Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread

What should the Celtics do with their TPE

  • Use it before the current season starts

    Votes: 6 4.6%
  • See what is available around the NBA trade deadline and level up for the playoffs

    Votes: 55 42.3%
  • Save it for next summer's free agent bonanza

    Votes: 69 53.1%

  • Total voters
    130

radsoxfan

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Barnes has been underwhelming in large part, I think, because he was the nation's No. 1 recruit coming out of high school and a top-7 pick in the NBA draft. He's been hyped for much of his career and was expected to be a difference-maker, which clearly he's not. But he'd be a great No. 3 or No. 4 option on an elite team, and that would be his role on the Celtics, who already have Tatum and Brown and, of course, Pritchard.
He's a pretty average NBA player, I don't know about being a "great #3 or #4 option on an elite team". He's been a bit better than average this year but I don't know why we think those shooting numbers are sustainable.

Again, on this Celtics team an average NBA wing not named Tatum or Brown would be a welcome sight. But people thinking he's some great 3rd banana are going to be very disappointed.
 

The Mort Report

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This is waaaaay outside the box, but Toronto seems like a very aggressive franchise and usually have a plan. They also seem like the kind of team that if they think they are destined for 4-7 place finishes the next couple years they will not hang onto fringe pieces that they can turn into possible upgrades down the road. With Lowry being 34 in his last year of his deal, they have a solid core with OG, VanVleet, Siakam and Boucher, but are lacking a true #1. While he has probably the most punchable face in the NBA, and doesn't completely fit the C's need, would they maybe consider trading Powell? Nesmith and a pick?

Yes, the path to this happening is very small, but if it was feasible I think he'd be a solid target
 

HomeRunBaker

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He's a pretty average NBA player, I don't know about being a "great #3 or #4 option on an elite team". He's been a bit better than average this year but I don't know why we think those shooting numbers are sustainable.

Again, on this Celtics team an average NBA wing not named Tatum or Brown would be a welcome sight. But people thinking he's some great 3rd banana are going to be very disappointed.
Wasn’t Harrison already a great 3rd/4th option on a Championship team? For the options available to us I’d imagine he’d be one of the top if not the top prize. Your 3rd option doesn’t have to be an All-Star......just a guy to take minutes from Ojeleye, Grant and whoever the 2nd big is between TT/Theis.
 

radsoxfan

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Wasn’t Harrison already a great 3rd/4th option on a Championship team? For the options available to us I’d imagine he’d be one of the top if not the top prize. Your 3rd option doesn’t have to be an All-Star......just a guy to take minutes from Ojeleye, Grant and whoever the 2nd big is between TT/Theis.
I agree, an average NBA wing would be great to take minutes away from Semi/Grant etc. He's a clear upgrade for this Celtics team, no doubt about it.

Is it worth using the TPE and a inheriting a 3 year overpriced contract? I'm not so sure, depends on the other options I suppose.

Barnes was just a guy on the Warriors, nothing special. Curry, Thomspon, Draymond, Iguodala, and Bogut were all more valuable than him. Harrison was young then so there was hope would turn into more than that but unfortunately he never did.

Average NBA players don't grow trees, as we have seen this year it's not always easy to find someone that doesnt stink. Just don't get your hopes up that Barnes is more than he is.
 

benhogan

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You have said the opposite consistently from the pre-season on, arguing repeatedly that they should play the kids and develop them rather than add until next offseason. You have in fact specifically opposed all sorts of different types of additions to help on the wing, from draft picks to FA signings, to smaller trades, arguing that their wing depth is fine. I cannot really imagine you would try to dispute that, but if you really are---we can all go find your posts arguing there's plenty of wing depth.

Your interest in Ellington is no more than a couple weeks old---though i give you credit for recognizing that in fact they need more. And they need it now, not next year. I love your passion as a fan and a poster, but c'mon...you staked out "sufficient wing depth island" all year and you own that as much as you own your love of Baynes.
My stance since the pre-season has always been to wait for the sellers to come out at the trade deadline.

