Should the Red Sox trade Clay Buchholz?
- Thread starter Curll
- Start date
And maybe come up with some reasons pro and con in your opening post so people will have something to discuss.Curll said:
Thought and effort are good things.
My concern with Buchholz is his durability. This combined with the depth of the Sox minor league system in pitching if they are offered a good hitter for him then they should probably make that trade. While not all of the pitching prospects will work out there's a solid chance that Doubront rebounds and RDLR stays effective. But this of course is all tied to resigning Lester.
I'm just not sure this guy will ever stay healthy a full season.
I'm just not sure this guy will ever stay healthy a full season.
A semi-decent run and one great start notwithstanding, his value is at a low point. Additionally, with the uncertainty around Lester and Lackey, I don't think the team can afford to give up pitching with ace potential.
I'm not sure he will ever stay healthy but it doesn't make sense to trade him right now. Maybe next year, if he has shown some health, they've re-signed Lester and some of the prospects keep improving.
I'm not sure he will ever stay healthy but it doesn't make sense to trade him right now. Maybe next year, if he has shown some health, they've re-signed Lester and some of the prospects keep improving.
I voted only if you get blown away. Clay is enigma. Either he's going to stay somewhat healthy and pitch great, in which case he'll be underpaid for the next few seasons, or he'll suck/can't stay healthy, and he might end up a FA after next season. I doubt you'd get anything close to worthwhile in a trade for him, and it doesn't make sense to just move him.
No. It would be selling low in any case. And if they're not going to re-sign Lester I don't think they can afford to do without him. (Edit: they're not going to get "blown away".)
Buchholz has a team friendly contract and as others have pointed out, his value is at his lowest. I could see an off-season trade if he pitches in the second half like he did in 2013, but even then, I don't see much upside. With two team options for $13M, the team has a remarkably flexible contract and for each year to have surplus value, Clay only needs to produce about 2 WAR. Even pitching only 150 innings per year, I would call him a good bet to exceed that. All our cheap depth in AAA makes him even more valuable, as we don't have to rely upon him to pitch 200 innings to keep our playoff hopes alive.
I don't believe that his trade value is anywhere near a low point. He pitched like an ace as recently as the first half of last year, he's healthy and his Ankiel phase only lasted one game. If he struggles the rest of this year and into next year his value will be significantly less than it is today.Toe Nash said:
Having said that, I would not trade him. Pitchers that are capable of acheiving his level of last year are few in number.
The thing with Buchholz is that it is quite possible he could put it together for a full season and be worth $25-30Million for that one year (and more to the point, improve their odds of winning it all). One can't say that about many pitchers but he has had stretches of real dominance (and maybe one day he will have one that runs into the post-season). They need some reliability in the rotation and that's not Clay, but I would be disappointed if they traded him.
Being Clay is the last pitcher in the currently rotation I would expect to see traded:
Most Likely to Least Likely
Peavy - we all know he is gone
Lackey - could net something ridiculous from the Dodgers who love just giving us stuff
Lester - if things are worse than we think
De La Rosa - Florida decides to trade Stanton or the Phillies decide to trade Hamels
Buchholz - in what scenario do you think this happens?
Most Likely to Least Likely
Peavy - we all know he is gone
Lackey - could net something ridiculous from the Dodgers who love just giving us stuff
Lester - if things are worse than we think
De La Rosa - Florida decides to trade Stanton or the Phillies decide to trade Hamels
Buchholz - in what scenario do you think this happens?
ehaz said:
Why would it have been time?
He was coming into the season as the No. 2 starter for the team. The team have a couple of options in AAA but had no one you would have immediately thrown in the rotation. We couldn't get extension on Lester and we had no idea if Lackey was a one hit wonder after surgery. There were tons of questions with Doubront, some with Peavy, and Dempster walked off into the sunset.
Why it is time for Peavy is that we have two starters literally fighting for spots with two more on their heels with one project in AAA and one guy who should be in AAA and another that probably should be in AAA as well.
This offseason we should be dumping a couple of these starters.
In September (if we don't fight our way into contention) you are going to see Lavarnway back up getting ABs, you will see Webster and Ranuado getting IPs and you will see Mookie all over the OF and IF. I could even see Cecchini and Hassan getting ABs
Drew will be gone and Gomes will probably be gone.
These are the signs of the times. Not trading Buchholz after last season
I don't think there is a reason to say absolutely not.
Depends what is offered.
He is one of those guys a GM would be scared of trading though, you know the next season he stays healthy and the delivery stable he will likely be excellent, but it might never happen.
But that upside, you'd need a return that I can't see anyone remotely wanting to give up.
Depends what is offered.
