Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,897
Los Angeles, CA
Marcus Smart is also 27 years old and has played overweight most of his NBA career. I know 27 isn't old but he's not a spring chicken either. His body also doesn't seem the type to age well.

Next year he should be fine but his age 29-32 seasons could be ugly.
I'm beginning to agree that now might be the time to sell "high" on him. And it sucks because just last year he almost single-handedly won playoff games for us. If you know you're getting that player after a motivated offseason, you keep him.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,212
Smart is a guy who you'd like your team star and/or your coach to get through to about conditioning and rounding out his shooting skill over the summer. I have no reason to believe the first is viable, and unfortunately there's little evidence the second is either.

I love what Marcus brings, but I do worry about what I saw this year.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
Smart is a guy who you'd like your team star and/or your coach to get through to about conditioning and rounding out his shooting skill over the summer. I have no reason to believe the first is viable, and unfortunately there's little evidence the second is either.

I love what Marcus brings, but I do worry about what I saw this year.
There enlies the issue.

It seems like Marcus thinks he is the leader of the team. Therefore there’s no player that can get on him about this type of stuff and the players that hypothetically could aren’t those type of people (Kemba, Tatum, Brown). Brad sure as hell isn’t getting on him about that.
I really can’t shake the image of him making that fucking boneheaded play against OKC (literally underhand throwing the ball out of bounds)...and then pretty passionately arguing with Kemba about why he did it. Anyone that does something as stupid as that and doesn’t immediately own up to it is not someone I want in a leadership position

And there’s pretty much no way that the Celtics can acquire someone with enough star power that would make Smart fall in line and listen.

This is why I think they pretty much have to trade Smart this summer while his value is high. He’s a good player and I’m a fan of his but he is miscast in the leadership role here.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
I think if you want Marcus on this team you can't caveat it with a "he works on his shooting" he's been in the league 7 years and taken just short of 2500 3PA.... he is almost certainly what he is going to be as a shooter at this point.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
There enlies the issue.

It seems like Marcus thinks he is the leader of the team. Therefore there’s no player that can get on him about this type of stuff and the players that hypothetically could aren’t those type of people (Kemba, Tatum, Brown). Brad sure as hell isn’t getting on him about that.
I really can’t shake the image of him making that fucking boneheaded play against OKC (literally underhand throwing the ball out of bounds)...and then pretty passionately arguing with Kemba about why he did it. Anyone that does something as stupid as that and doesn’t immediately own up to it is not someone I want in a leadership position

And there’s pretty much no way that the Celtics can acquire someone with enough star power that would make Smart fall in line and listen.

This is why I think they pretty much have to trade Smart this summer while his value is high. He’s a good player and I’m a fan of his but he is miscast in the leadership role here.
What leads you to believe that Smart thinks he is the leader on the team?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
What leads you to believe that Smart thinks he is the leader on the team?
Smart has initiated and held team events that his teammates and coaches praised for his leadership. Smart has called himself a leader in interviews and Jaylen (or Jayson I forget which, maybe both) have praised his leadership while being the heart and soul of the team.

I don’t know why some are having an issue with this on a team in desperate need of it. I will say that something seems to have changed this year or maybe not.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
Smart has initiated and held team events that his teammates and coaches praised for his leadership. Smart has called himself a leader in interviews and Jaylen (or Jayson I forget which, maybe both) have praised his leadership while being the heart and soul of the team.

I don’t know why some are having an issue with this on a team in desperate need of it. I will say that something seems to have changed this year or maybe not.
Yes but the poster thinks Smart sees himself as a team leader whom nobody can get on. It wasn't how others perceive him.

Edit: not saying this isn't an issue but we should probably qualify chemistry problems before we go down a rabbit hole on an assumption.
 
Last edited:

