Second Guesser's Club - Please Win One Game

[ScubaSteveAvery]

The Red Sox head to Atlanta to play the 1st place Braves for two games, and then head to Boston for 2 games.  Here are the breakdowns:
 

Team Stats

Red Sox	Braves
Wins	20	28
Losses	29	21
Win %	0.408	0.571
RS/G	3.98	3.39
RA/G	4.53	3.10
Pyth O/U	-4.5	3.5

 
 
The Sox are underperforming their Pythag, while the Braves are outperforming theirs.  One advantage the Red Sox have this series is that they are meeting a team that happens to be worse at scoring runs than they are.  
 
[tablegrid= Baseball Prospectus Future Projections ]Team Wins Losses Win % RS RA Avg OBP SLG Red Sox 61 52 0.540 535 494 0.259 0.330 0.419 Braves 57 56 0.504 470 462 0.254 0.318 0.412 [/tablegrid]
 
BP still likes the Sox a lot going forward, pegging them for a .540 winning percentage going forward. This makes the assumption that the backend of the rotation comes together, which is still up in the air.  Buchholz will have another chance to prove that he still has something in game 1 this afternoon. 
 
[tablegrid= Pitching Match-Ups ]Game 1                     Pitcher W L GS IP H9 BB9 SO9 ERA FIP FRA Clay Buchholz 2 4 9 47.0 13.60 3.06 6.70 6.32 4.73 4.52 Ervin Santana 4 2 8 52.7 8.72 2.39 8.20 3.42 2.86 3.92                       Game 2                     Jon Lester 4 6 10 67 8.19 2.42 10.21 3.36 2.70 3.06 Aaron Harang 4 4 10 59.7 8.30 2.72 9.65 3.32 2.14 2.89                       Game 3                     TBD                     Gavin Floyd 0 1 4 25.3 9.59 1.78 8.53 2.49 2.85 3.29                       Game 4                     TBD                     Mike Minor 2 3 5 30.0 9.00 2.70 8.10 3.90 4.60 4.64 [/tablegrid] 
 
Santana has faced the Sox quite a bit in his career.  He is 4-3 in 13 career starts against them with a 4.50 ERA. 

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I realized that this is actually a 4 game series, split between Atlanta and Boston. 
 
Atlanta
Game 1: 1:10PM
Game 2: 7:10PM
 
Boston
Game 3: 7:10PM
Game 4: 7:10PM
 
The game 4 starter for Atlanta is Mike Minor and Boston's starter is TBD.  There is no off day in-between changing cities, so hopefully Tuesday's game is a short one, and not the 5 hour, 15 inning suckfest we saw in Tampa. 

 

[jimbobim]

Why Lavarneway ? RH bat can play 1b and i guess platoon with Carp but just seems likes a very meager response to a 10 game losing streak. 

 

[rymflaherty]

Why Lavarneway ? RH bat can play 1b and i guess platoon with Carp but just seems likes a very meager response to a 10 game losing streak. 

 
It's not really a response to losing 10 in a row, it's a response to Mike Napoli going to the DL.
So you answered your own question, and with those things in mind (RH hitter, can play 1b, could provide a bit of pop, experience in the Majors) I'm not sure what the better option would have been, at least in the short-term.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Why Lavarneway ? RH bat can play 1b and i guess platoon with Carp but just seems likes a very meager response to a 10 game losing streak. 

 
What non-meager response would you propose?

 

[jimbobim]

 
What non-meager response would you propose?

 
Adding a serviceable OF  using one of their bevy of SP prospects to do it ( Workman (probably not because starting now and ML experience Webster, De La Rosa, Renaudo, Barnes, )  .
 
Position of Depth for Position of Need. I realize I may be getting tiresome but this OF is the worst in baseball and if the other team scores more then 3 runs this teams chances of winning go into the toilet.  

 

[absintheofmalaise]

The game is on ESPN tonight
 
Sox line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz 1B
Gomes RF
Sizemore LF
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Lester LHP
 
I get the AJP hate, but I would rather have him face Harang tonight than Ross.

 

[Stan Papi Was Framed]

The game is on ESPN tonight
 
Sox line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz 1B
Gomes RF
Sizemore LF
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Lester LHP
 
I get the AJP hate, but I would rather have him face Harang tonight than Ross.

I see your point, though haven't Lester's numbers been a lot better with Ross so far this year?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The game is on ESPN tonight
 
Sox line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz 1B
Gomes RF
Sizemore LF
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Lester LHP
 
I get the AJP hate, but I would rather have him face Harang tonight than Ross.

 
I'm sure Lester's numbers throwing to Ross play a huge role here.  But also, Ross is 4/12 in his career against Harang, including 3 HR.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
I'm sure Lester's numbers throwing to Ross play a huge role here.  But also, Ross is 4/12 in his career against Harang, including 3 HR.

