Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread

[lexrageorge]

Yeah, Beal will be onto the downside of his career.m by the time Tatum can even think about making trade demands.

The Celtics have a lot of stuff that needs shoring up, but this angle is fine.

Now back to waking up at night unable to sleep, imagining what the future would be if we had been able to draft Herro instead of Langford (true story).

The Beal of today is definitely better than Jaylen Brown, although hard to measure how wide the gap is given the imperfection of defensive metrics; I'm one of those weirdoes that thinks Brown's defense is quite a bit better than Beal's, but YMMV.

The chances that a 32 y/o Beal will be better than a 29 y/o Brown are slim.

 

[lovegtm]

The Beal of today is definitely better than Jaylen Brown, although hard to measure how wide the gap is given the imperfection of defensive metrics; I'm one of those weirdoes that thinks Brown's defense is quite a bit better than Beal's, but YMMV.

The chances that a 32 y/o Beal will be better than a 29 y/o Brown are slim.

Also if Brown improves, you have a chance to re-sign him, whereas you probably don’t want to re-sign 32 yo Beal.

 

[the moops]

I don't think we really shouldn't be worrying about a 32 year old Beal considering he is only 27. Way too much can change to try and plot a course 5 years from now

 

[lexrageorge]

I don't think we really shouldn't be worrying about a 32 year old Beal considering he is only 27. Way too much can change to try and plot a course 5 years from now

You absolutely do worry about a 32 y/o Beal if the tradeoff is to trade Jaylen Brown now in a misguided attempt to somehow "appease" Tatum.

 

[Jimbodandy]

You absolutely do worry about a 32 y/o Beal if the tradeoff is to trade Jaylen Brown now in a misguided attempt to somehow "appease" Tatum.

That matters only if this "worry about shit five years out" line of thinking matters.

 

[TripleOT]

The smart move would be to sign Beal as a UFA after next summer, assuming he opts out of the last year of his deal. Or have him just force Washington's hand by making them trade him for Kemba's expiring deal and picks.

 

[DGreenwood]

Beal can't opt out until the summer of 2022, correct?

 

[NomarsFool]

"The extension, which is worth the maximum of $72 million, begins with the 2021–22 season and includes a player option for the 2022–23 season."

Beal makes too much money to be traded to the Celtics (not that they'd trade him anyway).

Bradley Beal Agrees to Max Contract Extension With Wizards

 

[luckiestman]

Is there any evidence (speculation doesn't count) that Tatum would rather play alongside Beal than Brown for the next several years?

Beal used to walk Tatum home from school or something like that. They’re still close I think. I don’t expect it to lead to trade demands or anything but playing together is probably a childhood dream.

 

[the moops]

Beal makes too much money to be traded to the Celtics (not that they'd trade him anyway).

They can match his salary any number of ways.
Jaylen
Smart + Thompson + Romeo
Smart + Theis + Romeo + Pritchard
Thompson + Theis + Romeo + Nesmith + Semi

Now obviously those all are drastically different offers, but BOS can easily match the salary

Or several other permutations so

 

[lexrageorge]

"The extension, which is worth the maximum of $72 million, begins with the 2021–22 season and includes a player option for the 2022–23 season."

Beal makes too much money to be traded to the Celtics (not that they'd trade him anyway).

Bradley Beal Agrees to Max Contract Extension With Wizards

From a salary cap standpoint, the Celtics only have to match Beal's 2020-21 salary. The salary in future years doesn't matter unless your Wyc Grousbeck writing the checks (and it may matter to him):

They can match his salary any number of ways.
Jaylen
Smart + Thompson + Romeo
Smart + Theis + Romeo + Pritchard
Thompson + Theis + Romeo + Nesmith + Semi

Now obviously those all are drastically different offers, but BOS can easily match the salary

Or several other permutations so

 

[NomarsFool]

They can match his salary any number of ways.
Jaylen
Smart + Thompson + Romeo
Smart + Theis + Romeo + Pritchard
Thompson + Theis + Romeo + Nesmith + Semi

Now obviously those all are drastically different offers, but BOS can easily match the salary

Or several other permutations so

I guess I should have said the Celtics can’t trade for him without giving up some of their core.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I guess I should have said the Celtics can’t trade for him without giving up some of their core.

