Starting Pitching 2019
- Thread starter BaseballJones
- Start date
If the plan were for him just to start they wouldn't have brought him up to sit until the Weber slot comes up again. They would have called up a stopgap bullpen guy and then called up Shawaryn just before the start.
He'll be in the bullpen short term. If he isn't used before then it is possible they will put him in for Weber, they may also give Weber one more shot at starting and see what happens.
He'll be in the bullpen short term. If he isn't used before then it is possible they will put him in for Weber, they may also give Weber one more shot at starting and see what happens.
Chris Sale's last 11 starts: 2.24 era, 72.1 ip, 44 hits, 16bb/116k, .171/.232/.307 against. WHIP of 0.90.
Anomaly or is there something going on here....
Red Sox' primary starters' ERA and FIP numbers:
Sale: 3.82 era, 2.94 fip (+0.88)
Porcello: 4.52 era, 4.22 fip (+0.30)
Rodriguez: 4.87 era, 4.20 fip (+0.57)
Price: 3.36 era, 2.88 fip (+0.48)
Just for reference, same categories, NYY:
Tanaka: 3.21 era, 3.88 fip (-0.67)
Happ: 5.23 era, 5.48 fip (-0.25)
German: 3.86 era, 4.07 fip (-0.21)
Sabathia: 4.04 era, 5.27 fip (-1.23)
Paxton: 4.34 era, 3.84 fip (+0.50)
So for Boston, every single one of their primary starters has an era that's at least 0.30 worse than their fip (fielding-independent pitching). But for the Yankees, every single one of their starters except Paxton has an era that's at least 0.21 better than their fip. So why are the Yankees' starters outperforming their fip, but Sox' starters are underperforming their fip?
Red Sox' primary starters' ERA and FIP numbers:
Sale: 3.82 era, 2.94 fip (+0.88)
Porcello: 4.52 era, 4.22 fip (+0.30)
Rodriguez: 4.87 era, 4.20 fip (+0.57)
Price: 3.36 era, 2.88 fip (+0.48)
Just for reference, same categories, NYY:
Tanaka: 3.21 era, 3.88 fip (-0.67)
Happ: 5.23 era, 5.48 fip (-0.25)
German: 3.86 era, 4.07 fip (-0.21)
Sabathia: 4.04 era, 5.27 fip (-1.23)
Paxton: 4.34 era, 3.84 fip (+0.50)
So for Boston, every single one of their primary starters has an era that's at least 0.30 worse than their fip (fielding-independent pitching). But for the Yankees, every single one of their starters except Paxton has an era that's at least 0.21 better than their fip. So why are the Yankees' starters outperforming their fip, but Sox' starters are underperforming their fip?
It might be partly a park effect (Fenway gooses BABIP, which impacts ERA but not FIP), but perhaps more an artifact of LOB%. This year the Yanks are outperforming the Sox by four percentage points in this category (the top and bottom teams are separated by 10 points, so this is not trivial). Last year both the LOB% and the ERA-FIP differential were reversed (Sox a little better on both counts).
Sale may get it together, but he's been bad lately. Last three starts: 16.2 ip, 7.02 era, 1.62 whip, .964 ops against
Just....terrible (for Sale, I mean....there are plenty of starters who would LOVE that line). And that's against two of the worst teams in baseball: 2 vs Tor and 1 vs ChW.
On the season, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, and the team is just 6-12 in his starts (he's got a 3-8 record himself).
That's just unfathomable. Think about that. We are just a few days away from the all-star break, more than half the season is done, and Chris F*#$#! Sale has *THREE* wins.
We can talk all we want about the bullpen, but the four main guys in the rotation have these pitching lines so far this season:
Sale: 3-8, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, 5.9 innings per start (using regular decimals, not thirds of an inning)
Price: 6-2, 3.33 era, 1.14 whip, 5.2 innings per start
Rodriguez: 8-4, 4.79 era, 1.36 whip, 5.7 innings per start
Porcello: 5-7, 5.07 era, 1.40 whip, 5.5 innings per start
I'm sorry. That's just not going to get it done. They don't have a single starter averaging even six innings per start (Sale, obviously, is close). That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen just doesn't have enough quality arms to sustain that night after night. They essentially get no break. Even when a Sox' starter has a really good game, it's about 6 innings, MAYBE 7. So they have to get 3-4 innings *every* night. It's actually amazing to me that they are 7th in the AL in starters' ERA at 4.67 (9th in bullpen ERA at 4.43).
