Sizing up the O-line

[Super Nomario]

I (along with several others) commented in the draft day threads that the new OL the Pats drafted (Bryan Stork from Florida State, Cameron Fleming from Stanford, and Jon Halapio from Florida) are different than the players the Patriots traditionally draft, especially for the interior OL. Guys like Mankins, Koppen, Wendell, Steve Neal, Connolly, Donald Thomas, etc. have typically been between 6'2" and 6'4" and between 295 and 310 pounds, towards the small size for OL. They've typically been athletic though, posting good stats in Combine drills like the vertical leap, 3-cone, and short shuttle.
 
The new guys are different. Stork was the second-heaviest C at the Combine at 315 pounds, and one of the taller ones at 6'4". He didn't do many Combine drills, but his Pro Day 40-time (5.44) and short shuttle (5.02) would have been worst, and his 26" vertical was also towards the low end. Fleming is massive at 6'5" 323 pounds, and his vertical (23.5"), 3-cone (8.24) and short shuttle (5.00) were all worst among OT at the combine. Halapio is another mountain at 6'3" 323, and his 21.5" vert and and 8.26 3-cone were worst among all OL at the Combine. They're definitely different players than we're used to seeing.
 
Why? I can think of a few explanations (see poll):

• New OL coach Dave Deguglielmo prefers a different type of OL to the departed Dante Scarnecchia. This ties into:
• A switch to man / power blocking scheme. Like with everything else the Pats do, it's an oversimplification to call them a zone blocking team, as they use man / power concepts and plays at times. But the athleticism they're traditionally looked for is ideal for ZBS. Deguglielmo has mostly run man / power, so that might be part of the plan. Halapio definitely fits the part of a man/power guard and not a ZBS one, and Fleming comes from Stanford, which is famous for its man / power scheme.
• It could be more passing-game related. We all know that when the Pats' offense has looked worse, it's been because of middle pressure on Brady. They may feel that bigger guys will hold up better in pass protection.
• It could be a "Moneyball" play. More teams seem to be looking for quickness and athleticism in the OL, so Belichick may see throwback OL like Stork, Fleming, and Halapio as an undervalued asset nowadays. By zigging while other teams zag, they may be able to build an effective offensive line on the cheap (in this case, without using any day 1 or 2 draft picks).
• It could be experimentation. In his chat, Matt Waldman noted that the Pats seemed to be trying to "cast a wide net" at WR last offseason, drafting / signing dissimilar players in Dobson, Thompkins, and Boyce (and T.J. Moe and Mark Harrison) and seeing what worked. They could be trying the same at OL. They already have smaller / quicker guys in Connolly, Wendell, and second-year players Josh Kline and Chris Barker; they might be looking to add another style of player to the mix to see what works.

What say you, SoSH? And who ends up winning the C / RG jobs (I assume LT, LG, and RT are settled)?

 

[ZMart100]

From the press conference:

Q: Those three linemen – do you think if Dante Scarnecchia was here it would be the same thing or is there any scheme change now that Dave DeGuglielmo is here?

BB: No, I don't think it's about the coaching; I just think it's about player selection and how it felt. I don't think we planned on – we definitely didn't plan on it, but it's just the way it turned out.

I see no reason to doubt this

 

[Pandemonium67]

It could be more passing-game related. We all know that when the Pats' offense has looked worse, it's been because of middle pressure on Brady. They may feel that bigger guys will hold up better in pass protection.
 

I'd put my money on this. If JG is indeed the Heir Apparent due to ascend after a few more years of Brady, the Pats will maintain an offense based around a mostly traditional pocket passer rather than a new-age scrambler.  And we've seen too many times how a good interior pass rush can blow up a pocket (Peyton is still having nightmares).  From that perspective, the big bodies up front look like a potential antidote.

 

[Super Nomario]

From the press conference:

I see no reason to doubt this

Thanks for that link. Also germane is:
 

 
Look, we're trying to draft guys that are good football players and size is a part of it, but it's not like we're going to sit there and say, ‘We can't take a guy that weighs much or that much.' Weight's not always an indication of playing strength.

