Spring Training 2023 Thread

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I'll run through some stuff for '12 to '22...

'12
Blue Jays .774 (.451 - no)
Tigers .714 (.543 - yes)

'13
Royals .781 (.531 - no)

'14
None
(Rays had best record, .696, .475 regular season)

'15
None
(A's has best record, .667, .420 regular season)

'16
Nationals .826 (.526 - yes)
Diamondbacks .750 (.426 - no)
Angels .704 (.457 - no)

'17
Yankees .727 (.562 - yes)
Cards .714 (.512 - no)

'18
Red Sox .710 (.667 - yes)
Astros .700 (.636 - yes)

'19
None
(A's had best record, .636, .599 regular season)

'20
Phillies .714 (.467 - no)

'21
Marlins .737 (.414 - no)

'22
None
(Angels had best record, .647, .451 regular season)

So in the past 11 years, 5 of the 12 .700+ Spring Training teams made the playoffs* (& 1 of 4 teams with the best record who didn't play .700+).

*I didn't check the actual playoffs, I just looked to see if the team either won their division or would have been a top 3 WC team.
 

JM3

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This year the other team who is over .700 so far is the Royals (.846), whose o/u this season is 69.5 wins (8 lower than the Red Sox).
 

Yo La Tengo

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Nov 21, 2005
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So in the past 11 years, 5 of the 12 .700+ Spring Training teams made the playoffs* (& 1 of 4 teams with the best record who didn't play .700+).
If I'm reading Yo La Tengo's chart correctly, between 1984 and 2011, wasn't it 54% (7 out of 13)?
So, from 1984 to 2022, 25 teams had Spring Training records of .700 or better and (only) 12 of those teams made the playoffs.

But how about teams with a 1.000 winning percentage in spring training, right?
 

beautokyo

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Jun 5, 2008
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Yoshida was 3-3 with 5 RBI in Japan's game today.
He also made a couple of good plays in LF. Also one play that made me grimace. I also remembered why you won't see many Japanese players diving for balls. The croud was oooing and awwing tonight when Lars Nootbaar made 2 sliding catches for Japan.
 

effectivelywild

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Jul 14, 2005
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I'll run through some stuff for '12 to '22...

'12
Blue Jays .774 (.451 - no)
Tigers .714 (.543 - yes)

'13
Royals .781 (.531 - no)

'14
None
(Rays had best record, .696, .475 regular season)

'15
None
(A's has best record, .667, .420 regular season)

'16
Nationals .826 (.526 - yes)
Diamondbacks .750 (.426 - no)
Angels .704 (.457 - no)

'17
Yankees .727 (.562 - yes)
Cards .714 (.512 - no)

'18
Red Sox .710 (.667 - yes)
Astros .700 (.636 - yes)

'19
None
(A's had best record, .636, .599 regular season)

'20
Phillies .714 (.467 - no)

'21
Marlins .737 (.414 - no)

'22
None
(Angels had best record, .647, .451 regular season)

So in the past 11 years, 5 of the 12 .700+ Spring Training teams made the playoffs* (& 1 of 4 teams with the best record who didn't play .700+).

*I didn't check the actual playoffs, I just looked to see if the team either won their division or would have been a top 3 WC team.
I also started to wonder if, rather than use a "playoffs or not" end point it might be worth looking into if the teams that had great preseasons beat their projected win total for the season, as maybe "overperformance relative to expectations" might correlate better with preseason wins vs. playoffs. I started using data from Sports Odds History

2012 Blue Jays: Under
2012 Tigers: Under
2013 Royals: Over
2014 Rays: Under
2015 A's: Under
2016 Nationals: Over
2016 Diamondbacks: Under
2016 Angels: Under
2017 Yankees: Over
2017 Cardinals: Under
2018 Red Sox: Over
2018 Astros: Over
2019 A's: Over

6/13 hit their over. Tremendous waste of time by me. <shrugs>
 

chrisfont9

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I also started to wonder if, rather than use a "playoffs or not" end point it might be worth looking into if the teams that had great preseasons beat their projected win total for the season, as maybe "overperformance relative to expectations" might correlate better with preseason wins vs. playoffs. I started using data from Sports Odds History

2012 Blue Jays: Under
2012 Tigers: Under
2013 Royals: Over
2014 Rays: Under
2015 A's: Under
2016 Nationals: Over
2016 Diamondbacks: Under
2016 Angels: Under
2017 Yankees: Over
2017 Cardinals: Under
2018 Red Sox: Over
2018 Astros: Over
2019 A's: Over

6/13 hit their over. Tremendous waste of time by me. <shrugs>
I think the real question isn't so much whether teams with good spring records are generally showing that they will succeed in the regular season no matter what. It's whether this particular Sox team is locked in to winning spring games as a very specific team approach to changing/rebuilding/strengthening the culture of the team and will that bleed over into the regular season? Not sure how many of these previous teams took that approach, though seeing Cora's 2018 Sox in there is sorta comforting -- and that plus the presence of Chris Sale and Rafael Devers is about where the comparisons end.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
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I also started to wonder if, rather than use a "playoffs or not" end point it might be worth looking into if the teams that had great preseasons beat their projected win total for the season, as maybe "overperformance relative to expectations" might correlate better with preseason wins vs. playoffs. I started using data from Sports Odds History

2012 Blue Jays: Under
2012 Tigers: Under
2013 Royals: Over
2014 Rays: Under
2015 A's: Under
2016 Nationals: Over
2016 Diamondbacks: Under
2016 Angels: Under
2017 Yankees: Over
2017 Cardinals: Under
2018 Red Sox: Over
2018 Astros: Over
2019 A's: Over

6/13 hit their over. Tremendous waste of time by me. <shrugs>
Eh, no correlation is still a result.

