Shohei Ohtani's future....

[opes]

We all know this guy is easily the best player in baseball. He's 28yrs old, and if have haven't heard he's a pitcher and a DH. Its quite possible he could be the first winner of the MVP and CYA since 2014 when Verlander won. Now, the real question is when the Angels ultimately collapse before the trade deadline, where will he end up? I figure the Dodgers have been planning for this situation for the last 2 years. In '24, the Dodgers will only have $109,150,000 on the books (https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2024/)
So what say you denizens of SoSH?

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Like you, I think the Dodgers have been planning ahead to reset the cap and clear room. I think he ends up there.

 

[Bozo Texino]

The Yankees and Cohen Mets can afford to throw tons of money at him, but he's been on the record as saying he wants to stay on the West Coast.

I would LOVE to see him end up in Seattle, but I can't see them having the money to make it happen after signing Rodriguez until he's 78. The Dodgers have to be the most likely landing spot.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Folks, the Padres have been big spenders for like ten years now, they're absolutely going to go after him. How are they going to make it work? I have no idea, but they keep finding a way.

The trade deadline this year is a separate question. I want to preface this by saying I would absolutely hate it on every level if it really happens, but... if you're the Rays, why wouldn't you? They can afford him as a rental, and if it costs them a lot of highly-regarded prospects, so what? They've not had a problem finding production from their farm or from other teams' castoffs for the last 15 years.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Folks, the Padres have been big spenders for like ten years now, they're absolutely going to go after him. How are they going to make it work? I have no idea, but they keep finding a way.

The trade deadline this year is a separate question. I want to preface this by saying I would absolutely hate it on every level if it really happens, but... if you're the Rays, why wouldn't you? They can afford him as a rental, and if it costs them a lot of highly-regarded prospects, so what? They've not had a problem finding production from their farm or from other teams' castoffs for the last 15 years.

Apparently the Padres owner also just bought an island off the SD coast so that might just make him tighten up the spending on the Padres..... maybe? But Ohtani will end up with the Dodgers guaranteed 100%.

 

[j-man]

my 02 cents IF he gets traded to a team like the braves he couild stay there a darkhorse is SF the giants have plenly of $

 

[Yaz4Ever]

BOS - $600M/12 years

 

[Bread of Yaz]

BOS - $600M/12 years

Could someone do a Bobby Bonilla type deal to ameliorate the immediate effects on a team's budget - say, $600 million for 30 years? Or has MLB outlawed these arrangements?

 

[Bozo Texino]

my 02 cents IF he gets traded to a team like the braves he couild stay there a darkhorse is SF the giants have plenly of $

It feels like lots of prognosticators have them up there with the Dodgers.

 

[Bongorific]

Has Ohtani said that he would consider teams that weren’t on his list when he signed his first deal?

 

[simplicio]

Could someone do a Bobby Bonilla type deal to ameliorate the immediate effects on a team's budget - say, $600 million for 30 years? Or has MLB outlawed these arrangements?

The Bonilla deal is deferred payments from a 5 year deal back in the 90s, with interest. It didn't affect AAV at all. The name you're looking for is probably Manny Machado (or Xander), but those were structured with some plausible deniability even if neither player is likely to still be playing at age 41. A 30 year contract would be blatant though, and MLB wouldn't allow it.

 

[nattysez]

my 02 cents IF he gets traded to a team like the braves he couild stay there a darkhorse is SF the giants have plenly of $

The Giants have plenty of money because they don't have many good players. Their current management is catching a lot of the same flak as the Red Sox in terms of not seeming to have a very good overall plan. You can count on them being mentioned a lot because their interest will drive up the price for the Dodgers, but I can't see Ohtani going from one franchise that's struggled to get above .500 to another.

 

[LoweTek]

Apparently the Padres owner also just bought an island off the SD coast so that might just make him tighten up the spending on the Padres..... maybe? But Ohtani will end up with the Dodgers guaranteed 100%.

Maybe he bought the island for Shohei?

 

[jon abbey]

AL Hitting Triple Crown (rank)
HRs - 1st
RBIs- 2nd
AVG - 7th

AL Pitching Triple Crown (rank)
Strikeouts- 3rd
Wins - T6th
ERA - 11th

 

[runnels3]

Babe Ruth: 159 home runs in his first 674 career games/ W-L 35-18 in his first 455.0 career innings pitched

Shohei Ohtani: 160 home runs in his first 674 career games/ W-L 35-19 in his first 455.0 career innings pitched[/QUOTE]

 

[brandonchristensen]

Seems highly improbable to be that close.

