That's a reason to excuse Bogaerts' performance last year and look forward to him improving with the year of experience, not to downplay how good Betts was.Savin Hillbilly said:
Should the Sox extend Mookie?
- Thread starter MakMan44
- Start date
Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yes. That's my point. Your original post seemed to intimate that because of one day he was no longer eligible. I was pointing out that his ABs had sent him over long before that.
If that wasn't what the original point was, never mind.
DrewDawg said:
Ah, you're missing the part about when rosters expand. He needed to exceed 130 ABs before September 1st. As of August 31st he had 85 (97 PAs). It was the days on the roster that put him over.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
But the language of the rule seems to imply that the September 1st deadline (i.e., the "period of 25-player limit") is only relevant to the 45-days-on-active-roster part. The 130 PA part applies regardless of when the PA were accumulated. At least if that's not true, they need to rewrite it for clarity, and put the part beginning with "during the period" up front, before the (a) and (b) clauses. Quoting again:
It's 130 PA regardless. My only point about Mookie is if he could win ROY in 2015, he would easily be one of the favorites. Had he kept his prospect status, he's easily one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball. How is that not a leading candidate for ROY?
Elite tools are different than plus tools, and while I happily stipulate that I believe Betts has developed into a player with plus tools in the hit department and the speed department, I doubt you'd get many scouts to hang plus grades on his arm or his glove. He didn't have enough arm to play 2b or ss, and while his glove at those positions might be adequate-by all accounts he was a very good fielder for 2b, it's hard to get an accurate feel for his work in the OF because of the small sample of games he's actually played out there (less than 100 in his entire career). I will gladly agree that Betts has a plus hit tool and plus speed. Neither tool is considered elite (or plus-plus), and never will-from a scouting perspective. That doesn't mean Betts can't put up .310/.390/.500 peak seasons with 50 SB, it only means that his raw tools don't project that ability-or at least they didn't when he was drafted.Snodgrass'Muff said:
To clarify: I am a huge Betts fan, and an admitted homer when it comes to making him both the CF for this team, and the face of the franchise moving forward (after Ortiz and Pedroia retire). My point in making the comment about him not being a first round pick or a very toolsy player was to illustrate that such guys who develop into players that are better than their draft position or their tools say they can be might be more inclined to mitigate risk and accept a long term deal early in their career. That was the only reason I suggested that Betts' profile was different from the top prospects in terms of tools and pick level, and why I believe he'd be amenable to taking a deal that paid him handsomely for the hard work he's put in to make himself the very promising player that he is right now.
And yes, I meant Betts' representation, not ownership. Very bad choice of words in my original post.
I don't know if current management thinks about this stuff, but there used to be a pecking order in extending players, and I wonder how Bogaerts would take it if the Sox extended Betts first.
Yes and presumably to get a Boras client to sign an extension would either take committing to FA length and money now or else very little discount and no extension of team control. Betts is represented by Stephen Veltman so presumably would take a reasonable discount for the security of an extension. Ideally the Sox could sign all of Bogaerts, Betts and Swihart to extensions at a discount so that they come out ahead if one of them turns into a 4 win player like the Astros are - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25811, but Betts seems like the only one who is likely take a deal.Rudy Pemberton said:
A bit off topic, but it's a pretty good bet that X man tests the market when he can and doesn't sign an extension prior to that point. I mean,his agent is the devil.
Good article on Fangraphs today about him and his projections...sorry, didn't want to create a new thread, and his minor league page doesn't seem fitting for this anymore.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-to-make-of-mookie-betts/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-to-make-of-mookie-betts/
I love that Mookie had an awesome day yesterday and it is probably the fourth story that the media is focused on, behind the days of Pedroia, Hanley and Clay. Ho-hum.
brandonchristensen said:
Amazing how many players are exactly 6' tall compared to, say, 5'10" or 5'11". What a coincidence...