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,212
I think if you want Marcus on this team you can't caveat it with a "he works on his shooting" he's been in the league 7 years and taken just short of 2500 3PA.... he is almost certainly what he is going to be as a shooter at this point.
Nah, even in his own career there's been major change...and there's many guys who improve vastly as shooters as they age. Shooting is not a skill for the young particularly. I do not know that he's among the more likely to move up past the 33-35% range, but it certainly isn't outside the realm of realistic possibility that he could adjust his shot (and in his case, the decisions on when he shoots and not) and materially impact this. Whether he will is of course the questoin, and on that I agree his track record is a negative indictor (but not an absolute barrier)
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Nah, even in his own career there's been major change...and there's many guys who improve vastly as shooters as they age. Shooting is not a skill for the young particularly. I do not know that he's among the more likely to move up past the 33-35% range, but it certainly isn't outside the realm of realistic possibility that he could adjust his shot (and in his case, the decisions on when he shoots and not) and materially impact this. Whether he will is of course the questoin, and on that I agree his track record is a negative indictor (but not an absolute barrier)
It's not impossible, but I honestly can't think of a guy who was 2500 3PA into his NBA career as a bad 3pt shooter and became a good one.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,212
It's not impossible, but I honestly can't think of a guy who was 2500 3PA into his NBA career as a bad 3pt shooter and became a good one.
Smart improved from a 30% 3 pt shooter in his first couple years to a 34% recently. So, you can't use the whole sample to make some kind of true talent case, he's clearly improved along the way. The question is whether he's at a ceiling or not.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Horford, LeBron James come to mind as guys who did what you asked about, though I'm confident there's a long list. One can play games with number of attempts since threes are so much more prevalent now, but the point remains guys can and do improve a lot at the point Smart is at in his career. Which is by no means a prediction he will---I would bet against it. But that goes to his mindset, not whether it is possible
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I think if you want Marcus on this team you can't caveat it with a "he works on his shooting" he's been in the league 7 years and taken just short of 2500 3PA.... he is almost certainly what he is going to be as a shooter at this point.
Maybe, maybe not. Jason Kidd was awful until his early 30’s when he became a lethal option. It depends how hard Smsrt works at it. He’s already made quite a bit of improvement mechanically. Now it his shot selection that is dragging his raw number down.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Smart improved from a 30% 3 pt shooter in his first couple years to a 34% recently.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Horford, LeBron James come to mind as guys who did what you asked about, though I'm confident there's a long list. One can play games with number of attempts since threes are so much more prevalent now, but the point remains guys can and do improve a lot at the point Smart is at in his career. Which is by no means a prediction he will---I would bet against it. But that goes to his mindset, not whether it is possible
Attempts matters a lot. Aldridge, Horford, a lot of bigs, they were good shooters who extended their range as their careers went on, the bigger a sample of a guy being a bad shooter despite NBA coaching and personal shooting coaches, the more likely he's just going to be a bad shooter forever.

Horford's first year shooting 3s he was better than Marcus (34.4%, he then went to 35.5% his next and settled in around there as a 36% career shooter) Aldridge doesn't shoot many 3s, but his 1st year shooting a good amount he hit 35%, LeBron might be the closest, he was up and down like Marcus early, had a nice 3-4 year streak then fell back down.

Kidd had a 2 year great stretch, but also 2 of his first 5 seasons were good before a bad stretch in his late 20s.

I just don't see it. Maybe Marcus could improve with shot selection, maybe he gets lucky and has a few pop seasons before regressing again like LeBron or Kidd, but that's not the usual pattern for players. If you are assessing Marcus going forward it should be based on the assumption that he's not going to significantly improve as a shooter. Arguing that he might be an outlier isn't a rational way to approach projecting.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Smart improved from a 30% 3 pt shooter in his first couple years to a 34% recently.

LaMarcus Aldridge, Al Horford, LeBron James come to mind as guys who did what you asked about, though I'm confident there's a long list. One can play games with number of attempts since threes are so much more prevalent now, but the point remains guys can and do improve a lot at the point Smart is at in his career. Which is by no means a prediction he will---I would bet against it. But that goes to his mindset, not whether it is possible
What? LMA only has 664 3PA. Al Horford has 1427, and hasn't really improved that much. LeBron qualifies anyway.

The list is short and 2 of the players you named don't even come close to the 2500 3PA qualifier.

You shouldn't be confident at all. Name some of that long list.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,212
As I noted, it's a dodge to focus on some magic number of total attempts given how recently total attempts for threes shot up league wide.

It's also not analytically appropriate to use (as a couple of you are) the total when the success percentage within those attempts varies hugely (as Smart's does). That's simply not how the math or true talent analysis works. If Smart had shot 30% with low year to year variation for 2500 attempts it would be true he's not likely to shoot 36% on his next 400-- because that would suggest strongly his true talent level was 30%. But that's a very different track record than his actual one. And that's precisely the point.

If the point was "guys who have a few years in the league don't improve" that's also false, as several have demonstrated with examples.

I get it's easy to say that Smart can't improve but that simply isn't true of Smart's own career, or that of others. As many know, there's also a reasonable correlation between ft% and 3p% and you can find even more guys (with larger samples) who improved their ft% markedly and as their careers progressed. This just isn't a very controversial suggestion, frankly.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
As I noted, it's a dodge to focus on some magic number of total attempts given how recently attempt percentage shot up.

It's also not analytically appropriate to use as a couple of you are when the success percentage within those attempts varies hugely (as Smart's does). That's simply not how the math or true talent analysis works. If Smart had shot 30% for 2500 attempts it would be true he's not likely to shoot 36% on his next 400---but that's a very different track record than his actual one.

If the point was "guys who have a few years in the league don't improve" that's also false, as several have demonstrated with examples.

I get it's easy to say that Smart can't improve but that simply isn't true of Smart's own career, or that of others.
He already improved and the examples named have been very few. He's been a .348 3 point shooter the last 3 years on 1023 attempts, far better than the .293 he shot in his first 1094 attempts.

