Spring Training 2021

Yo La Tengo

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 21, 2005
913
Any insight on Chris Sale's rehab? Haven't seen much news recently about his activities during spring training.

I know Sale's schedule was pushed back earlier this winter, and every rehab is different, but I couldn't help but notice that Noah Syndergaard was throwing 96 off a mound earlier today.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,376
Eovaldi getting lit up again. I know it’s only spring training but is anyone even a little bit concerned about him?
 

Vermonter At Large

SoxFan
Moderator
SoSH Member
All of the above? In Bogaerts absence so far this spring, Arroyo has, including today, started six times at short. Hernandez has started there in five games, Gonzalez in two. That seems like a reasonable sample size for who Cora views as a back up option at SS.
A-yup. And in the event of needing a SS for more than a day or two here and there, I suspect Jeter Downs or possibly Arauz would get a call-up.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
6,348
I'm finding it odd that the regular season will be starting up in just 10 days and there's a noticeable lack of posting in this forum. I'm actually incredibly excited and positive about '21 for the Sox... but are other posters just not feeling it?
As to why I haven't bothered starting up standard new threads "predictions" "things to look forward to" "things to be worried about", etc...... it's been the most busy and stressful last month and a half of probably my entire life. Just like to be able to look at my phone occasionally out in the field and follow some of the great posters insights about the upcoming season... but it hasn't been happening. Come on y'all!
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,660
I'm finding it odd that the regular season will be starting up in just 10 days and there's a noticeable lack of posting in this forum. I'm actually incredibly excited and positive about '21 for the Sox... but are other posters just not feeling it?
As to why I haven't bothered starting up standard new threads "predictions" "things to look forward to" "things to be worried about", etc...... it's been the most busy and stressful last month and a half of probably my entire life. Just like to be able to look at my phone occasionally out in the field and follow some of the great posters insights about the upcoming season... but it hasn't been happening. Come on y'all!
I find I’m dealing with an inordinate amount of spring cleaning that couldn’t happen last year but you’re right that there’s plenty to get excited for in this upcoming season, even if we’re hardly a lock for the playoffs.

I can’t remember the last Sox team with so many potential breakout players and untapped upside. I’m excited to see what we have in Cordero, Pivetta, Kiké, Whitlock, Dalbec, Renfroe, Santana, Richards, and Sawamura, with plenty of other intriguing guys in the high minors (Downs, Duran, Ronaldo, Seabold, Casas, Houck, Tyreque Reed, Wong, Jimenez, Potts and Rosario).

Feel like I’m listing half the team here, but I could make a case why each could outperform expectations. Building a team with so many scattered pockets of upside may be a little more volatile than the teams that DD put together, which were built for stability. But I think it’s exactly what we need to do in order to play in the trade market, which is where the final pieces for the Next Great Team will come from.
 

landsdowneteaparty

New Member
Aug 30, 2010
7
Brooklyn, NY
I'm finding it odd that the regular season will be starting up in just 10 days and there's a noticeable lack of posting in this forum. I'm actually incredibly excited and positive about '21 for the Sox... but are other posters just not feeling it?
As to why I haven't bothered starting up standard new threads "predictions" "things to look forward to" "things to be worried about", etc...... it's been the most busy and stressful last month and a half of probably my entire life. Just like to be able to look at my phone occasionally out in the field and follow some of the great posters insights about the upcoming season... but it hasn't been happening. Come on y'all!
Nothing to see here, folks. It's an experiment worthy of the Devil Rays last place finishes from 1998-2007. The rest is all-hype, smoke, and mirrors, and I'm not buying it. Desperate as I am like everyone else for some good baseball, this will be a rough season to stomach. For half the value of his super-yacht Henry could have offered Mookie everything he got from LA.
 

Max Power

thai good. you like shirt?
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
7,878
Boston, MA
It's a couple of things. As we all slowly return to "normal," we're trying to figure out where baseball fits in. A lot of people kind of skipped out on 2020, so it's been a year and a half since baseball has been part of their daily lives.

The roster turnover hurts, too. Mookie, Jackie, and Benintendi are all gone. Franchie and Kike could be a lot of fun to watch, but it's going to take a little while to warm up to the new guys.

I haven't watched more than a couple innings of spring training, although I never really do. But I am looking forward to getting back inside the ballpark in a couple weeks. That's when my interest in the team will kick in.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nothing to see here, folks. It's an experiment worthy of the Devil Rays last place finishes from 1998-2007. The rest is all-hype, smoke, and mirrors, and I'm not buying it. Desperate as I am like everyone else for some good baseball, this will be a rough season to stomach. For half the value of his super-yacht Henry could have offered Mookie everything he got from LA.
You do understand it isn’t as simple as all that, right?
 

