushers want to rush and hit, they don’t want to get hit. The constant barrage of running plays, including not just 5 OL, but Gronk and Allen and Develin, means that those guys are getting beat up. That has to take some of the wind out of their sails for actual pass rushing.
Combine that with long (both in time and number of plays) drives, and a defense wears out.
 

Average Game James

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I’m sure mentioned upthread already, but the real worry here is that the strength of the Rams defense matches a well known Brady/NE weakness. LA was #1 in the NFL generating interior pressure, completely unsurprising with Donald in the middle. NFL Network just showed Brady stats vs. interior and edge pressure, and the stats show what you’d expect: against interior pressure, Brady struggles with a passer rating barely above 60. Against edge pressure, he’s generally very good (I don’t remember the number, but passer rating >110). Hopefully the run game can slow the pass rush down a touch, but Aaron Donald could single-handedly wreck this game for the Pats.
 

Captaincoop

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I have an idea...hit Brandin Cooks once in the first quarter and he'll quit.
I’m sure mentioned upthread already, but the real worry here is that the strength of the Rams defense matches a well known Brady/NE weakness. LA was #1 in the NFL generating interior pressure, completely unsurprising with Donald in the middle. NFL Network just showed Brady stats vs. interior and edge pressure, and the stats show what you’d expect: against interior pressure, Brady struggles with a passer rating barely above 60. Against edge pressure, he’s generally very good (I don’t remember the number, but passer rating >110). Hopefully the run game can slow the pass rush down a touch, but Aaron Donald could single-handedly wreck this game for the Pats.
To my untrained eye, the Pats' interior O Line is as good as it's ever been. So there's that.
 

jodyreeddudley78

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I have a hard time with this argument when the well-rested Patriots defense could not stop KC at all late in the game. I don't think TOP means nearly as much as people think it does.
That's more than fair. But it's also fair to point out that after 3 quarters, KC (a historic offense, according to DVOA) only scored 7 points. And 7 of their points in the 4th were essentially given to them off of an INT. They held them to 290 yards. I don't think ToP is some sort of indicator of the superior team -- this isn't 1976. I do think that what the Patriots did in the 1st half was deliberate, for lack of a better term. It's also not a coincidence that when the game sped up, it was White/Burkhead on the field. The Patriots are the best team at adapting, and it's not even close.
 

staz

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The cradle of the game.
FWIW, NBC Nightly News is running a lawsuits/Rule 17 NFCCG story.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/22/rams-saints-outcome-fuels-lawsuit-seeking-a-rule-17-do-over/

Of interest:
Given that the lawsuit has been filed in Louisiana state court, the publicly-elected local judges may be inclined to take a more favorable look at this, forcing the NFL to potentially scramble through appeals courts and/or federal courts to avoid what could start as a half-joke and quickly become a deadly-serious problem for the league. At a minimum, a state-court judge could force the NFL to emerge from hiding and answer pointed questions about what happened on Sunday, when Rule 17 applies, and why it shouldn’t apply here.

This will, of course, prompt Rog to form an all-star team of Rams and Saints to play the Pats.
 

Marciano490

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FWIW, NBC Nightly News is running a lawsuits/Rule 17 NFCCG story.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/22/rams-saints-outcome-fuels-lawsuit-seeking-a-rule-17-do-over/

Of interest:
Given that the lawsuit has been filed in Louisiana state court, the publicly-elected local judges may be inclined to take a more favorable look at this, forcing the NFL to potentially scramble through appeals courts and/or federal courts to avoid what could start as a half-joke and quickly become a deadly-serious problem for the league. At a minimum, a state-court judge could force the NFL to emerge from hiding and answer pointed questions about what happened on Sunday, when Rule 17 applies, and why it shouldn’t apply here.

This will, of course, prompt Rog to form an all-star team of Rams and Saints to play the Pats.
Or, they’ll remove to federal court and not have to deal with Louisiana’s backwater judicial system.
 

SoxinSeattle

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FWIW, NBC Nightly News is running a lawsuits/Rule 17 NFCCG story.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/01/22/rams-saints-outcome-fuels-lawsuit-seeking-a-rule-17-do-over/

Of interest:
Given that the lawsuit has been filed in Louisiana state court, the publicly-elected local judges may be inclined to take a more favorable look at this, forcing the NFL to potentially scramble through appeals courts and/or federal courts to avoid what could start as a half-joke and quickly become a deadly-serious problem for the league. At a minimum, a state-court judge could force the NFL to emerge from hiding and answer pointed questions about what happened on Sunday, when Rule 17 applies, and why it shouldn’t apply here.

