Second Guesser's Club - Anyone watching?

[absintheofmalaise]

[tablegrid= Probable Starters ]   W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Game 1: 7:10 Anthony Ranaudo RHP 2 0 2 2 12 2.25 3.75 2.25 0.22 85.90% 35.70% 14.30% 4.5 7.13 6.07   Chris Archer RHP 8 6 26 26 157.1 8.41 3.43 0.34 0.305 71.10% 47.80% 4.70% 3.09 3.02 3.54                                   Game 2: 7:10 Allen Webster RHP 3 2 6 6 31 5.23 5.81 0.29 0.292 61.30% 43.30% 2.90% 5.81 4.61 5.57   Jake Odorizzi RHP 9 11 26 26 140.1 10 3.14 1.09 0.312 73.50% 31.40% 9.30% 4.23 3.59 3.64                                   Game 3: 1:40 Clay Buchholz RHP 5 8 22 22 131 6.94 3.16 1.03 0.327 62.40% 46.20% 10.40% 5.77 4.27 4.16   Alex Cobb RHP 9 6 21 21 126.2 8.67 2.7 0.64 0.288 77.30% 57.40% 9.40% 3.06 3.22 3.24                                   Game 4: 1:10 Rubby de la Rosa RHP 4 5 14 14 82.2 6.31 3.38 0.98 0.313 78.60% 46.00% 10.70% 3.81 4.34 4.2   Drew Smyly LHP 3 1 5 5 36 7.25 1.75 0.5 0.178 85.60% 34.80% 5.00% 1.5 2.83 3.49 [/tablegrid]

 

[MuzzyField]

I believe this is the first step.
Hello, my name is MuzzyField and I'm still watching.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I believe this is the first step.
Hello, my name is MuzzyField and I'm still watching.

Only 11 more to go.
 
I'll join you. My name is absintheofmalaise and I'm still watching.

 

[Homar]

My name is Homar and I'm still watching.  But the metaphor is a bit skewed- watching the Red Sox play baseball is not an affliction to recover from, but a grand and glorious pleasure to be delighted in.  There's only one step: keep watching.  

 

[bellowthecat]

Still watching in general, though I'll likely miss tonight and tomorrow's games thank to social obligations (who needs them anyways?).  Hopefully tonight the young Sox pitchers continue their trend of pitching well only when I miss the game.  Interested to see how the Rays approach these young pitchers now that they've been around for a couple months.  Buchholz' starts, however, are nearly unwatchable, even when he's going well.

 

[TheYaz67]

Half shielding my eyes at this point, but yes, still watching as hard as that may be....
 
Just glad to see the kids up and pitching so those of us who haven't seen much of them can have a look/see where we stand on these guys.

 

[IpswichSox]

I'm still watching though not as religiously as before. Tonight I'm looking forward seeing Ranaudo again. Overall, thinking about a protected (maybe) top-five pick next summer does take some of the sting away, at least for me. It's the rings that have made us soft.

 

[mabrowndog]

Really want to keep watching the kids pitch, though with college football underway it's not the same draw.
 
But even with no other notable sports on TV for early Sunday afternoon, there's no effing way I'm subjecting myself to another Buchholz start.

 

[Plympton91]

Still flipping it on if it's close after everyone else is in bed and the work is done. Ranaudo has a 2.25 K/9 ratio. 2.25. Astounding.

Also, next time someone quotes the value of xFIP to me I'm going to give them Clay Buchholz's 2014 as an example of it's usefulness. His is 4.16 this year. Imagine if he was actually pitching that well, instead of the metric just being a huge dose of regression to the mean and a dash of not incorporating line drives?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Submitted for your approval:
 
Holt SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Cespedes LF
Napoli 1B
Nava RF
Betts CF
Middlebrooks 3B
Vazquez C
Ranaudo RHP

 

[mabrowndog]

I'm setting the over/under on WMB's strikeouts tonight at 2.5.
 
And I'm taking the over.

 

[benhogan]

Still watching and liking what I see with Mookie Betts at-bats and Vasquez's arm.  I'm not all that disappointed with CV's bat either, like how he stays inside the ball and goes oppo. Hoping the 1 week off helps Xander have a strong finish to the year. Like seeing Kelly fire in fastballs at 97.  Looking forward to Castillo.  
 
Plenty of things to watch for...

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I miss baseball too much during the winter not to watch as much as I can during the season. As frustrating as they can be, it's baseball and they're my Red Sox. I might be a dying breed, but so be it

 

[E5 Yaz]

I don't understand those who stop watching during times like these. Seeing the new guys in action is alone worth tuning in.