Beomoose

is insoxicated
SoSH Member
May 28, 2006
21,391
Exiled
My feelings are pretty similar to Max's
It's a couple of things. As we all slowly return to "normal," we're trying to figure out where baseball fits in. A lot of people kind of skipped out on 2020, so it's been a year and a half since baseball has been part of their daily lives.

The roster turnover hurts, too. Mookie, Jackie, and Benintendi are all gone. Franchie and Kike could be a lot of fun to watch, but it's going to take a little while to warm up to the new guys.

I haven't watched more than a couple innings of spring training, although I never really do. But I am looking forward to getting back inside the ballpark in a couple weeks. That's when my interest in the team will kick in.
I'm hoping that I'll be back in the mood to talk baseball when I'm able to catch games on TV regularly, especially if some of the new guys step up.
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
Nothing to see here, folks. It's an experiment worthy of the Devil Rays last place finishes from 1998-2007. The rest is all-hype, smoke, and mirrors, and I'm not buying it. Desperate as I am like everyone else for some good baseball, this will be a rough season to stomach. For half the value of his super-yacht Henry could have offered Mookie everything he got from LA.
I'm actually all in on it and looking forward to how it shakes out. Ideally I'd love to have another established, big bat in the line up, one or two more solid, dependable arms behind Eduardo and an established closer. Who wouldn't, right? But this team is not financially structured for that and with the players that Bloom has brought in as well as the return of Cora, I'm anxious to see what develops here.
 

InsideTheParker

persists in error
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
40,371
Pioneer Valley
From the little I've seen so far, I am impressed by Whitlock, Rodriguez, Hernandez, Dalbec and Verdugo.
I am interested in Gonzalez, and some of the other guys who could make for a 2013 type of season, if we get very lucky. Not at all sure about Eovaldi, Perez and Pivetta. And who is the #5, again?
I expect my interest to perk up after April Fools Day.
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,253
I am interested in Gonzalez, and some of the other guys who could make for a 2013 type of season, if we get very lucky. Not at all sure about Eovaldi, Perez and Pivetta. And who is the #5, again?
Richards is who you forgot about, and is slotted at #2 right now ahead of those 3 guys.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
I’ve learned never to be excited or depressed about the generally meaningless Spring Training looks.

The best thing about Spring Training is its signal that winter’s over and that anything is possible
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
Of course it's not that simple; FSG is very busy with Liverpool in a sports/entertainment market with virtually no public oversight. Fans should understand the team as part of a multinational whose capital investments always seek maximum return.
That would help explain why the Sox have been so totally devoid of success since FSG took over LFC.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,405
It's a couple of things. As we all slowly return to "normal," we're trying to figure out where baseball fits in. A lot of people kind of skipped out on 2020, so it's been a year and a half since baseball has been part of their daily lives.

The roster turnover hurts, too. Mookie, Jackie, and Benintendi are all gone. Franchie and Kike could be a lot of fun to watch, but it's going to take a little while to warm up to the new guys.

I haven't watched more than a couple innings of spring training, although I never really do. But I am looking forward to getting back inside the ballpark in a couple weeks. That's when my interest in the team will kick in.
To this I would add: what is there to discuss at the moment? The roster is basically set, and the team’s insistence on flexibility means that there aren’t really positional battles, either. Not that there aren’t questions or reasons for excitement, but they’re basically the same ones that existed a month ago, and we probably won’t have clarity on most of them until mid-May or so.

If they make a significant move or some other event shakes things up, I’m sure there will be a thread about it, but right now we’re just kind of waiting for the games to count.
 

Pitt the Elder

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 7, 2013
4,419
I'm finding it odd that the regular season will be starting up in just 10 days and there's a noticeable lack of posting in this forum. I'm actually incredibly excited and positive about '21 for the Sox... but are other posters just not feeling it?
As to why I haven't bothered starting up standard new threads "predictions" "things to look forward to" "things to be worried about", etc...... it's been the most busy and stressful last month and a half of probably my entire life. Just like to be able to look at my phone occasionally out in the field and follow some of the great posters insights about the upcoming season... but it hasn't been happening. Come on y'all!
For me, I think I'm slowly starting to come back online to engage with things other than my work and family that don't have anything to do with Trump or the pandemic. Today, as I was doing yard work, I popped on a fantasy baseball podcast rather than one of the dozen or so news and politics podcasts I've been mainlining for the past year and, in some cases, the past 4. I really hope this trend continues, because life is really more enjoyable where I can spend my free time thinking about baseball and football rather than the various be ways the world might end.
 

Leskanic's Thread

lost underscore
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
2,774
Los Angeles
As others have said, I checked out a lot on baseball last year -- there was the weight of everything else going on in the world combined with it being impossible to ignore how much it felt like only a facade of normalcy to play games in empty ballparks. In a time when so much denial ran rampant, adjacent denial wasn't as relaxing and comforting as the sport should have been.

I am ready to reboot for this season. I can't wait to sit back and root for the Killer B's at the plate and in the hold on I'm being handed an update here...

