The current state of play for Spurs' end of season run is down to whether they finish 6th, 7th, or 8th. Spurs aren't catching Liverpool in 5th, who are 5 points ahead, and Brentford aren't catching Spurs as they are 7 points behind.
Spurs currently sit 6th, Brighton 7th, and Villa 8th. Spurs are 2 points ahead of Brighton, and 3 ahead of Villa, but Brighton have 2 games in hand. Brighton have the GD tiebreaker over Spurs, and Spurs have it over Villa. The other big factor in play is that if MANC win UCL, I believe all of the European qualifying positions drop down an additional spot. So UCL would go to spots 2-5, UEL 6-7, and UCOL 8.
All 3 teams have pretty brutal stretches, and Brighton play Villa to end the season. Remaining schedules:
Spurs:
@Villa (8)
Brentford (9)
@Leeds (19)
Brighton:
@Arsenal (2)
@ Newcastle (3)
Southampton (20)
MANC (1)
@Villa (8)
Villa:
Spurs (6)
@Liverpool (5)
Brighton (7)
If Brighton finish ahead of Spurs, it will be earned, as they play the top 3 and hopefully finish with a Villa side fighting for a European spot (just not Tottenham's!).
Here's my take on Spurs' outcomes:
9 points - finish ahead of BHA
7 points - 50-50 whether BHA squeezes by them. GD very much in play.
6 points - BHA 70-30 to finish ahead.
5 points - BHA >80% to finish ahead.
4 points - BHA >90% to finish ahead.
3 points - I'll drink 3 pints.
2 points - "I want to thank Ryan for guiding the club and I have relieved him of his duties. Zososoxfan has been appointed as manager. We all wish Zoso the best of luck. COYS, Daniel."
1 point - Burn it down.
0 points - Burn it down and rename the club, Spursy AF FC.