So, what do we have here? Talent review a third of the way through the season

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

My memory of the research on this (a quick google search turned up this B/R article) is that defensive linemen who are good enough to start tend to hit peak effectiveness in year 3-4 and tend to play at a high level for 7-8 years before starting to decline.

White is 25. The average Dlineman is something like 22 when drafted. So, rule of thumb, let's say White projects to something like ~5 more years of peak play before he starts his athletic decline. White is cost-controlled on his cheap rookie deal for two more years

If we're trading that to Detriot we better be getting more than a third-round pick. White is an example of a second round pick who pans out. He's in the upside-scenario range for a first day pick, without the risk that he busts.

Fake edit: what @BaseballJones and @RSN Diaspora already said

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Boutte has been an interesting development. He was an bubble guy throughout camp, then essentially inactive for the first 2 games (technically active for the first game but he didn’t get a single snap) but over the past 4 weeks he has vaulted up the depth chart. Yesterday he played 83% of the offensive snaps, most of any skill player. Hasn’t done a ton receiving, only 7 catches on 8 targets but they appear to really like his blocking. Obviously flashed on the bomb from Maye yesterday.

To your point, last year he played 11% of the Patriots offensive snaps, nearly half of which came in the season opener when several guys were out injured. He was targeted 7 times and had 2 catches.

This year he has played 34% of the Patriots offensive snaps, but that workload has gradually been increasing, with 0%, 0%, 35%, 23%, 67%, and 83% in the 6 games. Five of his 8 targets are in the last 2 weeks and he has 5 catches for 93 yards, including yesterday's TD bomb.

I think Mayo said that He, the other KB, and Pop are the top 3 receivers right now.

I like the way you think here. White is an older player for his service time in the league and can obviously get to the QB which is what Detroit needs right now. If I could get a 3rd round pick for Keion White, is that enough value to make me want to move him? I don't know that I'd do it, but it's something to think about. On one hand this team has so many holes that voluntarily opening another one up is not ideal, but if the value is there......

Trading a promising second round pick in his second year for a third round pick does not seem like a good way to improve the roster.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

The chances that a 3rd round pick ever becomes as good as what White already is are very slim. Even if this is White’s final form (which is very questionable), he’s a useful player and far more useful than a low 3rd rounder is likely to be.

 

[Was (Not Wasdin)]

I'm convinced there's a kind of compounding effect to drafting. If you get a major hit at a premium position, lesser guys can step in and succeed because the gravity of the game is pulled over to the star player. Watching the Bengals right now and Higgins comes to mind. Think how much easier it is for Karloftis playing with Jones in KC. What's going to be key for this team in at least the next year or two is nailing the high R1 and R2 picks. If you pick that high you have to hit. Get a star LT and the whole line is improved markedly. Get a true WR1 and Douglas/Boutte/Polk are properly slotted and so on. You end up with more hits because guys are asked to do what they are capable of based on their talent.

Couldn't agree more with this, and that's why I'm not locked in to LT in next year's draft. Add a second stud CB, and not only are the other DBs slotted correctly, but the pass rush gets a little better because QBs need longer to throw. When you have premium players the universe of guys who can fill other roles gets wider-how many guys could have played LB behind the 2003-2004 Pats Defensive Lines?

The other thing is that positional/unit depth is really important. You can have two really good CBs, but if it is just ass below those two guys, good teams will attack the other DBs relentlessly. They have to keep adding talent at every position.

 

[Seels]

Where the Patriots are at, I am looking at their roster strictly from a building block standpoint. Here's my list

Tier 1--Building Blocks
--Drake Maye
--Christian Gonzalez
--Christian Barmore

Tier 2--Solid Role Players Under Longer-Term Contracts
--Keion White
--Mike Onwenu
--Kyle Dugger
--DeMario Douglas
--Brendan Schooler
--Hunter Henry
--Jahlani Tavai

That's it. That's your list to build around right now. The rest of the roster is filled with younger players who haven't proved much yet, older veteran players who won't be around for the next good team, or below average to below replacement level talent.