I speculated in the preseason that: Houston would be terrible, Fertitta's hospitality biz would suck, COVID would be bad for attendance/revenue for owners. Harden would demand a trade and PJ Tucker could be had for peanuts. I thought they'd be aggressive in moving players but Houston did some clever moves and they are ok.

We even speculated/debated on how many teams would-be sellers. Some thought the play-in game would make more teams interested in adding, I think it's a gimmick. I may be wrong there after seeing the Knicks add Rose. But I still expect there will be 6-8 sellers.

The Celtics didn't want to hit the repeater tax, so we all figured Gordon would be moved (@nighthob had given us all the heads up on this since last season along with the cap/repeater situation).
Before the Hayward exit, a bunch of us wanted them to sign Gordon and move Kemba. BUT the Hayward deal dragged on for days and Danny missed out on all the good wings. A large TPE was a good option.

Question: Why would I favor a large TPE if I didn't want them to add a player(s) with it?

You suggested the idea of signing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or Trevor Ariza ($13MM?). I didn't think that was a good use of regular-season minutes or cap. I still don't. You felt it was imperative to sign a wing after GH left, my stance was to be patient.

Develop kids as players and as trade assets until the trade deadline when there will be more talent available and use some of the TPE. I believe that's what Danny is doing?
It's pretty basic, this stuff isn't exactly splitting atoms.

Here's my early Svi Mykhailiuk interest from 9/29.

Harris/Bertans received minutes on teams (Nets/Wash) going nowhere. They were given the green light to shoot often in low leverage situations. They blossomed, it happens quite often. Developing kids on contenders is tricky and why Miami/Toronto should be commended (and mimic'd)

I could see, Svi Mykhailiuk, in Detroit making a similar Bertans/Harris leap. If you're looking for a diamond in the rough, dirt cheap bench shooter, he's your target IMO.

The Celtics tried the "Duncan Robinson approach" with Carsten Edwards, and greenlit him in the G-League. Carsten just failed miserably year 1. He'll get another shot up North next season (unless he's part of a bigger trade deal). Popcorn in a pan
 
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lovegtm

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My stance since the pre-season has always been to wait for the sellers to come out at the trade deadline.

I speculated in the preseason that: Houston would be terrible, Fertitta's hospitality biz would suck, COVID would be bad for attendance/revenue for owners. Harden would demand a trade and PJ Tucker could be had for peanuts. Houston did some clever moves and they are ok.

Several of us speculated/debated on how many teams would-be sellers. Some thought the play-in game would make more teams interested in adding, I think it's a gimmick. I may be wrong there after seeing the Knicks add Rose. But I still expect there will be 6-8 sellers.

The Celtics didn't want to hit the repeater tax, so we all figured Gordon would be moved (@nighthob had given us all the heads up on this since last season along with the cap/repeater situation).
Before the Hayward exit, a bunch of us wanted them to sign Gordon and move Kemba. BUT the Hayward deal dragged on for days and Danny missed out on all the good wings. A large TPE was a good option.

Question: Why would I favor a large TPE if I didn't want them to add a player(s) with it?

You suggested the idea of signing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson or Trevor Ariza ($13MM?). I didn't think that was a good use of regular-season minutes or cap. I still don't. You felt it was imperative to sign a wing after GH left, my stance was to be patient.

Develop kids as players and as trade assets until the trade deadline when there will be more talent available and use some of the TPE. I believe that's what Danny is doing?
It's pretty basic, this stuff isn't exactly splitting atoms.

Here's my early Svi Mykhailiuk interest from 9/29.
Yeah, this is all pretty basic shit. We all want a wing upgrade, and no one currently available is/was an upgrade (Ariza truthers aside). That will likely change, and it sounds like the Celtics are signaling to the league their willingness to bid hard for that guy when he comes available.

In the past, a future first or so has generally gotten you pretty good players (by the standards of what the Cs need) once teams figure out they're sellers. The price might be higher this year because of the play-in, but the Celtics have enough assets for the level of guy required.