 

[mauidano]

I can't turn away. I'm watching. It's a different approach than last year obviously. I just want to see this team fuck up someone's chances (MFY's).
 
AND I am hoping upon hope that Papi can take Chris Archer out tonight.  Fuck that team over there. Grrrrrrrrr.

 

[benhogan]

I'm setting the over/under on WMB's strikeouts tonight at 2.5.
 
And I'm taking the over.

Agreed, it really feels that awful.
 
I haven't looked at any stats, but his swing and miss % has to be one of the highest in MLB

 

[rlsb]

1984 redux with young pitchers.  Worth watching at least a few innings until the mandatory Tazawa appearance.

 

[Papo The Snow Tiger]

I'm still watching, and will until the last out of game 162. And I always breath a little easier once the Sox get their first hit of the game.

 

[EricFeczko]

Agreed, it really feels that awful.
 
I haven't looked at any stats, but his swing and miss % has to be one of the highest in MLB

WMB's whiff percentage is 116th highest out of 364 hitters with min 150 PA. 69 percent of MLB players (min 150 PA) have better whiff rates.
 
His power ranks much worse: 70th lowest Isolated power out of 364 hitters. 81 percent of MLB players have better isolated power. His slugging percentage is the 19th lowest out of 364 hitters. Almost 95 percent of MLB players (min 150 PA) have a better slugging percentage. He is a league leader in pop-ups. His performance has been  largely driven by a 28.2 % IFFB, good for first in the league. The second place player has a 22 % IFFB rate.

 

[topps148]

WMB's whiff percentage is 116th highest out of 364 hitters with min 150 PA. 69 percent of MLB players (min 150 PA) have better whiff rates.
 
His power ranks much worse: 70th lowest Isolated power out of 364 hitters. 81 percent of MLB players have better isolated power. His slugging percentage is the 19th lowest out of 364 hitters. Almost 95 percent of MLB players (min 150 PA) have a better slugging percentage. He is a league leader in pop-ups. His performance has been  largely driven by a 28.2 % IFFB, good for first in the league. The second place player has a 22 % IFFB rate.

It seems clear that WMB doesn't really belong on a major league roster, but Bogaerts probably doesn't, either.
For the season WMB is 188/264/285 549 in 189 PA.
Over his last 189 PA (going back to July 1), X is 172/222/248 470

 

[Plympton91]

1984 redux with young pitchers.  Worth watching at least a few innings until the mandatory Tazawa appearance.

I'm seeing the young pitchers more in the mode of Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward than of Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst, and of course there's no Clemens anywhere to be seen.

 

[EricFeczko]

It seems clear that WMB doesn't really belong on a major league roster, but Bogaerts probably doesn't, either.
For the season WMB is 188/264/285 549 in 189 PA.
Over his last 189 PA (going back to July 1), X is 172/222/248 470

Perhaps, however, you need to keep in mind that you are comparing a 26-yr old player in his 3rd MLB season to a 21-yr old player in his 1st MLB season.

As an aside, WMB's AAA slash line this year (also a small sample) is 0.231/0.277/0.375; Cecchini's is 0.264/0.313/0.375.
 
I'm not sure WMB belongs at AAA right now.

EDIT: Yes, I'm aware that you are not arguing for WMB at AAA.
 

 

[topps148]

I'm not sure WMB belongs at AAA right now.

I'm not arguing that, either. Frankly, I'm not sure that there's a place for him anywhere, at least in the Boston organization.

 

[darnedsox]

Watching, always watching -but I switch over to another universe more often than usual looking for disaster.

 

[OptimusPapi]

I'm seeing the young pitchers more in the mode of Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward than of Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst, and of course there's no Clemens anywhere to be seen.

If only there was a large sample size

 

[LuckyBen]

I'm seeing the young pitchers more in the mode of Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward than of Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst, and of course there's no Clemens anywhere to be seen.

How many teams have a Clemens waiting in the wing?

 

[OptimusPapi]

Well you know if these pitchers aren't aces then they are bust. Note the sarcasm.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'm seeing the young pitchers more in the mode of Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward than of Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst, and of course there's no Clemens anywhere to be seen.

 
Henry Owens could very well be Bruce Hurst. He just got done putting up the best ERA in the history of the Sea Dogs (eclipsing Jon Lester), and he's currently got 35 Ks in 32 innings in Pawtucket as a just promoted 22 yo. 
 
And, yeah, it's a bummer there isn't one of the maybe five best pitchers in the history of baseball waiting in the wings. 
 
I liked you better when you were on the meds that had you thinking the Sox still had a chance after Clay shut-out the Astros. 

