Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

[LesterFan]

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal

#RedSox have agreement in principle for #DBacks’ Miley, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. AZ will get Webster, De La Rosa and a minor leaguer.

 

[jimbobim]

Rosenthl reporting Webster De La Rosa and a minor leaguer for Miley ... 
 
Not terrible De La Rosa is a pretty good chip... 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Alive!

Rosenthal:

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/542874144837087232

https://twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/542874144837087232

link to tweet

 

[Steve22]

I can't help but feel like RDLR and Webster would have been more valuable as smaller pieces in a deal for a better pitcher. 
 
Yikes.
 
Really don't know what to think about this one. 

 

[czar]

I know he's only under contract for one more year, but Samardzija cost less than Webster/RDLR/+.
 
And I like Miley...

 

[Youks Baltic Roots]

Wow, I generally give them the benefit of the doubt, but that trade sucks.

Yeah, I think I have to agree. I just hope if that is true that maybe there is more coming our way as well.

 

[Why Not Grebeck?]

I don't hate it. Both of those guys have a shot at being who Miley is right now. It's possible they'll both get there, or one of them, or neither of them. It's not an exciting move because we're trading upside for a relatively known commodity, but I do think it makes the 2015 Sox better.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

that seems like too much.
 
They must view RDLR and Webster as bullpen arms? Not to mention the minor leaguer.
 
I wonder if another piece from ARZ is coming...Oliver Perez?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Two probable bullpen arms for Miley? Seems OK to me.

 

[jarv]

As a non-Sox fan I can only assume the Sox see something in Miley that can be changed to improve him. Only reason I think they've been so dead set on him.

 

[mloyko54]

I feel like people have dramatically overrated both Webster and RDLR. I had no doubt these were the most likely pitchers they were moving. 

 

[MakMan44]

Yeah, that seems like more than I'd want to give up. I think Miley is going to be better than the pair, but this really makes me wonder if they planned to give the kids a chance in the 5th SP slot. 

 

[czar]

As a non-Sox fan I can only assume the Sox see something in Miley that can be changed to improve him. Only reason I think they've been so dead set on him.

 
More likely, they believe his K% was for real last season. If 2014 Wade Miley shows up every year going forward, he's a #2/3. Question is whether that Miley is here to stay.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

That trade is horrible. Ben just got owned by Dave Stewart. Both guys the Sox gave up have a shot to be better than a #3 like Miley...and a 3rd minor leaguer too...Ben got robbed.

 

[MakMan44]

I feel like people have dramatically overrated both Webster and RDLR. I had no doubt these were the most likely pitchers they were moving. 

Really? Because they're the most talented of the young arms excluding ERod and Owens. 
 
EDIT: Tyrone, do you mean in the future or next season? Because I can buy the former but disagree with the latter. 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

From a scout friend:  "You will really like Miley.  Great dude too."  Trying to see what he thinks of the trade overall.

 

[Rasputin]

Really? Because they're the most talented of the young arms. 
 
EDIT: Tyrone, do you mean in the future or next season? Because I can buy the former but disagree with the latter. 

No they aren't. The most advanced, sure. The highest upside, no.

Hate the trade.

 

[Steve22]

Really? Because they're the most talented of the young arms. 

 
How do you figure? 
 
Owens and Rodriguez are almost certainly consensus better prospects at this point and you could make a compelling case for Barnes, Ranaudo, and Johnson as well (in my opinion at least).

 

[glennhoffmania]

I wasn't sold on Webster, but I really had pretty high hopes for RDLR.  I'm not a fan of this trade.  I think they'll look back on this in a couple of years when RDLR is pitching very well and regret it.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Really? Because they're the most talented of the young arms. 
 
EDIT: Tyrone, do you mean in the future or next season? Because I can buy the former but disagree with the latter. 

I certainly think with Miley's walk numbers that it's possible for sooner rather than later.

 

[MakMan44]

No they aren't. The most advanced, sure. The highest upside, no.

Hate the trade.

I'm talking about guys like Barnes and Ranaudo. ERod and Owens are a class above them, and I should have made that more clear. 

 

[4-6-3]

I know Miley logs some innings but it seems like a little too much.  Maybe he's part of a bigger plan?

 

[Gash Prex]

That's a lot to give up but he's not a 1 year rental and has a good track record. Certainly the price of doing business on a cost controlled lefty starter

 

[RedOctober3829]

Both Webster and RDLR are potential solid arms, but Miley has pitched nearly 200 IP 3 straight years and has pitched better than his numbers have indicated the past 2 seasons.  He's a cheap rotation arm who will be an innings-eater at the very least.  If this is all they do, then yes criticize.  But, I feel there is more coming down the pipe.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

That trade is horrible. Ben just got owned by Dave Stewart. Both guys the Sox gave up have a shot to be better than a #3 like Miley...and a 3rd minor leaguer too...Ben got robbed.

Have a shot, yes. But not much of a shot. There's also a decent chance that one or both top out as middle relievers.

 

[czar]

I certainly think with Miley's walk numbers that it's possible for sooner rather than later.

 
His 2014 walk rate was like half a percent above league average. Two years ago he was walking guys at HALF the rate of league average.
 
He's not Carlos Marmol out there.

 

[curly2]

 
More likely, they believe his K% was for real last season. If 2014 Wade Miley shows up every year going forward, he's a #2/3. Question is whether that Miley is here to stay.

 
2014 Miley struck out a lot of guys but also has the highest rates of hits, walks and homers allowed in his career.

 

[KillerBs]

People are under rating Allen Webster. His ml numbers are a lot better than Miley's ever were. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I wasn't sold on Webster, but I really had pretty high hopes for RDLR.  I'm not a fan of this trade.  I think they'll look back on this in a couple of years when RDLR is pitching very well and regret it.

