Staying Under $189M: The Impossible Dream

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
I'm not sure what you are getting at.  Wells has a cap number of $0.00 this year thanks to the contribution.  If they traded Wells, they would have to trade the contribution (I would guess) so I'm not sure how their cap number would be reduced.
 
This is correct.
 
Wells is not costing them anything this year.  (Well, he's costing them the minimum, which is essentially nothing.)  His entire reason for being in a Yankee uniform is the fact that the subsidy was structured to make his cost essentially zero for this year. 
 
If the Yankees want to trade Wells, they'll do it because they have determined that staying under the cap is a pipe dream and they might as well not have a non-productive player on their roster.  (This assumes that they will not be able to trade him without passing along the full subsidy.)
 

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bankshot1 said:
50% tax on Yankee payroll of $200M in 2014 :  (200-189) = $5.5 million
 
Lets assume the Ys come under the cap in in '14, and save the luxury tax hit, but for lack of another quality SP, or Cano, or whatever, finish out of the '14 post-season. And attendance/ratings suffer, its not a crazy scenario. For the sake of argument lets say attendance falls by 100,000, (fell about 260,000 in '13) and YES ratings stay about the same.  If we value the average revenue of those Y-tickets at $50, its a wash.
 
So they spend money in '15, and go over the cap (kept the same for simplicity)
 
17% tax on 220 M payroll (220-189) = 5.1 million
50% tax on 220M  payroll (220-189) =15 million
 
Can someone explain to me why saving a $5MM-$10MM for a year or two, by staying under the $189MM cap in '14, is worth the potential revenue offset lost if Y-fans don't buy tickets plans or watch YES, or the potential harm to the $3 billion franchise brand, if Y-fans don't consume the product as they have in the past? Either this is lip-service to avoiding conspicuous consumption, or just a red herring. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me, particularly for a team lacking a cheap fix in the minors.
It's not the luxury tax .. It's the revenue sharing rebate .. Which has been reported to be anything up to 100 million
 

bankshot1

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Thanks. I thought I saw a $40-50 million for the potential rev sharing rebate, but I thought that the Ys had to be under the cap for 2014-2016 to be eligible for the rebate.
 

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So, there are slight differences in the math, but all equations result in the Yankees having about 30-35 million left under the tax (or cap, if you prefer, even though it really isn't).  Given this, the Ellsbury signing becomes even more astonishing.  By signing Ells, the Yankees now cannot do all of the following:  re-sign Cano; acquire at least one solid, somewhat high priced pitcher (say Garza or Tanaka); stay under the tax threshold.  Depending on the ARod situation, they may not even be able to do 2 of the 3.  Basically, anything less than a full year supspension for ARod will keep them from doing so. 
 
In essence, the Yanks chose to sign Ells instead of Cano, or pitching, or stay under the tax.  Hard to believe they value Ells more than any of those other three.  The only plausible scenario is that they have already made the decision to go over the cap, because chosing Ells over Cano or over upgrading their rotation makes no sense, especially since they already had some depth in the outfield.
 

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Sox and Rocks said:
So, there are slight differences in the math, but all equations result in the Yankees having about 30-35 million left under the tax (or cap, if you prefer, even though it really isn't).  Given this, the Ellsbury signing becomes even more astonishing.  By signing Ells, the Yankees now cannot do all of the following:  re-sign Cano; acquire at least one solid, somewhat high priced pitcher (say Garza or Tanaka); stay under the tax threshold.  Depending on the ARod situation, they may not even be able to do 2 of the 3.  Basically, anything less than a full year supspension for ARod will keep them from doing so. 
 
In essence, the Yanks chose to sign Ells instead of Cano, or pitching, or stay under the tax.  Hard to believe they value Ells more than any of those other three.  The only plausible scenario is that they have already made the decision to go over the cap, because chosing Ells over Cano or over upgrading their rotation makes no sense, especially since they already had some depth in the outfield.
 
An equally plausible scenario is that they are going to try to scrape by to make the second WC this year, then go nuts in FA next year to fix their pitching.  
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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nattysez said:
 
An equally plausible scenario is that they are going to try to scrape by to make the second WC this year, then go nuts in FA next year to fix their pitching.  
 
If staying under the cap was so important, they should have added a ninth year to Ellsbury for minimal money to lower the AAV.  Given their current budget situation, the AAV is much more important that dealing with Ellsbury when he is 38.
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
If staying under the cap was so important, they should have added a ninth year to Ellsbury for minimal money to lower the AAV.  Given their current budget situation, the AAV is much more important that dealing with Ellsbury when he is 38.
Sort of the old NHL contract trick?  Uh, yeah, we've signed Alexei Yashin to a 27 year contract with 50 million dollars of value in the first 7 years and then NHL minimum for 20 more years.
 

