Season on the Line: Dolphins vs Bills Preview

sodenj5

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In what may be, without hyperbole, the most important game of the year for both teams, Buffalo will travel to Miami to face the Dolphins this Thursday night in a matchup that has huge playoff implications for both teams.
Both teams enter this game coming off a loss. Miami fell to the Lions in Detroit, 20-16, with Matthew Stafford delivering the dagger to Theo Reddick in the waning seconds. Meanwhile, Buffalo collapsed at home in the fourth quarter, losing 17-13 to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Heading into Thursday’s meeting, Buffalo has a victory in hand after soundly beating Miami, 29-10, in Buffalo’s Week 2 home opener. Miami played without right guard Mike Pouncey (injury) and strong safety Reshad Jones (suspension), and lost all three starting linebackers ‒ Dannell EllerbeKoa Misi, and Phillip Wheeler  ‒ to injury during the game. Buffalo has dominated Miami of late, winning 4 of the previous 5 meetings including a 19-14 Thursday night home victory in November 2012.
 
http://soshcentral.com/nfl/season-line-dolphins-vs-bills-preview/
 
Would love some feedback on this article, especially from the Fins thread regulars.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Nice article, Sodenj5. I think you did a very good job of trying to keep it objective as a Phin's fan. My only thought was that given it's seemingly supposed to be a neutral article rather than just a Miami focus, shouldn't the Bill's also have a keys to victory section?
 

pdaj

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Great break-down, Josh. I enjoyed it from a Fins' fan perspective.
 
 
  1. Protect Ryan Tannehill. Buffalo’s defensive line dominated Miami’s offensive front in Week 2 and with Albert on the shelf the pressure is going to be on first-round pick Ju’Wuan James. He has played well thus far at right tackle, but is transitioning to left tackle where he’ll assume responsibility for his quarterback’s blind side. There are other moving pieces, with Dallas Thomas getting the first crack at RT and Shelley Smith replacing Daryn Colledge at left guard. This unit needs to congeal very quickly, or Buffalo’s front four will feast.
 
 
 
Miami had some success running the ball in their 1st game with Buffalo -- but it was apparent early on that their plan was to attack the Bills through the air. Tannehill ended up with 49 pass attempts.That can't happen again; for the sake of the team, as well as RT's life. IMO, the Dolphins have to do enough on the ground to keep 3rd downs manageable and Tannehill's pass attempts around 35. If that happens, the offense has a chance.
 
It's unfortunate that Finnegan can't play; I'm not sure what to expect from Taylor. Despite this, I think Miami's defense matches up better vs. Orton and a gimpy Fred Jackson (or Bryce Brown) than they did vs. Manuel and the read-option with Spiller and a healthy Jackson. Miami's front 7 loves QBs who stay in the pocket.
 

sodenj5

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Dernells Casket n Flagon said:
Nice article, Sodenj5. I think you did a very good job of trying to keep it objective as a Phin's fan. My only thought was that given it's seemingly supposed to be a neutral article rather than just a Miami focus, shouldn't the Bill's also have a keys to victory section?
Thanks, man. That's a thought that crossed my mind, but I'm largely responsible for Dolphins content, so I chose to keep it "Fins-centric" if you will. I didn't want it to get too long winded going into detail from both perspectives.
 

sodenj5

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pdaj said:
Great break-down, Josh. I enjoyed it from a Fins' fan perspective.
 
It's unfortunate that Finnegan can't play; I'm not sure what to expect from Taylor. Despite this, I think Miami's defense matches up better vs. Orton and a gimpy Fred Jackson (or Bryce Brown) than they did vs. Manuel and the read-option with Spiller and a healthy Jackson. Miami's front 7 loves QBs who stay in the pocket.
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it. I agree that Finnegan's absence is a concern because Stafford and Tate went right after Taylor as soon as he hit the field with unfavorable results for Miami.

I think Miami matches up well with them this go around, and I actually think playing Detroit will really give them a good blueprint to follow. You can see Lazor's gameplan shifted in the first half and they started to spread the ball out horizontally instead of going vertically. They should start there and work off of that.

Also, to your point about a pocket QB, I made that same point regarding Rivers and look how that turned out. Same can be said for Brady in Week 1. Miami's line is too good for a stationary target not named Manning.
 

dwainw

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Great job, man.  Not surprised, though, since you've always offered strong insight here.  Now the big question is whether I should refer to you as Josh or sodenj.  I guess I'll stick with your SOSH handle.  Also, interesting to hear you're a cat enthusiast.  

Just to add my own half cent: this game is drenched in desperation (which should make it entertaining for those without direct rooting interest).  More from the Dolphins standpoint due to the previous loss to and recent history v. Buffalo, and because a loss would essentially render the coaching staff a lame duck with a playoff berth becoming a near-impossibility.  Since the teams are pretty evenly matched and there's no love lost between them, and because they're both coming off bruising, gut-wrenching losses with a few short days to recover, I think it'll be an attritional slugfest with in-game injuries and coaching decisions being a bigger factor than usual.  I'm calling an offensive output of 13 - 10, with more points likely scored by defenses and special teams, but I'm not going to bother predicting who comes out ahead.  Let's hope it doesn't come down to a last defensive stand either, because neither the coaching staff nor the defensive unit as a whole has inspired confidence in that situation this year.

Oh, and one more thing:  All-Aqua uniforms.  What more is there to say?
 

sodenj5

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dwainw said:
Great job, man.  Not surprised, though, since you've always offered strong insight here.  Now the big question is whether I should refer to you as Josh or sodenj.  I guess I'll stick with your SOSH handle.  Also, interesting to hear you're a cat enthusiast.  