This makes sense to me. I probably wouldn't have Henry there, he's JAG imo, but these are the players that you can reasonably expect will be on the next competitive team. Pretty much no one else with what we currently know.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

This makes sense to me. I probably wouldn't have Henry there, he's JAG imo, but these are the players that you can reasonably expect will be on the next competitive team. Pretty much no one else with what we currently know.

Henry is arguably a top 10 TE in the NFL (closer to 10 than 1 certainly). Calling him JAG is a huge stretch.

TE play in the NFL has been pretty poor recently. How many TE are absolutely better than him? Kelce, Kittle, McBride, LaPorta, Bowers, Goeddert, Andrews. There’s a few who are pretty similar, Ferguson, Schultz, Freiermurh. Maybe Pitts and Kincaid if you ignore blocking.

He’s a reliable receiver and a passable (for today’s NFL) blocker. A dynamic threat? No but there aren’t many of those guys in the league. A solid 2nd or 3rd tier, decidedly above average TE? Yeah I’d say so.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Keion White is continuing to develop. Remember folks he barely played edge in college. In his second year he has made a huge leap as a pass rusher. He should continue to grow hopefully as a run defender. White has building block upside. Trading him now makes no sense to me since IDL and edges can play into their early 30s. Edge is also a hard spot to replace. I wouldn’t even consider trading him unless it is for a 1+ and that’s not happening. Plus this is Wolf… draft and develop. White is a classic draft and develop high ceiling guy.

 

[dynomite]

Yep. I said it at the time...I did not like signing him to that contract. He's fine to have on the team, and they had cap space available so whatever, but he's not remotely worth that kind of dough.

Right.

As far as I can tell on SporTrac there’s an out after 2026 with $0 in dead cap, so $5M, $5M, and $7M for his age 26/27/28 seasons is fine. That's not too different from what, say, the Giants are giving Devin Singletary right? Pats didn't give Stevenson a Saquan/Josh Jacobs/Swift/Henry contract, they gave him a "solid veteran RB contract.”

Couldn't agree more with this, and that's why I'm not locked in to LT in next year's draft. Add a second stud CB, and not only are the other DBs slotted correctly, but the pass rush gets a little better because QBs need longer to throw. When you have premium players the universe of guys who can fill other roles gets wider-how many guys could have played LB behind the 2003-2004 Pats Defensive Lines?

The other thing is that positional/unit depth is really important. You can have two really good CBs, but if it is just ass below those two guys, good teams will attack the other DBs relentlessly. They have to keep adding talent at every position.

This is the silver lining of having so much cap room and high draft picks in many rounds -- there are a lot of viable paths here. If there's no LT available at the top of the draft, we can sign a top free agent.

This is part of why I'm interested in people’s thoughts on Travis Hunter as a WR/DB. In a draft without elite top-end talent, he's one of the few "blue-chip" prospects, and of all teams the Patriots' recent history with Troy Brown & Edelman (both of whom have coached/played with Mayo) suggests we could find him good mentors.

Henry is arguably a top 10 TE in the NFL (closer to 10 than 1 certainly). Calling him JAG is a huge stretch.

I think this is part of the follow on problem of the Brady Pats era. Gronk was.. at the risk of saying something blasphemous... maybe a sort of Pedro of the TE position? His peak was arguably as high as anyone ever at the TE position, and obviously he also had Brady finding him perfectly on those throws, Edelman and White and others drawing coverage away from him, etc.

 

[8slim]

Henry’s a good TE. But he’s also almost 30. It seems unlikely that he’ll still be here, if he’s even still in the league, when this franchise is playoff caliber again. So I don’t necessarily see him as a building block in that sense (like Maye, White, Gonzalez, etc). He’s more of a good player we have to see us through these dark times.

 

[Devizier]

I am slightly worried that all the good wide receivers were picked just ahead of the Patriots’ selection. Early returns are looking that way.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I am slightly worried that all the good wide receivers were picked just ahead of the Patriots’ selection. Early returns are looking that way.