This will, of course, prompt Rog to form an all-star team of Rams and Saints to play the Pats.
After the Pat's win declare the Rams and Saints co-losers. Problem solved.
 

DJnVa

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Is any QB good against interior defense that gets to the QB?
It's how we heard the NYG were able to beat Brady.

But I think in this case, what we want to do is disguise where the pressure is coming from, the amoeba defense. Goff gets happy feet and he'll throw the ball away quickly. If he is unsure about where the pressure is coming from that's obviously a big plus.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see one of those interceptions this game where someone fakes a blitz and drops back into coverage--Van Hoy or Hightower or someone.
 

loshjott

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Is any QB good against interior defense that gets to the QB?
Guys like Mahomes and Rodgers who can break the pocket and throw accurately on the run can beat it. Brady has an uncanny ability (among his many uncanny abilities) to feel the outside rush and step up in the pocket and drill his throws. Much harder to do with an effective inside rush, especially without blitzing.
 

Stanley Steamer

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I wouldn't underestimate the Rams at this point.
True, their offense took a bit of a downturn at the end of the season, with more onus put on Goff. And the D was torched throughout the year, particularly against the run. But just like the Pats, they seem to be rounding into form at the right time.
The biggest thing on the defensive side is that they are shutting down the run, giving up only about 50 yards per game to the Cowboys and Saints. Suh and Fowler Jr have raised their games significantly. I believe Belichick will be able to devise strategies to better that, but it won't be easy to run against them. The interior pass rush could be a factor, but Brady's ability to check down to the backs should neutralize that, as usual.
On offense, as a Rams fan (Pats are #2), I'm worried about Gurley's no-show last game. If he plays tight, it could be a problem. But if he is able to step it up, NE definitely has the problem. Anderson should be decent, not spectacular. The team seems to have moved on from Kupp's injury, involving the TEs much more, and Reynolds chipping in more and more.
I have not been a big proponent of Goff's throughout last year and this, feeling that he was merely an extension of an excellent offensive coach, who made the game easy for him. But I saw something different on Sunday. The game was not going their way, and he kept making good decisions. I also felt he was putting the ball on the money more than I'm used to seeing. In OT, he twice got rid of the ball in an instant to turn losses into gains. That was a very difficult environment to play, and succeed in, and he made it work. He might just be coming of age.
I am always interested to see what formations the Rams will bring out. Against Dallas they used a lot of deception under center and kept getting huge chunks of yards running and from play action. They didn't do any of that against the Saints; likely couldn't, given the noise and the matchups. They struggled but still managed to score 23 points. I expect that with 2 weeks of planning, a neutral dome, and a different opponent, they will try to open up the playbook more. The Patriots defense from earlier this year might get torched, but the current edition has been playing much better. Where did the pass rush come from?!
Both teams have excellent special teams.
Coach Bill will no doubt have time to figure some weaknesses to exploit. I think, in the end, both teams should be able to put up 30 points. I hope for, and expect, another close game.
 

E5 Yaz

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The biggest thing on the defensive side is that they are shutting down the run, giving up only about 50 yards per game to the Cowboys and Saints. Suh and Fowler Jr have raised their games significantly. I believe Belichick will be able to devise strategies to better that, but it won't be easy to run against them.
I didn't watch all of both games, but from what I did see it sure looked as those Dallas and NO tried to pound the middle more than they should have. I would suspect that the Patriots will run more off the edges
 

Jimbodandy

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I didn't watch all of both games, but from what I did see it sure looked as those Dallas and NO tried to pound the middle more than they should have. I would suspect that the Patriots will run more off the edges
I agree. You'll see more of than than in the last two games. I expect even more misdirection on run plays as well, like end arounds and fake end arounds.
 

bakahump

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After the Pat's win declare the Rams and Saints co-losers. Problem solved.
Not really fair that the Saints also miss out on a "Superbowl Participant" Banner.


I wonder if the Offensive philosophy has something to do with being able to outnumber/ dictate to the opponent.
Against the Pats I think most would agree the way to win is flood the field with cover guys, take Edelman and Gronk away (probably doubling 1 of them), and Get pressure with 4 or 5 and hope they can get to Brady before he can win with White/Hogan/Dorsett.
There really is no way for the Pats to overwhelm that kind of defense. They have to hope that Edelman or Gronk can win a Double team or that W/H/D can win an individual matchup. All while the OL holds up and before Brady gets gotten too.