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nattysez said:
 
An equally plausible scenario is that they are going to try to scrape by to make the second WC this year, then go nuts in FA next year to fix their pitching.  
Yeah, I guess it's also possible they wanted to upgrade their position players this year with McCann, Ells, and possibly re-signing Cano while completely ignoring their rotation and bullpen.  Use 2014 as a year to evaluate their younger pitchers while hoping to be competative (they probably won't be without pitching additions, but you never know), and then use next offseason and future ones to load up on pitching in the free agent market. 
 

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Well, this is it.  Seattle's allegedly offered 10/230-240 for Cano and the MFY claim to be talking to Kuroda.  They can't have them both at full price and stay under $189m.
 
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
If staying under the cap was so important, they should have added a ninth year to Ellsbury for minimal money to lower the AAV.  Given their current budget situation, the AAV is much more important that dealing with Ellsbury when he is 38.
 
Why would Boras and Ellsbury give away a year of earning potential as a favor to the MFY? 
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
I'm not sure what you are getting at.  Wells has a cap number of $0.00 this year thanks to the contribution.  If they traded Wells, they would have to trade the contribution (I would guess) so I'm not sure how their cap number would be reduced.
 
My bad,  I read the chart a bit above my thread, and read it to believe that the 18 million was actually counting towards the cap
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Sox and Rocks said:
Given this, the Ellsbury signing becomes even more astonishing.  By signing Ells, the Yankees now cannot do all of the following:  re-sign Cano; acquire at least one solid, somewhat high priced pitcher (say Garza or Tanaka); stay under the tax threshold.  Depending on the ARod situation, they may not even be able to do 2 of the 3.  Basically, anything less than a full year supspension for ARod will keep them from doing so. 
 
In essence, the Yanks chose to sign Ells instead of Cano, or pitching, or stay under the tax.  Hard to believe they value Ells more than any of those other three.  The only plausible scenario is that they have already made the decision to go over the cap, because chosing Ells over Cano or over upgrading their rotation makes no sense, especially since they already had some depth in the outfield.
 
I agree.  The more I think about it, the more I cannot fathom why they signed Ellsbury.  Sometimes I wonder if Cashman isn't intentionally sabotaging the team the best he can without actually getting fired.
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
I agree.  The more I think about it, the more I cannot fathom why they signed Ellsbury.  Sometimes I wonder if Cashman isn't intentionally sabotaging the team the best he can without actually getting fired.
 
I would guess it didn't have much to do with Cashman and everything with Boras talking Hal into it from a financial angle. Presumably we'll hear the story at some point, hopefully before too long. 
 

ivanvamp

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nattysez said:
 
If the numbers upthread are right, they can't sign Kuroda for $16mm and stay under $189m unless Cano is going to sign for under $20m/year.  
 
I don't think for one second that they're going to stay under that number.
 

jon abbey

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That Jeter incentive money gives them some leverage to maybe still squeeze in Cano under $189M if they are then done, I think. 
 

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If reports of Cano going to Seatlle are true, it would appear that staying under 189 is still the goal.


No doubt about it. So now they've got, what, about $20M to $25M for Ubaldo, Garza, AJ Burnett (!?!)
 

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LeoCarrillo said:
No doubt about it. So now they've got, what, about $20M to $25M for Ubaldo, Garza, AJ Burnett (!?!)
I hope they bring back Burnett and he enjoys a similar return to that of Javier Vazquez.
 

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With just about every FA getting more than they should command, I don't think they can land 3 of those guys for $25MM. It's a great time to be a FA.
 

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Cano signing with Seattle is a relief. Bring in someone like Infante, and go sign a starting pitcher.
 
Funny that Seattle fans were the most offended when A-Rod left for Texas and then to NY. They will treat Cano as a hero for reversing the process.
 
Cano was the best Yankee second baseman of my lifetime, probably better than HOF'er Joe Gordon. I suspect he will be cheered in late April when the Mariners visit NY. Hard not to like the guy. Wish him the best in that hitter's death bin called Safeco Field. He's going to turn a lot of doubles into singles with his HR trot out of the box.
 

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rembrat said:
With just about every FA getting more than they should command, I don't think they can land 3 of those guys for $25MM. It's a great time to be a FA.
 