Whittington and McCaffrey seem promising although not guys who would have warranted consideration at 37. Some of the others have flashed but haven’t done much (Mitchell, Franklin) and others (Corley and Burton) have been very disappointing

But it’s still early days. I suspect one or two of the guys taken after Polk will have really productive careers. I think Wolf panicked a bit after the (predictable) run of WR at the end of round 1 and early round 2. Polk never had the kind of tools to really warrant early 2nd round consideration. If you’re taking a WR that high, it should be a guy with #1 upside and it would be a huge stretch to suggest Polk has that ability (certainly never demonstrated it in college)

 

[Bigdogx]

Well i just recieved a cbs sports app update saying Polk claims he has the best hands in the league , i mean really the entire league.... Can Mayo take him aside and talk with him and not do it through the media, this beef between him and Polk needs to be squashed.

 

[Justthetippett]

Whittington and McCaffrey seem promising although not guys who would have warranted consideration at 37. Some of the others have flashed but haven’t done much (Mitchell, Franklin) and others (Corley and Burton) have been very disappointing

But it’s still early days. I suspect one or two of the guys taken after Polk will have really productive careers. I think Wolf panicked a bit after the (predictable) run of WR at the end of round 1 and early round 2. Polk never had the kind of tools to really warrant early 2nd round consideration. If you’re taking a WR that high, it should be a guy with #1 upside and it would be a huge stretch to suggest Polk has that ability (certainly never demonstrated it in college)

It was rumored that they tried to trade back into R1 to have a better set of options (Coleman, Worthy, etc.) right? That would have cost them draft capital (or a guy like Judon) but maybe would have been the better play. I do think they focused too much on need and overdrafted both Polk and Wallace. That's the problem with a shitty roster. Patches needed everywhere.

 

[k-factory]

The gamble was on a WR with little separation but touted as someone with reliable hands and a big radius going after contested catches.
If the guy can’t get separation at the college level that’s a big red flag because the competition is obviously tougher in the NFL and those contested catches will be contested with greater competence.
I feel for the kid and he’s obviously trying to navigate his own confidence in adversity but outside of Maye this is looking like a tire fire of a draft.

 

[8slim]

Yesterday revealed just how far away we are in terms of offensive talent. The Jags are underachieving, yet they're markedly better than the Pats all over the field.

Bigsby seemed more dynamic than Rham and he's not even their #1 back. Thomas and Kirk are better than any of our WRs, which allows them to have Davis be the #3 guy that he is (and not have to pretend a #3 like Bourne is a #1/2). I'm not sure their OL is anything special when they're not road grading our awful front 7, but it has given up 30% fewer sacks than the Pats.

 

[Jinhocho]

I think it will be hard for us to tell, because BB was very good at coaching guys up and taking misfit toys and finding a way to make them play will within their skillset in his system. It seems clear to me that that is now gone gone gone with the new regime, at least as how we were used to seeing it play out. I cannot think of many guys who appear to have been coached up (despite the huge staff) to play better or are doing more than their talent indicates. Indeed many seem to be performing worse.

I will say that I think:

Gonzalez is not as good as we think he is (but he is very good)
White has been somewhat as advertised, but those penalties and some disappearing moments worry me a bit
Douglas seems solid and room to grow
Dugger is as advertised
Boutte is tantalizing

I think if BB were coaching the current team that Maye might have started (Bill was willing to be bold), that the defense would be playing better, that the strategery would be better, and a lot of guys would be looking like gang busters. It is just really hard to tell with how bad the coaching has been and the significant drop in discipline, scheme, and adjustments.

 

[8slim]

I think it will be hard for us to tell, because BB was very good at coaching guys up and taking misfit toys and finding a way to make them play will within their skillset in his system. It seems clear to me that that is now gone gone gone with the new regime, at least as how we were used to seeing it play out. I cannot think of many guys who appear to have been coached up (despite the huge staff) to play better or are doing more than their talent indicates. Indeed many seem to be performing worse.

