$27 million for 32 year old Derozan would be a hell of a thing to do, especially since his role would be bench offense during brief periods where neither Brown nor Tatum are on the floor.
Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
- Thread starter NomarsFool
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I could understand this if Ainge truly thinks the Celtics are one more good wing player away from a championship. I don't see it though. Derozan is having an excellent year - he is shooting less, distributing more, and has added a 3 point shot. His defense is still garbage, but maybe not as garbagey as before?
I think he tries to use the TPE on someone who is signed to a reasonable deal for a couple years. Hence the idea of Nance.
I think you're right. A few guys that would qualify (and remaining salary/years):
Harrison Barnes (22.2, 20.3, 18.4): Only if Sac starts to tank since he's been great this year and would obviously cost a lot but has reasonable, declining contract that would be attractive.
Aaron Gordon (18.1, 16.4): Not likely since Orlando is playing pretty well but would fit the profile. Like Barnes, would cost a lot.
Bogdan Bogdanovic (18, 18, 18, 18): Not sure when he can be traded and is currently out a while but ATL appears to have a glut at the wing position so maybe they would entertain.
Dejounte Murray (14.3, 15.4, 16.6, 17.7): Spurs not likely to tank and Kemba seeming on track to return so this one is probably a non-starter but would fit the profile.
Cedi Osman (8.8, 8.1, 7.4, 6.6): Wouldn't be that exciting and is shooting like crap so far but is normally a decent player and his contract declines over time.
Truthfully, I don't see a whole lot of realistic options at this point.
I'm kind of intrigued by Derozan. He's not a "stopper" but he has size at least and the additional scoring option would be really nice when one of Tatum or Brown goes to the bench. It's not the most amazing use of the money, but I kind of think he's been super underrated since being in SA.
I'll put it this way - after seeing what Golden State did with their exception (Oubre), my expectations are low and Derozan would be better than that outcome.
I'll put it this way - after seeing what Golden State did with their exception (Oubre), my expectations are low and Derozan would be better than that outcome.
He's been excellent on offense, even better than usual, but his on/off numbers are not pretty on defense:
https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/player/867/onoff#tab-team_efficiency
Bottom 1st and 2nd percentile in the league in terms of points per possession against and eFG% allowed when he's on the court, and overall the Spurs are 13.8 points worse per 100 when he's on the court (bottom 13th percentile). Continues a long history of his teams being significantly worse when he's on the court. He's such an enigma.
Agreed. I'd only take DeRozan as a buyout (not happening). Not using the entire TPE on him. Would rather wait until the summer and see if better opportunities arise.
Continue to pardon some of my cap ignorance, but would carrying a multi-year commitment bone the team moving forward? Would they over the cap enough they would lose the exceptions the could otherwise use to add?
I was under the impression that you could go over to sign a guy on your roster, or create another exception in a sign and trade with a guy leaving as a free agent, but that otherwise, with the 3 big contracts on the roster currently and Smart, adding another would be limiting.
Sorry, I'm not a cleaning the class subscriber - curious what the lineups are w/o Derozan. I just see the top six and he's in them all. Outside of Murray, he doesn't seem to be surrounded by world-beaters on defense typically.
Not saying he's the ideal solution, but looking forward to the playoffs, it would be a real luxury to have competent offensive play for all 48 minutes.
Not saying he's the ideal solution, but looking forward to the playoffs, it would be a real luxury to have competent offensive play for all 48 minutes.
Celtics are going to be in cap hell for a while unless they can somehow dump Kemba. Some hefty tax bills are coming so it's just a matter of how much Wyc and Co are willing to pay. Our top 4 guys will account for $92M on next year's cap so adding another big salary on top of that will be problematic. It's probably why Ainge is looking for lesser deals unless a true impact talent becomes available (like an Oladipo, for instance). Smart's next deal will correspond to the last year of Kemba's (Kemba is 100% opting in given his health) so I'm guessing they re-sign him.
Not sure what you’re looking at, he’s on 3 of the Spurs top 6 lineups according to B-ref. The lineup data on cleaning the glass is only for lineups with Derozan in them.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2021/lineups/
It’s a very small sample size that does not adjust for luck, so I’d take it with a bigger grain of salt if it didn’t follow his trend over the past 5 years, which is similarly terrible on defense.
All that said, I absolutely think he’d be a very useful player leading the second unit with his scoring and playmaking.