Seems like more related to the "value" option in my OP; the guys they ended up drafting were guys they had highly-rated that were there when they picked. Then again, I don't know if Belichick would really come out and say, "we wanted to get bigger on the OL."

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I definitely don't think its primarily due to DeGuglielmo's arrival.  I just don't see Belichick signing off on a new OL philosophy, which potentially has a lot of repercussions for the offense including the play calling, primarily based on the tendencies/sympathies of a brand new and relatively young OL coach.
 
My guess is that Belichick has seen what the rest of us has seen - smaller interior OL guys getting ragdolled in some key spots in big games - and is simply adjusting a little bit.  Its also possible that we're making a little too much of these selections.  Stork had some crappy combine numbers but numerous scouting reports have his ability to get to the second level as a plus, so maybe the coaching staff thinks his playing quickness is perfectly fine.  Fleming is big and slow for a guard but if they see him as an RT then his numbers don't really stand out as much there.  Even in ZBS, the RT doesn't necessarily need to be all that quick and agile.  Halopio is a 6th round pick and who knows what the hell really goes into that kind of selection.
 
My guess is that Cannon wins the RG spot, Connolly gets cut, and Wendell starts at C but Stork is given every opportunity to supplant him over the course of the season and eventually does.  Fleming is the backup RT (if Solder gets hurt, Vollmer flips to the left side) and Josh Kline is another backup interior guy who makes the 53 man roster but is usually inactive on game days.

 

[ZMart100]

Expanding on my first post, I know they have a height-weight standard for each position from the Nick Caserio 2011 pre draft video. I interpret "we definitely didn't plan on it" to mean the standard hasn't changed and that the selections were about value. In the past, BB has been pretty forthright when asked about changes in philosophy, for example at safety, so I take his statement at face value. I don't see any competitive advantage post draft from trying to hide a change in their standards.

 

[Super Nomario]

I definitely don't think its primarily due to DeGuglielmo's arrival.  I just don't see Belichick signing off on a new OL philosophy, which potentially has a lot of repercussions for the offense including the play calling, primarily based on the tendencies/sympathies of a brand new and relatively young OL coach.

I guess it would be more the other way around - they aren't changing philosophies because of DeGuglielmo, but they might have hired DeGuglielmo because they want to change philosophies, and the draftees are also related to the shift.
 

My guess is that Cannon wins the RG spot, Connolly gets cut, and Wendell starts at C but Stork is given every opportunity to supplant him over the course of the season and eventually does.  Fleming is the backup RT (if Solder gets hurt, Vollmer flips to the left side) and Josh Kline is another backup interior guy who makes the 53 man roster but is usually inactive on game days.

This is pretty plausible. Cannon could also flip; they used him at LT last year at times. Or they could kick Mankins outside and play Kline at LG, which they also did last year.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Figuring this out now seems a bit premature given the information we have. I think Cannon will win the RG spot and Wendell will be our starting center. By week 10? Who knows what will happen (injuries, how these new guys perform) but given as I don't think much of Wendell I would like a large body like Stork in there instead. A line of Solder-Mankins-Stork-Cannon-Seabass is pretty damn good imo.

 

[RedOctober3829]

With Stork's crappy combine numbers: just flip on the tape and watch him play against high competition.  I wouldn't worry about the numbers as much with him.  He's going to be a very good player.

 

[MainerInExile]

I doubt Wendell and Stork both make the team (so I see Wendell getting cut).  Connolly has a better chance to stick IMO because he can play C and guard.  It's hard for a C-only type of guy to make the team unless he's the starter.

 

[EricFeczko]

I'm guessing that the starting gig goes to Stork at center and Cannon at RG, however, I think the flexibility afforded by having two types of linemen (small/athletic, larger/stronger) is more important.

The smaller athletic line has been excellent for our running game. Since 2006, the Pats have ranked in the top-5 in running success rate (http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/08/glossary.html) and top-3 over the past four years. This is despite not having the formerly traditional single back runner (e.g. Marhsawn Lynch for the Seahawks). However, our O-line has been weaker in the passing game since a number of defenses (i.e. the entire NFC west) have focused more on QB pressure.