His career track record is .320 over 2117. Not that far off from .300 and 2500, really. If you think Marcus Smart can improve to a .360 shooter, I mean ok. He basically has been the last 3 years. That's still below league average, though it's certainly better than the .330 he is shooting this season. I don't see anyone arguing that the .330 is his true talent level though. It's obvious to anyone you can ignore his first 4 seasons.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
Smart has initiated and held team events that his teammates and coaches praised for his leadership. Smart has called himself a leader in interviews and Jaylen (or Jayson I forget which, maybe both) have praised his leadership while being the heart and soul of the team.

I don’t know why some are having an issue with this on a team in desperate need of it. I will say that something seems to have changed this year or maybe not.
And that supports the view that he is, in his estimation, a team leader whom nobody can get on?

Again, this may well be true and if it is, it may be an issue. I have seen no evidence yet that Smart feels his role puts him above reproach.

Smart is a flawed player as are all NBA players. Its fine to cite the known issues, such as shooting or even decision making. But now we are in to the locker room stuff and the issue is that nobody here has demonstrated that they know what is going on with the team internally. Its fair to wonder if something is wrong but it may well be Thompson or Brown or even Tatum that is casuing friction, if that is even an issue.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,100
My issue with Smart is that I don't think his game is what this team will need to take the next step going forward. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the offense flowing that great when he's on the floor, I see too many rushed 3's when there's 20 seconds left on the shot clock, and I don't see this rumored All-NBA defense anymore.

I also think he could fetch a more useful player in return as part of a larger trade, but I realize it's not as easy as it sounds (even though other GM's somehow make similar trades every offseason).

As for his locker room impact, all we have are the public statements. Based on those statements, he would be missed, but I don't believe those skills are irreplaceable either.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
And that supports the view that he is, in his estimation, a team leader whom nobody can get on?

Again, this may well be true and if it is, it may be an issue. I have seen no evidence yet that Smart feels his role puts him above reproach.

Smart is a flawed player as are all NBA players. Its fine to cite the known issues, such as shooting or even decision making. But now we are in to the locker room stuff and the issue is that nobody here has demonstrated that they know what is going on with the team internally. Its fair to wonder if something is wrong but it may well be Thompson or Brown or even Tatum that is casuing friction, if that is even an issue.
I copied and pasted the below from last years playoffs post game. Does this support everything I said before? No. I added some of my own opinions to it. I do think the below does paint a picture of someone who is more comfortable telling others what to do and not receiving criticism well. You may read it differently
If you want to go really down the rabbit hole here, none of us know anything about anything when it comes to this team. Even the “known issues” you cite, we don’t have all of the information the team/coaching staff are privy to.
I guess I enjoy reading and discussing different types of things here than you do. I think reading things with opinion and conjecture are fun and what makes a message board different than say a beat reporters postgame stories. You seem only comfortable with posting stats and a very straight analysis of those stats. To each their own


“Last night’s shouting match in the Boston Celtics’ locker room following their Game 2 loss to the Miami Heat in their East Finals series with that team was between Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, reports The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

“Sources told The Athletic that Smart stormed into the Celtics postgame locker room saying that other players needed to be held accountable and not simply point the finger toward him when things are going wrong,” explained Charania.

“As Smart continued and his voice grew louder, sources said Brown snapped back and shouted that Celtics players must stay together and that their actions must come as a team, not individually, and that Smart needed to cool off. Those sources added Smart had verbal exchanges with a couple of the assistant coaches during the game.”

The exchange, while emotional, was one of only words, Charania reporting teammates intervening to de-escalate the situation quickly, with the pair having reconciled since.”
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
I copied and pasted the below from last years playoffs post game. Does this support everything I said before? No. I added some of my own opinions to it. I do think the below does paint a picture of someone who is more comfortable telling others what to do and not receiving criticism well. You may read it differently
If you want to go really down the rabbit hole here, none of us know anything about anything when it comes to this team. Even the “known issues” you cite, we don’t have all of the information the team/coaching staff are privy to.
I guess I enjoy reading and discussing different types of things here than you do. I think reading things with opinion and conjecture are fun and what makes a message board different than say a beat reporters postgame stories. You seem only comfortable with posting stats and a very straight analysis of those stats. To each their own


“Last night’s shouting match in the Boston Celtics’ locker room following their Game 2 loss to the Miami Heat in their East Finals series with that team was between Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown, reports The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

“Sources told The Athletic that Smart stormed into the Celtics postgame locker room saying that other players needed to be held accountable and not simply point the finger toward him when things are going wrong,” explained Charania.

“As Smart continued and his voice grew louder, sources said Brown snapped back and shouted that Celtics players must stay together and that their actions must come as a team, not individually, and that Smart needed to cool off. Those sources added Smart had verbal exchanges with a couple of the assistant coaches during the game.”

The exchange, while emotional, was one of only words, Charania reporting teammates intervening to de-escalate the situation quickly, with the pair having reconciled since.”
I am no mod so feel free to discuss whatever your heart desires. Your gut feeling may well be correct. Its just that you may spend several pages agreeing with everyone else here that Marcus Smart is a chemistry problem for the Celtics when its entirely possible that its not remotely true. It then becomes a given much like the old one that Stevens never challenges or the Celtics can't win third quarters. Those two things have been proven to be inaccurate yet it still comes up.