Which isn’t a problem because he instantly would replace any part of the core that gets sent out. I would think long and hard about a Jaylen/Beal deal. I would move on a Smart+/Beal deal in a heartbeat. But that obviously wouldn’t even remotely be interesting for WAS. It has to be Jaylen, which is why it’s pretty unlikely.

 

[BaseballJones]

Just looking at Beal vs. Brown is interesting. But here's the question. Beal is an alpha. Brown is not (could he be? Maybe...but he's got Tatum as the alpha here). Would Tatum or Beal be willing to take a step back in the pecking order? What would Beal's presence here do to Tatum's development? Maybe nothing. Maybe it helps. But maybe it doesn't. Maybe Beal being the alpha causes problems. Or maybe Tatum being the alpha causes problems for Beal.

But Beal is great. 27 years old, in his prime, 30+ points a game scorer. Worse shooter than Jaylen, but can fill it up for sure. Just not sure how Beal/Tatum would work together. Positionally, it's a great fit - one is a wing, the other is a guard. But still....not sure about the fit.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Just looking at Beal vs. Brown is interesting. But here's the question. Beal is an alpha. Brown is not (could he be? Maybe...but he's got Tatum as the alpha here). Would Tatum or Beal be willing to take a step back in the pecking order? What would Beal's presence here do to Tatum's development? Maybe nothing. Maybe it helps. But maybe it doesn't. Maybe Beal being the alpha causes problems. Or maybe Tatum being the alpha causes problems for Beal.

But Beal is great. 27 years old, in his prime, 30+ points a game scorer. Worse shooter than Jaylen, but can fill it up for sure. Just not sure how Beal/Tatum would work together. Positionally, it's a great fit - one is a wing, the other is a guard. But still....not sure about the fit.

Their like best buds from St Louis so I wouldn’t be too worried about any hierarchy problems. I think Beal would know that it’s Tatum’s team for the next decade. Bigger question for me is whether or not it makes sense to trade 24 year-old Jaylen for 27 year-old Beal. Beal is undoubtedly the better player now but how long will that last? When you factor in defense, it gets closer. And then when you layer in the 3 year age gap, it gets even closer.

I ultimately don’t think anything happens now that they have Westbrook and will likely contend for a playoff spot.

 

[lovegtm]

We'll also know a lot more in the next few months about how Jaylen is progressing. Same goes for various other young guys, who will fluctuate a lot in trade value from now to when the next star is available.

The only guarantee is that the value of most of the Celtics assets will look fairly different then than now, for better or worse.

 

[benhogan]

We'll also know a lot more in the next few months about how Jaylen is progressing. Same goes for various other young guys, who will fluctuate a lot in trade value from now to when the next star is available.

The only guarantee is that the value of most of the Celtics assets will look fairly different then than now, for better or worse.

Yep. that combined with a $28.5 TPE sets Danny up to land a star next summer. No need to move Jaylen Brown. or youngsters at the moment

 

[Jimbodandy]

We'll also know a lot more in the next few months about how Jaylen is progressing. Same goes for various other young guys, who will fluctuate a lot in trade value from now to when the next star is available.

The only guarantee is that the value of most of the Celtics assets will look fairly different then than now, for better or worse.

This is true.

It's a good problem to have when we're discussing whether our 24yo wing makes sense in a trade for a 30ppg alpha guard.

 

[DGreenwood]

When I first voted in this poll I picked "Save it for next summer's free agent bonanza" assuming that a sign-and-trade was the best way to add a $28.5 million player without giving up a lot of assets. But I just realized they already have over $130 million committed to 11 players next year, and the sign-and-trade will trigger the tax apron.

We don't know what the apron will be next year but we know it will go up (or down) by 1/2 of whatever the salary cap goes up (or down) by, and we know that the apron is about $139 million this year.

My point is that the TPE is not a free ticket to add a $28.5 million player through a sign-and-trade without having to send out much. They'll need to clear salary ($15 million+) to stay under the hard cap that it will trigger. I figured I'd mention it in case anyone else was making the same mistake I was.