For a bit more completeness:

2020 Phillies: Under
https://dknation.draftkings.com/2020/6/29/21306867/mlb-win-totals-odds-2020-lines-over-under-diamondbacks-dodgers-yankees-astros

2021 Marlins: Under
https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/mlb/2021-mlb-win-totals/#NL Updated

So 6/15 overs.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I think the real question isn't so much whether teams with good spring records are generally showing that they will succeed in the regular season no matter what. It's whether this particular Sox team is locked in to winning spring games as a very specific team approach to changing/rebuilding/strengthening the culture of the team and will that bleed over into the regular season? Not sure how many of these previous teams took that approach, though seeing Cora's 2018 Sox in there is sorta comforting -- and that plus the presence of Chris Sale and Rafael Devers is about where the comparisons end.
I seem to remember it being a thing with Cora to go hard after wins in spring training with that 2018 team in an effort to set a tone. Maybe that was just a new manager trying to put a stamp on things early, because obviously that was much less of an emphasis in 2019 (load managing and easing into the season became the headline). There hasn't really been a normal spring training since then, so maybe Cora is trying to go back to what "worked" back then.

Ultimately, I don't think it really dictates anything when it comes to the regular season. Though it can't really hurt to try to come out of the gates strong.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I seem to remember it being a thing with Cora to go hard after wins in spring training with that 2018 team in an effort to set a tone. Maybe that was just a new manager trying to put a stamp on things early, because obviously that was much less of an emphasis in 2019 (load managing and easing into the season became the headline). There hasn't really been a normal spring training since then, so maybe Cora is trying to go back to what "worked" back then.

Ultimately, I don't think it really dictates anything when it comes to the regular season. Though it can't really hurt to try to come out of the gates strong.
I'm sensing a positive attitude about this team on SoSH here which obviously reflects the Spring Training success so far. I don't think it'd be a stretch to imagine that the players themselves are feeling it. I doubt anyone is dismissing their record as "just spring training". A good fucking attitude can take you a long way through some tougher times, so if anything, it has to be helping to build some positive energy and fortitude. Of course running directly into a losing streak as a regular season starts off can squash that energy pretty fast. I'm optimistic it'll carry over and provide some momentum.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Well, we all want everyone to be playing well, and to continue to play well, but 2/3 of these guys aren’t going to be playing when the real games start, so we ALL should be dismissing their spring training record.
 

JM3

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Dec 14, 2019
11,420
Well, we all want everyone to be playing well, and to continue to play well, but 2/3 of these guys aren’t going to be playing when the real games start, so we ALL should be dismissing their spring training record.
Yeah. In the win against the Yankees yesterday I believe there were literally 3 players available with a decent chance of making the Opening Day Roster (Reese/Kelly/Pivetta). It's fun, & hopefully shows a deepening of the depth, but not particularly predictive.
 

Rovin Romine

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I don’t, even as he’s looked bad. We don’t really have another RHH outfielder, and he was very good last year.
And not so great the year before.

RHH on the 40 man right now are: Duvall, Turner, Hernandez, Arroyo, Wong, Chang, Dalbec, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Story (60 day IL), and Mondesi (switch hitter.)

LHH: Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Casas, McGuire, Duran, Valdez, Abreu, Hamilton.

Figure the bolded should get the majority of the ABs at their primary position.

As far as the handedness issue goes, with Hernandez being able to move from SS to CF, I suspect if we need a RH PH for a LH OF at some point, Cora can just use an IF (Chang/Dalbec/Mondesi?), shift Hernandez to CF for the remainder of the game, and slide the IF about.
 

nvalvo

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And not so great the year before.

RHH on the 40 man right now are: Duvall, Turner, Hernandez, Arroyo, Wong, Chang, Dalbec, Refsnyder, Rafaela, Story (60 day IL), and Mondesi (switch hitter.)

LHH: Devers, Yoshida, Verdugo, Casas, McGuire, Duran, Valdez, Abreu, Hamilton.

Figure the bolded should get the majority of the ABs at their primary position.

As far as the handedness issue goes, with Hernandez being able to move from SS to CF, I suspect if we need a RH PH for a LH OF at some point, Cora can just use an IF (Chang/Dalbec/Mondesi?), shift Hernandez to CF for the remainder of the game, and slide the IF about.
This is a good point. Hernández' flexibility means that you could go with a bench of Tapia (RH, all three OF spots), Mondesí (SW, SS, 3B, 2B), Alfaro (RH C/DH/LF), and the Taiwanese Minister of Defense (RH, all four infield spots) if you wanted. In fact, that would be a pretty great bench.

It probably means Dalbec gets traded to clear a 40-man spot, but that has seemed pretty likely to me since they brought in Palka to be the AAA 1B.
 

Rovin Romine

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This is a good point. Hernández' flexibility means that you could go with a bench of Tapia (RH, all three OF spots), Mondesí (SW, SS, 3B, 2B), Alfaro (RH C/DH/LF), and the Taiwanese Minister of Defense (RH, all four infield spots) if you wanted. In fact, that would be a pretty great bench.

It probably means Dalbec gets traded to clear a 40-man spot, but that has seemed pretty likely to me since they brought in Palka to be the AAA 1B.
If you have time, pitch in: https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2023-infield-and-a-bit-of-of.38631/
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Turner apparently got his stitches out this weekend and may be resuming baseball activities today. What a relief.