Therefore, I think this is about expanding our options. I wouldn't be surprised if the larger guys (Stork, Halapio, Fleming) will see a significant number of snaps on play-action passes and deep throws this year as a way to afford Brady greater protection. I'd expect to see these guys shuffling around between center, LG, and RG quite a bit.  




EDIT: I mean despite not having a traditional single back runner.

 

[Reverend]

When the Patrtiots traded out of 93, three OL were chosen before they selected Stork: Linder (OG 6'6" 311); Schofield (OT 6'6" 301) and Thomas (OT 6'3" 317). Then, only two more are taken between Stork and Fleming: Bodine (C 6'3" 310) and Dozier (OT 6'4" 313). So it seems like they really were targeting Stork or they wildly miscalculated on the trade and someone they wanted was snatched up.
 
Looking through the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds, seems like only Fleming stands out as more of a monster than the other guys going in that range.

 

[Phragle]

I don't think we'll see a scheme change. As you said, most every team really runs a flex scheme (both zone and man) and that certainly includes the Patriots. So it's not really a ZBS now anyway.
 
I think I'd be happy with the line as a whole if they somehow got Wendell on the bench, but there are a few reasons I don't foresee that. They value continuity on the O line. We're not sure Connolly is a week-1 starting center. No one else has experience.
 
If Cannon can be as good at guard as he is at tackle I'd love to see him at guard. He was pretty good this year, IMO he was a better tackle than Connolly was a guard or Wendell was a center.

 

[Eric Ampersand]

I guess it would be more the other way around - they aren't changing philosophies because of DeGuglielmo, but they might have hired DeGuglielmo because they want to change philosophies, and the draftees are also related to the shift.

 
This is precisely what I was thinking. DeGluglielmo certainly has a background with large, powerful linemen. Pairing the coach and players makes the most sense. I also think the draft value was a big part of these selections. There probably isn't much drop off between the talent of Richburg (43) through Wesley Johnson (173) at center. Considering a lack of a 5th round pick, BB chose Stork at 105. Stork was probably the pick at 93. By trading back they still got Stork and also Halapio at 179. Even if someone had stolen Stork they could have drafted Russell Bodine at 105.

 

[bakahump]

 
The smaller athletic line has been excellent for our running game. Since 2006, the Pats have ranked in the top-5 in running success rate (http://www.advancedf...8/glossary.html) and top-3 over the past four years.

We have a debate about this for a couple years.  True, Those numbers say we have been excellent. Some of us would argue that a big part of our "excellence" was because we ran draws on "Blank and long"s.  Getting 4-8 yards on many of those runs but coming up short on 1st downs. In essence Artificially inflating the impact of our run game.   We would further point out that on "3rd and short or very short"  we have been atrocious.
 
Getting bigger road grader types will not only help with the incredible collapsing pocket that has so often lead to our losses recently....but they could also allow us to gain those frustrating 3rd and 2s we have so often come up short on.
 
Maybe this signals less draws and WR screens (sacrilege I know). (thus needing less OL who can get 10 yards away from where the ball was snapped.)
 
Seems like last year we ran alot less WR screens then in years past.  Perhaps losing players like WW and Branch who excelled at those plays, explains this and our move away from it as a tactic.

 

[Shelterdog]

I watched a ton of Fleming (like pretty much every minute of every game he played in, and I always really focus on the Stanford o-line) and he always struck me as a reasonably good athlete: I don't know what happened at the combine but he plays a lot faster and stronger than he showed in Indy. Perhaps he's well enough conditioned and balanced and smart enough that
 
I suspect with Fleming and Halapio they took players who aren't the prototypical athletes they normally pick because there was just too much value.  You're talking about the 140th and 179th pick: if you can get someone who can earn an NFL roster spot for a couple of years you might as well do it.