Eovaldi getting lit up again. I know it’s only spring training but is anyone even a little bit concerned about him?
Spring is always a good time to remember what hat Iverson was wearing when he gave his infamous "we talkin' 'bout practice" press conference:

 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Of course it's not that simple; FSG is very busy with Liverpool in a sports/entertainment market with virtually no public oversight. Fans should understand the team as part of a multinational whose capital investments always seek maximum return.
That would help explain why the Sox have been so totally devoid of success since FSG took over LFC.
As Joe pointed out, you DON'T understand it's not as simple as just spending the money. Good to know
 

CapeCodYaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 24, 2020
68
Nothing to see here, folks. It's an experiment worthy of the Devil Rays last place finishes from 1998-2007. The rest is all-hype, smoke, and mirrors, and I'm not buying it. Desperate as I am like everyone else for some good baseball, this will be a rough season to stomach. For half the value of his super-yacht Henry could have offered Mookie everything he got from LA.
agree---the new folks might be exciting but no upgrades in starting pitching is going to kill them
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
agree---the new folks might be exciting but no upgrades in starting pitching is going to kill them
No upgrades? Sorry, no. Garrett Richards and the return of E-Rod are significant upgrades over last year's parade of "who?" that followed Eovaldi and Perez. Pivetta and Houck are promising as well. And Sale is going to be a built in mid-season acquisition.

It's not the 90s Braves, but it isn't exactly a black hole of suck either.
 

landsdowneteaparty

New Member
Aug 30, 2010
7
Brooklyn, NY
They've won two world series in the time you said they've been "devoid of success" and now you're going to get petty and petulant asking a stupid question of one of the site's most respected posters over an issue that we must have had 10,000+ posts about this time last year. If you still don't understand why the team's payroll management is marginally more complicated than "CUT A CHECK HENRY!!!!!" then you're probably on the wrong board.
Sorry, you're quoting someone else. Maybe you should read the board. I was referring only to the Betts contract.
 

ramfan

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
132
There never seems to be any discussions on the impact of exceeding the luxury tax other than John Henry's money. The penalties of reduction of draft pool money and international signing money has a big impact on an organization that's trying to rebuild it's farm system.There's a reason even the Yankees try to avoid it. I'd love to know more about it and the details, i do know it's significant.

The John Henry cares more about Liverpool narrative was started by sports radio hosts such as Adam Jones and again this weekend with Matt McCarthy. It's not shocking some listeners use what they hear as a reference of fact.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,243
agree---the new folks might be exciting but no upgrades in starting pitching is going to kill them
ERod alone is likely to be 10 or so wins better than whatever dreck they trotted out last year to replace him. That's roughly a 90-win team without considering that Pivetta and Richards, even if they are league average or slightly below, will be a massive improvement over said dreck.
 

shaggydog2000

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2007
11,483
There never seems to be any discussions on the impact of exceeding the luxury tax other than John Henry's money. The penalties of reduction of draft pool money and international signing money has a big impact on an organization that's trying to rebuild it's farm system.There's a reason even the Yankees try to avoid it. I'd love to know more about it and the details, i do know it's significant.

The John Henry cares more about Liverpool narrative was started by sports radio hosts such as Adam Jones and again this weekend with Matt McCarthy. It's not shocking some listeners use what they hear as a reference of fact.
I think we've talked about it pretty often when people have asserted the "it's only money" argument. I'm kind of tired of googling the exact rules at this point.

"The owner doesn't care if your team wins" argument is pretty standard for media trolls as well. Sometimes it's somewhat true, but it clearly isn't here. The team has won championships on a regular basis under this ownership group, have consistently been in the top 3-4 in yearly team salary (and often in the #1 spot), and the owners have been proactive about changing leadership groups that don't seem to be working. They're the owners every team's fans should want.
 

Earthbound64

Member
SoSH Member
The John Henry cares more about Liverpool narrative was started by sports radio hosts such as Adam Jones and again this weekend with Matt McCarthy. It's not shocking some listeners use what they hear as a reference of fact.
And on the other side of the pond, there's still often in Liverpool the feeling that Henry et al. are just in it for the money and are getting ready to gut and sell the club.
 

Rwillh11

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
225
And on the other side of the pond, there's still often in Liverpool the feeling that Henry et al. are just in it for the money and are getting ready to gut and sell the club.
Which is similarly ironic given that the ownership group has basically pulled Liverpool out of mid-table mediocrity and routinely missing top-4 to a Premier League title and a Champions League win. And they run the 3rd (basically tied for second) highest pay-roll over there.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
23,335
The gran facenda
Sorry, you're quoting someone else. Maybe you should read the board. I was referring only to the Betts contract.
We had multiple discussions of the Betts trade and what signing him to a long term deal would mean to the team going forward when it happened. We are all aware of what not signing him and trading him meant to the future of the Sox, including how signing him to a mega deal would hamper the team in the future. If you're curious about what was posted here I recommend that you go and read those threads. They aren't difficult to find. This is the team we have. How about we talk about this team in this thread.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
I'm looking forward to this season with a greater interest than I had prior to the 2020 season (even before the pandemic). I'm glad Cora is back. I believe the 2021 squad is going to at minimum compete for a wild-card berth and be fun to watch. I like what I see of Chaim's approach to team-building and I believe his front office is on the right track to building a sustainably winning team and breaking the boom-or-bust cycle that the Red Sox have been stuck in over the past decade.

