So, what do we have here? A talent review about half way through the season

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Dusting this off and updating from about a month ago, in hopefully a more legible format...




Changes in the last month...

• Maye now on the board
• Leverett, Thomas, Uche not
• After their stronger starts to the season turned into more inconsistent play Michael Jordan and Baringer down one rung

As always, these are not scientific rankings-- but some combination of the eye test, gut instinct, and some simple stat-scanning-- put forward as a conversation-starter

Edit: accidently typed Wise twice when I was thinking of Elliss for one of those times. Or the other. Either way, fixed

Edit 2: Jeeb-zus but I'm a disaster with this user interface functionality. Sorry, anyone, who was watching that attempt at an update.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Great-looking chart, Disco. Nice formatting.

Can't really quibble with any of your rankings. I might elevate Godchaux and Marcus Jones to "Average Starter", but that's about it. Sobering to see how little top-end talent the team currently has. I wish I trusted Eliot Wolf to pick the groceries but, alas, I do not.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think Marcus is an All Pro punt returner.

I think Stevenson is top third of starters - the line is not his fault.

If the name of the game for an NFL edge player was setting the edge/stopping the run, I think Jennings would be an All Pro.

All in all @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache rankings look pretty fair to me. There are guys with the potential to move during the second half, starting with Maye.

 

[johnmd20]

I think Marcus is an All Pro punt returner.

I think Stevenson is top third of starters - the line is not his fault.

If the name of the game for an NFL edge player was setting the edge/stopping the run, I think Jennings would be an All Pro.

All in all @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache rankings look pretty fair to me. There are guys with the potential to move during the second half, starting with Maye.

Look at the RBs in the NFL.

Stevenson is not in the top 3rd.

Henry
Saquon
Bijan
Kyren
Kamara
Breece
McCaffrey
Taylor
Mixon
Aaron Jones
Swift
Gibbs
Conner
Cook
Dobbins
Hubbard
Montgomery
Pollard
Jacobs
Achane
Ken Walker

That's 21 guys that are better than Rham. He's barely in the top 2/3rds.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Stevenson is top third of starters - the line is not his fault.

Look at the RBs in the NFL... ...Stevenson is not in the top 3rd... ...[There are] 21 guys that are better than Rham. He's barely in the top 2/3rds.

The question about Rham is a good one.

How much credit or blame should he, AVP, and the OLine get for what happens when he has the ball?

They eye test clears its throat and points out that when the healthy guys on our OLine were decent run-blockers-- and before everyone figured out AVP's play-calling-- Rham looked great. That after a couple of 'ole' plays early in the season he's became an enthusiastic and effective blocker when it's called for. (Aside: On a couple of Maye's open field scrambles, Rham blocking has been a corner-of-the-TV-screen delight). The eye test also says that Rham has been up there with Henry as an important/reliable/effective safety-blanket as a check-down receiver.

Now let's turn to that "some simple stat-scanning" thing I mentioned above.

There have been ~30 backs in the league that have taken at least 90 rushing attempts so far this season. Old-timey stats point out that for the first five weeks of the year Rham was in the middle third of that group for yards-per-carry, with an average modestly over 4. Since then he-- and more or less everyone on our roster other than Maye-- would be at or close to the bottom of that list, with an average under 3.

Fancy-dancy modern stats then butts in to say that various opaque "run grade"-type scores claim that the version of Rham that doesn't fumble very often is in the middle third of these ~30 peers in terms of overall performance. But the version of Rham that fumbles once a game is very much bottom third. Fancy modern stats also say Rham's been top ten of that group for pass blocking and top five in run blocking. That he's in the top third as a receiving target (catches as % of targets, contested catches) and top three of those 30 backs for the number of tackles he's broken/evaded after receptions. (Although he has zero "leaping over someone backward" plays).

What to make of all that?

That Disco has too much free time on his hands and should have been raking leaves instead of pulling this together? You probably have a case...

 

[chilidawg]

The question about Rham is a good one.

How much credit or blame should he, AVP, and the OLine get for what happens when he has the ball?

They eye test clears its throat and points out that when the healthy guys on our OLine were decent run-blockers-- and before everyone figured out AVP's play-calling-- Rham looked great. That after a couple of 'ole' plays early in the season he's became an enthusiastic and effective blocker when it's called for. (Aside: On a couple of Maye's open field scrambles, Rham blocking has been a corner-of-the-TV-screen delight). The eye test also says that Rham has been up there with Henry as an important/reliable/effective safety-blanket as a check-down receiver.

Now let's turn to that "some simple stat-scanning" thing I mentioned above.

There have been ~30 backs in the league that have taken at least 90 rushing attempts so far this season. Old-timey stats point out that for the first five weeks of the year Rham was in the middle third of that group for yards-per-carry, with an average modestly over 4. Since then he-- and more or less everyone on our roster other than Maye-- would be at or close to the bottom of that list, with an average under 3.

Fancy-dancy modern stats then butts in to say that various opaque "run grade"-type scores claim that the version of Rham that doesn't fumble very often is in the middle third of these ~30 peers in terms of overall performance. But the version of Rham that fumbles once a game is very much bottom third. Fancy modern stats also say Rham's been top ten of that group for pass blocking and top five in run blocking. That he's in the top third as a receiving target (catches as % of targets, contested catches) and top three of those 30 backs for the number of tackles he's broken/evaded after receptions. (Although he has zero "leaping over someone backward" plays).

What to make of all that?

That Disco has too much free time on his hands and should have been raking leaves instead of pulling this together? You probably have a case...

Nice post!

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Look at the RBs in the NFL.

Stevenson is not in the top 3rd.

Henry
Saquon
Bijan
Kyren
Kamara
Breece
McCaffrey
Taylor
Mixon
Aaron Jones
Swift
Gibbs
Conner
Cook
Dobbins
Hubbard
Montgomery
Pollard
Jacobs
Achane
Ken Walker

That's 21 guys that are better than Rham. He's barely in the top 2/3rds.

I think there’s a few of those that are certainly debatable and probably in the same tier as Stevenson. He catches pretty well, he blocks well, he is fairly effective at short yardage situations. He’s a better balanced back than some of the guys on your list.

But really, once you get past the top 4-5 guys, they’re all pretty interchangeable. You could have just as easily put another half dozen guys in that list (Tracy, Bigsby, Irving, Mason, Chase Brown, etc). The difference between the 12th and 24th RB is much smaller than between the 2nd and the 12th. It’s why re-signing Stevenson seems like a total waste of money. He’s clearly not, never has been, never will be, a top 5-8 guy. Anyone outside that tier isn’t worth paying unless perhaps you’re in your championship window and GFIN