Just to add my own half cent: this game is drenched in desperation (which should make it entertaining for those without direct rooting interest).  More from the Dolphins standpoint due to the previous loss to and recent history v. Buffalo, and because a loss would essentially render the coaching staff a lame duck with a playoff berth becoming a near-impossibility.  Since the teams are pretty evenly matched and there's no love lost between them, and because they're both coming off bruising, gut-wrenching losses with a few short days to recover, I think it'll be an attritional slugfest with in-game injuries and coaching decisions being a bigger factor than usual.  I'm calling an offensive output of 13 - 10, with more points likely scored by defenses and special teams, but I'm not going to bother predicting who comes out ahead.  Let's hope it doesn't come down to a last defensive stand either, because neither the coaching staff nor the defensive unit as a whole has inspired confidence in that situation this year.

Oh, and one more thing:  All-Aqua uniforms.  What more is there to say?
Thanks, man. Really appreciate it. My cat enthusiasm is at a healthy, non-cat lady level.

I think you're right. The fins need this game worse than Buffalo. A sweep by Buffalo would essentially put them 2 games behind the Bills, and they'd have to go to Denver next week on a 2 game skid. Not good.

Aqua on Aqua on aqua. Let's get it done tonight.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Just want to say thanks to Josh for the great article. you always brougt a lot of passion into the Phins thread and as for me loved reading it from a Miami fan's point of view. Tx!
 

sodenj5

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SeoulSoxFan said:
Just want to say thanks to Josh for the great article. you always brougt a lot of passion into the Phins thread and as for me loved reading it from a Miami fan's point of view. Tx!
Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it.
 

Clears Cleaver

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nice article
 
defense cannot get off the field. Offense cannot make a play. Tannehill fumble and decision not to run on third down when he had easy first down on last drive are difference in game. Coaching staff has done a good job with half time adjustments and have to get a stop on Buffalo's first possession
 

Clears Cleaver

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have not heard cam wake or olivier vernon's name mentioned once. and they re not keeping backs or TEs in on every play. just beating them 1x1 a lot of time
 

CaptainLaddie

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Great preview, sodenj.
 
The Dolphins are very good.  All my joking aside, the division isn't wide open but it isn't a cakewalk for the Patriots, so that game in Week 15 is looming large considering the Patriots schedule (Indy, Detroit, GB, SD, Miami).
 
Frankly, if they have similar records or it's close you could see NBC flex that Week 15 game to primetime (Patriots only have 5 primetime games on the schedule, so they can get one more and thats the only one that makes sense), though the game that night is Dallas/Philly so yeah... not gonna happen.
 

tims4wins

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As big of a win as last night was - and it was big - I think Miami's season is going to come down to one more game, and it's not the Pats game. The week before the go to NE they host Baltimore. With @ Denver a highly likely 5th loss next week, Miami won't be able to afford a 6th loss heading into NE.
 

sodenj5

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tims4wins said:
As big of a win as last night was - and it was big - I think Miami's season is going to come down to one more game, and it's not the Pats game. The week before the go to NE they host Baltimore. With @ Denver a highly likely 5th loss next week, Miami won't be able to afford a 6th loss heading into NE.
I said in the Fins thread before the SD game that the biggest remaining games for Miami were SD (win), Buffalo (win), and Baltimore because of their tie breaking significance.
 

dwainw

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Thrilled with this win.  Keeps the team relevant and "extends" the season beyond the Denver game, which now won't be an near-impossible must-win that would likely end their season.
 
A few random takeaways:  Very relieved they came away with no major injuries.  Lamar Miller was impressive.  Yet another strong showing coming out of halftime--and good to see them close a relatively close game without drama.   A few extra (happy) days of rest and preparation and maybe, just maybe, they can go into Denver and shock the world.
 
Looking forward to that Indy/NE game in a big way......
 

tims4wins

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sodenj5 said:
I said in the Fins thread before the SD game that the biggest remaining games for Miami were SD (win), Buffalo (win), and Baltimore because of their tie breaking significance.
 
Yup, if they beat Baltimore I think they're a good bet to be playing in January.
 

soxfan121

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sodenj5 said:
I said in the Fins thread before the SD game that the biggest remaining games for Miami were SD (win), Buffalo (win), and Baltimore because of their tie breaking significance.
tims4wins said:
 
Yup, if they beat Baltimore I think they're a good bet to be playing in January.
 
The Denver game is less of a "guaranteed" loss than most people think, because the Broncos offensive line might be worse than New England's was in Week 1. Their biggest weakness is Miami's strength - that always results in a tighter game than people think. 
 
And yes, if they beat Baltimore they should be playing in January.
 

sodenj5

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soxfan121 said:
 
The Denver game is less of a "guaranteed" loss than most people think, because the Broncos offensive line might be worse than New England's was in Week 1. Their biggest weakness is Miami's strength - that always results in a tighter game than people think. 
 
And yes, if they beat Baltimore they should be playing in January.
That's a good point. Denver has a lot of weapons, but Miami has the top ranked pass defense in the league, and Manning is basically a sitting duck back there. I'm not going to say the Fins have a good chance of winning in Denver, but I don't think they're going to get beaten badly.
 

Clears Cleaver

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They need Finnegan and Will Davis to be healthy for Denver. and Dallas Thomas to not be the starting RT
 
edit: Davis is out for the year. bummer