Regarding Mookie's extension: I'd absolutely approach his representatives to see what it would take to get him locked up through arbitration and his first few years of FA. If he's at all defensively sound in CF (and early accounts of his ability out there are very positive), his offensive profile compared to other CFers is going to be very expensive. From Mookie's perspective, it would certainly create desired security, something a former 5th round pick who has made himself a highly valuable asset should be interested in.
I have no idea what the numbers should look like, but getting him to commit to something long term looks good from here.
I have no idea what the numbers should look like, but getting him to commit to something long term looks good from here.
Mookie Betts Sparking Red Sox With Excellent Instincts, Natural Ability
Nesn's headline seems right out of Key and Peele's superbowl show.
Nesn's headline seems right out of Key and Peele's superbowl show.
Until that sketch, I had never noticed this before but I'm seeing it everywhere.reggiecleveland said:
Love Betts' ability to win games in multiple ways. And, frankly, so far the only entity who doesn't like him is BABIP. Betts has seemingly had a rocket lineout to an outfielder every game. Once BABIP starts to smile on him he'll be a true force.
He destroys inside pitches so completely that it would seem like the only worry is that he doesn't show discipline and swings at a never ending cascade of shit pitches down and away.
The catch he made on opening day off Harper was fantastic and if he planned it the way he might have, it was freaking brilliant. Over and over you see guys jump right next to the bullpen walls and come down hard on their ribs hurting themselves. Betts jumped while he was still 2 feet short of the wall so that he could come down without screwing up his ribs.
I would absolutely try to work a deal that, with options, would get into his free agent years if Betts' agents would do it.
He destroys inside pitches so completely that it would seem like the only worry is that he doesn't show discipline and swings at a never ending cascade of shit pitches down and away.
The catch he made on opening day off Harper was fantastic and if he planned it the way he might have, it was freaking brilliant. Over and over you see guys jump right next to the bullpen walls and come down hard on their ribs hurting themselves. Betts jumped while he was still 2 feet short of the wall so that he could come down without screwing up his ribs.
I would absolutely try to work a deal that, with options, would get into his free agent years if Betts' agents would do it.
When Ellsbury did that he was called him shy. I would say the kid just got to the ball the only way he could. My take on why guys don't jump sooner is that it is not very often they catch up to balls like that. I am glad Tory Hunter never thought of jumping sooner.
jasvlm said:
I went looking for an answer to whether high draft picks were less likely to sign extensions but could not find very much. Ben Lindbergh on Baseball Prospectus broached this as a potential research subject but I couldn't find an answer:
[SIZE=13.3333330154419px]http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19886[/SIZE]
Mookie Betts had a signing bonus of $750,000 so he does seem like a prime candidate for an early extension.
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2015/4/24/8470493/mookie-betts-red-sox-prospect
I loved reading this piece on the making of Mookie. I really hope Boston doesn't change him. He seems like such a good kid.
I loved reading this piece on the making of Mookie. I really hope Boston doesn't change him. He seems like such a good kid.
Mookie is quietly red-hot: in 12 games since April 26 he is batting .320/.404/.660, and for the season as a whole he has passed David Ortiz for #4 on the team in OPS for guys with 90+ PA (i.e., at least 3 per game).
The encouraging thing is that this hasn't been driven just by a few monster games, but by consistent offense. Over that 12-game span he has only gone hitless once (and in that game he had a sac fly); he has a 1:1 K:BB ratio (now seven straight games without a K); and he has twice as many XBH as strikeouts.
Sure, it's just a 2-week hot streak, but this is the guy we saw last year. Contact, discipline, surprising power for his size. And he continues to play solid CF.
Extend! Extend!
The encouraging thing is that this hasn't been driven just by a few monster games, but by consistent offense. Over that 12-game span he has only gone hitless once (and in that game he had a sac fly); he has a 1:1 K:BB ratio (now seven straight games without a K); and he has twice as many XBH as strikeouts.
Sure, it's just a 2-week hot streak, but this is the guy we saw last year. Contact, discipline, surprising power for his size. And he continues to play solid CF.
Extend! Extend!
Yes - extend him while he is the best .242 hitter in baseball!