 

[edoug]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml

 

[santadevil]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml
View attachment 69100

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ruthba01.shtml
View attachment 69101

I'm impressed that Ruth had the same amount of doubles as HR at that point

 

[edoug]

I'm impressed that Ruth had the same amount of doubles as HR at that point

The

I'm impressed that Ruth had the same amount of doubles as HR at that point

I'm kind of impressed with his triples.

 

[shaggydog2000]

I'm impressed that Ruth had the same amount of doubles as HR at that point

I'd guess bigger ballparks would have been a big factor in that.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'd guess bigger ballparks would have been a big factor in that.

Definitely. Triples were much more common back then. League leaders in Ruth's time were routinely in the 20s and sometimes 30s for triples. Nobody since 2019 has hit as many as 10 triples in a year. The last time someone topped 20 triples in a season was 2007 (Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins). Today's ballparks are smaller, leaving less space for defenders to cover which allows them to get to balls faster and prevent all but the speediest guys from getting past second on most hits.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Definitely. Triples were much more common back then. League leaders in Ruth's time were routinely in the 20s and sometimes 30s for triples. Nobody since 2019 has hit as many as 10 triples in a year. The last time someone topped 20 triples in a season was 2007 (Curtis Granderson and Jimmy Rollins). Today's ballparks are smaller, leaving less space for defenders to cover which allows them to get to balls faster and prevent all but the speediest guys from getting past second on most hits.

Jim Rice having 15 triples in back-to-back seasons, 1977-78, has always been an underrated accomplishment for a Red Sox hitter

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Jim Rice having 15 triples in back-to-back seasons, 1977-78, has always been an underrated accomplishment for a Red Sox hitter

Oddly, for how small it sometimes feels, Fenway is probably one of the better parks for hitting triples. Hits to the triangle and hits down the right field line are prime triple opportunities. Fenway is tied for eighth most triples this year (20). Chase Field (38) and Coors Field (35) are the two parks that have yielded the most triples this year.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Oddly, for how small it sometimes feels, Fenway is probably one of the better parks for hitting triples. Hits to the triangle and hits down the right field line are prime triple opportunities. Fenway is tied for eighth most triples this year (20). Chase Field (38) and Coors Field (35) are the two parks that have yielded the most triples this year.

True, but I just don't remember Rice as having the speed -- even when he was younger -- to leg out triples

 

[shaggydog2000]

Oddly, for how small it sometimes feels, Fenway is probably one of the better parks for hitting triples. Hits to the triangle and hits down the right field line are prime triple opportunities. Fenway is tied for eighth most triples this year (20). Chase Field (38) and Coors Field (35) are the two parks that have yielded the most triples this year.

Yeah, compared to how most people think of it, Fenway is a pretty neutral HR (fangraph 100 rating) park but a great park for doubles (113) and triples (116).

 

[E5 Yaz]

This was a fun read about trying to calculate Ohtani's worth:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/38047971/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-calculator-2023

 

[Tokyo Sox]

Jim Rice having 15 triples in back-to-back seasons, 1977-78, has always been an underrated accomplishment for a Red Sox hitter

Headed into the 2012 season there was a good triples trivia question: Who is the only player in MLB to have at least one triple in each of the last 12 seasons?

Spoiler

David Ortiz

This was a fun read about trying to calculate Ohtani's worth:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/38047971/shohei-ohtani-free-agency-calculator-2023

Yeah back on topic, that was good, thanks for posting. An AAV of $50m really does seem like the baseline for him now, doesn't it. 10/500 or 12/600 are both in play. Maybe Steve Cohen decides he has to have him and goes with a front-loaded 20y/1bn offer.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm sticking with 12/720 to the Dodgers and same as Cole and Judge did, Ohtani leaves money on the table (Cohen, maybe SEA, maybe LAA).

 

[nattysez]

The Giants have had disappointing attendance numbers, "finished second" for Harper and Judge and had the Correa blow-up. Their biggest salaries next year as things stand now are Conforto and Haniger at $18 and $19m. They are going to push really, really hard for Ohtani.

 

[Marciano490]

Can a team give him an ownership stake or is that not allowed like in the nfl?

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Headed into the 2012 season there was a good triples trivia question: Who is the only player in MLB to have at least one triple in each of the last 12 seasons?