Honestly, if people want to be mad at anyone, I still contend that they should be pissed at Dave Dombrowski. His methods led to a few years of contention and one glorious season and a title, but it was followed by some poor personnel decisions that resulted in a completely unsustainable situation that guaranteed a choice between trading Mookie (or letting him walk), or re-signing him and almost certainly severely limiting the team's ability to put talent around him during his peak years. It's also not like 2018-19 was a repeat of 2007-08 where a World Series title was followed by a disappointing but thrilling run to game 7 of the ALCS. That 2019 team was a massive disappointment that got throttled by the Yankees and Rays when it counted most, and would have still had major question marks even if Mookie been kept for 2020. This was not some colossus that was unfairly broken up too soon. Just my $.02 worth.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
There never seems to be any discussions on the impact of exceeding the luxury tax other than John Henry's money. The penalties of reduction of draft pool money and international signing money has a big impact on an organization that's trying to rebuild it's farm system.There's a reason even the Yankees try to avoid it. I'd love to know more about it and the details, i do know it's significant.

The John Henry cares more about Liverpool narrative was started by sports radio hosts such as Adam Jones and again this weekend with Matt McCarthy. It's not shocking some listeners use what they hear as a reference of fact.
I think we've talked about it pretty often when people have asserted the "it's only money" argument. I'm kind of tired of googling the exact rules at this point.

"The owner doesn't care if your team wins" argument is pretty standard for media trolls as well. Sometimes it's somewhat true, but it clearly isn't here. The team has won championships on a regular basis under this ownership group, have consistently been in the top 3-4 in yearly team salary (and often in the #1 spot), and the owners have been proactive about changing leadership groups that don't seem to be working. They're the owners every team's fans should want.
This is the info I was thinking teaparty would have known as a fan of the team
 

begranter

Couldn't get into a real school
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 9, 2007
2,344
No upgrades? Sorry, no. Garrett Richards and the return of E-Rod are significant upgrades over last year's parade of "who?" that followed Eovaldi and Perez. Pivetta and Houck are promising as well. And Sale is going to be a built in mid-season acquisition.

It's not the 90s Braves, but it isn't exactly a black hole of suck either.
Garrett Richards is who we have to get excited about? He with a 106 career ERA+ entering his age 33 season, and a total of less than 200 innings thrown over the last 5 season? Yikes.
I like ERod as much as anyone, but to expect he'll be 2019 ERod without having pitched in a year is very optimistic. This isn't a guy that, beyond scary COVID related symptoms, has a long track record of staying healthy.
TJS guys have a long track record of not being themselves the first 6ish months as they come back into games from rehab. I wouldn't expect too much from Sale this year when (if) he returns.
On a competing team Eovaldi is a good 4, Perez is a good 5, and Pivetta is a swing-man at best. That's all fine, but without a healthy #1 and without a #2 that doesn't have significant uncertainties, I don't feel great about what those guys' matchups will inevitably be.
What Houck did in his 3 starts last year is very exciting but based on his underwhelming spring training he's not making this team out of camp (admittedly some of this may be options based, but the fact he couldn't carve out a rotation spot is disappointing). His refined control that progressed so well last year seems to have evaporated which is most concerning, and he still needs to develop a 3rd pitch for long-term success as a MLB starter, IMO.

It feels very much so like year 2 of a 3+ year rebuild without a ton of top flight talent in the pipeline to get excited about. Thankfully we had the shortened 2020 season to not suffer the worst of it but I see very little to get excited about this year. Maybe they'll strike gold with a few acquisitions but I'll mostly be watching for Bogaerts and Devers and to see what kind of return they can get as sellers at the deadline. I'm not totally upset that without NESN on YTTV, I'll probably be watching more White Sox and Padres games via MLB.tv than Red Sox games this year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
Garrett Richards is who we have to get excited about? He with a 106 career ERA+ entering his age 33 season, and a total of less than 200 innings thrown over the last 5 season? Yikes.
I like ERod as much as anyone, but to expect he'll be 2019 ERod without having pitched in a year is very optimistic. This isn't a guy that, beyond scary COVID related symptoms, has a long track record of staying healthy.
TJS guys have a long track record of not being themselves the first 6ish months as they come back into games from rehab. I wouldn't expect too much from Sale this year when (if) he returns.
On a competing team Eovaldi is a good 4, Perez is a good 5, and Pivetta is a swing-man at best. That's all fine, but without a healthy #1 and without a #2 that doesn't have significant uncertainties, I don't feel great about what those guys' matchups will inevitably be.
What Houck did in his 3 starts last year is very exciting but based on his underwhelming spring training he's not making this team out of camp (admittedly some of this may be options based, but the fact he couldn't carve out a rotation spot is disappointing). His refined control that progressed so well last year seems to have evaporated which is most concerning, and he still needs to develop a 3rd pitch for long-term success as a MLB starter, IMO.