I understand that and I am just basing what I said about AJP starting over Ross on the numbers this year, but it's a pretty huge difference. 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Braves:
 
Heyward RF
BJ Upton LF
Freeman 1B
J Upton CF
Gattis C
Johnson 3B
Simmons SS
Pastornicky 2B
Harang RHP
 

 

[PandaSox]

The game is on ESPN tonight
 
Sox line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz 1B
Gomes RF
Sizemore LF
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Lester LHP
 
I get the AJP hate, but I would rather have him face Harang tonight than Ross.

No Nava against RHP Harang? Yes, Nava is triple-slashing a pathetic .137/.232/.247 slash line. But you have to play him sometime, no?

 

[geoduck no quahog]

My guess is that Lester won't throw to AJP anymore.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

No Nava against RHP Harang? Yes, Nava is triple-slashing a pathetic .137/.232/.247 slash line. But you have to play him sometime, no?

 
And Gomes' numbers vs. RHP (.196/.266/.357) are basically just as bad as Nava's (.160/.276/.320). If he's not going to play against traditional RHP, why is he on the team?

 

[MakMan44]

Because Victorino is back on the DL and there's no other attractive options in AAA

 

[glennhoffmania]

My guess is that Lester won't throw to AJP anymore.

 
The catcher position has been arguably the biggest failure this year.  A sub-.300 OBP and terrible defense so far.  I'd love to understand the thought process behind starting the season with two 37 year old catchers, neither of whom are above average with the bat or glove, and only Lavarnway ready as a backup.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

 
The catcher position has been arguably the biggest failure this year.  A sub-.300 OBP and terrible defense so far.  I'd love to understand the thought process behind starting the season with two 37 year old catchers, neither of whom are above average with the bat or glove, and only Lavarnway ready as a backup.

 
They're actually forming a halfway-decent platoon (Pierzynski .305/.342/.448 vs. RHP, Ross .179/.281/.429 vs. LHP) but they've gotten too many PA against the other sides (Pierzynski especially), particularly in high-leverage situations.

 

[glennhoffmania]

True, Farrell's usage of them hasn't helped at all.
 
Plus the defense has sucked. 

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Back at Fenway tonight and tomorrow night to finish out the four game home and home series with the Braves. Both games start at 7:10 and will also be broadcast on MLBN.
 
[tablegrid= Probable Starters ] W L G GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP LOB% GB% HR/FB ERA FIP xFIP Gavin Floyd RHP 0 1 4 4 25.1 8.53 1.78 0.71 0.333 73.70% 50.00% 10.00% 2.49 3.01 3.01 John Lackey RHP 5 3 10 10 65.1 8.13 1.93 0.96 0.311 74.40% 44.60% 9.90% 3.58 3.28 3.3                                 Mike Minor LHP 2 3 5 5 30 8.1 2.7 1.8 0.279 85.00% 37.10% 18.20% 3.9 4.75 3.58 Jake Peavy RHP 1 2 10 10 60 7.2 4.2 1.35 0.299 76.20% 40.80% 12.20% 4.65 4.8 4.46 [/tablegrid]

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Naver!!
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
Ortiz DH
Pierzynski C
Gomes LF
Sizemore RF
Nava 1B
Bradley Jr. CF
Lackey RHP

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Cobb County Braves - No Gattis or Simmons in the starting line up tonight
 
Heyward RF
BJ Upton CF
Freeman 1B
The other Upton LF
Johnson 3B
Doumit DH
La Stella 2B
Laird C
Pena SS
Floyd RHP

 

[smastroyin]

Is this where we ask how many failed contact plays the Sox are going to run this year before Farrell gives up?

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
AJP DH
Gomes LF
Sizemore RF
Lavarnway 1B
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Peavy RHP

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Cobb County Braves:
 
Heyward RF
BJ Upton CF
Freeman 1B
The other Upton LF
Gattis C
Johnson 3B
Doumit DH
La Stella 2B
Simmons SS
Minor LHP

 

[RedOctober3829]

Ortiz is out of the lineup with his calf issue. AJP is the DH tonight.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Ortiz is out of the lineup with his calf issue. AJP is the DH tonight.

Thanks. Changed.

 

[nattysez]

So they are carrying three catchers and are starting all three.  That seems ill-advised, but I am heartened by the fact that Farrell seems to have figured out that Nava should not play v. lefties under any circumstances.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Batting Pierzynski cleanup against a lefty is managerial malpractice.

 

[glennhoffmania]

So they are carrying three catchers and are starting all three.  That seems ill-advised, but I am heartened by the fact that Farrell seems to have figured out that Nava should not play v. lefties under any circumstances.

 
It's not a big deal when one is playing 1B and can slide over to catcher if needed.  What I continue to not understand is why Farrell thinks that AJP should be hitting in the middle of the lineup, especially against a lefty.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Ortiz is out of the lineup with his calf issue. AJP is the DH tonight.

Ha .. More like ungodly hung over after last night' s party

 

[Coachster]

Line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
AJP DH
Gomes LF
Sizemore RF
Lavarnway 1B
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF
Peavy RHP

 
August 31, 2012. Which line-up is better?
 