Until then, you try to develop younguns so that they have at least neutral trade value when the time comes, and maybe you hit on a PP who becomes a part of the future.

Wanting to play young guys != "green-colored glasses and never want to deal for vet help". There's an order of operations, particularly before the standings shake out each season.
 

Devizier

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How about Kyle Anderson? He's not a sexy pick but the guy can defend and played an important role for a bunch of contending Spurs teams. Started the season hurt, but is healthy now. Signed for one year after this one.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Kyle Anderson was on my list beginning of year and I think the same question is out there: does Memphis want to move him? You can see why they might, at least once JJJ Clarke are healthy and as they explore more with Bane. He's not a knock-down shooter, but can handle, pass, and defend. To me, he's a budget version of Barnes
 

128

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I agree, an average NBA wing would be great to take minutes away from Semi/Grant etc. He's a clear upgrade for this Celtics team, no doubt about it.

Is it worth using the TPE and a inheriting a 3 year overpriced contract? I'm not so sure, depends on the other options I suppose.

Barnes was just a guy on the Warriors, nothing special. Curry, Thomspon, Draymond, Iguodala, and Bogut were all more valuable than him. Harrison was young then so there was hope would turn into more than that but unfortunately he never did.

Average NBA players don't grow trees, as we have seen this year it's not always easy to find someone that doesnt stink. Just don't get your hopes up that Barnes is more than he is.
I think the disconnect here centers on the definition of "average NBA wing." To me, that's Semi Ojeleye, though that may well be generous in his case.

Anybody who's capable of putting up 28 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists in a game, as Barnes did in a win over Denver the other night, or 24 and 6, as he did in a win over Boston last week, is considerably better than "average," IMO.

Oh, for the C's to have a wing not named Tatum or Brown who averages 17 points and 6 boards and is shooting 42 percent from 3-point range.
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm probably stating the obvious here, but the question isn't whether guys like Barnes (or Hield for that matter) would help this year. They would help(unless the cost includes current roster players who are better). The question isnt a development one to me either (like "oh noes, Romeo/Nesmith is blocked now").

The question is whether the available player is worth:
A. missing out on a tax reset or
B. burning out some or most of the Haywould TPE

IMO the bar is very high for A, like way higher than Barnes. But I'm leaning towards being willing to eat some of the opportunity cost of B for a crack at it this year.
 

benhogan

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John Collins would be my go ALL-IN with Celtic assets acquisition with the idea of eventually moving Kemba this summer

JC was unhappy with Trea's quick trigger a month ago. Maybe Atlanta figures they aren't going to pay up for him this off-season (w/Capella, Gallinari, Bog, Hunter, Okongwu all signed long term). They refused to max him this past offseason, so they probably don't see him as a cornerstone player.

JC wouldn't trigger the repeater this season. Isn't ball dominant.Timelines with JayCrew. Is that 4/5 that Brad really wants in his offense (hits 42% of his corner 3s). The C's could match any team's price this summer (RFA), which would turn him into a long-term asset.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/01/08/report-john-collins-and-trae-young-disagreeing-about-hawks-offense/
John Collins, the fourth-year big man who just weeks before bet on himself in a big way during his failed extension talks with the Hawks, shared his unfiltered and unhappy views about the way franchise centerpiece Trae Young was running the offense. According to three sources who were either in the session or had knowledge of what was said, Collins raised several issues about the way these Hawks were functioning with Young at the helm.
Collins talked about the need to get into offensive sets more quickly and to limit all those early shot-clock attempts that leave his teammates on the outside looking in. He shared his desire to be more involved and expressed a desire for more ball involvement and flow on offense.
There was no back-and-forth between the two, but the pointed criticism caught the attention of the room. And Young, sources say, made it clear to others later that he strongly disagreed with Collins’ assessment.
At least one Hawks player told The Athletic he believed the aftermath of Tuesday’s film session carried over into Wednesday’s game and was the reason for Young’s passive and lethargic performance.
 