When did Marcus Smart stop beating on everyone in the locker room?
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
9,303
I am no mod so feel free to discuss whatever your heart desires. Your gut feeling may well be correct. Its just that you may spend several pages agreeing with everyone else here that Marcus Smart is a chemistry problem for the Celtics when its entirely possible that its not remotely true. It then becomes a given much like the old one that Stevens never challenges or the Celtics can't win third quarters. Those two things have been proven to be inaccurate yet it still comes up.

When did Marcus Smart stop beating on everyone in the locker room?
I don’t think he’s a chemistry problem at all.

I think he’s miscast as the leader of the team and I don’t think there’s anyone that the Celtics can acquire that can take that leadership mantle away from him.

To me, it’s pretty clear that this team has an issue with leadership/energy. Getting down by 25+ points as much as they have, starting games off with 0 energy or execution then suddenly turning it on after halftime...these things just don’t happen as much as they’ve happened to the Celtics if something wasn’t off. Due to that, IMO a change needs to be made more than just retooling the end of the roster

I think the two leaders of the team are Stevens and Smart. I have criticized Stevens here but I don’t think he should be fired. I think Smart’s value will only decrease after this offseason as he gets closer to his contract expiring both because the team trading for him will have less years of control and because Smart is a very emotional player and person and a looming contract extension could distract him and negatively impacted his play.

Since I think that you think I completely make things up, i want to relay this. I remember an earlier post of yours where you referenced that you enjoy Kevin O’Connor’s work. On the episode of his podcast “The Mismatch”, after the Celtics played the Grizzlies which was right around the trade deadline, Chris Vernon (a Memphis radio guy who is involved with the Grizzlies pre and post game shows) said that he talked to his “really trusted” Celtics sources who told him that the rumors about Smart getting traded at the deadline had really effected him personally and the way he plays. KOC agreed and said he had been hearing the exact same things.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,478
Melrose, MA
I'm willing to grant that Kemba may make the offense run better than the rest of the roster, I just think that's damning with faint praise. I'd likely also yield to any on/off stats demonstrating it, SSS notwithstanding. My point is that an actual pass first PG would be vastly superior and 'force multiply' the Js and probably Fournier. My eyes also sees that, when it works, yes his hurtling around can create opportunities...but that's hard to build an offense around and the half step he's likely lost has him equally lost in the trees at the basket.
Pass-first point guards have largely gone the way of the dodo in the modern NBA.
It's not impossible, but I honestly can't think of a guy who was 2500 3PA into his NBA career as a bad 3pt shooter and became a good one.
Framiong the question this way, including using 2,500 as a cutoff, is basically a way of assuming your conclusion. Three popint volume has changed significantly since its inception, so you are more or less ignoring most of NBA history. Anyway, why not look at Smart's year-to-year three-point percentages?
  • 33.5%
  • 25.3%
  • 28.3%
  • 30.1%
  • 36.4%
  • 34.7%
  • 33.0%
He's clearly an improved shooter over the guy who shot below 30% over a 3-year span.
My issue with Smart is that I don't think his game is what this team will need to take the next step going forward. I could be wrong, but I just don't see the offense flowing that great when he's on the floor, I see too many rushed 3's when there's 20 seconds left on the shot clock, and I don't see this rumored All-NBA defense anymore.
He's the closest thing the Celtics have to a pass-first point guard.

I think it is a mistake to make major personnel decisions based on things that happen during a once-in-league-history abnormal season. That goes for Stevens and Marcus.
 

Strike4

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,896
Portland, Maine
I don’t think he’s a chemistry problem at all.

I think he’s miscast as the leader of the team and I don’t think there’s anyone that the Celtics can acquire that can take that leadership mantle away from him.
There may be some truth to this, given the change in the make up of the team over the past few years. The Celtics used to be upstarts who relied on sound defense across the board to stay competitive, with Smart leading the way on "intangibles" plays. Now they are a team that scores a lot of points but gives up a lot of points and relies on outgunning other teams to win. It's Tatum they look to to win with scoring.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
I think of they brought Horford back Smart would concede some amount of leadership to him.
you don't add aging players on bad contracts who are subpar fits on court to better the situation with your 6th man. If Marcus is the issue you trade him, you don't make bad moves in the hopes it makes him not the problem.

Now maybe he isn't the issue, but if he is, Marcus Smart is nowhere near good enough as a player for you to make moves based on how to keep him, you just move him and eliminate the problem

Framiong the question this way, including using 2,500 as a cutoff, is basically a way of assuming your conclusion. Three popint volume has changed significantly since its inception, so you are more or less ignoring most of NBA history. Anyway, why not look at Smart's year-to-year three-point percentages?
  • 33.5%
  • 25.3%
  • 28.3%
  • 30.1%
  • 36.4%
  • 34.7%
  • 33.0%
He's clearly an improved shooter over the guy who shot below 30% over a 3-year span.
He's the closest thing the Celtics have to a pass-first point guard.