Just....terrible (for Sale, I mean....there are plenty of starters who would LOVE that line). And that's against two of the worst teams in baseball: 2 vs Tor and 1 vs ChW.
On the season, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, and the team is just 6-12 in his starts (he's got a 3-8 record himself).
That's just unfathomable. Think about that. We are just a few days away from the all-star break, more than half the season is done, and Chris F*#$#! Sale has *THREE* wins.
We can talk all we want about the bullpen, but the four main guys in the rotation have these pitching lines so far this season:
Sale: 3-8, 4.04 era, 1.08 whip, 5.9 innings per start (using regular decimals, not thirds of an inning)
Price: 6-2, 3.33 era, 1.14 whip, 5.2 innings per start
Rodriguez: 8-4, 4.79 era, 1.36 whip, 5.7 innings per start
Porcello: 5-7, 5.07 era, 1.40 whip, 5.5 innings per start
I'm sorry. That's just not going to get it done. They don't have a single starter averaging even six innings per start (Sale, obviously, is close). That puts a ton of stress on the bullpen, and the bullpen just doesn't have enough quality arms to sustain that night after night. They essentially get no break. Even when a Sox' starter has a really good game, it's about 6 innings, MAYBE 7. So they have to get 3-4 innings *every* night. It's actually amazing to me that they are 7th in the AL in starters' ERA at 4.67 (9th in bullpen ERA at 4.43).
Say wha? I can't imagine there's one starter out there, nevermind supposedly one of the best 5 pitchers in the league that would "love that line". Again, there's been almost zero people here calling Sale out this season like they have Price in the past. I realize by advanced metrics and his WHIP he's still doing well and his ERA and W/L should be much better... but he's not as good as the contract, and THAT is what Price got his ass chewed out for here. Additionally, Price got chewed out for not being a "big game" pitcher. Well at this point, in his Sox career, when has Sale been a big game pitcher? His Red Sox playoff record is garbage and he's been tired or injured late in the season and had his numbers start to suffer. Perpetually posters are bending themselves to defend him though. Again, I'm happy he's on the team, but so far this season he hasn't been what we signed him long term for and that should be a concern for anyone over future
Bottom line: they need to get him right to have a chance this season. If they can't, I'm very concerned about the next few seasons. If he's hurt, even a little, put him on the IL. Not like it would be a new thing for him. If he's not and it really is the Vázquez effect, then bite the bullet and staple Léon to him and hope you get some offensive production from the catcher spot in the game. It's silly that a Cy Young-level pitcher needs a binky to be effective but whatever it takes at this point.
The so-called "Vazquez effect" seems to be the hot topic today but last night was the first time Vaz has caught Sale in over a month (5/19) and only the third such pairing since Leon was recalled. Sale's been less than stellar no matter who's catching him of late. Blaming Vazquez seems short-sighted and unreasonable to me. Something is off with Sale. Period.
LOL that's so my bad. I meant to put that phrase (it was a post-post edit) at Sale's SEASON line, not the line the past three games.
Agree 100%....Vazquez is one of the bright spots for the 2019 Red Sox......Less Vazquez in not the answer
Sale has not looked right since midseason last year. His command of the strike zone is abysmal.
Um, no, there aren't. (Were you thinking of his season line, which you didn't include?)
One source of concern with Sale is that he's getting tagged for the long ball so much more often. Of course this is a league-wide thing, but it's hitting Sale worse than most: his HR/FB is more than 30% above his career average, while MLB as a whole is only up a little over 20% from the leaguewide average over the same time period. And I think this may be because.....