I'm now thinking they'll use part of it this year at the trade deadline and then possibly use the rest of it in an offseason trade (not a free agent sign-and-trade).

 

[the moops]

Yep. that combined with a $28.5 TPE sets Danny up to land a star next summer. No need to move Jaylen Brown. or youngsters at the moment

If BOS is to land a star, the TPE will not be necessary, for it means that Jaylen is being moved. They just don't have enough other assets for someone to trade them a star

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Yeah, part of why I've always been lower on the TPE than benhogan is that to use it you have to send assets out and for the first time in a long time Celts really don't have much in the way of draft assets. While they do have young players, the only ones who aren't key core guys are unproven. So, sure, if (say) Romeo really shows up strong this year you might be able to package him and unprotected picks for a star but that's a pretty speculative scenario.

I do think it is an interesting asset and they can add a rental this year and a mid-tier player in the offseason which is very valuable. But the draft pick cost will be material unless they are getting salary dumps.

 

[lexrageorge]

When I first voted in this poll I picked "Save it for next summer's free agent bonanza" assuming that a sign-and-trade was the best way to add a $28.5 million player without giving up a lot of assets. But I just realized they already have over $130 million committed to 11 players next year, and the sign-and-trade will trigger the tax apron.

We don't know what the apron will be next year but we know it will go up (or down) by 1/2 of whatever the salary cap goes up (or down) by, and we know that the apron is about $139 million this year.

My point is that the TPE is not a free ticket to add a $28.5 million player through a sign-and-trade without having to send out much. They'll need to clear salary ($15 million+) to stay under the hard cap that it will trigger. I figured I'd mention it in case anyone else was making the same mistake I was.

I'm now thinking they'll use part of it this year at the trade deadline and then possibly use the rest of it in an offseason trade (not a free agent sign-and-trade).

One advantage of using the full MLE on Tristan Thompson is that it gives them a single expiring contract to ship out in the scenario above, thereby getting them 2/3'rds of the way there in terms of shipping out salary. The Celtics have had a shortage of contracts in the $10M to $15M range, excepting Marcus Smart.

 

[DGreenwood]

One advantage of using the full MLE on Tristan Thompson is that it gives them a single expiring contract to ship out in the scenario above, thereby getting them 2/3'rds of the way there in terms of shipping out salary. The Celtics have had a shortage of contracts in the $10M to $15M range, excepting Marcus Smart.

Tristan's contract did come to mind, and is a good point. But if they go this route they better be using the TPE on a big because that $130 m commitment for next year doesn't include Theis. Sending out Thompson leaves them with Timelord and G Williams to play the 5 and a hard cap preventing them from adding much.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Yeah, part of why I've always been lower on the TPE than benhogan is that to use it you have to send assets out and for the first time in a long time Celts really don't have much in the way of draft assets. While they do have young players, the only ones who aren't key core guys are unproven. So, sure, if (say) Romeo really shows up strong this year you might be able to package him and unprotected picks for a star but that's a pretty speculative scenario.

I do think it is an interesting asset and they can add a rental this year and a mid-tier player in the offseason which is very valuable. But the draft pick cost will be material unless they are getting salary dumps.

The finances of the league will be far less predictable than every other year. They will be all kinds of fucked too, with not only cratered on-site revenue but also the "other businesses" of these owners taking a hit. At worst, a lot of teams/owners will find themselves cash poor. And even if the covid revenue plague recedes faster than we think, there will likely be panic sell-offs due to the uncertainty of it all.

I'm with you that it's far from a given, but I think that chances are high that good people will be available not just mid-season but in the summer offseason as well.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, part of why I've always been lower on the TPE than benhogan is that to use it you have to send assets out and for the first time in a long time Celts really don't have much in the way of draft assets. While they do have young players, the only ones who aren't key core guys are unproven. So, sure, if (say) Romeo really shows up strong this year you might be able to package him and unprotected picks for a star but that's a pretty speculative scenario.