Posednick LF
Pedrioa 2B
Ellsbury CF
Ross RF
Loney 1B
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles DH
Ciraco 3B
Iglesias SS
 
By the way, we lost this game 20-2

 

[Plympton91]

If I'd gone to a spring training game and seen that lineup I'd feel like a Marlins fan.

 

[Puffy]

 
It's not a big deal when one is playing 1B and can slide over to catcher if needed.  What I continue to not understand is why Farrell thinks that AJP should be hitting in the middle of the lineup, especially against a lefty.

 
Who knows? It seems like he is maybe trying to spread out the R-L-R lineup without bunching too many LHH around the bottom (AJP, Sizemore, Bradley). Even against a LHP, wouldn't Carp have been a better choice than AJP?

 

[smastroyin]

Ortiz was pretty visibly not running 100% last night.  On the ground ball single he should have been safe by at least two more feet and his running on the bases was not what I would call running.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

And the alternatives are what, exactly?  Three regular starters are currently on the DL, another is working his way to game shape in the minors (while the guy he's ostensibly going to replace is also on the DL), and a fifth was scratched from the lineup with injury.
 
They're running out of warm bodies.  Carp is reportedly banged up as well (foot).  Nava and Herrera are only relatively healthy guys on the bench tonight...neither one jumps out as being all that much better than who's already in the lineup.

 

[Reverend]

 
Who knows? It seems like he is maybe trying to spread out the R-L-R lineup without bunching too many LHH around the bottom (AJP, Sizemore, Bradley). Even against a LHP, wouldn't Carp have been a better choice than AJP?

 
AJP over the last 7: .387/.406/.548/.955 and Carp ain't been all that.
 
I agree that it's probably a lefty-righty progression thing on the placement and he likes the top three as it is.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Those are all reasonable explanations.  I just hate the idea of AJP hitting 4th even if it may be the most sensible option at the present time. 

 

[Reverend]

Ortiz was pretty visibly not running 100% last night.  On the ground ball single he should have been safe by at least two more feet and his running on the bases was not what I would call running.

 
I agree in part. I think he wasn't full out running, but it did look like he was running faster than he has been. I was a bit beyond first base and it looked like after he cleared the bag he sorta grimaced as he walked through to RF.
 
It may well be that the reason he's been running poorly even for him is that he's got nagging stuff and even an approximation of actually legging one out busted him up a bit.

 

[joe dokes]

 
I agree in part. I think he wasn't full out running, but it did look like he was running faster than he has been. I was a bit beyond first base and it looked like after he cleared the bag he sorta grimaced as he walked through to RF.
 
It may well be that the reason he's been running poorly even for him is that he's got nagging stuff and even an approximation of actually legging one out busted him up a bit.

 
 
Could also be the residual of playing back-to-back games at 1B (without even a late inning replacement).  He probably hasn't done that in awhile.

 

[JakeRae]

Carp has no career split but only has 181 PA against LHP and his lack of split is because of an inflated BABIP against LHP. He hits fewer line drives, twice as many infield fly balls, strikes out more, and walks a lot less against LHP. All considered, I'm not sure AJP is actually likely to be a worse hitter than Carp against LHP even though he has been in the past. Considering that AJP is swinging the bat well, I am fine with this choice. I'd rather have better options, but there is logic behind not stacking the teams lefties and righties and there really aren't better offensive options currently on the roster.

 

[Joe Shlabotnick]

Line up:
 
Holt 3B
Bogaerts SS
Pedroia 2B
AJP DH
Gomes LF
Sizemore RF
Lavarnway 1B
Ross C
Bradley Jr. CF

I just threw up in my mouth when I saw this lineup.
Peavy RHP

 

[nattysez]

I assume Lavarnway is hurt or traded, otherwise I don't know why Nava just PH for him, against a lefty, in the fourth inning.

 

[Plympton91]

They just said sore wrist on the broadcast.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I really don't like what Farrell did in the 8th there. First and third nobody out, you're going to let Gomes hit against the smoke-throwing righty and wait to bring in Ortiz when there are two outs against the lefty anyway, to set up Ross vs. a righty?
 
Edit - Toned down the language a bit.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I'm not sure John Farrell could have just managed that 8th inning worse if he tried. First and third nobody out, you're going to let Gomes hit against the smoke-throwing righty and wait to bring in Ortiz when there are two outs against the lefty anyway, to set up Ross vs. a righty?

Who was going to play left if he PH for Gomes?  Carp's foot may be such that he can only play first, not bat or run.
 
EDIT--Nava.  Just figured it out

 

[RedOctober3829]

August 31, 2012. Which line-up is better?
 
Posednick LF
Pedrioa 2B
Ellsbury CF
Ross RF
Loney 1B
Saltalamacchia C
Aviles DH
Ciraco 3B
Iglesias SS
 
By the way, we lost this game 20-2

I say this one will do.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Eck second guessing Farrell's decision to let Peavy pitch the 8th and allow an insurance run.

Good move going to Koji in the 9th of a tie game, of course.