September MLB Thread

axx

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The Reds just narrowly escaped a sweep in Pittsburgh with a 1-0 win and the tying and winning runs in scoring position. With the Padres and Cardinals both off, they move into a tie with San Diego one game out. Now they have to deal with a weekend series against the Dodgers, but then play their remaining games against last place teams except for 2 against the White Sox (who likely will have nothing to accomplish but rest for the playoffs by then).
The Cards are playing the Padres this weekend but the Padres starters are the corpses of Vince Velasquez, Yu Darvish and Jake Arietta. Velasquez was released by the Phillies on Tuesday and the Padres picked him up.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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I don’t know if it was Jim Palmer but whoever said “Sanchez not the greatest defensive catcher…” right before the tying run scored had great timing.
 

jcaz

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The Phillies phall behind 7-0 after 3. Concerned? Nope. Outscore the Cubbies 15-1 over the next 4 innings and now lead 15-8 with nobody out in the bottom of the 7th.
 

ledsox

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Padres win 2 in a row in San Fran Are the Giants finally slowing down? I believe the Braves are next for them.
Wild stat on Tatis Jr. His road OPS is 400 points higher than at Petco. Only .716 at home.
 

bob burda

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Well I’ll be damned. They actually pulled it out.
The Yankees did not play well in that series. Arguably a Brett Gardner bloop hit in the pouring rain is what stands between them and losing 2 out of 3 to the ZerO's.
 

edoug

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I guess they've decided that even if Perez hits them while serving as a DH, they'll count it as being hit as a catcher
Bench played different positions himself. But almost all were when he was catching.
 

E5 Yaz

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Bench played different positions himself. But almost all were when he was catching.
In 1970, when Bench hit 45, 38 were as a catcher
30 of Perez's have come as a catcher

Both were/are great seasons
 

edoug

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In 1970, when Bench hit 45, 38 were as a catcher
30 of Perez's have come as a catcher

Both were/are great seasons
I hate that Bench will have his record broken that way. But Perez has, as you said, been great.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Javy Lopez is the guy getting screwed over. He holds the actual record for home runs by a catcher with 42 in 2003. Todd Hundley is second with his 41 homer season in 1996, then Roy Campanella and Mike Piazza (twice) are the only other catchers with 40 home run seasons.
 

DJnVa

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Fun fact:

Starling Marte has good chance at leading all of MLB in batting average this season. He, however, will not officially win a batting title, as his ABs are split between the AL and the NL.
 

sean1562

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The Giants are having a truly unbelievable season. Their offense is crazy; they have so many of their old core players having renaissance years; you would think the wheels would come off but here they sit at 95-51, with a chance to threaten the franchise win record (106 wins in 1904).

Buster Posey (34) is padding his HoF case with a great season (OPS+ of 141) and he is supported by Brandon Belt (33) who is having a career year (OPS+ of 152) and Brandon Crawford(34), who had seven hits in one game last week, and should finish high in the MVP balloting (OPS+ of 138, 5.0 WAR). Even Evan Longoria (35), who I thought was maybe retired heading into the season, has an OPS+ of 149, although he has missed time due to injury. Their bench is also outstanding, with Lamonte Wade Jr, Wilmer Flores and Darrin Ruf all being very good this season.

Their pitching has also been excellent, which you kind of expect in that ballpark. Kevin Gausman is worth the money and then some as he is a legit Cy Young guy this year, Anthony DeScalafani must think he has died and gone to heaven trading in pitching in Cincinnati for San Francisco, and youngster Logan Webb has had a huge breakout season (ERA+ of 146) and has given them a third above-average starter. The bullpen with Jake McGee, Tyler Rogers and Dominic Leone has also been strong. They are the best team in baseball right now.
Longoria deserves to win a WS. Hopefully he has adjusted and can be a productive player for a few more seasons, he is so close to a HoF career. A WS win with the Giants and two to three more 2-3 WAR seasons gets him there, I think.
 

dynomite

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Totally understand that @cannonball 1729 owes me nothing, but every day I come to the forum looking for his Elimination Thread. It's honestly one of the best reads of the year for me. Hope we get it, understand if we don't.

Man what happened to Yelich? Is he not that good?
It's a sort of sad, confusing story from what I understand. I would expect a long-form ESPN or Athletic profile about his during the offseason.

To remember, by mid-September 2019 he was in the midst of his second breakout season in a row. After going off for .326, 36 HR, and 22 SBs in 2018 and winning NL MVP, he went even further -- in 130 games (!) he was at .329 with 44 HR and 30 SBs. But then on September 10, 2019, he broke his kneecap. And when he came back last season he was not the same guy. Dude hit ~.200 and his OPS+ plummeted from 179 to 110. Came back this year and has been on and off the IL with a mysterious back injury and then COVID, hitting .245 with only 8 HR.