It feels very much so like year 2 of a 3+ year rebuild without a ton of top flight talent in the pipeline to get excited about. Thankfully we had the shortened 2020 season to not suffer the worst of it but I see very little to get excited about this year. Maybe they'll strike gold with a few acquisitions but I'll mostly be watching for Bogaerts and Devers and to see what kind of return they can get as sellers at the deadline. I'm not totally upset that without NESN on YTTV, I'll probably be watching more White Sox and Padres games via MLB.tv than Red Sox games this year.
I wasn't arguing "excited". I was responding to the supposition that the Red Sox did nothing to address starting pitching. They did. We're a far cry from the likes of Chris Mazza, Ryan Weber, and Zach Godley making 1/3 of the team's starts.
 

OurF'ingCity

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 22, 2016
8,469
New York City
ERod alone is likely to be 10 or so wins better than whatever dreck they trotted out last year to replace him. That's roughly a 90-win team without considering that Pivetta and Richards, even if they are league average or slightly below, will be a massive improvement over said dreck.
There's no question that E-Rod is a massive improvement over last year but 10 wins is pretty dramatic. Last year's crop of pitchers was almost quintessentially replacement level, so to bear out your prediction E-Rod would need ~10 WAR, which I don't think any pitcher has ever done in the Fangraphs era. And those who have gotten close have had historically great, Cy Young-level seasons.

A good season for E-Rod would probably be about 3 WAR, and a really good season would probably be about 4 WAR (would be the best season of his career). That said, I don't think it's crazy to think that the pitching improvements overall could add up to about 10 WAR more than last year if everything breaks right, so I don't disagree with the overall premise.

Of course, the glass-half-empty view is that, given the above, even if you assume everything breaks right for them pitching-wise and the offense continues to be very good, on paper they'd be looking at something like 88-92 wins depending on luck, which is almost certainly not good enough to make the playoffs under the pre-Covid 10-team format (if they keep the 2020 16-team format that of course is very different).
 

landsdowneteaparty

New Member
Aug 30, 2010
7
Brooklyn, NY
This is the info I was thinking teaparty would have known as a fan of the team
Fair enough. I was merely responding to Trotsky's lament over the absence of enthusiasm by the stalwarts. Although anything can happen in a given season this team will not contend. For myriad reasons. As for finances let's see if there's anything more to ownership's sudden parsimony. There's a lot of dry powder looking for attractive investments.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
There's no question that E-Rod is a massive improvement over last year but 10 wins is pretty dramatic. Last year's crop of pitchers was almost quintessentially replacement level, so to bear out your prediction E-Rod would need ~10 WAR, which I don't think any pitcher has ever done in the Fangraphs era. And those who have gotten close have had historically great, Cy Young-level seasons.

A good season for E-Rod would probably be about 3 WAR, and a really good season would probably be about 4 WAR (would be the best season of his career). That said, I don't think it's crazy to think that the pitching improvements overall could add up to about 10 WAR more than last year if everything breaks right, so I don't disagree with the overall premise.

Of course, the glass-half-empty view is that, given the above, even if you assume everything breaks right for them pitching-wise and the offense continues to be very good, on paper they'd be looking at something like 88-92 wins depending on luck, which is almost certainly not good enough to make the playoffs under the pre-Covid 10-team format (if they keep the 2020 16-team format that of course is very different).
They are not using the 16 team format this year.

I'm not sure why 88-92 wins wouldn't be good enough in the 10 team format. In the eight seasons of the format (2012-2019), the average win total of the #2 AL wildcard has been 90.75. From a high of 97 wins in 2018 to a low of 85 in 2017, it's a fairly dynamic range. It's no guarantee, of course, but a 90 win team should be contending into September at the very least.

Whether this team gets the breaks necessary to be in that position is the real question.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Experiencing Furry Panic
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Fair enough. I was merely responding to Trotsky's lament over the absence of enthusiasm by the stalwarts. Although anything can happen in a given season this team will not contend. For myriad reasons. As for finances let's see if there's anything more to ownership's sudden parsimony. There's a lot of dry powder looking for attractive investments.
This "parsimony" (good word) has the Sox as the sixth highest payroll. Down a bit from recent seasons, but you compared them to Tampa, a team that has had success with a very low payroll. Hyperbole like that is going to quickly get you rebutted
 

DeadlySplitter

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 20, 2015
33,253
The excitement about Richards is his spin rate on his pitches are super top tier. That usually precludes success in the Statcast era. It's a good gamble for a team still rebuilding its pitching depth.