<Also an interesting aside...
Top 10 Rushers averaged 109 attempts per fumble. (Michel was on this pace with 209 and 2) and they averaged 4.44 Yards per rush (Michel was 4.5)
Top 10 Qbs averaged 54 throws per INT. and 7.63 Yards per attempt (Brady was 51 and 7.6)

Its also fair to point out that ALL fumbles are not loss of possesion, while ALL interceptions are.

So while throwing is more of a "Chunk play" they both lead to the same amount of Yards/TOs.

I think its also relatively safer to say that the drop off after the top 10 Qbs is slightly bigger then the drop off of the top 10 RBs.

Finally this does not take into account sacks or Fumbles by the QB or WR after reception which lead to negative yards or loss of possesion.

Now I wont necessarily argue that running is as good as passing in todays NFL....but I dont think its as far off as we think and I believe BB has determined that its close enough that "dedicating the 1st half" towards the running game evens out and of these sligh negatives by providing better effects later in the game.>

But you can Overwhelm 4-5 DLs and 6 Cover guys. Just not passing.
1. If a team has a nickel/dime/6 or 7 DBs and can get pressure with 4/5DL that makes throwing really tough (obv). And probably increases the INT chances.
2. Used to be that not many teams could do that. Scottish Game being an exception and at least in part became a blue print on how to stop a high powered throwing offense. Teams soon learned that having 5 guys bring pressure and 6 guys cover was a good way to win.
3. The TE in General, and Great Gronk in particular (and this year pretty good Gronk) can be a great weapon to counteract this, in that with Devlin (optional or Allen) you can now flip the script and out number the DL (5+1+1 Blockers) and hopefully get a running back loose in the secondary consistantly.
3b. Interesting aside that often a Great Pass Rusher (just the guy you want to counter NFL Passing offenses) are often not very good Run stoppers (obv exceptions apply).
3c. Devlin/Allen (and obv "Good Gronk") can make just enough catches to keep a defense honest.
4. Pretty certain that with 5/6/7 DBs your not busting a 40 yard plus gain running the ball, but 5+ yards seems quite likely.
5. Running It wears out the DL, as we have talked about by being the Hitee as opposed to the hitter. Plus if a DE does try to loop out wide one blocker can pretty easily take him out of the running play which allows the other Blockers (4+1+1) to block the DL and get into the secondary and hit 190-200# ers and spring big gains.
6. On top of "wearing out the DL" you also in theory could "wear out" DBs. Getting hit by 250-320# guys has to take a toll on DBs.
7. This all allows you "control the clock". I am not saying that its specifically about TOP, which is a strategic win, but rather controlling possessions at a more tactical level. Maybe you go into a Hurry up in an effort to gain a 2 for 1 possession (think NBA). Then you slow back down to burn 3:47 off the clock before the end of half.
8. As another poster mentioned more Reps FROM the defense allows you to see the entire (or a larger chunk) of their intentions.
9. This hopefully Allows you to rack up a significant lead in Plays over your opponent. which allows your defense to be fresher and therefore more effective in a close game in the 4th. Meanwhile they are just the opposite.
10. With the right personnel you can also feel fairly confident that you can maintain possessions and reduce turnovers. Whereas even with a great QB Interceptions are incredibly hard to predict and avoid (Think off Gronks and Edelmans hands).
11. After STARTING with this philosophy in the second half late 3rd qtr you can then switch to the short passing attack the Pats have mastered, but now with..
a. A tired opposing Pass Rush
b. A banged up opposing secondary
c. Hopefully the lead
d. A different look then what the defense has been dealing with all day
e. a fresher QB and wr Corp. (they havent been hit as much as say the RB who now sits on the bench having done his job of dishing and sustaining punishment)
f. a defensive team unsure if the TE is Still Blocking or now part of the passing game play to play.
g. Potentially a "well set up clock management situation" (for instance a 10-20 pt lead with 10 mins to play).
h. an Idea (and 1 hr of study) of what the defense was planning to do to stop you coming in.

Obviously any plan requires you to execute. BB would reiterate this.

In short it seems like the last couple games have been a situation of "shortening" the game in regards to Running (especially with Michel). Not so much in the game itself as essentially telling Michel "Give me everything you have in the first half...dont worry about the 2nd." Basically giving him a games worth of work over the first 35 minutes or so.
You then replace him with White/Burkhead (who are fresh) and fit your "2nd half passing scheme" better anyway.
Meanwhile the guys he (and the OL) has been hammering on all game (Defense) now have "increased responsibilities" (IE Pass Coverage) along with increased Fatigue and wear and tear.
All in an effort to put your self in a position to win (or salt it away) in the last 15-20 mins of the game.

its like the old NBA joke. I dont watch whole games.....I just watch the last 3 mins.
to my simple eyes BB has come up with a strategic plan that allows him to weaken the opponent, gain the lead, "control the clock" (whatever form that takes) all while keeping your guys on defense, QB, WRs, Pass Catching RBs) relatively fresh in comparison. All in an effort to "win early" if possible, but "win late" as a necessity.