Huh? They only need one more SP, certainly not three. Unless CC and Kuroda turn it around, it's not going to matter anyway, but if they do: CC, Kuroda, Nova, and then two of Phelps/Pineda/Warren/Nuno for now. 
 

rembrat

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jon abbey said:
 
Huh? They only need one more SP, certainly not three. Unless CC and Kuroda turn it around, it's not going to matter anyway, but if they do: CC, Kuroda, Nova, and then two of Phelps/Pineda/Warren/Nuno for now. 
 
Well, I was replying to someone's suggestion that they sign all 3 of those guys.
 

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With just about every FA getting more than they should command, I don't think they can land 3 of those guys for $25MM. It's a great time to be a FA.


Yeah, I just meant $25M to shop with, not to get all three. More like one and keep a little powder dry.
 

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Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
I'm guessing that Ubaldo is about to get a call.  And a big offer to where the pinstripes
 
I'd think Garza would be far preferable, especially since no #1 for him and a #1 for Jimenez. 
 

ivanvamp

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So up to this point, the Yankees have lost Cano and Granderson and added Ellsbury and McCann.  2013 v. 2014 contracts:
 
2013
Cano:  $15m
Granderson:  $15m
TOTAL:  $30m
 
2014
Ellsbury:  $21.9m
McCann:  $17m
TOTAL:  $38.9m
 
So they're spending more money for no appreciable upgrade to their roster.  Works for me.  
 
EDIT:  They're also paying an extra $1 million to keep Kuroda ($15m in 2013, $16m in 2014), who is simply a year older.
 

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Who hits No. 3? Teixiera probably the best bet. This lineup has a lot of slap hitters -- Ellsbury, Gardner, Jeter, whoever plays 2B.
 
JA, is there a thread for the 2014 Yankees yet?
 

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terrynever said:
JA, is there a thread for the 2014 Yankees yet?
 
All of these threads seem fairly overlapping at this point, but feel free to start a new one. I have to say that with my two favorite players departing within minutes today (Cano/Granderson), not sure if I'll be watching nearly as much this year. 
 

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jon abbey said:
 
All of these threads seem fairly overlapping at this point, but feel free to start a new one. I have to say that with my two favorite players departing within minutes today (Cano/Granderson), not sure if I'll be watching nearly as much this year. 
I'm kind of reinvigorated and will start a 2014 thread later this afternoon. Part of my malaise with the Yankees has been fueled by overspending. I wanted them under $189M, perhaps just because they said they would try to do it. I think they can put together a contender and stay under $189M. It's going to be interesting to see how Cashman fills in the holes.
 
I will be even happier when they buy out the rest of A-Rod's contract.
 

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terrynever said:
I'm kind of reinvigorated and will start a 2014 thread later this afternoon. Part of my malaise with the Yankees has been fueled by overspending. I wanted them under $189M, perhaps just because they said they would try to do it. I think they can put together a contender and stay under $189M. It's going to be interesting to see how Cashman fills in the holes.
 
I will be even happier when they buy out the rest of A-Rod's contract.
 
Don't worry, the overspending will begin again in full force in 2015 - although not sure who is out there.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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nattysez said:
Well, this is it.  Seattle's allegedly offered 10/230-240 for Cano and the MFY claim to be talking to Kuroda.  They can't have them both at full price and stay under $189m.
 
 
Why would Boras and Ellsbury give away a year of earning potential as a favor to the MFY? 
 
Sorry, thought there was a way to tack on an additional option year to lower AAV without it really counting but after re-reading salary cap rules, may not be possible.
 
nattysez said:
 
If the numbers upthread are right, they can't sign Kuroda for $16mm and stay under $189m unless Cano is going to sign for under $20m/year.  
 
If you are talking about my numbers, Kuroda was already counted in (although at $15.5).  So they have approximatley $30M to fill 2B, possibly 3B, probably another starting pitcher, a closer, probably some more relievers, have a contingency if they need major help during the season, and possibly have a contingency if ARod gets to play any part of the season.
 
I would laugh really hard if the MFYs managed to stay under $189 all year but then some appeal or settlement gave ARod a portion of his salary pushing them past $189.  Yes I know that's not very likely, but it;s a funny thought nonetheless.
 

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Their free agent 3B options are really unappealing and, somewhat hilariously, involve a lot of former Yankees. Do they bring one of the recent castoffs (Youk, Chavez, Reynolds) back into the fold? Go old school with some Wilson Betemit action?

Edit: Looking further upthread, I guess Omar Infante is also an option. But he really hasn't played much 3B and its not clear that his defensive skills, which have driven his value over the last few years at 2B other than a 2013 that looks like an outlier with the bat, will translate. He's probably the best player but also the guy likely to command the shittiest contract.
 