I do think it is an interesting asset and they can add a rental this year and a mid-tier player in the offseason which is very valuable. But the draft pick cost will be material unless they are getting salary dumps.

you, Moops, and I have no idea which young players are going to develop into valuable trade chips this summer. That's why I agreed with lovegtm's above point.

You are giving next to no value to young players that are going to play substantial minutes this season. We already have injuries and a condensed schedule to make that a reality.

My crystal ball is a little foggier than yours, but I'd bet 1 or 2 guys pop by the Summer (which one of Granite, Romeo, Carsen, Tre, TL, Pritchard, Nesmith, Tacko and even Mader overseas... I don't know?). I guess that's why I (and probably the Celtics front office) have been higher on the TPE than you for the last few months.

Jaylen Brown is a developing star, signed and aligned with our present star, he just isn't getting dealt.

 

[benhogan]

The finances of the league will be far less predictable than every other year. They will be all kinds of fucked too, with not only cratered on-site revenue but also the "other businesses" of these owners taking a hit. At worst, a lot of teams/owners will find themselves cash poor. And even if the covid revenue plague recedes faster than we think, there will likely be panic sell-offs due to the uncertainty of it all.

I'm with you that it's far from a given, but I think that chances are high that good people will be available not just mid-season but in the summer offseason as well.

Yep. There are a few team owners in hospitality and commercial real estate.

COVID finances are making this incredibly unpredictable for the next 2 seasons. The Celtics will be one of the few teams that can add a large salary without sending money back. I don't know which teams, but I'd bet a few teams in purgatory will want to avoid tax penalties, reset repeater and rebuild.

and Danny will be there with young cheap assets, unencumbered draft picks and a large TPE.

 

[ColonelMustard]

you, Moops, and I have no idea which young players are going to develop into valuable trade chips this summer. That's why I agreed with lovegtm's above point.

You are giving next to no value to young players that are going to play substantial minutes this season. We already have injuries and a condensed schedule to make that a reality.

My crystal ball is a little foggier than yours, but I'd bet 1 or 2 guys pop by the Summer (which one of Granite, Romeo, Carsen, Tre, TL, Pritchard, Nesmith, Tacko and even Mader overseas... I don't know?). I guess that's why I (and probably the Celtics front office) have been higher on the TPE than you for the last few months.

Jaylen Brown is a developing star, signed and aligned with our present star, he just isn't getting dealt.

Great take and one I'm hoping for as well with the TPE.

Yep. There are a few team owners in hospitality and commercial real estate.

COVID finances are making this incredibly unpredictable for the next 2 seasons. The Celtics will be one of the few teams that can add a large salary without sending money back. I don't know which teams, but I'd bet a few teams in purgatory will want to avoid tax penalties, reset repeater and rebuild.

and Danny will be there with young cheap assets, unencumbered draft picks and a large TPE.

I disagree. Owners have material sources of wealth coming from equity markets and private investments. Wealth managers are predicting that COVID-19 does not mean an overall decrease in demand and will result in pent-up demand. With debt markets at historically low rates, unless an owner is facing immediate bankruptcy, there isn't going to be a firesale. Owners buy teams to stroke their egos and they like to be winners.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

you, Moops, and I have no idea which young players are going to develop into valuable trade chips this summer. That's why I agreed with lovegtm's above point.

You are giving next to no value to young players that are going to play substantial minutes this season. We already have injuries and a condensed schedule to make that a reality.

My crystal ball is a little foggier than yours, but I'd bet 1 or 2 guys pop by the Summer (which one of Granite, Romeo, Carsen, Tre, TL, Pritchard, Nesmith, Tacko and even Mader overseas... I don't know?). I guess that's why I (and probably the Celtics front office) have been higher on the TPE than you for the last few months.

Jaylen Brown is a developing star, signed and aligned with our present star, he just isn't getting dealt.

I agree it could happen, I just think it is uncertain whether it does---that is where I differ from you. Your comment was that the TPE "sets Danny up to land a star next summer"---I hope that is true, and agree it could be. But it's far from a certainty.