He is one of those guys a GM would be scared of trading though, you know the next season he stays healthy and the delivery stable he will likely be excellent, but it might never happen.
But that upside, you'd need a return that I can't see anyone remotely wanting to give up.
Trade him for a bag of balls if another team is willing to eat his entire contract - which for now is 12 mil next year with 13 mil club options to follow.
Of course this is right after the game and he pissed me off. So there is emotion involved. Sort of.
Of course this is right after the game and he pissed me off. So there is emotion involved. Sort of.
No one is going to pickup his contract right now. We should keep him and see if there is a bounce back.
Zero benefit to trading him. No one's going to give up anything of value for him, and he's got the rest of the year plus ST to sort out his massive suitcase full of mutually compounding problems. Shame there isn't a Tommy John-style brain surgery. Just go on and graft Mirabelli's self-regard on in there.
But if Clay's pitching like this in late May 2015, then ship him out for a bucket of balls (or a low-minors lotto ticket, if you're lucky).
But if Clay's pitching like this in late May 2015, then ship him out for a bucket of balls (or a low-minors lotto ticket, if you're lucky).
He needs a phantom DL trip so he can rehab in the minors. At this point he should be focused on getting his strength back and not overextending himself. Keep him on an 80-100 pitch limit rest of the season and give him a shot in ST to come back healthy and strong.
I would put him on the DL through August, and have him follow a strength and conditioning program. I would then give him 3-4 starts to hopefully end the year on a good note.
j44thor said:
At this point, isn't the rest of the season essentially "the minors"? They've got 51 games left in a season in which they're hopelessly out of contention and jettisoned 4/5 of their Opening Day rotation. There's no reason Buchholz can't "rehab" by taking the ball every fifth day for the Red Sox for the rest of the year.
A DL trip for what? I am just as aware of the Hellenic flu as anyone, but the issues are not physical. Watch him. Watch him scared to death to come anywhere near the strike zone with a competitive pitch. It's not about strength. It is, frankly and directly, about his softness. The DL won't fix that, the minors won't fix that. Until he trusts himself to pitch against big league hitters, he won't.
He doesn't trust himself. Ok. But why? Is it mental? Can't help that. Or physical? Perhaps there is a fear of injury with his delivery so he avoids stressing his shoulder, elbow, whatever.
My $ is on he is worried about injury and is attempting to establish a "new" delivery.
If it were my call I would send him down and give his starts to someone else.
My $ is on he is worried about injury and is attempting to establish a "new" delivery.
If it were my call I would send him down and give his starts to someone else.
To be fair, considering that most of the stuff that he throws over the plate gets hammered, I don't blame him for avoiding it.someoneanywhere said:
bobesox said:
Again I have to ask why do people keep suggesting this? The season is lost. There's absolutely no harm in letting him figure things out every fifth day right where he is. Winning games at this point is ancillary to letting the young and/or scuffling guys figure things out and show the team something positive heading into next season.
Besides which, the only way to "send him down" is to put him on the DL. Made up injury or not, he'd have to be shut down for at least a couple weeks for the DL stint for the whole thing to not look conspicuous and draw the attention of the league. By the time he started ramping back up in his "rehab" starts, we're talking two, maybe three starts before the mL season comes to a close and he's back on the big league roster. Why waste that time if he's not physically injured?
Bingo.
I know it's game threads, but take a look at last night's.
It's really hard for some people to accept the fact that (despite the necessary Farrell PR) this team is NOT as focused on winning games as it is in preparing for 2015. There was no good reason to pull Buchholz last night (unless you want to see how Wright would do against the Yankees lineup). OK, there was one good reason - to make fans feel better about beating the dreaded Yankees, who will now feel even more pressure to rush injured players back and blow out their staff on pursuing the grand prize of 2nd WC down the stretch.
Let all of these struggling guys work it out against ML competition...why not? Let the vets enjoy pursuing stats and watching the kids play (while avoiding injury). Build something for next year.
I, for one, find some comfort in watching this team out of the race (as opposed to the excruciating experience of 2012). Baseball's a wonderful and entertaining sport and there will be plenty of great plays and surprise victories for the Red Sox down the stretch, all without the stress. Last night's game thread should have been the funniest one of the year. Instead it was, like Buchholz, full of angst.
I know it's game threads, but take a look at last night's.
It's really hard for some people to accept the fact that (despite the necessary Farrell PR) this team is NOT as focused on winning games as it is in preparing for 2015. There was no good reason to pull Buchholz last night (unless you want to see how Wright would do against the Yankees lineup). OK, there was one good reason - to make fans feel better about beating the dreaded Yankees, who will now feel even more pressure to rush injured players back and blow out their staff on pursuing the grand prize of 2nd WC down the stretch.