I think it is a mistake to make major personnel decisions based on things that happen during a once-in-league-history abnormal season. That goes for Stevens and Marcus.
I am fine ignoring a large part of NBA history, because it is useless. If you are trying to determine how likely a player is to significantly improve as a high volume 3pt shooter, you need to look at the past of high volume 3pt shooters. The modern NBA is essentially a different game than the past, 3pt shooting at volume is far more important.

Yes Marcus has improved some as a shooter, nobody doubts that. the question was... will he continue to improve... and the answer based on the past is that it's unlikely. He may touch 36% a few more times, maybe have a year where he gets hot and goes for 38%, but there is nothing in his past performance, and little in the performance of hundreds of players over the last 15-20 years that indicates it's at all likely he becomes much better as a 3pt shooter this deep into his career and this far into his time as a high volume 3pt shooter.

So, if we are looking at Marcus as a player going forward, we should do it based on reason not hope. Marcus is likely somewhere between a 33 and 35% shooter from 3 on average going forward. People arguing... "we should keep him because he can work on his shot and become a much better 3pt shooter" are not dealing in reality, they are dealing in delusional hope.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,124
Santa Monica
I think the two leaders of the team are Stevens and Smart. I have criticized Stevens here but I don’t think he should be fired. I think Smart’s value will only decrease after this offseason as he gets closer to his contract expiring both because the team trading for him will have less years of control and because Smart is a very emotional player and person and a looming contract extension could distract him and negatively impacted his play.

Since I think that you think I completely make things up, i want to relay this. I remember an earlier post of yours where you referenced that you enjoy Kevin O’Connor’s work. On the episode of his podcast “The Mismatch”, after the Celtics played the Grizzlies which was right around the trade deadline, Chris Vernon (a Memphis radio guy who is involved with the Grizzlies pre and post game shows) said that he talked to his “really trusted” Celtics sources who told him that the rumors about Smart getting traded at the deadline had really effected him personally and the way he plays. KOC agreed and said he had been hearing the exact same things.
Yea, agree with this take. I've been a Smart stan for years and have felt he has been the de-facto Captain of this team the last 2 seasons.

I'd rather move Kemba than Smart but KWs contract makes him pretty unmoveable (that Kemba contract could end up hamstringing this team for the next two seasons o_O).

Contract year Smart could be all about the POINTZ (since scoring gets $$$). Go Rozier, and jack shots up with abandon. So if Marcus stays (and Kemba goes) then Danny* should get MS an extension done before the season.

*Wouldn't be shocked if Danny took a reduced/advisory role (has had health issues and maybe saves Austins' job) and the C's promoted Zarren. Management could use this as a cover to make some larger player moves.
 
Last edited:

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Yea, agree with this take. I've been a Smart stan for years and have felt he has been the de-facto Captain of this team the last 2 seasons.

I'd rather move Kemba than Smart but KWs contract makes him pretty unmoveable (that Kemba contract could end up hamstringing this team for the next two seasons o_O).

Contract year Smart could be all about the POINTZ (since scoring gets $$$). Go Rozier, and jack shots up with abandon. So if Marcus stays (and Kemba goes) then Danny* should get MS an extension done before the season.

*Wouldn't be shocked if Danny took a reduced/advisory role (has had health issues and maybe saves Austins' job) and the C's promoted Zarren. Management could use this as a cover to make some larger player moves.
See, I don't think KW vs. Smart should even be the conversation. They don't work together that's true, but all the negatives I see growing in Smart don't really have to do with Kemba, it's just the Kemba pairing makes them worse. Kemba isn't the reason Marcus is struggling against quicker guards this year, he definitely isn't the reason he is a well below average shooter, Kemba isn't why Marcus turns the ball over way too much on moderate usage.

I also don't think Kemba's contract is that big an issue... he's still a good offensive player, and he's not a terrible defender, just a below average one, and there are only 2 years left.

I think Kemba vs. Marcus misframes the question in part because it frames Marcus as a starting PG option.... he shouldn't be. He's a SG if we're being generous, and undersized swing if we aren't. You can't plan a roster around a starting PG who can't stretch the floor, is a servicable distributor, turns it over a bunch and whose best attribute is his switch defense on strong 2-4 players.

I mean, I look at Kemba, and I see a player who is a much better shooter, better passer, turns it over far less on much higher usage, rebounds better (that's just embarrassing for Marcus), and is generally a much better offensive player. He's not as good a defender, but Marcus seems to be slipping on that end, particularly against PGs.... which is concerning if that's who you want him to play.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,478
Melrose, MA
I'm beginning to agree that now might be the time to sell "high" on him. And it sucks because just last year he almost single-handedly won playoff games for us. If you know you're getting that player after a motivated offseason, you keep him.
This thread is about 95% dedicated to the slagging of Smart, but also has this lone call to "sell high." I don't think "sell high" is on the table here.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,214
I don’t think he’s a chemistry problem at all.

I think he’s miscast as the leader of the team and I don’t think there’s anyone that the Celtics can acquire that can take that leadership mantle away from him.