Not my $ but getting under the cap this year really helps the tax bills down the line. That's why I doubt that Cs will use a significant portion of the TPE this year. Looks like they about $13.4M under luxury tax line so as mentioned upthread, they'll probably wait until summer to use it.
Agreed. It would be fiscal malpractice to shoot the moon unless some god tier guy becomes available somehow. DD coming off the bench would absolutely help this team, same with a guy like VO. But those guys aren't worth having to break up the band in two years because their tax bill is the GDP of Malaysia.
Just to add to what BSF said and address the possible sign and trade this summer. They are in such cap hell that they won't be able to use anywhere near the full TPE to add an impact player in a sign and trade this summer without sending out significant salary. A sign and trade triggers the tax apron and they will already be pretty close to the apron just with existing salaries.
It's hard to argue against your point, but I also suspect Gordon might look better with a fresh start in a different environment. It must feel like Groundhog Day to him in Orlando.
Yeah, that was my feeling prior to the game as well. But man, he just looks not very good. You can project the defense improving in a better situation (although Clifford has a strong track record), but it's unclear to me that he would be better than, say, Semi in the Celtics current offense.
Yeah, the tax situation is going to be rough. It's hard for me to be interested in taking on significant salary right now unless it's exactly the right kind of player, since more salary probably means Smart is gone.
If they could somehow find a Joe Harris type in the $15M range, I would be all over it. The problem is that I can't think of anyone like that who will be available.
If the Cs get Gordon, I;m guessing that they don't put him in the corner like Semi.
I'd still take a gamble with Gordon if the price was right as a buy low candidate. He really should be better. As I said in the game thread, it doesn't look like Magic like playing with each other and there were a lot of guys just going 1 on 1 to get shots up IMO. He didn't even touch the ball on the first few opening possessions.
I'm a sucker for guys who can really defend and the Cs could use a guy with his size and athleticism on D. Hopefu;;y, the Cs would be able to coach up his offense and shooting mechanics.
Yeah, this might just be a fundamental difference of opinion. My view is that the Jays are improving so rapidly that the limiting factor is going to be the shooting to surround them, as long as they're not defensive sieves. The Celtics have plenty of guys who can defend, and I think that's an area they should be trading off to improve the top-end offensive potential.
Gordon looked awful last night, fully agree.
I do think he’s a profile who looks a lot different as a fourth option than a 1st/2nd and he can contribute on defense and passing in ways not a lot of guys they might get can.
The Celts don’t have someone with Gordon’s defensive profile, as Bam showed last year. He’s a better and more athletic version of Theis
I do think he’s a profile who looks a lot different as a fourth option than a 1st/2nd and he can contribute on defense and passing in ways not a lot of guys they might get can.
The Celts don’t have someone with Gordon’s defensive profile, as Bam showed last year. He’s a better and more athletic version of Theis
If the Pels continue in the dumpster, what about JJ Redick? His 3P % is way down this year (29% on 5.5 attempts/game), but he was still elite last year (43.5% on 6.6 A/G). His salary is a tad over $13M this year (final year of contract). His defense isn't great, but this article from 2019 suggested he was getting a bit better.
Yeah I would love Reddick, if the price isn't prohibitive. A late 1st might get it done, and it's a close call as to whether it's worth it.
I don't think that I would want him for free, given the salary structure implications and the opportunity cost of not filling that slot with a shooter.
Let’s say (hypothetically) one of Nesmith and Romeo gets good this year, like 30 mins/game of good defense and floor spacing good.
Does that change how you want to use the TPE? I’d be less inclined to go for a passable wing at that point, and more wanting to spend assets to really upgrade. Moving Smart as part of a deal becomes interesting at that point, simply because a) he’s a positive trade asset b) he’s going to get expensive in 2022, and I would rather have a shooter at that salary.
Does that change how you want to use the TPE? I’d be less inclined to go for a passable wing at that point, and more wanting to spend assets to really upgrade. Moving Smart as part of a deal becomes interesting at that point, simply because a) he’s a positive trade asset b) he’s going to get expensive in 2022, and I would rather have a shooter at that salary.
