Okay I can't get the chart perfect but hopefully y'all get the idea. Those are all my half marathons, plus the two marathons, that I've run since we started this little thread.
[tablegrid= Distance Runs ]
Race | Time | Pace | Distance PR Change | Course PR Change | VDOT | VDOT Marathon | MacMillan Marathon | 2xHalf+10 | Jack Daniels | Runners's World |
2013 R2R | 1:29:14 | 0:06:49 | 0:03:24 | 0:06:28 | 51 | 3:07:39 | 3:07:48 | 3:08:28 | 3:06:03 | 3:06:03 |
2012 BAA | 1:32:38 | 0:07:04 | 0:03:04 | 0:09:00 | 49 | 3:14:06 | 3:14:57 | 3:15:16 | 3:13:03 | 3:13:08 |
2012 R2R | 1:35:42 | 0:07:18 | 0:05:56 | 0:15:33 | 47 | 3:21:00 | 3:21:24 | 3:21:24 | 3:19:10 | 3:19:32 |
2011 BAA | 1:41:38 | 0:07:45 | 0:03:46 | 0:03:46 | 44 | 3:32:23 | 3:33:53 | 3:33:16 | 3:31:07 | 3:31:54 |
2011 R2R | 2:01:20 | 0:09:16 | | | 35 | 4:16:03 | 4:15:21 | 4:12:40 | 4:10:15 | 4:12:58 |
2008 BAA | 1:45:24 | 0:08:03 | 0:05:51 | | 42 | 3:40:43 | 3:41:49 | 3:40:48 | 3:38:56 | 3:39:45 |
2008 R2R | 1:51:15 | 0:08:30 | 0:07:01 | 0:07:01 | 39 | 3:54:34 | 3:54:08 | 3:52:30 | 3:50:39 | 3:51:57 |
2008 PHX | 4:16:48 | 0:09:48 | 0:00:55 | | 34 | 4:22:03 | | | | |
2007 BSM | 4:17:43 | 0:09:50 | | | 34 | 4:22:03 | | | | |
2007 R2R | 1:58:16 | 0:09:02 | | | 37 | 4:04:50 | 4:08:58 | 4:06:32 | 4:04:14 | 4:06:35 |
[/tablegrid]
BAA = BAA Half Marathon in October, R2R = Run to Remember Half Marathon in May, PHX = Phoenix Marathon in January 2008, BSM = Baystate Marathon in Lowell in October 2007.
For those who don't remember, after the 2008 BAA Half, I had about 2.5 years of injuries and setbacks, and then a transition from extreme heel-striking in thick-soled shoes to forefoot striking in VFFs. So that 2011 R2R is in italics because I wasn't running it all out - I was just trying to finish. The BAA Half in 2011 was my return to where I left off three years earlier and that still hurts to type.
So, as you can see, I've always taken at least three minutes off my half marathon PR, and often take bigger chunks out of my PR for any given race, year to year. That suggests that, if I ran the BAA Half this coming October, I could get down around 1:26. So here's the question: can I BQ instead?
After running my first two marathons within three months of each other, I decided that actually running marathons was a bad way to train for them, since they take me so long to recover from. That leaves me with limited options for choosing a race to BQ with, since I'd like it to be local (for logistics) and familiar. So that only leaves me Baystate, which is fine, since it's popular for BQ'ing and for good reasons. Unfortunately it's no longer practical for actually getting a bib, since the BAA pushed up their registration date. People who BQ'd last year at Baystate have to wait for 2014 to try for a bib.
But my goal is the BQ. The bib is separate.
So over to the right are the results of various pace calculators, based on these half marathon times. I need 3:05:00 to qualify for the 2015 Marathon. By 2016, I'll be 35, and this all becomes academic, because I'll clearly be able to beat 3:10:00 by then. My original goal was to BQ before turning 30, so qualifying by falling out of my age group will feel like extra failure.
With
VDOT, I'd need at least a 52, with 53 being much more solid, but I seem clearly on track for that. It also seems to be in the middle of the pack as far as projection along with
MacMillan, with
Jack Daniels and
Runner's World being more optimistic, and the "double your half time and add ten minutes" rule of thumb being the most pessimistic.
While I'm happy with Sunday's 1:29:14, I would have been far happier with 1:27:30. I really don't want to wind up in a situation where I kill myself trying to squeeze in under 3:04:59. And I would, because I'm like that, so I'd rather have some cushion.
My other worry is that, well, I
haven't run a marathon in five years. Both times, I had good first halves, and then broke down in the back halves. In Lowell, I remember doing like 1:58 in the first half, but then I broke down at 16 miles and had to stop and walk for a while, but then I recovered and finished well enough. Then in Phoenix, I had a similar first half and slowed in the second, but I was fine and feeling strong and on pace to knock about five minutes off my time, when my left hamstring tried to secede from my body in the 24th mile, and I barely managed to limp to a PR.
Still, I'm a much more experienced runner now, and I'll have a much better mileage base than I had for those runs. I ran a couple of 20 milers this spring at 8:00 and felt fine afterwards, and those crush almost every run in this chart.
Thoughts?