I think pretty unlikely the Celtics view that development as a certainty either. Worth noting their first preference by all reporting was re-signing Hayward and the TPE was only a fallback which they preferred to nothing. This precisely how I've valued it since the discussion began----a TPE has value, and one this large has more value. But you don't know what you can turn it into, so a good player who you have 'for sure' is worth more. Certainly, if they are willing to absorb the full $28 mil long-term that opens up a lot of options--but given lux tax I think that's not super likely.

 

[benhogan]

I agree it could happen, I just think it is uncertain whether it does---that is where I differ from you. Your comment was that the TPE "sets Danny up to land a star next summer"---I hope that is true, and agree it could be. But it's far from a certainty.

I think pretty unlikely the Celtics view that development as a certainty either. Worth noting their first preference by all reporting was re-signing Hayward and the TPE was only a fallback which they preferred to nothing. This precisely how I've valued it since the discussion began----a TPE has value, and one this large has more value. But you don't know what you can turn it into, so a good player who you have 'for sure' is worth more.

A lot of good things can happen with the TPE between now and next Summer. The optionality is really where a lot of the value resides for Danny.

Landing a star next summer clearly is not a certainty and I never said it was. It's just one of the potential great things Danny could do with it (esp if 1-2 youngsters pop).

But appears like you think the TPE is worth more than you did 6 weeks ago. I recall a few people around here calling a TPE pretty worthless back then

If Danny lets the TPE expire worthless next Summer then I'll be here to offer my mea culpa

 

[benhogan]

Great take and one I'm hoping for as well with the TPE.




I disagree. Owners have material sources of wealth coming from equity markets and private investments. Wealth managers are predicting that COVID-19 does not mean an overall decrease in demand and will result in pent-up demand. With debt markets at historically low rates, unless an owner is facing immediate bankruptcy, there isn't going to be a firesale. Owners buy teams to stroke their egos and they like to be winners.

You don't even need a firesale. Purgatory teams rebuild all the time. Resetting the cap to avoid repeater (like the C's did by not overpaying GH) is what many teams do during a rebuilding phase.

A lot of good players on 2-3 yr contracts have no interest in playing for a rebuilder and will demand a trade.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I'm confident the TPE is getting used, at least partially, but am expecting it to be on a bench piece/spot starter type. Any dreams of a real impact player coming here seem pie-in-the-sky to me. But I also think it's unrealistic to think that Ainge won't use it at all. A guy like Dejounte Murray seems like a "best case" scenario, IMO.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

A lot of good things can happen with the TPE between now and next Summer. The optionality is really where a lot of the value resides for Danny.

Landing a star next summer clearly is not a certainty and I never said it was. It's just one of the potential great things Danny could do with it (esp if 1-2 youngsters pop).

But appears like you think the TPE is worth more than you did 6 weeks ago. I recall a few people around here calling a TPE pretty worthless back then

I quoted you accurately above, and I agree with your revised description here that landing a star is not a certainty.

I don't see it any differently now; I think it is an asset, but ultimately they still have to do something with it. I agree with you there's some people who have said it is pretty worthless and I do think it is a legit asset.

 

[lovegtm]

It's extremely likely they'll do something with it. The worst case is a future 1st+2nds for middling vet wing help, either at the deadline or in a S&T.

The upside scenario is that a youngster or two pops, which opens up a lot of options.

Obviously they would have preferred to have Hayward back at 4/100, but the TPE downside scenarios are pretty capped, with some decent upside ones, and that's a totally fine outcome.

 

[the moops]

GSW got Kelly Oubre Jr for a top 20 protected 1st round pick and a 2nd rounder. That seems like a good deal for GSW and something similar to that is what I would expect for BOS

 

[lovegtm]

GSW got Kelly Oubre Jr for a top 20 protected 1st round pick and a 2nd rounder. That seems like a good deal for GSW and something similar to that is what I would expect for BOS

Exactly: those types of dudes are out there and eminently gettable. It's a good fallback option that will be there.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Agreed, and that's also why they preferred Hayward: he's a better player than Oubre and he didn't cost those extra assets.

I think many of us are aligned on the value. And it's ok to have people above and below that consensus too.

 

[the moops]

Exactly: those types of dudes are out there and eminently gettable. It's a good fallback option that will be there.