Spoiler

David Ortiz

Good one. 13 of his 19 career triples at Fenway — I'm assuming most of them into the triangle.

 

[TheGazelle]

Can a team give him an ownership stake or is that not allowed like in the nfl?

Some quick googling indicates that, as of the 2010 CBA, the answer is no barring, potentially, some sort of exemption from the commissioner. There's actually a fun bit of history in the below article about how Rogers Hornsby owned a piece of the Cardinals and was forced to divest when he was traded to the Giants. That situation got sufficiently screwed up to necessitate adding these rules.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/10316/future-shock-why-players-cant-be-owners/

 

[nvalvo]

I think that’s a no from the Wagner Act.

 

[joe dokes]

I think that’s a no from the Wagner Act.

So Wagner could prevent Ohtani from getting a Ring?

 

[canderson]

I’m rooting for SF - seems like a good spot and they seem to have significant cash coming off the books.

 

[joe dokes]

I’m rooting for SF - seems like a good spot and they seem to have significant cash coming off the books.

Given their seasons so far, and if he's willing to head East, the Mets and Yankees will probably start a historic bidding war.

 

[Doug Beerabelli]

Good one. 13 of his 19 career triples at Fenway — I'm assuming most of them into the triangle.

That's a fun stat.

Also, per B-Ref, Ichiro had triples in 11 straight MLB seasons going into 2012. Which was every season he'd played in MLB. He tripled every year from 2001-2017 in MLB.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Given their seasons so far, and if he's willing to head East, the Mets and Yankees will probably start a historic bidding war.

We’ll see if he considers East Coast. With the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, and Padres, all teams with cash, he doesn’t even need to leave the state to drum up a significant bidding war. If he adds the East Coast teams and gets Yankees, Mets, and Sox involved, goodnight.

Of course, he’ll make a killing no matter where he goes so I think “fit” will rule the day here.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Good one. 13 of his 19 career triples at Fenway — I'm assuming most of them into the triangle.

Per Stathead (may need to be subscribed to see the list), I count 5 to RF, 4 to CF, and 4 to LF.

The ones to RF are described as either "Triple to RF (Fly ball to Deep RF)" or "Triple to RF (Line drive to RF line)." In either case, I imagine they got into the corner and rolled around along the wall.

The ones to CF are described as "Triple to CF (Fly ball to Deep CF)" or "Triple to CF (Line Drive to Deep CF)." Presumably those were into the triangle.

The ones to LF are all described as "Triple to LF (Fly ball to Deep CF)." I assume that these were wall balls in left center that caromed away or over the fielders forcing them to give chase and giving Ortiz time to run.

Also, two were in the same game off the same pitcher (Rodrigo Lopez of Baltimore, 7/22/04). I just realized I was at that game. I don't remember the triples at all.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

So Wagner could prevent Ohtani from getting a Ring?

Even if he hits for the Cycle every year.

 

[runnels3]

3-4 last night, 42nd HR
306/407/664

 

[runnels3]

2-5, 43rd HR, 2R, 4 RBI, 3 SO

 

[waffles.]

44th HR. On pace for 58?

Edit: Just pulled from the game on the mound, looks to be some type of injury.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

He’s been having arm issues this year. Is it possible he would be better served in the role of closer in the future? Maybe too many innings on his arm?
Of course that would impact his contract coming up but I’m sure by now most teams realize he won’t be a horse starting pitcher for too long into the deal.

 

[Marciano490]

Out with arm fatigue. Unclear whether he can DH tonight.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

UCL. Fuck. I am taking this harder than I expected. He is the most exciting player in sports, to me. This is awful.

 

[bosockboy]

This winter just changed dramatically.

 

[radsoxfan]

Wow that sucks.

Will be very interesting to see how prospective teams want to proceed in FA (and their medical recs). Ohtani may want to decide on a plan before he can sign....

Shohei will still get a mammoth contract of course as a hitter only, though the crazy 700M+ numbers are probably only if he is expected to be close to full time as both a pitcher and a hitter. The timing of this injury could easily cost him a couple hundred million bucks (maybe the Angels are back in the picture now lol).

If he needs surgery and gets it in Oct/Nov he could probably be back to hit for a decent chunk of next season, but pitching in 2024 would be out of the question.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Ugh. Fuck. What he’s doing is simply too much on the body.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

Goodbye 200-300 million?

He is a true professional playing out his time with the Angels, but with all the starts he's left early, he really should have shut it down a week or two ago.