 

[Plympton91]

How many teams have a Clemens waiting in the wing?

Clemens is obviously an unrealistic comparison, but I'd take the 2 of Gausman/Bundy or Paxton/Walker over all 5 that started this year at Pawtucket for instance.

Not sure what stalker means by sample size. Maybe s/he's referencing something like an MLE. I can't imagine that the poor K and BB rates by relatively old prospects are translating to much more than 5th starter lines though. Happy if I'm wrong.

 

[EricFeczko]

I'm not arguing that, either. Frankly, I'm not sure that there's a place for him anywhere, at least in the Boston organization.

I never thought you were; I was just extending your thoughts.
I completely agree. Leave him off the 40 man in November and protect someone more worthwhile.

 

[topps148]

I never thought you were; I was just extending your thoughts.
I completely agree. Leave him off the 40 man in November and protect someone more worthwhile.

We're pretty much on the same page. The related question, being discussed a little in tonight's game thread, is: what does the left side of the infield look like next year?

 

[EricFeczko]

We're pretty much on the same page. The related question, being discussed a little in tonight's game thread, is: what does the left side of the infield look like next year?

I'd have to guess that Xander will get another shot since his clock is started anyways, and early poor performances will make him cheap if he breaks out later on. Cecchini wasn't great this year at AAA, I'd prefer to see another year of seasoning. Before trying him in the majors. Ditto for Marrero. In both cases whoever plays at third/SS next year alongside Xander may only be there for a  year, so signing a free agent like Hanley Ramirez doesn't make a lot of sense.
Since you have Cespedes, Craig/Victorino/Nava, and Castillo/JBJ. The outfield is pretty crowded. I wouldn't be surprised to see the left side comprise betts/holt/xander.
 

 

[joe dokes]

I'm seeing the young pitchers more in the mode of Jeff Sellers and Rob Woodward than of Oil Can Boyd and Bruce Hurst, and of course there's no Clemens anywhere to be seen.

Bruce Hurst  was quite the middling pitcher until his 4th MLB season.
He was dominant at AAA in his last full season there, though. Too bad we can't say that about any of the Sox current prospects as they struggle through the minors and get promoted for no apparent reason other than front office ineptitude.
 
Oil Can Boyd had 3 or 4 good MLB seasons.  His last 2 came 4 years apart. I'd hope the current crop would produce a pitcher or 2 that might do better.
 
OTOH--Given the failure (or the not-a-star-rate) of pitchers (*all* players, for that matter) moving from the minors to the majors, one will certainly be "right" more often by predicting non-success.

 

[Plympton91]

Bruce Hurst  was quite the middling pitcher until his 4th MLB season.
He was dominant at AAA in his last full season there, though. Too bad we can't say that about any of the Sox current prospects as they struggle through the minors and get promoted for no apparent reason other than front office ineptitude.

Which of Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, or De La Rosa would you characterize as having "dominated" AAA this season. What are their MLEs?

Johnson and Owens certainly dominated AA, it will be very exciting to see if they can carry that over to AAA next season.

 

[Byrdbrain]

He specifically says in the post you quote that none of the young pitchers have dominated AAA.
 
 
Edit:Though that may be sarcasm on further review, I'm not really sure.

 

[rlsb]

My comment was an appreciation of watching young pitchers able to learn without the added pressure of a division race since there really wasn't one in the AL East thirty seasons ago.  It is my hope that all of these guys ends up doing well, but I won't even begin to worry about any of them being another Clemens or even Hurst at this point.

 

[mabrowndog]

Hard to believe yesterday's lineup produced 8 runs with Pedroia, Ortiz & Napoli combining for just a single and 2 walks in 16 PA.
 

I'm setting the over/under on WMB's strikeouts tonight at 2.5.
 
And I'm taking the over.

 
I'm happy to have been wrong (2/4: infield single, LD single to CF, infield pop-up, swinging three-pitch K) but even with that second hit there's still no cause for optimism.

 

[Rasputin]

Hard to believe yesterday's lineup produced 8 runs with Pedroia, Ortiz & Napoli combining for just a single and 2 walks in 16 PA.

 
It's been a bit rocky, but the team is transitioning into one where those guys don't have to be the whole offense.

 

[EricFeczko]

 
It's been a bit rocky, but the team is transitioning into one where those guys don't have to be the whole offense.