All plans have flaws. So...
1. If the other team jumps out to a big lead you probably cant afford to wait to long and need to start throwing more. Of course there is probably something else going on if this happens (see #3 Turnovers)
2. If The defense stops the run well without selling out especially in a 4 or 5 man front, But its good bet that this is not the NORM in the NFL, nor can an opposing coach ignore the ability of the Pats to switch back to a short passing attack.
3. Turnovers, which can ruin any offensive plan.
4. Injuries to key personnel (Not even as essential as Brady per se) but think Michel is hurt or unavailable or Devlin or Gronk or Mason gets hurt 3 mins it. Again can ruin any plan.
5. An exceptional individual performance or talent by/on the opposition. Say a LB who can single up Gronk and also stuff the run. Or that DL man who blows up runs and is in Bradys face all day.


Obviously as Ike said "Plans are useless but Planning is indispensable". Which I take to mean that not every part of your plan is going to go "according to plan" but that even if only a part of it does it puts you in a better situation to win.
 

joe dokes

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Jimbodandy

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The complaints by Payton and NO in general right now really just need to stop. If it distracts LA at all, great. But it's embarrassing.

Saints still let LAR drive the field twice. Payton himself badly mismanaged the clock. It was a bad call, but jeez.
 

Adrian's Dome

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The complaints by Payton and NO in general right now really just need to stop. If it distracts LA at all, great. But it's embarrassing.

Saints still let LAR drive the field twice. Payton himself badly mismanaged the clock. It was a bad call, but jeez.
Plus they turned the ball over in OT.
 

Captaincoop

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Speaking of missed calls, I've heard enough about the missed roughing call on Brady. It was a bad call, but IIRC, Edelman was absolutely mugged on the same play, and that wasn't called. So basically minimal net effect of the bad calls on that play. They just called the wrong one of two that the Chiefs committed.

And that's not to mention the blatant pick play that resulted in a KC touchdown.

In short, let's just play the Super Bowl.
 

Jimbodandy

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Speaking of missed calls, I've heard enough about the missed roughing call on Brady. It was a bad call, but IIRC, Edelman was absolutely mugged on the same play, and that wasn't called. So basically minimal net effect of the bad calls on that play. They just called the wrong one of two that the Chiefs committed.

And that's not to mention the blatant pick play that resulted in a KC touchdown.

In short, let's just play the Super Bowl.
Is my memory bad or wasn't there an identical roughing call on a facemask graze swipe on Mahomes as well. Pick play is one thing (and true), but I swear that the exact same play was called on us.

P.s. may have been in the other game
 

Al Zarilla

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All the Brady Super Bowl wins will be re-run on NFL Network...

Only In Boston‏ @OnlyInBOS 45m45 minutes ago
Tom Brady's 5 Super Bowl game wins will be aired in its entirety on the NFL network starting tonight. 1.23.19. 9PM - Super Bowl XXXVI 1AM - Super Bowl XXXVIII 1.24.19. 9PM - Super Bowl XLIX 1AM - Super Bowl XXXIX 1.25.19. 9PM - Super Bowl LI
Also NFL Mic’d Up Is on NFLN at 3 pm Western and I assume 6 Eastern. I heard the name Julian Edelman as one of those mic’d up.
 

EL Jeffe

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Two Rams I'm concerned about, but are flying under the radar a bit:

Dante Fowler has 3 sacks in his last two games against the Pats - he just always seems to give the Patriots trouble. They've handled Bosa, Ingram, Ford and Houston very well the past two weeks, but Fowler can bring heat off the edge. His motor ran hot and cold in Jacksonville, but he always brought his A-Game against New England. Sure, Donald is 1st ballot Hall of Fame but don't sleep on Fowler this game.

The Rams have a ton of weapons on offense but Gerald Everett at Tight End might be the guy who ends up giving the Pats a real headache; Chung is going to have a hard time on 1-on-1 match-ups with him (Everett has legit 4.6 speed). They might be forced to go with the 4 CB package at times, with Jason McCourty assigned to Everett...but the Rams are much more likely to run against that smaller look than KC was.
 

dynomite

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The complaints by Payton and NO in general right now really just need to stop. If it distracts LA at all, great. But it's embarrassing.