 

[HurstSoGood]

I'd put my money on this. If JG is indeed the Heir Apparent due to ascend after a few more years of Brady, the Pats will maintain an offense based around a mostly traditional pocket passer rather than a new-age scrambler.  And we've seen too many times how a good interior pass rush can blow up a pocket (Peyton is still having nightmares).  From that perspective, the big bodies up front look like a potential antidote.

 
IIRC, Cincinnati, Buffalo and the NYJ have made huge strides on the defensive front (and gave the Pats tough times last year). We'll see that group 5 times in '14. The NFC's best (SF, CAR & SEA) are loaded defensively. Then there is Denver.
 
So, in order to beat the likely playoff teams (specifically in January), do we need to be able to slow the game down? Does OL size matter if you are trying to run a hurry-up, pass-oriented offense? Or does this indicate a potential philosophical change (which makes sense with a new coach)?
 
 
Edit: Thanks Eric, Baka & Phragle…

 

[Super Nomario]

We have a debate about this for a couple years.  True, Those numbers say we have been excellent. Some of us would argue that a big part of our "excellence" was because we ran draws on "Blank and long"s.  Getting 4-8 yards on many of those runs but coming up short on 1st downs. In essence Artificially inflating the impact of our run game.   We would further point out that on "3rd and short or very short"  we have been atrocious.
 
Getting bigger road grader types will not only help with the incredible collapsing pocket that has so often lead to our losses recently....but they could also allow us to gain those frustrating 3rd and 2s we have so often come up short on.

Last five seasons, Pats are averaging 4.58 YPC on 1st-and-10 (vs league average of 4.41), 10th in the NFL. 3rd / 4th and 1-2 yards over the same time period, they average 3.05 YPC (almost exactly league average of 3.03) and pick up the first 72.8% of the time (league average 66.5%). So they are above average in the situations you describe, contrary to impressions.
 
In runs on 3rd-and-10+, the Pats are actually much worse than average (3.17 YPC vs 5.54). So I don't think they're fattening up on draws on 3rd-and-long.
 
Also, the post you were responding to talks about "success rate," which factors this in. By success rate, you don't get any credit for an 8-yard draw on 3rd-and-12; it counts as a failure.

 

[bakahump]

Thanks for the hard numbers SN.  I knew that the numbers always seemed to countermand our arguments based on impression (though wasnt sure where to pull them).....of course I wasnt going to let facts get in the way of a good argument. 

 

[EricFeczko]

Last five seasons, Pats are averaging 4.58 YPC on 1st-and-10 (vs league average of 4.41), 10th in the NFL. 3rd / 4th and 1-2 yards over the same time period, they average 3.05 YPC (almost exactly league average of 3.03) and pick up the first 72.8% of the time (league average 66.5%). So they are above average in the situations you describe, contrary to impressions.
 
In runs on 3rd-and-10+, the Pats are actually much worse than average (3.17 YPC vs 5.54). So I don't think they're fattening up on draws on 3rd-and-long.
 
Also, the post you were responding to talks about "success rate," which factors this in. By success rate, you don't get any credit for an 8-yard draw on 3rd-and-12; it counts as a failure.

Was signing on to post this. Thanks for the numbers SN.
The success rate numbers I cite derive from Brian Burke's expected points model. A success is counted as any play that increases the expected points from one play to the next (i.e. the expected points added). Team run success rate happens to be a better predictor of wins than run efficiency (e.g. YPC).

SN, you should check the standard deviations for those averages. As I recall, the YPC standard deviations for 1st and 10 and 3 and short situations are extremely small. As a result, the Pats may actually be more of an outlier than the averages depict.
That being said, the small variance around running efficiency only further demonstrates the value of passing in the modern NFL.



 

 

[Super Nomario]

Dante Scarnecchia apparently did some scouting for the Pats on the Stork and Fleming picks, per today's Herald.