"Abysmal" is a little harsh, but I think you're right. I did a little poking around on Brooks this morning. Sale's fastball command to RHH is noticeably off. In 2017 (which I'm using as a proxy for "good Sale" because the data from 2018 are going to be mucked up by weird post-injury pseudo-Sale), he threw his fastball to RHH overwhelmingly up and in:
In 2019, that's still true, but notice the difference:
More of his up-and-in fastballs to RHH are ending up either down into the belt-high region (where the hitter can go to town on them) or in off the plate (where the hitter is not tempted to chase, thus extending his pitch count).
And it's showing in the results. His slugging percentage allowed to RHH on fastballs in the up/in half of the strike zone (i.e. top row + left column + middle-middle) was .393 in 2017; so far this year, it's .537. While part of this may be reduced velocity, I suspect the location issues are playing a role as well.
@Savin Hillbilly
See post #210. And yes I did include his season era and whip, which is what I meant to be referring to.
See post #210. And yes I did include his season era and whip, which is what I meant to be referring to.
The Red Sox used an entirely different strategy to get their starters prepared for the season, and it appears to be having season long effects. You could say that by now, they should have “caught up” but maybe it’s not that easy? How many of the pitchers who’ve held out all winter over the past couple seasons and signed late in spring training have ended up having bad years? A lot. That’s essentially the schedule the Sox imposed on their starters.
Another factor could be the reverse synergy with the minor league quality bullpen. Maybe Sox starters are trying to compensate for the lack of quality relief pitching by doing thing they think will help them pitch later in games. But, those adjustments aren’t working.
It is curious that the effect is almost team wide, however. That raises the likelihood that the malady is systemic rather than individual idiosyncrasies.
Another factor could be the reverse synergy with the minor league quality bullpen. Maybe Sox starters are trying to compensate for the lack of quality relief pitching by doing thing they think will help them pitch later in games. But, those adjustments aren’t working.
It is curious that the effect is almost team wide, however. That raises the likelihood that the malady is systemic rather than individual idiosyncrasies.
general bump with the trade deadline thread closed.
post All-Star Break, only ERod is pitching well. the bottom's fallen off of this group again like in April. the overall staff ERA since the ASB is an ugly 5.99, and it's mostly this group's fault because the innings per start are also horrific.
when your starting pitching is this bad for multiple long stretches, this is the result... no team can make the playoffs this way.
post All-Star Break, only ERod is pitching well. the bottom's fallen off of this group again like in April. the overall staff ERA since the ASB is an ugly 5.99, and it's mostly this group's fault because the innings per start are also horrific.
when your starting pitching is this bad for multiple long stretches, this is the result... no team can make the playoffs this way.
They will get there, but they don’t have anything to do against Houston nor Cleveland.
the Yankees still get innings out of their guys... and was there truly another horrible stretch besides two weeks ago for them?
this team was constructed so that the starters made up in part for the thin bullpen. it's been the opposite.
MFY Starters ERA in May 4.07 with 4.8 innings/start(Sox at 3.93, 5.2)
MFY Starters ERA in June 5.75 with 4.5 innings/start(Sox at 4.57, 5.2)
MFY Starters ERA in July 6.18 with 5 innings/start(Sox at 5.37, 5.5)
Fewer innings, worse performance for 3 consecutive months
alright then BMHH, another question. is our lack of clutch hitting and our weaker bullpen really explain the 11.5 game difference between the Yanks & Sox then?
No, I think our starting pitching is to blame more than anything.
I was simply responding to your making a declarative statement on the main board that was factually incorrect.
EDIT--and the Yankees have been playing out of their minds this year, not totally unlike the Sox last year. It's tough to compete with lightening in a bottle.
NY is actually just one game ahead of last year's pace currently (69-39 to 68-40) but BOS was an insane 77-34 last year at this point, 59-52 now.
That's fair. I guess I see it as lightening in a bottle because they've done it regardless of who they plug in, but that's moving the goalposts a bit.
Part of "lightning in the bottle" is that the Yanks are 7+ wins ahead of their BP 3rd order win projection. Last year on this date they were a couple of wins behind the projection.