Yeah, maybe I'm too high on RDLR, but I really like his arm.  I do like Miley quite a bit, but I wish we could have kept Rubby.

 

[Rasputin]

I'm talking about guys like Barnes and Ranaudo. ERod and Owens are a class above them, and I should have made that more clear. 

Or, you know, mentioned it at all.

Loathe the trade. We're probably more likely to get something pretty decent out of the five spot, but we still need to bring in two top of the rotation guys.

Loathe.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

This is a solid trade, but would have nitpicked and preferred trying to do it for Webster and Barnes, for example.  Had high hopes for RDLR, even if it was as a really usefull bullpen arm.
 
That said--this is a good trade. We have an insane surplus of starting pitching. Guessing this means the other SP comes from FA though.

 

[4-6-3]

And....who's the minor leaguer?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I certainly think with Miley's walk numbers that it's possible for sooner rather than later.

How good were AZ catchers at framing? Maybe Vazquez helps him cut down the walls a bit.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Seriously if Miley isn't getting flipped for Hamels then this is terrible. Webster is extremely underrated.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

And....who's the minor leaguer?

 Some guy named Manuel Margot.

 

[jarv]

That BABIP from last year should come down a good 20-25 points. If that makes anyone feel better.

 

[Rasputin]

 Some guy named Manuel Margot.

This is a joke, right?

 

[czar]

 
2014 Miley struck out a lot of guys but also has the highest rates of hits, walks and homers allowed in his career.

 
Not worried about hits and homers since batted ball profile has been pretty flat last 3 years. Walks up a tick, but worst case they offset some of the K% gain.
 
3.50 xFIP and 3.67 SIERA will play to above AL-average. Question is whether he can repeat the underlying numbers (or keep trending up). Otherwise, 4.00 xFIP/SIERA Wade Miley is less exciting.

 

[jimbobim]

Really would be fitting if the minor leaguer is WMB

 

[Ferm Sheller]

This is a joke, right?

 
Yes, sorry.  I shouldn't joke like that.

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

I think the perception of the cost between Miley and Samardzija are skewed in that the Sox control Miley for 3 years, while the White Sox control Samardzija for only 1.  Likewise, Samardzija will require a sizable extension, while Miley will not, at least for a couple of seasons. I think Ben showed it with Kelly too, but the ability to cost-control an asset is huge in this league and that comes at a price. De la Rosa was certainly the better of the two, but I'd give him up for a guy who is already doing what we hope De la Rosa could do. 

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

This is a solid trade, but would have nitpicked and preferred trying to do it for Webster and Barnes, for example.  Had high hopes for RDLR, even if it was as a really usefull bullpen arm.
 
That said--this is a good trade. We have an insane surplus of starting pitching. Guessing this means the other SP comes from FA though.

I think this means that the Sox are going to get 2 more pitchers, 1 via trade, probably highlighted by Cespedes, and one FA.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I'm not a fan of both Webster and RDLR being traded for him. Never mind if the prospect is anyone substantial. I was intrigued by the rumor because I didn't think it would cost too much to get him. There is a pretty good chance we end up looking back at this trade with regret. Both of them have a higher ceiling than Miley.

 

[Auger34]

I feel like people have dramatically overrated both Webster and RDLR. I had no doubt these were the most likely pitchers they were moving. 

I am disappointed they moved both in this trade. I think RDLR and Ranaudo would have been a much more fair trade and the Sox would get to keep Webster and hope he learns to harness his stuff

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Seriously if Miley isn't getting flipped for Hamels then this is terrible. Webster is extremely underrated.

As much as I hate seeing them giving up RDLR, Webster is just not a good pitcher. If anything he's been the definition of overrated.

 

[jarv]

Wait, De La Rosa was the main piece of the Dodgers trade right?

You guys shed 249 trillions dollars of payroll in exchange for a World Series and Wade Miley. That's a pretty damn good deal.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

I think this means that the Sox are going to get 2 more pitchers, 1 via trade, probably highlighted by Cespedes, and one FA.

You're absolutely right--I'd forgotten about the Cespedes situation. Cespedes trade, someone like McCarthy on FA, and suddenly this is a really solid rotation.

 

[Max Venerable]

I'm in favor of this trade.  Webster and Rubby are both talented arms that have had a shot to put it together already at the ML level and have not been able to do so consistently.  When Miley was the same age as Rubby is now, he was putting up a 122 ERA+ season in the NL.  If the FO thought that either of our kids could do that, they would not be gone now.
 
Fill a rotational slot with a youngish, cost controlled known quantity that improves the team, and keep the wheel turning.  Wont be long before Owens and Rodriguez might be pushing innings anyway, both of whom seem to have better upside than Webster and RDLR.

 

[gammoseditor]

Wait, De La Rosa was the main piece of the Dodgers trade right?

You guys shed 249 trillions dollars of payroll in exchange for a World Series and Wade Miley. That's a pretty damn good deal.

 
That was a great trade already.  I don't see why it should be part of this analysis.  

 

[cahlton]

Here's Cameron on the Miley deal:
 
Quote

 
While I recognize that I probably like pitchers in the mold of Wade Miley more than most, my early take — without knowing who the third prospect is, which could change things — is that this is a pretty nifty upgrade for the Red Sox.

http://www.fangraphs...ire-wade-miley/
 
[N.B.: Tried to post this earlier but the thread was locked for some reason. It's cross-posted to the Trading for Starting Pitching thread. Apologies for the dupe post.]