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terrynever said:
Cano signing with Seattle is a relief. Bring in someone like Infante, and go sign a starting pitcher.
 
Funny that Seattle fans were the most offended when A-Rod left for Texas and then to NY. They will treat Cano as a hero for reversing the process.
 
Cano was the best Yankee second baseman of my lifetime, probably better than HOF'er Joe Gordon. I suspect he will be cheered in late April when the Mariners visit NY. Hard not to like the guy. Wish him the best in that hitter's death bin called Safeco Field. He's going to turn a lot of doubles into singles with his HR trot out of the box.
Maybe batting average doesn't mean much, but I read (espn?) that Cano has the highest BA in Safeco (.308) after Ichiro (.320) On the other hand, his pace to first may slow even further with all that guaranteed $.
 

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So now the Yankees acquire either Choo or Beltran to fill out the lineup.
 
They then need a 2nd baseman. Everyone here keeps saying Infante. Is there a better option?
 
And I guess they spend money on either Garza or Jiminez because there's really no other good pitcher out there available to buy.
 
That still leaves a question mark at 3rd base (or even SS).
 
It's interesting now that the Yankees have virtually unlimited money to spend with the Cano and Rodriguez (partially) contracts off the books, but so little to spend it on.
 
Do they have anything another team wants in trade?
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
So now the Yankees acquire either Choo or Beltran to fill out the lineup.
 
They then need a 2nd baseman. Everyone here keeps saying Infante. Is there a better option?
 
And I guess they spend money on either Garza or Jiminez because there's really no other good pitcher out there available to buy.
 
That still leaves a question mark at 3rd base (or even SS).
 
It's interesting now that the Yankees have virtually unlimited money to spend with the Cano and Rodriguez (partially) contracts off the books, but so little to spend it on.
 
Do they have anything another team wants in trade?
Gary Sanchez is a nice catching prospect and he's blocked now with McCann.
 

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Gary Sanchez is a nice catching prospect and he's blocked now with McCann.


Not really. By the time he's ready, McCann will need to DH.

Either way, they don't have much to trade. Gardner?
 

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crow216 said:
Not really. By the time he's ready, McCann will need to DH.

Either way, they don't have much to trade. Gardner?
If they really are going to sign another outfielder--and I'm not convinced they are--they have to get rid of someone.  Wells has no trade value.  Ichiro has no trade value.  It would have to be Gardner.
 

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BAHAHAHA
 
Why in God's name would they sign Choo?
 
You have never have enough OFs?
 

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geoduck no quahog said:
So now the Yankees acquire either Choo or Beltran to fill out the lineup.
 
They then need a 2nd baseman. Everyone here keeps saying Infante. Is there a better option?
 
And I guess they spend money on either Garza or Jiminez because there's really no other good pitcher out there available to buy.
 
That still leaves a question mark at 3rd base (or even SS).
 
It's interesting now that the Yankees have virtually unlimited money to spend with the Cano and Rodriguez (partially) contracts off the books, but so little to spend it on.
 
Do they have anything another team wants in trade?
Kelly Johnson played 16 games at third base for Tampa last season. He has played a lot of second base and left field during his career. Maybe he plays second and Infante, if they sign him, goes to third base. Though I prefer Infante at second. It's all way too early, of course. Cashman makes the deals. I imagine they developed a backup plan at the organizational meetings in November, backup for if Cano bolted.
 

nattysez

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Assuming the numbers I cited in my first post are right, the Kuroda deal leaves the MFY with $18-25mm left, depending on how worried they are about Jeter's incentives ($4M for AL MVP; $2M for 2nd-6th in MVP vote; $1.5M for Silver Slugger; $0.5M each for Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, WS MVP).  
 
Unless Scott Boras has lost his mind, they're not getting Choo for less than $18mm AAV, so they'll have somewhere between no and very little room left under the cap if they sign him.  
 

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nattysez said:
Assuming the numbers I cited in my first post are right, the Kuroda deal leaves the MFY with $18-25mm left, depending on how worried they are about Jeter's incentives ($4M for AL MVP; $2M for 2nd-6th in MVP vote; $1.5M for Silver Slugger; $0.5M each for Gold Glove, ALCS MVP, WS MVP).  
 
 
Thanks for the laugh. :lol:
 
Arod getting a 6 million bonus for hitting 6 more HR is more of a concern, if he ever plays another game for the Yankees which is doubtful IMO
 
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