 

[Super Nomario]

From reading camp reports, Connolly has been working primarily at C, with Wendell backing him up and Josh Kline playing RG. I would have thought Connolly would primarily be at RG with Wendell at C (the starting configuration last year). Is this a sign they want Kline to win that starting role? It'll be interesting to see where they work in Stork if / when he returns.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

From reading camp reports, Connolly has been working primarily at C, with Wendell backing him up and Josh Kline playing RG. I would have thought Connolly would primarily be at RG with Wendell at C (the starting configuration last year). Is this a sign they want Kline to win that starting role? It'll be interesting to see where they work in Stork if / when he returns.

 
I think Kline is a lock at this point. The question continues to be at center. Stork is back but last time I heard still not in pads.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
I think Kline is a lock at this point. The question continues to be at center. Stork is back but last time I heard still not in pads.

A lock to make the roster, maybe, but to start at RG? I'm not so sure. Though I'm not sure I see a lot of other options at this point.

 

[dynomite]

Very interesting stuff from Mike Reiss's 1st quarter review of the Eagles game:

1. The Patriots used four different combinations on the offensive line in each of their four drives. They are broken down below and highlight how coaches are still evaluating the best combinations. The main competitions are at center and right guard.

Solder-Mankins- Connolly- Devey-Vollmer
Cannon-Mankins-Connolly-Devey-Vollmer
Solder-Kline-Wendell-Devey-Cannon
Solder-Kline-Connolly-Devey-Cannon

2. As the combinations above show, first-year player Jordan Devey is getting a chance to show what he can do with extended reps as he was the one player who wasnt subbed out. It was a mixed bag for him. On the teams second play, a loss of 2 yards by running back Stevan Ridley, the 6-foot-6, 317-pound Devey was pushed back by defensive lineman Cedric Thornton as the Eagles penetrated through to stop the play before it could get started. Devey was also penalized on the play for hands to the face. Devey, who spent last year on the practice squad, is a player who should draw more attention this week as he has the potential to play all five spots on the line, which adds to his value.

 

[Super Nomario]

Cameron Fleming got some reps at RG in the most recent practice: http://www.nepatriotsdraft.com/2014/08/rob-gronkowski-progresses-cameron-fleming-starts-on-final-day-of-patriots-training-camp.html
 
He got good marks for his run blocking in the second preseason game - Reiss praised him in his review, and PFF has him as our second-best offensive player (+3.2 in 66 snaps, behind only Tyms) so far in the preseason. 
 
Through the first two games, we've seen Kline and Devey get auditions for the RG role. Maybe we see Fleming on Friday? It's interesting that the two obvious candidates for RG (as judged by our poll results here at least) have gotten minimal time there. Cannon had one practice where he got some work there, but they seem focused on him at tackle, and Connolly has worked exclusively at C, as far as I can tell. I'm curious to see what happens the rest of the preseason and (especially) how the dust settles when the games start.

 

[bakahump]

SN do you really think Cannon displaces Seabass? They might feel that Cannon is a known value at guard (starter) but want to know what they have if Vollmer or Solder go down.
 
At the end of the day Cannon/Vollmer/Mank/Solder + ?? (Probably Connolly) are the 5 best OL we have.  The "Cannon at T but not G" thing might also be a hedge for our lack of (healthy)TEs.  Without a proven TE we would basically need 3 T's on many plays. (Solder as the eligible, Cannon and Seabass).

 

[Super Nomario]

SN do you really think Cannon displaces Seabass? They might feel that Cannon is a known value at guard (starter) but want to know what they have if Vollmer or Solder go down.
 
At the end of the day Cannon/Vollmer/Mank/Solder + ?? (Probably Connolly) are the 5 best OL we have.  The "Cannon at T but not G" thing might also be a hedge for our lack of (healthy)TEs.  Without a proven TE we would basically need 3 T's on many plays. (Solder as the eligible, Cannon and Seabass).

Cannon's been playing a lot of LT in camp, so I think they see him as the third tackle; he'd step in in case of injury to either Solder or Vollmer. I could buy that Connolly is a known quantity at RG (since he's started there for two seasons), but Cannon has only played a handful of snaps there. I get the impression the Pats like him better at tackle.