Saints still let LAR drive the field twice. Payton himself badly mismanaged the clock. It was a bad call, but jeez.
It’s been nearly two decades and the Raiders are still talking about the Tuck Rule... and that was called correctly. Steve Bartman had to go into hiding in Florida (?) until the Cubs won a WS.

Bad calls are always only one piece of a larger story, but given the situation and the egregiousness of the blown call, I wouldn’t expect to hear the end of this until the Saints win another Super Bowl.
 

Red Averages

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The Rams have a ton of weapons on offense but Gerald Everett at Tight End might be the guy who ends up giving the Pats a real headache; Chung is going to have a hard time on 1-on-1 match-ups with him (Everett has legit 4.6 speed). They might be forced to go with the 4 CB package at times, with Jason McCourty assigned to Everett...but the Rams are much more likely to run against that smaller look than KC was.
Let's not get too carried away here.

Everett game logs:
(rec / targets / yards/ TD)
Week 1: 0/0/0/0
Week 2: 1/1/17/0
Week 3: 1/2/3/0
Week 4: 1/1/13/0
Week 5: 3/3/24/0
Week 6: 2/4/24/0
Week 7: 1/2/-5/0
Week 8: 1/2/22/0
Week 9: 3/5/48/0
Week 10: 2/2/15/1
Week 11: 3/4/49/2
Week 12: bye
Week 13: 1/3/7/0
Week 14: 4/7/29/0
Week 15: 5/7/46/0
Week 16: 5/6/28/0
Week 17: 0/1/0/0

Divisional Round: 0/0/0/0
Championship Round: 2/4/50/0
 

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I wonder what effect Hekker's passing ability on fakes does to the Pats' special teams' punt unit. Will the threat hinder the ability to block effectively and get good returns? Given what's at stake, there seems to be an decent chance the Rams take a shot if they fall behind.
 

Red Averages

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I wonder what effect Hekker's passing ability on fakes does to the Pats' special teams' punt unit. Will the threat hinder the ability to block effectively and get good returns? Given what's at stake, there seems to be an decent chance the Rams take a shot if they fall behind.
Ok and now we're worried about Rams punt fakes.

So far this thread is going well. The big concerns are a TE that never was a threat this year and a punter throwing the ball!
 

Carmine Hose

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I wonder what effect Hekker's passing ability on fakes does to the Pats' special teams' punt unit. Will the threat hinder the ability to block effectively and get good returns? Given what's at stake, there seems to be an decent chance the Rams take a shot if they fall behind.
On the flip side, this could be the game that Belichick brings back the fake punt for the Pats. Just don't let Chung make the call.
 

DourDoerr

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Ok and now we're worried about Rams punt fakes.

So far this thread is going well. The big concerns are a TE that never was a threat this year and a punter throwing the ball!
I think the thread has established bigger potential concerns than the ones you've just outlined. I'd say the biggest concern would be a relentless push up the middle by the Rams' D (who have the players to do it) supplemented by an unregulated Talib grabfest on the outside. Bringing up the fake punt reflects Hekker's facility with the pass and - Carmine Hose is right - his judgement. It's an interesting sidelight (at least to me) that should be included in the buildup to the Super Bowl. If Hekker hadn't shown himself to be a decent passer more than once, than you'd probably be correct that it's beyond trivial.
 

E5 Yaz

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So far this thread is going well. The big concerns are a TE that never was a threat this year and a punter throwing the ball!
If either turns out to be a factor, does that mean you'll owe us another $50?
 

johnmd20

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Ok and now we're worried about Rams punt fakes.

So far this thread is going well. The big concerns are a TE that never was a threat this year and a punter throwing the ball!
Wednesday, January 23rd. ONLY 11 more days until the "big game".

I would submit that the fake punt is a legitimate concern. The TE who had like 14 catches this season is most certainly not the glaring issue.
 

m0ckduck

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No. He’s closer to Brady than he is to, say, Russell Wilson. Tall and gangly, Rams would be afraid he’d get broken in half if he ran much.
Goff gets happy feet and he'll throw the ball away quickly. If he is unsure about where the pressure is coming from that's obviously a big plus.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see one of those interceptions this game where someone fakes a blitz and drops back into coverage--Van Hoy or Hightower or someone.
I keep seeing Drew Bledsoe in Goff. Some truly majestic throws, but also a guy who can be wrong-footed and exploited by choice dosages of pressure and disguised coverages.
 

Maximus

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I keep seeing Drew Bledsoe in Goff. Some truly majestic throws, but also a guy who can be wrong-footed and exploited by choice dosages of pressure and disguised coverages.
This. BB will confuse him and Goff loses contact with McVay after 15 seconds for each play.