Remember that 60+ million on the CBT line is sunk cost for two more years - Sale (hopefully rebounds but probably not 100% this year) ~29M, Eovaldi 17M (he is a #4 at the very best unfortunately, this was Dave's biggest mistake IMO and not Sale), Price 16M for two more years too. They have the most "dead money" in the sport. It's going to be a lot of upside plays until Price and Eovaldi clear.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
Just an observation: I miss Betts too, but I'm not at all sure our team's forward-looking prospects look much better today even if we had played things perfectly with him. What if we had signed him before 2018 to an extension he'd have bitten on — say 14/$400, the rough equivalent of his Dodger deal. (Remember, we don't know the details, but inferences from things media have said make clear that he turned down $90m, $200m, and "north of $300m" extension proposals at various points...) I expect he'll be easily worth his Dodger deal — barring catastrophic injury (*knocks wood*), this dude is gonna age like a fine wine aged in barrels made of Ricky Henderson's bats.

Stipulated: Betts is a considerably better player than Verdugo. Even so, we would have been at most two wins better in 2020, and wasted a year of Betts' prime on a team without a pitching staff. (I'm assuming Price opts out in Boston, too; and, without Sale, we sign... IDK, another Perez type, but not enough to replace Price, Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez.) We'd be looking at either severe payroll cuts or dire draft penalties for the remainder of Price's contract — even assuming we didn't extend Sale in this scenario — and the farm/young talent would be much thinner without Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.

Let's say we were two wins better in 2020. Our draft position would be moved back several slots — eyeballing it, to about ninth — and *then* ten more slots because we'd have been so far over the cap. So we'd have still had a miserable season, we would have a considerably worse farm system, and our first 2021 pick (and corresponding draft bonus allotment) would come at... 19. Yikes.

Basically, we'd be in a situation similar to the Angels of the last half-decade. We'd have a superstar player, a few other good regulars, a millstone of an aging star on a huge contract (Pujols, Price), a shallow farm system (albeit with a handful of standout players like Jo Adell or Triston Casas), and a mediocre pitching staff. We would stay mired for years in the high-70s, low-80s win territory despite an all-world superstar whose prime years career we were slowly squandering.

The Angels were last good in 2014, when Mike Trout was 22. They *might be* good again this season, but the projection systems have them finishing in fourth, again. Trout is 29.

Now Imagine if the Angels had dealt Trout, to, say:
  • The Dodgers, after the 2016 season, for Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo, and one of the non-Urias pitchers.
  • The Cubs, after the 2015 season, for Torres, Jimenez, Happ, and Cease.
  • The Red Sox, after the 2015 season, for Moncada, Betts, Kopech, and Devers.
  • The Padres or Yankees, for... you get the idea.
The Angels would have been murdered in the press for any of those trades, which probably would have looked light as the return for the best player in the game on a reasonable extension. But you can imagine some scenarios where — assuming they picked the right prospects — the Angels have already put themselves much more firmly in contention, even playing in a division with very good Astros and A's teams. On Earth Two, people are excited about the Angels young and athletic two-way Bellinger/Verdugo/Adell outfield.
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,484
Rogers Park
The excitement about Richards is his spin rate on his pitches are super top tier. That usually precludes success in the Statcast era. It's a good gamble for a team still rebuilding its pitching depth.

Remember that 60+ million on the CBT line is sunk cost for two more years - Sale (hopefully rebounds but probably not 100% this year) ~29M, Eovaldi 17M (he is a #4 at the very best unfortunately, this was Dave's biggest mistake IMO and not Sale), Price 16M for two more years too. They have the most "dead money" in the sport. It's going to be a lot of upside plays until Price and Eovaldi clear.
I'm guessing autocorrect switched preludes into precludes LOL.
 

Sin Duda

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
818
(B)Austin Texas
John Henry bought the team in 2003. For the past 19 years, the Red Sox payrolls have ranked 6, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 3, 3, 3, 1, 1, 3, 6 for a mean of 2.95, a median of 3 and high/low of 1 / 6. In 2020 we hired a GM with the approach of sustainability of success. While I didn't mind Dombrowski's approach since it garnered a World Series flag, I expected him to prioritize signing Mookie and was bitterly disappointed that Mookie was not signed. The large contracts he gave to Sale and Eovaldi after 2018 gave me the impression that Mookie was not interested in signing that offseason and would rather wait until he hit free agency (perhaps considering only a "blow me away" contract better than Bryce Harper's $330M total). Just because we love him unreservedly doesn't mean Mookie has to love Boston back to the point of leaving money on the table.