YES...hypothetically
If any of our popcorn pops just a little, that could potentially lead to a Beal, Hield, Wood or to a lesser extent Bertans, Nance, Vucevic... obviously, those teams would need the white flag out and going in a different direction. Danny is also open to all teams that want/need to restructure their salary cap going forward. At worse go for a vet on an expiring (PJ, Ross, Ellington, Bjelica) then go into next Summer with a large chunk of the TPE
I have to think it's been Danny/Brad's strategy (since GH left/TPE) of letting:
1. JayCrew leap/star, so they can set up a 5+yr run
2. giving regular-season minutes to youngsters (to build equity value) for a larger deal
3. avoiding the repeater, so they can aggressively spend around JayCrew for next year & beyond (that means paying for Smart IMO)
Hard pass for me on Vucevic and Nance—I don’t think this team needs another big, even with floor spacing, and the salary for the former is very unattractive.
Hield is kind of the dream for me, not sure what that would take. Hield+Jaylen+Tatum+center+shooter would be unguardable.
I don’t see how they can put together the assets to get Beal unless it’s a Kemba to the Knicks type thing.
Yea there is a point of diminishing returns from having all shooters on the floor and neglecting defense from the 5 (TT has me irked at the moment, I irrationally want him out).
If I squint I can see a Hield opening. New GM, Haliburton emergence, Sac. roster getting expensive, going to a much younger timeline, Hield grumbling in the past, Hield with a down start to the year.
Yeah, you don’t have to squint that hard. Smart for Hield is a good base for a deal, and I’d be fine adding in a bit extra.
Wouldn't Sac want younger assets to dream on? and a serving of Tristan Thompson's $10MM salary
Plus we'll need Smart to do hand-to-hand combat with Harden/Kyrie in the playoffs. Smart, nyet, pay that man hiz money!
JayCrew/Kemba creating/drawing up top, with Hield waiting for the corner 3 (50% career) is near damn unstoppable. A corner 3 sniper really bends defenses.
Thompson+assets is workable too; I’d just prefer to sell high on Smart and keep more assets, given the current team composition and skillsets. I realize that’s a minority position here. I’m not comfortable paying his next deal either.Wouldn't Sac want younger assets to dream on? and a serving of Tristan Thompson's $10MM salary
Plus we'll need Smart to do hand-to-hand combat with Harden/Kyrie in the playoffs. Smart, nyet, pay that man hiz money!
JayCrew/Kemba creating/drawing up top, with Hield waiting for the corner 3 (50% career) is near damn unstoppable. A corner 3 sniper really bends defenses.
As for the appeal to Sac—Smart is younger than Hield, and a great player to add to a team with young talent that needs Winning Plays. He’s very pluggable.
Feels like a reasonable deal would be Smart and one of Nesmith/Langford for Hield. Kings get a valuable asset in Smart that they can keep or offload for additional assets and a young shooter in Nesmith who may be able to turn into Buddy-lite if his development goes well or a nice defensive wing in Langford. Both would come with multiple years of control. Losing Smart would sting but, like you, I don't want Smart's next contract and the thought of the Jay's/Kemba with Hield ready to snipe is pretty attractive. And Hield's deal is pretty reasonable for an elite shooter right in the middle of his prime.
I don't expect Danny to trade Smart but Hield would be a reasonable target if he did. And if Wyc and Co want to pay some coin, I would absolutely take Hield into the TPE and keep Smart.
I would much rather deal Langford or picks than Nesmith, and I like Langford. I just think the Celtics need to prioritize shooting (with competent defense) over everything.
I’m with you. I’m much more bullish on Nesmith’s career. I’m guessing most GMs feel the same way given he has more years of control and a much better shooting skill set. But if Hield is actually obtainable, I’m not letting Nesmith get in the way.
I'd really rather not trade Smart - in last year's playoffs, he was the guy who seemed most comfortable with the bright lights. I can see the Jays getting to Playoff Alpha mode, but having Smart vs. not might make the difference in when the next banner goes up in the rafters.
Smart plus for Hield is a terrible idea. He's a volume 3 point shooter whose numbers have been trending down for several years, and doesn't offer much else on the court. His 2 point shooting is Teaguesque. Much prefer a guy like Barnes or T. Young, a productive 4 who can replace Semi and Granite's minutes, that's where we need an upgrade.
The thing is, the choice isn’t Smart or no Smart. It’s Smart or an elite 3 and some D type wing. They simply can’t afford both of those things, and I’d rather have the latter.
Much better to replace Semi/Grant’s minutes with a shooting 2/3, and put Brown or Tatum at the 4.