(Of course the team was also decimated by injuries in the first half this year)
(Of course the team was also decimated by injuries in the first half this year)
i know we have all been lamenting Sale's poor season, but Price has gone from being pretty great to terrible in the last month as well. This team desperately needs to develop some quality starting pitching or the contracts of Price/Sale/Eovaldi are really gonna hurt us with roster construction
Here are the runs per game given up by the starters over the last 20.
5
3
5
3
0
2
6
1
7
3
8
4
7
6
4
6
3
3
3
3
Only 3 times in the last 20 games has the starting pitcher given up fewer than 3 runs. The team has been playing from behind all year and forcing the bullpen to be perfect just to win games.
5
3
5
3
0
2
6
1
7
3
8
4
7
6
4
6
3
3
3
3
Only 3 times in the last 20 games has the starting pitcher given up fewer than 3 runs. The team has been playing from behind all year and forcing the bullpen to be perfect just to win games.
And when the bullpen has been given leads, they've blown about half of them. Worst in the league.
This can also be a place to talk about how the Cashner acquisition has gone:
1-5 team record in his 6 starts, a hard to believe 27 ER in 30.1 IP for a stunning 8.01 ERA, and now relegated to the bullpen.
Still, even if Cashner had been merely bad instead of the human embodiment of HBO’s Chernobyl (say, a 5.00 ERA and a 3-3 record in his 6 starts) the team would still be 6.5 games out of a Wild Card and in much the same situation.
As indicated above, this is a team wide pitching disaster. Since the ASB our pitchers have a 5.51 ERA, good for 27th in MLB. Yikes.
1-5 team record in his 6 starts, a hard to believe 27 ER in 30.1 IP for a stunning 8.01 ERA, and now relegated to the bullpen.
Still, even if Cashner had been merely bad instead of the human embodiment of HBO’s Chernobyl (say, a 5.00 ERA and a 3-3 record in his 6 starts) the team would still be 6.5 games out of a Wild Card and in much the same situation.
As indicated above, this is a team wide pitching disaster. Since the ASB our pitchers have a 5.51 ERA, good for 27th in MLB. Yikes.
Has anyone seen any analysis on how the launch-angle focus has affected Red Sox pitching? Perhaps some of the Sox pitchers stuff is more susceptible to it than others, and/or the coaching staff hasn't found a way to counter it?
Our reliance on the top of the strike zone is an attempt to address that approach. Seemed to work pretty well last season!
The Sandy Leon affect, kidding. I think the numbers this year are similar regardless of who is catching.
the A's just released Marco Estrada. I don't see a reason not to pick him up, just for eating innings the rest of the way with a little bit of upside if we find our way back in it.
Yeah... attacking the high strike and a heavy reliance on curve balls (this is not a stat based claim, not sure where to find this) rather than sliders or change-ups.
Wouldn't splitters work really well against the "launch angle rev"? I'm honestly (shockingly!) not too well versed on what pitches are supposed to do- my understanding of the splitter is that it's a pitch that suddenly drops before it crosses the strike zone and often ends up in the dirt. Two seamed fastball/sinkers would seem to have some positive affect (obviously in combination with attacking the high K zone and other offspeed pitches to keep them guessing).
Anyhow.... I'm just imagining tons of hitters just swinging and missing at lots of balls dropping out of the strike zone that would likely be called balls.
You make a good point though. They need to find some innings eaters somewhere. I really don't see how it makes sense to pitch Price anymore this season either. Shut him down so he can get healthy. Porcello can pitch for his next contract, Edro can pitch for his nice arbitration salary, and Eovaldi can pitch because jeebus they have to get something for $17M. ( I know this last part is inconsistent with shutting Sale and Price down but I can't imagine they can find more than one pitcher who can eat innings before the end of the season and Sale and Price are much more valuable to the team.)
I feel like they should keep running Johnson out there for the rest of the season. Prior to this year, he’d been a serviceable 5th starter, and he’ll still be incredibly cheap next year. I know he’s been awful this season, and it could be that the new ball and he will never get along. However, he’s also been hurt most of the season, and bouncing between starting and relieving and Boston and Pawtucket. So the injuries and inconsistent roles could also explain underperformance.