To me, it’s pretty clear that this team has an issue with leadership/energy. Getting down by 25+ points as much as they have, starting games off with 0 energy or execution then suddenly turning it on after halftime...these things just don’t happen as much as they’ve happened to the Celtics if something wasn’t off. Due to that, IMO a change needs to be made more than just retooling the end of the roster

I think the two leaders of the team are Stevens and Smart. I have criticized Stevens here but I don’t think he should be fired. I think Smart’s value will only decrease after this offseason as he gets closer to his contract expiring both because the team trading for him will have less years of control and because Smart is a very emotional player and person and a looming contract extension could distract him and negatively impacted his play.

Since I think that you think I completely make things up, i want to relay this. I remember an earlier post of yours where you referenced that you enjoy Kevin O’Connor’s work. On the episode of his podcast “The Mismatch”, after the Celtics played the Grizzlies which was right around the trade deadline, Chris Vernon (a Memphis radio guy who is involved with the Grizzlies pre and post game shows) said that he talked to his “really trusted” Celtics sources who told him that the rumors about Smart getting traded at the deadline had really effected him personally and the way he plays. KOC agreed and said he had been hearing the exact same things.
You don't like Marcus Smart and you have your reasons. I don't agree with most of them so we should move on at this point. I believe that some of the criticism of Smart is entirely justified - he is not perfect and if the Cs can move him to upgrade the roster, they should do so. However I simply don't have enough actual information that tells me his leadership or perception of being one is contributing to the team's middling results.

I would argue that a player being upset about trade rumors seems like a bad example of the point you are trying to make but YRMV. I think its very human for someone - especially in such a competitive environment and especially if its their first job/part of their career - to let shifting workplace dynamics affect their thinking and even performance. It may say to you that Smart doesn't possess the leadership skills he thinks he does but to me, its very on brand for an emotional player who seems to want to stay in Boston. That shouldn't really be a factor in anyone's analysis but I also don't believe it should be used as a negative against a player.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,948
See, I don't think KW vs. Smart should even be the conversation. They don't work together that's true, but all the negatives I see growing in Smart don't really have to do with Kemba, it's just the Kemba pairing makes them worse. Kemba isn't the reason Marcus is struggling against quicker guards this year, he definitely isn't the reason he is a well below average shooter, Kemba isn't why Marcus turns the ball over way too much on moderate usage.

I also don't think Kemba's contract is that big an issue... he's still a good offensive player, and he's not a terrible defender, just a below average one, and there are only 2 years left.

I think Kemba vs. Marcus misframes the question in part because it frames Marcus as a starting PG option.... he shouldn't be. He's a SG if we're being generous, and undersized swing if we aren't. You can't plan a roster around a starting PG who can't stretch the floor, is a servicable distributor, turns it over a bunch and whose best attribute is his switch defense on strong 2-4 players.

I mean, I look at Kemba, and I see a player who is a much better shooter, better passer, turns it over far less on much higher usage, rebounds better (that's just embarrassing for Marcus), and is generally a much better offensive player. He's not as good a defender, but Marcus seems to be slipping on that end, particularly against PGs.... which is concerning if that's who you want him to play.
I support this 100%. Marcus Smart has given me some great memories over the last 5-6 years (getting into Harden's head at the end of that game being right up there), but now, the good moments are far, far overshadowed and outweighed by the bad ones. We joke about it all the time in the game threads, but the worst thing Marcus Smart can do is make shots early. Because you just know he's going to be tossing about 15+ shots up that night, and probably end up making less than 6. When he starts focusing on getting his points, his defense falters, and then it snowballs from there, leading to weird fouls, technicals and recently, an ejection.

There has always been good Marcus and bad Marcus. I don't think good Marcus shows up more than bad Marcus anymore, and it's time to move him while you can still get something in return.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
Contract year Smart could be all about the POINTZ (since scoring gets $$$). Go Rozier, and jack shots up with abandon. So if Marcus stays (and Kemba goes) then Danny* should get MS an extension done before the season.
I still think that a three year extension to bleed all the useful performance out of Marcus is the most likely scenario. With the injury this year I think he'll be amenable to locking in guaranteed money.

Boston's largest problem this year has been that they've been asking too much of Marcus (offensively) due to the wonkiness of the season. Marcus is Dre' Green's MiniMe, the Swiss Army knife that does whatever the team needs. When the offense is healthy and scoring, you don't see him overshooting. But this year with all 3,972 games lost to injury they've rarely had more than two of their scorers available on any given night. And so Marcus has to do more offensively than he's really capable of. That I expect to change next year with Nesmith's offseason growth and Fournier's re-signing.