He's STILL only 29. I worry it's a Nomar situation (even more dramatic than his decline, in fact) where an accumulation of injuries can overwhelm even an outstanding young player.

The AL Central is awful, but the big thing for the Tigers this season is that they are starting to see those young arms come into form. Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal have been good this year and will conceivably to improve, and they have more on the way. Their offense really doesn't have anyone I have a ton of faith in being on the team in a few years (maybe Akil Badoo but the jury is still out on him imo) and I think they will have to get lucky on some guys in order to compete next year.
They’re well-positioned to grab one of the big FA shortstops should they decide 2022 is The Year To Return To Contention
The Tigers are at an interesting crossroads.

The bad: They still owe Miggy Cabrera $30M in 2022 & 2023. They still can't really hit (22nd OPS in MLB) or pitch (19th in ERA). And I don't think the AL Central is quite as awful as you're implying. They have to contend with the White Sox, who are likely making a World Series run this year and looking like a juggernaut for the next few seasons (that Eloy/Robert/Anderson/Abreu/Giolito/Lynn core is pretty scary), the Guardians, who were decimated by injuries this season (not just to players but to Tito as well) but in 2022 will still feature one of the deepest rotations in MLB, led by a Cy Young favorite (Bieber/Civale/Plesac/McKenzie/Quantrill is nothing to scoff at, especially given the late season emergence of Sticks McKenzie, no matter who is in the lineup), and I wouldn't be surprised if they're moderate buyers this offseason in the CJ Cron tier.

The good: As you say, with Mize/Skubal/Boyd atop the rotation and a lot of competent hitters in their lineup, they seem to have transcended the Baltimore/Arizona tier of terrible, with more help on the way from AAA in 2022.

Overall: I think the Tigers have to be careful not to turn into the Angels of the AL Central, where they spend just enough money to be in the unhappy middle -- too good to draft upper tier prospects, but not good enough to seriously contend. I think their next actual contention window opens in 2023/24, so if they do sign a big free agent this winter it will be like the Padres signing Machado in 2019: a signal that they plan to be better in the years to come and an advertisement to the 2023 free agent class (someone like Jose Ramirez could be a target?).
 

cannonball 1729

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Totally understand that @cannonball 1729 owes me nothing, but every day I come to the forum looking for his Elimination Thread. It's honestly one of the best reads of the year for me. Hope we get it, understand if we don't.
Well, you're in luck. Firing it up this weekend. Apparently everything in my life was due on 9/15, so I'm just now getting caught up on the world.
 

brandonchristensen

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Totally understand that @cannonball 1729 owes me nothing, but every day I come to the forum looking for his Elimination Thread. It's honestly one of the best reads of the year for me. Hope we get it, understand if we don't.



It's a sort of sad, confusing story from what I understand. I would expect a long-form ESPN or Athletic profile about his during the offseason.

To remember, by mid-September 2019 he was in the midst of his second breakout season in a row. After going off for .326, 36 HR, and 22 SBs in 2018 and winning NL MVP, he went even further -- in 130 games (!) he was at .329 with 44 HR and 30 SBs. But then on September 10, 2019, he broke his kneecap. And when he came back last season he was not the same guy. Dude hit ~.200 and his OPS+ plummeted from 179 to 110. Came back this year and has been on and off the IL with a mysterious back injury and then COVID, hitting .245 with only 8 HR.

He's STILL only 29. I worry it's a Nomar situation (even more dramatic than his decline, in fact) where an accumulation of injuries can overwhelm even an outstanding young player.
Gotcha. Thank you!

I hope he's not another Nomar and can come back and have a productive 5+ years.
 

NYCSox

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I’ll be shocked if the Indians score a run all series. They’ve got the “get first two guys on and do something useless afterwards” down pat.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Totally understand that @cannonball 1729 owes me nothing, but every day I come to the forum looking for his Elimination Thread. It's honestly one of the best reads of the year for me. Hope we get it, understand if we don't.



It's a sort of sad, confusing story from what I understand. I would expect a long-form ESPN or Athletic profile about his during the offseason.

To remember, by mid-September 2019 he was in the midst of his second breakout season in a row. After going off for .326, 36 HR, and 22 SBs in 2018 and winning NL MVP, he went even further -- in 130 games (!) he was at .329 with 44 HR and 30 SBs. But then on September 10, 2019, he broke his kneecap. And when he came back last season he was not the same guy. Dude hit ~.200 and his OPS+ plummeted from 179 to 110. Came back this year and has been on and off the IL with a mysterious back injury and then COVID, hitting .245 with only 8 HR.

He's STILL only 29. I worry it's a Nomar situation (even more dramatic than his decline, in fact) where an accumulation of injuries can overwhelm even an outstanding young player.




The Tigers are at an interesting crossroads.