I will say that I think:

Gonzalez is not as good as we think he is (but he is very good)
White has been somewhat as advertised, but those penalties and some disappearing moments worry me a bit
Douglas seems solid and room to grow
Dugger is as advertised
Boutte is tantalizing

I think if BB were coaching the current team that Maye might have started (Bill was willing to be bold), that the defense would be playing better, that the strategery would be better, and a lot of guys would be looking like gang busters. It is just really hard to tell with how bad the coaching has been and the significant drop in discipline, scheme, and adjustments.

I don't know. BB won 4 games with a team that looks a lot like this one. Maybe Maye would net him more but that's hard to quantify. Plus, would BoB still be the OC? He might have jumped to BC even if BB was still here. So then we'd have more turnover in offensive leadership, and who knows what happens then.

I'm not saying the coaching has been good. Clearly yesterday's result shows its not. But I don't know if that's making a meaningful impact on assessing the talent level of the team. It's bad, really bad. Maybe coaching takes it from 1-2 win bad to 4 win bad, but that doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think it will be hard for us to tell, because BB was very good at coaching guys up and taking misfit toys and finding a way to make them play will within their skillset in his system. It seems clear to me that that is now gone gone gone with the new regime, at least as how we were used to seeing it play out. I cannot think of many guys who appear to have been coached up (despite the huge staff) to play better or are doing more than their talent indicates. Indeed many seem to be performing worse.

I will say that I thin
Gonzalez is not as good as we think he is (but he is very good)
White has been somewhat as advertised, but those penalties and some disappearing moments worry me a bit
Douglas seems solid and room to grow
Dugger is as advertised
Boutte is tantalizing

I think if BB were coaching the current team that Maye might have started (Bill was willing to be bold), that the defense would be playing better, that the strategery would be better, and a lot of guys would be looking like gang busters. It is just really hard to tell with how bad the coaching has been and the significant drop in discipline, scheme, and adjustments.

So my general thoughts on these:
Gonzo is really good
White is.... maybe less good than people think? He's gotten good (but declining) pressure, but he's turned into a bit of a liability against the run.
Douglas... nice little slot, he'd be a great 3rd WR,
Dugger... he's good.
Boutte... I love the hands... I don't think he gets open... seems like another #3 WR.

For others...
There are a number of good solid players within their roles on the D (but many being asked to work beyond that and struggling).
On Offense.... I think it's too early to give up on Polk. His last couple weeks have been a nightmare, but he's not even halfway through his rookie year, and he's getting better separation than most of our guys, I can still see the Robert Woods top #2 in there if he can just work on finishing catches.
Onwenu is a good RG if they can ever get healthy enough to stick him there.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Gonzalez is not as good as we think he is (but he is very good)
White has been somewhat as advertised, but those penalties and some disappearing moments worry me a bit
Douglas seems solid and room to grow
Dugger is as advertised
Boutte is tantalizing

I think I disagree on Gonzalez. I think he is that good, but looks worse than he is because the rest of the defense is a mess.

I think White is one of the culprits who is freelancing to the detriment of the team.

Douglas is the one receiver on the team who can consistently get open, but is small and injury prone.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I think I disagree on Gonzalez. I think he is that good, but looks worse than he is because the rest of the defense is a mess.

I think White is one of the culprits who is freelancing to the detriment of the team.

Douglas is the one receiver on the team who can consistently get open, but is small and injury prone.

Douglas is injury prone? Based on what? He came out of the game last week with illness. Had a concussion last year. I don’t really see much to indicate he’s injury prone.

 

[Auger34]

I don't know. BB won 4 games with a team that looks a lot like this one. Maybe Maye would net him more but that's hard to quantify. Plus, would BoB still be the OC? He might have jumped to BC even if BB was still here. So then we'd have more turnover in offensive leadership, and who knows what happens then.

I'm not saying the coaching has been good. Clearly yesterday's result shows its not. But I don't know if that's making a meaningful impact on assessing the talent level of the team. It's bad, really bad. Maybe coaching takes it from 1-2 win bad to 4 win bad, but that doesn't matter much in the grand scheme of things.

Completely agree with this.

The coaching may be bad (maybe even really bad) but the roster is putrid, especially on offense. It's a bad team and those extra 2-3 wins would do nothing but lower the draft position.