 

[tims4wins]

Vollmer has missed the last two days. Hopefully maintenance

 

[soxfan121]

I think they are, justifiably, scared shitless about Solder's concussion history. He may be developing into a top-tier LT; he might be one concussion away from retirement. Hence, Cannon at LT - a lot. Because it might become very necessary. 
 
Interesting that Cannon is getting the majority of that work. Have Vollmer's injuries sapped his ability to swap sides or is stability more important? As for Seabass missing practice - the returning injured veterans (like Mayo) seem to be getting a maintenance week. 
 
Fleming getting reps at RG is good for Fleming, bad for Halapio. 

 

[Tony C]

Cannon's been playing a lot of LT in camp, so I think they see him as the third tackle; he'd step in in case of injury to either Solder or Vollmer. I could buy that Connolly is a known quantity at RG (since he's started there for two seasons), but Cannon has only played a handful of snaps there. I get the impression the Pats like him better at tackle.

 
It might be crazy, but during the Philly game they were doing so much shuffling that it occurred to me that maybe they're planning on using a bit of a 3-man rotation at the 2 tackle positions so they can easily have a guy like Solder become TE eligible. If their evaluation is that there's little drop-off, then aside from keeping guys fresh it would address a position at which the Pats lack depth without wasting a roster slot on a JAG like Maneri.
 
Probably not given how NFL teams prize treating the OL as a cohesive unit, but who knows.
 
Given how Fleming has graded out as a run-blocker (similar to Cannon in his first year) it would make sense to use him at G his first season.

 

[Stitch01]

Pats have done that to a limited extent in recent years. TE having to sit a play before playing OL again is the drawback to using Solder there but he's not new to the role.

 

[Phragle]

I think they are, justifiably, scared shitless about Solder's concussion history. He may be developing into a top-tier LT; he might be one concussion away from retirement. Hence, Cannon at LT - a lot. Because it might become very necessary. 
 
Interesting that Cannon is getting the majority of that work. Have Vollmer's injuries sapped his ability to swap sides or is stability more important? As for Seabass missing practice - the returning injured veterans (like Mayo) seem to be getting a maintenance week. 
 
Fleming getting reps at RG is good for Fleming, bad for Halapio. 

 
I think this is probably it.
 
Cannon is interesting. He played well last year -- only two sacks allowed last season -- and had a very impressive combine at 358 pounds. His weight used to be listed as 340 on the team website, but it's now down to 335 and he looks thinner to my eyes. Whatever his actual weight is, he's likely even more athletic if he's under 358 pounds. If they're worried about Solder, as they should be, Cannon could end up being a good plan B both in the short and long term.
 
If they start to have problems I hope they make Scar and offer he can't refuse.

 

[soxfan121]

If they start to have problems I hope they make Scar and offer he can't refuse.

 
Dale (Arnold) & (Michael) Holley discussed this last Friday (3PM hour?). Relevant because of Holley's prior locker room access and the fact that Dale lives "down the road" from Dante and alluded to a personal relationship. 
 
Both thought it highly likely that Scar is "consulting", in some way, for Belichick and both were adamant that there was no way that would ever be made public or acknowledged because it would "undermine the new guy". Personally, I'll bet Ernie Adams has Dante as part of his conference call during games and would relay anything relevant to BB. IOW, while Dante is no longer working 80 hours a week, he hasn't given up football entirely. 
 
Holley tied it up with an anecdote about how Parcells was a consultant for Pioli when the latter was GM in Kansas City, which led into a fake laughter bit about having your father-in-law around to help with your work. Hey, it was Dale & Holley...it had to end that way. 

 

[Tony C]

Pats have done that to a limited extent in recent years. TE having to sit a play before playing OL again is the drawback to using Solder there but he's not new to the role.

 
Yep, and beyond those limited occasions never seemed worth it given the drawback to having to pull Solder for a play. But if they really have Solder/Cannon/Vollmer graded out as pretty similar, then they might think of doing that much more freely. Just a passing thought that could be a possibility, not that I really believe it's in the cards.