The bad: They still owe Miggy Cabrera $30M in 2022 & 2023. They still can't really hit (22nd OPS in MLB) or pitch (19th in ERA). And I don't think the AL Central is quite as awful as you're implying. They have to contend with the White Sox, who are likely making a World Series run this year and looking like a juggernaut for the next few seasons (that Eloy/Robert/Anderson/Abreu/Giolito/Lynn core is pretty scary), the Guardians, who were decimated by injuries this season (not just to players but to Tito as well) but in 2022 will still feature one of the deepest rotations in MLB, led by a Cy Young favorite (Bieber/Civale/Plesac/McKenzie/Quantrill is nothing to scoff at, especially given the late season emergence of Sticks McKenzie, no matter who is in the lineup), and I wouldn't be surprised if they're moderate buyers this offseason in the CJ Cron tier.

The good: As you say, with Mize/Skubal/Boyd atop the rotation and a lot of competent hitters in their lineup, they seem to have transcended the Baltimore/Arizona tier of terrible, with more help on the way from AAA in 2022.

Overall: I think the Tigers have to be careful not to turn into the Angels of the AL Central, where they spend just enough money to be in the unhappy middle -- too good to draft upper tier prospects, but not good enough to seriously contend. I think their next actual contention window opens in 2023/24, so if they do sign a big free agent this winter it will be like the Padres signing Machado in 2019: a signal that they plan to be better in the years to come and an advertisement to the 2023 free agent class (someone like Jose Ramirez could be a target?).
Tigers seem really likely to go after Bogaerts next offseason, don’t they?
 

dynomite

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The poor, poor Padres. The Cardinals hit a grand slam in the 8th, they take the first game of this pivotal weekend series in St. Louis 8-2. Blake Snell was supposed to start this one, but after his injury street FA Vince Velasquez took the bump. He wasn't good.

Padres now 1.5 games behind the Cards for the 2nd Wild Card and a half game behind the Reds, with the Phillies somehow lurking only 1 game behind the Padres.

Talk about a 2nd half collapse:
- After beating the Marlins on Friday, July 23rd, the Padres were 58-42 (.580, obviously), just 4.5 games behind the Giants and on pace to win 94 games.
- After losing tonight, the Padres are now 76-71, having gone 18-29 (.382!!), now 19 (!) games behind the Giants. This streak featured two series sweeps by the Dodgers, plus dropping 6 of 7 in back-to-back series in Colorado and Arizona.

Sons of Benito Santiago must be losing their minds.
 
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axx

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Low key PPD on Thursday between Braves and Rockies. Won't be made up unless it has to but the Braves lead is down to 2. Decent chaos potential since the game would have to be made up on Oct 4th and then possibly a division/WC2 tiebreaker. Brewers got to be loving it that they can just cruise to the Central Title while the Braves sweat it out.
 

dynomite

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Tigers seem really likely to go after Bogaerts next offseason, don’t they?
Hinch is their manager, they might be the favorites for Correa this winter at something like 10/280.
It's a good point. I also just sort of wonder what the Tigers' small market "thing" will be, if that makes sense? This is a massive oversimplification that maybe isn’t even based in reality, but within the last 10 years I feel like:

- The Rays "thing" is sort of mixing and matching spare parts with elite young pitchers and ignoring "roles."
- The Royals decided to invest in defense, speed, and bullpen, to pretty spectacular results for a while.
- The Cardinals are the special case, but generally seem to feature aging stars alongside a few talented youngsters to be competent everywhere.
- The Guardians assembled fearsome rotations, then built around 1-2 star hitters (frankly, much like the early 2010s Tigers)

Is any of this fair?

With that enormous ballpark in Detroit I'd be tempted to copy the Royals and Guardians, focusing on the pitching and OF defense and yes, hope a Correa or two drive in enough runs to make you competitive.

I don’t believe Jayce Tingler is signed beyond this season. He is probably managing for his job in these final 14 games.
Yeah honestly unless they win out and win the Wild Card game I can’t see him returning. They already fired the pitching coach. The manager is next.

Given the success the Astros and White Sox have had bringing in old friends Baker and LaRussa this season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Padres being in someone like Buck Showalter or Ron Washington.
 

E5 Yaz

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OMG ... another crushing loss for the Padres ... 3-2 to the red-hot Cardinals ... led 2-0 into the 8th behind Darvish and reliever coughed it up
 

SemperFidelisSox

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Tingler ejected for arguing balls and strikes. A questionable decision to use Pagan in the 8th. I think we saw the Padres season die tonight. Frustration boiling over.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Meanwhile, if the Giants hold on, the Phillies will be only a game behind the Braves
 

Ale Xander

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OMG ... another crushing loss for the Padres ... 3-2 to the red-hot Cardinals ... led 2-0 into the 8th behind Darvish and reliever coughed it up
If Manny Machado went golfing October 4th and someone crushingly took a driver to one of his knees, I wouldn’t be too upset.