Let all of these struggling guys work it out against ML competition...why not? Let the vets enjoy pursuing stats and watching the kids play (while avoiding injury). Build something for next year.
I, for one, find some comfort in watching this team out of the race (as opposed to the excruciating experience of 2012). Baseball's a wonderful and entertaining sport and there will be plenty of great plays and surprise victories for the Red Sox down the stretch, all without the stress. Last night's game thread should have been the funniest one of the year. Instead it was, like Buchholz, full of angst.
bobesox said:
No, my friend. It is not about establishing a new delivery. It is not about worry over injury. It predates, and pre-exists, all that, and is part of the package -- the slow pacing, the odd sequencing, etc. -- that have plagued him since he came to the major leagues. The major question with Bucky has never been stuff. It has always been makeup and inconsistency, and you are seeing that rear its head again; it bodes to become worse, not better, in the absence of the horses like Lester and Lackey in front of him to take the pressure off of him.
Pitching begins with mentality, and mentality can indeed -- and is, indeed -- taught and developed. The difference between the 3/4/5 guys and the front line guys, the aces, is not merely stuff and ability, but mentality and approach, and those things are learned and acquired as a pitcher matures in pro ball.
I don't necessarily believe that his struggles are due to some flaw in his character (Yeah, I know that if he comes over to visit it would be wise to hide the laptops). Pitchers are different and it might be harder for him to maintain his release point than it is for others, especially when he is trying to throw 5 different pitches.
It might be a situation where thinking about something that used to come naturally only makes it worse. Anyway, the season is shot so I would keep sending him out there until at least early next year.
It might be a situation where thinking about something that used to come naturally only makes it worse. Anyway, the season is shot so I would keep sending him out there until at least early next year.
geoduck no quahog said:
How about he was over 100 pitches and over half of those where thrown in high stress situations.
The majority of this team is not going to stop trying to win games and for the most part they are going to be managed that way as well. Clay needs an environment right now where all he is focused on is executing pitches, results be damned. I don't know the best way to get him there but I don't think taking the ball every 5th day is the best plan at this point.
There's not much else you can do, at this point.
He clearly has issues to work out, but after his comments following his last DL/rehab stint I find it hard to believe he'd agree to be DL'd again.
EDIT: Although I may be wrong in assuming he has a choice int he matter.
He clearly has issues to work out, but after his comments following his last DL/rehab stint I find it hard to believe he'd agree to be DL'd again.
EDIT: Although I may be wrong in assuming he has a choice int he matter.
He's not part of this team's plan going forward (past 2015), and his warts (durability, mental lapses, inconstancy, eroding velocity) aren't worth the potential anymore. He's had his shot; time to get him off the roster. Getting him off the 40 man alone is a worthy trade return in itself IMO.
Overreaction, probably. He sucks so bad right now its hard to have any kind of optimism that he can ever be trusted again. Unless he's actually injured and we can rebuild him ala Lackey...
Overreaction, probably. He sucks so bad right now its hard to have any kind of optimism that he can ever be trusted again. Unless he's actually injured and we can rebuild him ala Lackey...
I think you are onto something, and I think if he were pitching to a Varitek or Crash Davis, the catcher might be able to pull him through a game if all the stars were properly aligned. Christian Vasquez doesn't have the reputation going for him,so it's harder for Buchholz to stop thinking and pitch.someoneanywhere said:
Where are the Astros when you need them?
Could it be that success breeds more success? Was the defense behind him better in 2013, which led him to be more confident and better able to execute on the mound?geoduck no quahog said:
(No answers. Just questions,)
It's all mental with him at this point. Once something goes against him in an inning, he doesn't possess the toughness or confidence in his abilities to get himself out of trouble. He was one strike away from getting out of the game with the lead and couldn't get the last out until after surrendering 3 runs. The height of unacceptable is getting staked to big leads and giving them up the following inning. Most of his mistakes are self inflicted with walks which speaks to the lack of confidence to throw strikes. DLing him does no good because hell develop false sense of confidence if he does well in AAA. Let him sink or swim in the majors. Don't let him off the hook that easily in a lost season.
Wasn't he really close with the Portland pitching coach? Could they bring him to Boston on a mutual offday or something for a consult?
geoduck no quahog said:
What needs to be explained? He had a great two and a half months? We are talking about a guy with the stuff to be a #1 guy. That's how good he is, as he showed in those starts. The issue is not whether he is capable of doing it, it is whether he is he is capable of sustaining it. And that is part as much mental, about focus and commitment, as it is physical.
Here is a link to an interview with Pedro today on EEI. It speaks exactly to what I am trying to get to.