I predict he will end up somewhere like .280/.350/.430
With 25 steals and hopefully 90 runs scored if the big dudes hit a little bit
I wonder where that would place him among ML CF'ers
I predict he will end up somewhere like .280/.350/.430
With 25 steals and hopefully 90 runs scored if the big dudes hit a little bit
I wonder where that would place him among ML CF'ers
Dahabenzapple2 said:
He's slugging over .430 now. I don't see that remaining there once his BABIP normalizes to the low .300's.
I'm being conservativefoulkehampshire said:
Point being even with a .780 OPS as a centerfielder he would be top 5 (?) at 22 years old. He pumps up the numbers if he keeps up his high contact rate and he could be .300/.380/.460
Who are the CFers with .840 OPS? McCutcheon, Jones - who else?
Then he's an all-star/future dominant force.
The answer in these cases is pretty much always … sure, as long the discount is enough to make up for the amount of security you are giving to the player. How much of a discount the team needs is of course based on the risk profile of each player (both injury and performance).
I think Mookie is low risk (non-pitcher, athletic, good minor/major league track record, traditional scouting and the metrics both love him), as far as guys who only have 350 major league plate appearances go. So I would love to extend him, and don't think the Sox need as big of a discount as you'd want if you locked up a pitcher this early, especially if you get a couple team options for his first couple of FA years.
At the same time, it's entirely possible Mookie's agent knows all those things too. If Mookie's agent thinks he's 5+ WAR guy over the next 5 years, isn't interested in including any FA years, and doesn't put much value on long term security, it will be hard to come up with a deal.
Hopefully Mookie just wants to get a deal done, be set for life, and not have to think about his contract for awhile. If he puts some value on those things, an extension would be great. But if you just have to guarantee him the top of the market arb numbers in advance, and don't get any FA years included, an extension doesn't make much sense (obviously). As good as it seems like he will be, there is always a chance Mookie gets hurt or underperforms our lofty expectations.
I think Mookie is low risk (non-pitcher, athletic, good minor/major league track record, traditional scouting and the metrics both love him), as far as guys who only have 350 major league plate appearances go. So I would love to extend him, and don't think the Sox need as big of a discount as you'd want if you locked up a pitcher this early, especially if you get a couple team options for his first couple of FA years.
At the same time, it's entirely possible Mookie's agent knows all those things too. If Mookie's agent thinks he's 5+ WAR guy over the next 5 years, isn't interested in including any FA years, and doesn't put much value on long term security, it will be hard to come up with a deal.
Hopefully Mookie just wants to get a deal done, be set for life, and not have to think about his contract for awhile. If he puts some value on those things, an extension would be great. But if you just have to guarantee him the top of the market arb numbers in advance, and don't get any FA years included, an extension doesn't make much sense (obviously). As good as it seems like he will be, there is always a chance Mookie gets hurt or underperforms our lofty expectations.
radsoxfan said:
This is all good sense, and I don't think anybody (or not many bodies, at any rate) would advocate for the Sox going out on a market limb for Mookie at this point. But if he's available at a more or less down-the-middle market contract for a player in his position, the Sox should make it a priority to get that done.
Savin Hillbilly said:
But that's why these things are always so much more complicated that "yes or no". I'd extend Xander, Mookie, heck even JBJ. Basically anyone if the numbers are right.
ZIPS and Steamer have Mookie as roughly a 3 win player in 110-120 games played this year. The error bars on anyone this young, even a good bet like Mookie, are very large. But if you want to take those as a 50th percentile projection, you have to assume over a 5 or 6 year deal for ages 23-28, you're looking at someone conservatively worth 4-5 WAR/season. I'm not sure what the expected arb numbers are for someone like that, but thats what I assume Mookie and his agents want guaranteed. And you could argue that for any FA year bought out, thats worth 25-30M/season. So suddenly you are getting into some pretty big numbers.
I'm not sure what you mean by "down-the-middle market contract" exactly, but there is a chance that getting an extension done means spending a ton of money. Not necessarily the wrong thing to do, but it only makes sense if the the Sox are getting at least a decent discount in return for the security they would be giving him.