I believe Chaim made a shrewd deal to unload half of Price's contract (which looked smart then and very smart in hindsight) in the Mookie deal and get back what he did (potentially 4 MLers with one or two that have All-Star potential) for what I believe was one year of Mookie's services. Chaim also reset the luxury tax, which helps the team avoid draft and international free agency pool money penalties. I believe the Red Sox to be one the the smarter teams and I am thankful they compete regularly and, under the Henry regime, have won more championships than any other team.

I don't put the Red Sox's failure to sign Mookie on anyone but the "business of baseball" and I was glad he helped the Dodgers win a World Series after he helped the Red Sox win one in 2018. Most/all of this is a rehash of what most/all of you already know with my feelings added. 2021 promises to be more interesting that 2020 and that's good enough for me for this year. Being in contention in September appears to be a real possibility, then, who knows?
 

allmanbro

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
362
Portland, Maine
Just an observation: I miss Betts too, but I'm not at all sure our team's forward-looking prospects look much better today even if we had played things perfectly with him. What if we had signed him before 2018 to an extension he'd have bitten on — say 14/$400, the rough equivalent of his Dodger deal. (Remember, we don't know the details, but inferences from things media have said make clear that he turned down $90m, $200m, and "north of $300m" extension proposals at various points...) I expect he'll be easily worth his Dodger deal — barring catastrophic injury (*knocks wood*), this dude is gonna age like a fine wine aged in barrels made of Ricky Henderson's bats.

Stipulated: Betts is a considerably better player than Verdugo. Even so, we would have been at most two wins better in 2020, and wasted a year of Betts' prime on a team without a pitching staff. (I'm assuming Price opts out in Boston, too; and, without Sale, we sign... IDK, another Perez type, but not enough to replace Price, Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez.) We'd be looking at either severe payroll cuts or dire draft penalties for the remainder of Price's contract — even assuming we didn't extend Sale in this scenario — and the farm/young talent would be much thinner without Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.

Let's say we were two wins better in 2020. Our draft position would be moved back several slots — eyeballing it, to about ninth — and *then* ten more slots because we'd have been so far over the cap. So we'd have still had a miserable season, we would have a considerably worse farm system, and our first 2021 pick (and corresponding draft bonus allotment) would come at... 19. Yikes.

Basically, we'd be in a situation similar to the Angels of the last half-decade. We'd have a superstar player, a few other good regulars, a millstone of an aging star on a huge contract (Pujols, Price), a shallow farm system (albeit with a handful of standout players like Jo Adell or Triston Casas), and a mediocre pitching staff. We would stay mired for years in the high-70s, low-80s win territory despite an all-world superstar whose prime years career we were slowly squandering.

The Angels were last good in 2014, when Mike Trout was 22. They *might be* good again this season, but the projection systems have them finishing in fourth, again. Trout is 29.

Now Imagine if the Angels had dealt Trout, to, say:
  • The Dodgers, after the 2016 season, for Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo, and one of the non-Urias pitchers.
  • The Cubs, after the 2015 season, for Torres, Jimenez, Happ, and Cease.
  • The Red Sox, after the 2015 season, for Moncada, Betts, Kopech, and Devers.
  • The Padres or Yankees, for... you get the idea.
The Angels would have been murdered in the press for any of those trades, which probably would have looked light as the return for the best player in the game on a reasonable extension. But you can imagine some scenarios where — assuming they picked the right prospects — the Angels have already put themselves much more firmly in contention, even playing in a division with very good Astros and A's teams. On Earth Two, people are excited about the Angels young and athletic two-way Bellinger/Verdugo/Adell outfield.
This is a great post and explanation. It really bothered me recently when the usually so great Joe Posnanski also trotted out the same line in his spring training summary of the Sox (paywalled). The bottom line is that the Sox had a ton of holes opening up, and almost nothing to look forward to in the farm system. There was no way they could have kept filling out the roster exclusively through free agency and maintained competitive. It sucks that it was Mookie, but some kind of deal like that was necessary to avoid a long slow decline, and even longer rebuild.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see the team poke back a bit above the luxury tax line in 2022, given the huge amount they have coming off the books after that year, they can easily drop right below again (assuming this part of the CBA doesn't change much).
 

Vermonter At Large

SoxFan
Moderator
SoSH Member
I'm looking forward to this season with a greater interest than I had prior to the 2020 season (even before the pandemic). I'm glad Cora is back. I believe the 2021 squad is going to at minimum compete for a wild-card berth and be fun to watch. I like what I see of Chaim's approach to team-building and I believe his front office is on the right track to building a sustainably winning team and breaking the boom-or-bust cycle that the Red Sox have been stuck in over the past decade.
There hasn't been much to NOT like so far this spring. Nobody anywhere really has high expectations for this team, so they are set up to surprise us. Somehow we get the feeling that Cora's return is worth several games all on it's own. The pitchers are still getting stretched out, but so far they have been solid, if unspectacular. A few of the younger guys (Dalbec, Duran, Casas, Downs and maybe Jimenez) have had good enough springs for us to believe that they could possibly be useful at some point this season and/or next. A few players probably haven't shown enough yet, particularly Verdugo and J.D., and the jury is out on a couple of others. Still, this appears to be a middling team at the outset, with potential for more. Let the games begin!
 