I'm also expecting a Walker trade so that they can guarantee Never Google a starting job next year. Marcus moving back to his sixth man role fixes most things. Aside from that, I'm not sure what you're going to get for Marcus as his value is stil greatest to playoff teams and they usually only have mediocre firsts to trade.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
This thread is about 95% dedicated to the slagging of Smart, but also has this lone call to "sell high." I don't think "sell high" is on the table here.
You sell high any time the thing's value higher than it will be in the future. Players in their late 20s usually don't go up in value.
It's like the stock market... just because a stock was valued higher in the past doesn't mean selling now isn't selling high. It can be if the company's future looks likely to be worse.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
41,948
I still think that a three year extension to bleed all the useful performance out of Marcus is the most likely scenario. With the injury this year I think he'll be amenable to locking in guaranteed money.

Boston's largest problem this year has been that they've been asking too much of Marcus (offensively) due to the wonkiness of the season. Marcus is Dre' Green's MiniMe, the Swiss Army knife that does whatever the team needs. When the offense is healthy and scoring, you don't see him overshooting. But this year with all 3,972 games lost to injury they've rarely had more than two of their scorers available on any given night. And so Marcus has to do more offensively than he's really capable of. That I expect to change next year with Nesmith's offseason growth and Fournier's re-signing.

I'm also expecting a Walker trade so that they can guarantee Never Google a starting job next year. Marcus moving back to his sixth man role fixes most things. Aside from that, I'm not sure what you're going to get for Marcus as his value is stil greatest to playoff teams and they usually only have mediocre firsts to trade.
If you trade Kemba, and move Marcus back to the 6th man, who is running the point?

Please Dear Baby Jesus, don't let it be Tatum. I suppose it could be somebody that comes back in the trade for Kemba, but I don't really know who that could be?
 

RIFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,087
Rhode Island
I've always thought Smart was the type of player championship teams need. He was perfectly cast as the 6th man who could come of the bench, give some energy or provide lockdown D on a few different positions. He seemed best at 20-24 minutes a game. You accept some bad shot choices on occasion because the positives outweigh that. I don't know if starting him has ruined him or he feels he needs to overly fill a leadership void, but he looks like a drag on the team more than an asset right now. If they think they can revert him back to the role he's mostly had I would be in favor of hanging on to him. If that will cause him to be a detriment in the locker room I'd get what they can for him and move on.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
25,897
Los Angeles, CA
This thread is about 95% dedicated to the slagging of Smart, but also has this lone call to "sell high." I don't think "sell high" is on the table here.
There's a reason why I put "high" in quotes. His value is obviously not at it's highest, but we may be able to get value from some GM based on reputation. He was lauded during last year's playoffs after all. If we wait longer to unload him and he continues to decline, then all of that will be off the table.

Edit: Also, what Cellar said.
 
Last edited:

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
If you trade Kemba, and move Marcus back to the 6th man, who is running the point?

Please Dear Baby Jesus, don't let it be Tatum. I suppose it could be somebody that comes back in the trade for Kemba, but I don't really know who that could be?
PP? He doesn't really seem like the pass first PG the team needs though.

They would also possibly have money to sign a FA.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
PP? He doesn't really seem like the pass first PG the team needs though.

They would also possibly have money to sign a FA.
Yeah, I like PP..... Kemba is a better player, and a better PG for sure. PP is a nice bench shooting Seth Curry type small combo guard.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Smart is a guy who you'd like your team star and/or your coach to get through to about conditioning and rounding out his shooting skill over the summer. I have no reason to believe the first is viable, and unfortunately there's little evidence the second is either.

I love what Marcus brings, but I do worry about what I saw this year.
I’m not really worried about Marcus. He was as expected until his calf injury then had to essentially play his preseason games to work into shape against players in peak mid-season condition. The calf is tough since you can’t do any type of cardio or impact training unlike say LaMelo Ball’s wrist injury that is easier to return from in mid season as he can still do much of the conditioning part. Smart also is a player who needs his conditioning to be on point to succeeed. So I’m not down on Marcus the player for next year.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
PP? He doesn't really seem like the pass first PG the team needs though.

They would also possibly have money to sign a FA.
It cannot be PP as he is so far away from being an effective starting PG in the traditional sense. His inability to get to his spots to initiate make Smart look like Chris Paul in this regard.
 

reggiecleveland

sublime
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2004
27,958
Saskatoon Canada
What Marcus has done as a shooter is nothing short of remarkable. When drafted there was legitimate concern he was a non-shooter not or bad shooter not just a weak shooter. He has shot well enough the last few years to justify him taking shots. I mean to ask him to shoot better from 3 is like hoping Pedroia became a 30hr guy.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
What Marcus has done as a shooter is nothing short of remarkable. When drafted there was legitimate concern he was a non-shooter not or bad shooter not just a weak shooter. He has shot well enough the last few years to justify him taking shots. I mean to ask him to shoot better from 3 is like hoping Pedroia became a 30hr guy.
I mean... he's still not a good shooter.
It's more like a guy who came into the league putting up a .209 OBP like Franchy Cordero and now has a .304 OBP like Vazquez... that guy still sucks at getting on base and you'd want him to do better.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

writes the Semi-Fin
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2001
4,047
South Carolina via Dorchestah
If you trade Kemba, and move Marcus back to the 6th man, who is running the point?
Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters in some kind of trench coat scenario.