I mean, sure I think most people would trade Smart for an elite 3 and D type wing. But Buddy Hield sure as shit is not that. Buddy Hield is a bad defender who is a good 3 pt shooter
I would be willing to trade Smart. I would not be willing to trade Smart for a player he is younger, cheaper and very arguably better than.
To me the upgrade from 35% 3pt shooter to 40% 3pt shooter isn't worth the major defensive decline. I'd need the guy I trade Smart for to either be an above average defender or a truly elite scorer, or, borderline elite scorer and young enough to improve.
But no team is trading this for Marcus Smart, even with additional mediocre assets attached. I would like to see Hield out of the Sacramento environment. He's not a good defender but wondering what Brad could do with him. But I think the ultimate point, and why Smart is hard for us to deal, is that finding equal value for him in trades is pretty tough. Ainge will only make him available for a special talent, game changing talent. And I don't blame others for thinking that Hield isn't special enough. I've long been intrigued by him (and even wanted him in 2016 draft at #3...yikes) but probably in the minority on that. I'm also probably more wishy washy on Smart than most.
Hmmmm...this might be a fundamental difference of opinion. I think that going from a 35% guy to a high-volume 40% guy is an extremely material change for an offense. I also think that the Jays + centers + role players are good enough to cover defensively for a guy who's a mediocre/bad but not IT-level defender.
Marcus Smart is an ok shooter, but he doesn't provide the gravity that will really open things up for the Jays. I guess I'm also bearish on his defense aging well.
I would guess they'd probably have better luck trading Smart for a lotto pick from a Minnesota/New Orleans (or even Sacramento) type team that has a bunch of young players and a GM that can't afford to keep trotting out garbage teams and thinks Marcus could provide a culture change. As BSF says, his value is odd to gauge, which is also true of draft picks.
Yeah, I'd be interested in exploring that market too, either to make the pick or package it with the TPE for bigger game.
And the problem with that approach is that taking Smart off this team in favor of a future asset makes zero sense for a team that is right on the doorstep of contention. It would have to be in conjunction with another, bigger move or perhaps a 3 team trade.
I think that trade is a complete disaster---Smart is very important to the team defensively and as insurance for Kemba role-wise. Hield is not worth his contract and while his skillset would be useful on this team the post-trade team is worse with just that swap....let alone adding in another young player.
Basketball is about a bunch of things---several of the posts in this thread overfocus on shooting which is very important but not the be-all, end-all, and scoring is usually overrated (and certainly is in this thread)
On twitter Ryan Bernardoni is going about this differently. He's arguing for Ainge making a godfather offer to Toronto for OG. Think Time Lord, Romeo, 4 first round picks. OG is a 23 year old who looks like he could be the premier 3 and D wing of the NBA for a while.
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1354062594978545665
If he manages to hang onto one of Neismith or Romeo in this situation, I think that guy can be the first wing off the bench. I think a team built around Kemba/JT/JB/OG + Smart, Pritchard and 1 of Neismith/Romeo (and 2 centers) is better than a team that subtracts Smart/OG and adds Buddy Hield (and draft picks). In out years Kemba can transition to a Lou Williams role and Smart can start. That team would allow 90 points a game and would score 115.
View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1354062594978545665
If he manages to hang onto one of Neismith or Romeo in this situation, I think that guy can be the first wing off the bench. I think a team built around Kemba/JT/JB/OG + Smart, Pritchard and 1 of Neismith/Romeo (and 2 centers) is better than a team that subtracts Smart/OG and adds Buddy Hield (and draft picks). In out years Kemba can transition to a Lou Williams role and Smart can start. That team would allow 90 points a game and would score 115.
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Not to pile on but it’s fucking insane to think that the Celtics would need to add assets to Marcus Smart in a trade to get Buddy Hield. Like absolutely certifiable.
Not only that but are we sure that we even want Hield? Based off of his actions with Sacramento I don’t think I want to bring him in as a secondary option who’s only offense is from catch and shoot opportunities.
it’s interesting because it seems like the valuation of Hield is wildly different depending on who you ask. Based off of the podcasts and article i consume, I get the sense that NBA fans (hardcore and casual alike) think much higher of Buddy than people that actually work in the league. I’m not sure if the reason for that but something I am going to pay closer attention to coming up
Hield's salary is $18.6M the next 2 years. He is worth every penny of that, especially if you use Bogdanovic as a comp. And he's a better shooter than Bogdan. I think having Hield playing off the Jay's would have immense value so we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. Fair points on Kemba insurance.