Pretty much. Moving forward, our starting lineup comprises 6-7 guys that look to be average or better hitters, and 2-3 question marks.
In hindsight, maybe the biggest mistake the FO made this offseason was thinking they could make reclamation projects out of anyone.
They thought Drew (145 PA) would perform despite being signed in the middle of the season, they thought Sizemore could still play (205 PA), they are still trying WMB (143 PA), and I don't know what they were thinking with Herrera ( 105 PA). You include the expected regression from last year's torrid performances, and its not that surprising that the offense struggled. Meanwhile in-house replacements are regressing back to the mean after an unlucky first half (e.g. Nava), or performing well with little evidence of unsustainable performance (e.g. Betts). Bogaerts, CV, and JBJ have been a little disconcerting. However Xander is 21, while CV and JBJ are contributing defensively.
Once you include Cespedes, a healthy Victorino, Castillo, and Holt, however. You've got pretty good depth on offense and insurance for JBJ.

 

[mabrowndog]

Bogaerts has been activated from the concussion DL, but the countermove isn't sending Carlos Rivero back to Pawtucket -- it's optioning Ranaudo to Greenville.
 
Since the Drive have already been eliminated from postseason contention in the South Atlantic League, their season ends Monday. This allows the Sox to recall Ranaudo once rosters expand without the usual 10-day wait (or an injury). Their higher-level affiliates (PawSox, Sea Dogs, SalemSox) are all either playoff-bound or still in the hunt. It's also likely a paper move, so I suspect he'll either remain with the team in Tampa or fly back north to work out with Pawtucket and root them on as they look to clinch a playoff berth at McCoy.
 
Had this move been made during a weekday afternoon, I guarantee we'd have had Felger & Mazz bewildered and questioning why Ranaudo was demoted to low-A ball, then screaming at the front office for their stupidity.

 

[mabrowndog]

Holt 3B
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Cespedes LF
Nava RF
Craig 1B
Betts CF
Bogaerts SS
Ross C
 
Webster, P

 

[mabrowndog]

From the "distinctions not worthy of pride" and the "well, at least they suck, too!" departments:
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 45s
Rays crack PR staff, w/assist from Elias, notes this is only 2d time in a century that Yanks, Sox held to one hit same day
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 1m
Only other time Sox, Yanks held to 1 hit same day was May 26, 1989: Angels' Chuck Finley no-no at Fens until Jody Reed bloop 1b 2 outs, 8th
 
Gordon Edes ‏@GordonEdes 2m
Yankees were held to one hit by Oakland's Todd Burns, Rick Honeycutt, Eric Plunk in Stadium

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Submitted for your approval:
 
Holt 2B
Betts CF
Ortiz DH
Cespedes LF
Napoli 1B
Nava RF
Middlebrooks 3B
Bogaerts SS
Vazquez C
Buchholz RHP
 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Submitted for your approval:
 
Betts CF
Holt 2B
Cespedes LF
Napoli DH
Craig 1B
Nava RF
Middlebrooks 3B
Bogaerts SS
Vazquez C
de la Rosa RHP

 

[MakMan44]

I wonder why Weeks isn't being given some playing time. 

 

[Plympton91]

I don't see anything at NESN.com. No call ups? Not even a 3rd catcher and mop up guy?

 

[Toe Nash]

Steven Wright was recalled. Pawtucket's in the playoffs though, so tough to take their players to have them sit on the bench here.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Weeks getting picked off today was truly brutal. I'd criticize Farrell for putting the new guy in a big spot right away, but, well, it's not a very big spot when you're battling for the fifth draft pick against another team playing out the string. 
 
Also, I guess I get the long-term benefits of the Nava/Napoli/Craig/Papi rotation, but it's creating this false equivalence amongst them and Napoli and Papi should really be playing all the time unless injured. Craig is in a true tailspin. He's 138/242/310 with the Sox so far, and that's actually better than his 122/204/204 he put up in 16 games with St Louis in July. 
 
I know it doesn't matter, but let him watch for a while. 

 

[mabrowndog]

I don't see anything at NESN.com. No call ups? Not even a 3rd catcher and mop up guy?

 
In addition to Wright (today), Ranaudo will be recalled from Greenville (now that their season's over) to start on Wednesday vs MFY. Workman will be recalled to start on Thursday at the toilet.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Which of Workman, Barnes, Ranaudo, Webster, or De La Rosa would you characterize as having "dominated" AAA this season. What are their MLEs?

Johnson and Owens certainly dominated AA, it will be very exciting to see if they can carry that over to AAA next season.

BTW, Ranaudo was named the IL Most Valuable Pitcher so if he didn't dominate AAA I guess no one did. http://nesn.com/2014/08/red-soxs-anthony-ranaudo-named-international-leagues-most-valuable-pitcher/