As to Smart, I was surprised to see that his turnover numbers aren't that bad. Eye-test, I feel like every game the Celtics lose features a couple moments where Smart loses the ball and gives up an easy two on the other end. But he's only averaging 2.0 turnovers per game (and maybe 1.5 at the buffet?). I mean, that's not great, but 2017-2018 Smart coughed it up 2.4 times per game in fewer minutes, and that was "Good Smart" who helped the Celts to the ECF.

I miss Good Smart. Good Smart gets forgiven for winging passes into the stands because Good Smart also gobbles up loose balls, takes charges, and blocks Giannis Antetokounmpo dunk attempts. Can Good Smart exist on a bad Celtics team? Has he been Good Smart all season but we're frustrated, so his bad plays stick out more?
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters in some kind of trench coat scenario.

As to Smart, I was surprised to see that his turnover numbers aren't that bad. Eye-test, I feel like every game the Celtics lose features a couple moments where Smart loses the ball and gives up an easy two on the other end. But he's only averaging 2.0 turnovers per game (and maybe 1.5 at the buffet?). I mean, that's not great, but 2017-2018 Smart coughed it up 2.4 times per game in fewer minutes, and that was "Good Smart" who helped the Celts to the ECF.

I miss Good Smart. Good Smart gets forgiven for winging passes into the stands because Good Smart also gobbles up loose balls, takes charges, and blocks Giannis Antetokounmpo dunk attempts. Can Good Smart exist on a bad Celtics team? Has he been Good Smart all season but we're frustrated, so his bad plays stick out more?
14.2 is a pretty bad TOV%, especially for only having 18.4 USG.
Among guys who've played significant (300+ minutes) time the only ones with worse TOV% are: Grant, TL, Teague.

As a comparison to the other guards/wings.... Fournier 9.3, Tatum 10.5, Nesmith 10.6, Kemba 10.6, PP 10.9, Jaylen 11.5. He turns it over a lot.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,478
Melrose, MA
Here's a shorter version of this thread. "Marcus is having a down year, let's ignore all of the various things that have gone uniquely wrong this year and attribute his struggles this year to the beginning of a permanent decline."

Maybe.

But it is all pure speculation. The counter-argument (the problem is the 2020-21 NBA season in all of its unprecedented mess) is just as strong.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Here's a shorter version of this thread. "Marcus is having a down year, let's ignore all of the various things that have gone uniquely wrong this year and attribute his struggles this year to the beginning of a permanent decline."

Maybe.

But it is all pure speculation. The counter-argument (the problem is the 2020-21 NBA season in all of its unprecedented mess) is just as strong.
Well.... not entirely.
There is also the argument that even if Marcus bounces back, the player he is has become less valuable to this team than a different player would be based on his strengths, weaknesses and physical profile.

If you told me I would get 19-20 Marcus every year for the next 4 if I signed him to a 3 year extension..... I probably still would like to trade him in an effort to get a bouncy 3/4 with 3pt shooting ability an above average D.

Marcus as his best is a defensive menace but undersized, a mediocre to poor 3pt shooter for a guard, a decent but unexceptional passer, a poor rebounder and turnover prone. He's a good player... he's just not what this team needs alongside it's switchy scoring wings and undersized scoring PG.

I don't know if Marcus' decline is all COVID season, but even if it is, I don't know that I see him as a top end fit long term, and that I'd want to pay his next contract.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

writes the Semi-Fin
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2001
4,047
South Carolina via Dorchestah
Here's a shorter version of this thread. "Marcus is having a down year, let's ignore all of the various things that have gone uniquely wrong this year and attribute his struggles this year to the beginning of a permanent decline."

Maybe.

But it is all pure speculation. The counter-argument (the problem is the 2020-21 NBA season in all of its unprecedented mess) is just as strong.
But here's the counter-counter:

If the 2020-21 NBA season is an "unprecedented mess" how do you explain the Knicks? Better leadership?
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,212
Carsen Edwards and Tremont Waters in some kind of trench coat scenario.

As to Smart, I was surprised to see that his turnover numbers aren't that bad. Eye-test, I feel like every game the Celtics lose features a couple moments where Smart loses the ball and gives up an easy two on the other end. But he's only averaging 2.0 turnovers per game (and maybe 1.5 at the buffet?). I mean, that's not great, but 2017-2018 Smart coughed it up 2.4 times per game in fewer minutes, and that was "Good Smart" who helped the Celts to the ECF.

I miss Good Smart. Good Smart gets forgiven for winging passes into the stands because Good Smart also gobbles up loose balls, takes charges, and blocks Giannis Antetokounmpo dunk attempts. Can Good Smart exist on a bad Celtics team? Has he been Good Smart all season but we're frustrated, so his bad plays stick out more?
The other thing about him, though, is that he takes a fair amount of hero-ball bad shots. Sometimes those are explainable (team struggling, shot clock, etc.) but it's another contributor to the eye-test perception about his offensive efficiency I suspect.