And I wouldn't be surprised if GSW looks to move Oubre at the deadline and try and get back a better asset than they gave up

 

[TripleOT]

Oubre is a member of the Drew Hanlen/Tatum clique. He can put up points, 18.7 in 34.5 minutes, and has upped his scoring every season. He’a not the playmaker Hayward is, but he could give the Celtics the same or better scoring and rebounding at half the price.

How is he defensively?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

How would people feel about Jerami Grant?

Can he even be traded?

 

[128]

How would people feel about Jerami Grant?

Can he even be traded?

Why would be Pistons move him? He was their marquee free-agent signing, and he's really talented.

 

[Cellar-Door]

How would people feel about Jerami Grant?

Can he even be traded?

He can soon, but he would be PISSED. He picked Detroit when nobody else would over Denver, for his role, but also because he wanted to play for Casey. If they dumped him.... woof.

 

[128]

Grant had 31 and 10 tonite in Detroit's win over PHX. The Pistons ain't letting him go. He might be their best player.

 

[lovegtm]

Yeah, Grant looks like an emerging stud on a great contract. The Celtics don't have the assets, and Detroit probably sees him as a building block.

 

[the moops]

May as well fire this up again with the trade that just happened.

Cleveland, who already had a big rotation of Drummond, Love, Nance, McGee - just added Jarret Allen, and to a lesser and smaller extent, Taurean Prince. Maybe they plan on zagging, and go ultra big, but you gotta think after giving up a first for Allen, he is their man, and they may need to move on from one of the other dudes.

He has been talked about before, but Nance keeps popping up as an option. He has slowly added a 3 point shot, 34% on 1.5 3PA, 35% on 2.8 3PA, and 42% on 3.8 3PA, the past 3 years. He has some appeal as a 4 and small ball 5. Has a team friendly descending contract and is signed for 2 more years after this one (11.7 mill, 10.7 mill, 9.7 mill)

Wonder if them recouping a future first that they gave up to get Allen would be enough.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Unfortunately I get the sense that Koby Altman is pretty sharp. Nance is a good player on a really nice contract. From what I’ve read, he’s a great locker room guy and very well liked in Cleveland. I’d love him on the Celtics, but I don’t see the Cavs parting with him for what we’d want to give.

 

[Cellar-Door]

yeah, the Cavs don't have a bigs logjam, they have the frontcourt they will build around and then they have Andre Drummond's expiring and Kevin Love's contract.

 

[Chainsaw318]

I keep trying to figure this out and haven’t seen a good explainer. Is the TPE eaten up by remaining salary or annual salary?

For example, if a player has an $10 million dollar contract, and you trade for them midway through the year, does that count $5 million remaining for the season against the TPE, or does it count the annual value?

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

I keep trying to figure this out and haven’t seen a good explainer. Is the TPE eaten up by remaining salary or annual salary?

For example, if a player has an $10 million dollar contract, and you trade for them midway through the year, does that count $5 million remaining for the season against the TPE, or does it count the annual value?

Annual salary.

 

[benhogan]

I keep trying to figure this out and haven’t seen a good explainer. Is the TPE eaten up by remaining salary or annual salary?

For example, if a player has an $10 million dollar contract, and you trade for them midway through the year, does that count $5 million remaining for the season against the TPE, or does it count the annual value?

you'd take $10MM credit off the Hayward $28.5MM TPE. Regardless if the player is added at the beginning of the season or at the midway point

That would leave $17.6MM for Danny to spend & 2 separate TPEs (Kanter ~$5MM & $2.6MM Poirier) that can't be combined

 

[Chainsaw318]

Thank you. That made the most sense, as otherwise saving it for midsession made the remainder enormously more valuable.


I’m not a hard core hoop-head, and I don’t think they go this route, but I have been checking in on Derozan and Aldridge on the Spurs.

Both would be helpful complementary players for this year, and we would have the ability to RE-sign or possibly sign and trade either of them, correct?

Aldridge would fit at the 5 or possibly the 4, depending on what went out to get him, and maybe would take less to play another couple years. Derozan would add wing depth this year, but would likely want a bigger contract and role elsewhere.