You can’t develop pitchers if you won’t even use them when your playoff odds are vanishingly small.
You can’t develop pitchers if you won’t even use them when your playoff odds are vanishingly small.
Everyone knows how much worse Sale, Porcello, Price, and Eovaldi have been this year.
Last year, they went 48-21 with a 3.39 ERA in 579.1 IP.
This year, those 4 have combined to go 25-25 with a 4.94 ERA in 428.1 IP.
But an under-the-radar issue is how much worse Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright have also been.
Last year, that trio pitched an amazing 240 innings, going 14-8, with a 3.45 combined ERA, a pretty tremendous number for 3 depth guys who had to pitch so much.
This year, those 3 have combined for only 81 IP, going 2-7, with an atrocious 6.22 ERA.
Not only have the big name, big money starters cratered, but the depth guys who were so good last year have fallen off the cliff even worse.
Last year, they went 48-21 with a 3.39 ERA in 579.1 IP.
This year, those 4 have combined to go 25-25 with a 4.94 ERA in 428.1 IP.
But an under-the-radar issue is how much worse Johnson, Velazquez, and Wright have also been.
Last year, that trio pitched an amazing 240 innings, going 14-8, with a 3.45 combined ERA, a pretty tremendous number for 3 depth guys who had to pitch so much.
This year, those 3 have combined for only 81 IP, going 2-7, with an atrocious 6.22 ERA.
Not only have the big name, big money starters cratered, but the depth guys who were so good last year have fallen off the cliff even worse.
It seems relevant in this connection that Sale, Porcello, and Price are all in the top (or bottom) 10 in ERA-minus-FIP among 102 ML starters with 100 or more innings pitched. Sale and Price have been pitching fairly well aside from what happens on balls in play; but when the ball is put in play, disaster strikes. Porcello has been pitching terribly by any measure, but BIP results have made him look worse too.
Rodriguez, by contrast, has worse FIP/xFIP/SIERA numbers than Sale or Price, but is on the good side of the ERA-minus-FIP ledger, and so his ERA has been the best of the four.
The Sox easily trail the league in ERA-minus-FIP overall. And it seems hard to pinpoint the cause. They do have one of the highest BABIP allowed numbers in the league -- .311, second only to Detroit's .313. Yet Sox pitchers are not showing any particular signs of giving up harder contact than others: their Hard% is second lowest in the league, and their Soft% is the highest. Their HR/FB is below league average. Defensively, they're fringe-average by DRS and above-average by UZR. Fenway will always elevate BABIP somewhat, but not necessarily enough to account for what we're seeing. It's just....somehow, balls are dropping.
Since he rejoined the rotation, BJ has given up 9 ERs, of which 6 came in the first inning. This seems like a good time to test out the "opener" concept, isn't it?
And along with those balls dropping in, the Sox are nearly 4 full games below our pythag win%, and the MFYs are 6+ wins over their expected W-L record. We might be left with little more than "shit happens" to explain this year.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/standings/
Wow, and even further below our 2nd-order pythag. Wild that by 2nd-order we're essentially dead even with the Yanks (with both teams well behind the Rays), yet here we are looking up at a 15+ deficit. Last year we were really good at converting individual performances into runs and runs into wins. This year we suck at it.
The immutable laws of the universe, following a season in which everything went perfectly...
This is fascinating.
I had a feeling this off-season (which I didn’t post for fear it would just start an annoying conversation, because I had little more than gut to point to) that the Rays might actually be the best team in the division. I was thinking about their amazing second half, their elite pitching staff, their good team defense, and all the pitching they had (and still have) in the pipeline. They made some very solid lineup acquisitions in the offseason, too.
I have been bearish on the Yankees rotation forever, and expected some regression from a Sox team that couldn’t really be *that* good.
But it didn’t really pan out that way — or did it?
Now 9 of 12 ERs in the first inning.
Three of five starts giving up 3 ER in the first inning, then nothing else afterward.