Stanley Steamer

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 11, 2012
1,436
Rossland, BC
I agree with Sandy that it seems a bit odd that, for what ostensibly is a baseball site, there's been less talk of baseball than most anything else. It is a by-product of the recent past-- a global pandemic, a crisis in American democracy, the worst team in recent Red Sox history, and somewhat arbitrary rules and regulations in the sport that seem to preclude a financially powerful organization like ours from spending money to retain homegrown fan favorites.
That said, I echo the majority opinions that a new season is almost upon us, and I'm kind of excited to see what the Sox have in store for us. We will be better than last year. We may yet contend for the playoffs. And SoSH's collective interest in baseball will steadily grow.
 

CanvasAlley

New Member
May 22, 2016
75
Los Angeles, CA
Just an observation: I miss Betts too, but I'm not at all sure our team's forward-looking prospects look much better today even if we had played things perfectly with him. What if we had signed him before 2018 to an extension he'd have bitten on — say 14/$400, the rough equivalent of his Dodger deal. (Remember, we don't know the details, but inferences from things media have said make clear that he turned down $90m, $200m, and "north of $300m" extension proposals at various points...) I expect he'll be easily worth his Dodger deal — barring catastrophic injury (*knocks wood*), this dude is gonna age like a fine wine aged in barrels made of Ricky Henderson's bats.

Stipulated: Betts is a considerably better player than Verdugo. Even so, we would have been at most two wins better in 2020, and wasted a year of Betts' prime on a team without a pitching staff. (I'm assuming Price opts out in Boston, too; and, without Sale, we sign... IDK, another Perez type, but not enough to replace Price, Sale, Porcello, and Rodriguez.) We'd be looking at either severe payroll cuts or dire draft penalties for the remainder of Price's contract — even assuming we didn't extend Sale in this scenario — and the farm/young talent would be much thinner without Verdugo, Downs, and Wong.

Let's say we were two wins better in 2020. Our draft position would be moved back several slots — eyeballing it, to about ninth — and *then* ten more slots because we'd have been so far over the cap. So we'd have still had a miserable season, we would have a considerably worse farm system, and our first 2021 pick (and corresponding draft bonus allotment) would come at... 19. Yikes.

Basically, we'd be in a situation similar to the Angels of the last half-decade. We'd have a superstar player, a few other good regulars, a millstone of an aging star on a huge contract (Pujols, Price), a shallow farm system (albeit with a handful of standout players like Jo Adell or Triston Casas), and a mediocre pitching staff. We would stay mired for years in the high-70s, low-80s win territory despite an all-world superstar whose prime years career we were slowly squandering.

The Angels were last good in 2014, when Mike Trout was 22. They *might be* good again this season, but the projection systems have them finishing in fourth, again. Trout is 29.

Now Imagine if the Angels had dealt Trout, to, say:
  • The Dodgers, after the 2016 season, for Seager, Bellinger, Verdugo, and one of the non-Urias pitchers.
  • The Cubs, after the 2015 season, for Torres, Jimenez, Happ, and Cease.
  • The Red Sox, after the 2015 season, for Moncada, Betts, Kopech, and Devers.
  • The Padres or Yankees, for... you get the idea.
The Angels would have been murdered in the press for any of those trades, which probably would have looked light as the return for the best player in the game on a reasonable extension. But you can imagine some scenarios where — assuming they picked the right prospects — the Angels have already put themselves much more firmly in contention, even playing in a division with very good Astros and A's teams. On Earth Two, people are excited about the Angels young and athletic two-way Bellinger/Verdugo/Adell outfield.
This is one of the best analyses I have read in some time. It is easy for us to allow our emotions (especially concerning Mookie) to overrule the logic required of building a competitive team. Well done!
 

CanvasAlley

New Member
May 22, 2016
75
Los Angeles, CA
I agree with Sandy that it seems a bit odd that, for what ostensibly is a baseball site, there's been less talk of baseball than most anything else. It is a by-product of the recent past-- a global pandemic, a crisis in American democracy, the worst team in recent Red Sox history, and somewhat arbitrary rules and regulations in the sport that seem to preclude a financially powerful organization like ours from spending money to retain homegrown fan favorites.
That said, I echo the majority opinions that a new season is almost upon us, and I'm kind of excited to see what the Sox have in store for us. We will be better than last year. We may yet contend for the playoffs. And SoSH's collective interest in baseball will steadily grow.
I admit to being one who tuned out a bit last year. I had an extensive bout of COVID-19 and, when I did tune in, did not have much of an emotional connection to the newer players.