BigSoxFan

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John Collins would be my go ALL-IN with Celtic assets acquisition with the idea of eventually moving Kemba this summer

JC was unhappy with Trea's quick trigger a month ago. Maybe Atlanta figures they aren't going to pay up for him this off-season (w/Capella, Gallinari, Bog, Hunter, Okongwu all signed long term). They refused to max him this past offseason, so they probably don't see him as a cornerstone player.

JC wouldn't trigger the repeater this season. Timelines with JayCrew. Is that 4/5 that Brad really wants in his offense (hits 42% of his corner 3s). The C's could match any team's price this summer (RFA), which would turn him into a long-term asset.

https://nba.nbcsports.com/2021/01/08/report-john-collins-and-trae-young-disagreeing-about-hawks-offense/
Collins would be a great addition but I feel like the Celtics would get outbid pretty easily for him, if he were made available. Figure any offer would be something like Time Lord, Nesmith/Romeo, and pick(s) but don't think that does the job if a team like OKC comes calling.
 

lovegtm

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Collins would be a great addition but I feel like the Celtics would get outbid pretty easily for him, if he were made available. Figure any offer would be something like Time Lord, Nesmith/Romeo, and pick(s) but don't think that does the job if a team like OKC comes calling.
Sure, but teams also might be wary of Collins’ next contract, which will lower the price at least somewhat.

The problem, of course, is that if you deal for him, you’re committed to being that team that pays the next deal. It’s tricky, and depends a lot on internal evaluation of JC.
 

the moops

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If OKC wants him, they can just offer him the max in the offseason. I don't think them giving up assets now helps them. Maybe an inside track on him resigning, but I don't think there is going to be a max offer for him, so they can just overpay in the offseason in terms of cap space rather than assets now.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sure, but teams also might be wary of Collins’ next contract, which will lower the price at least somewhat.

The problem, of course, is that if you deal for him, you’re committed to being that team that pays the next deal. It’s tricky, and depends a lot on internal evaluation of JC.
I would gladly pay him his next deal if we are able to dump Kemba on somebody for picks. We're talking about a 23 year-old (24 in September) athletic big who is averaging 18/8 while shooting 55/41/83. What am I missing with him? I admittedly haven't watched too much of his game but he always looks pretty good when I do.

I'd be all over this.
 

benhogan

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Collins would be a great addition but I feel like the Celtics would get outbid pretty easily for him, if he were made available. Figure any offer would be something like Time Lord, Nesmith/Romeo, and pick(s) but don't think that does the job if a team like OKC comes calling.
Maybe? I don't see OKC as a buyer just yet, think they have fun with this year's deep/talented draft. Wait until the Horford/Hill contracts expire before opening the wallet next season.

Celtic assets: TL, Grant, Romeo, Nesmith are some decent youngsters to offer along with picks.

I'm sure there would be a fair amount of competition for JC, but it's high time for Trader Danny to finally reappear. I'd also go knock on Houston's door, see if they want to cash in on Christian Wood early with a haul and some picks.

The one positive element of being 12-10 is our 2021 1st rounder may have some perceived value. We're a Tatum season-ending injury from being bounced early this year?
 

NomarsFool

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To borrow from the Athletic today, here's what they had as the Celtics playoff rotation:

Point guard: Kemba Walker, Payton Pritchard
Wings: Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye
Big men: Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, Grant Williams

So, obviously, Semi Ojeleye is a weak link in the chain - but the Wings include 3 of the "core four" as the Celtics PR team has been hyping all season. So, come playoff time, are there really enough wing minutes to justify spending for a substantial upgrade on Semi? Should they be looking to get somebody who's just a bit better / more consistent than Semi? The other confounding factor is that GW is actually playing well lately, and is a "shooter with size", although not as versatile a defender on the perimeter as Semi, for example.
 

benhogan

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To borrow from the Athletic today, here's what they had as the Celtics playoff rotation:

Point guard: Kemba Walker, Payton Pritchard
Wings: Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye
Big men: Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, Grant Williams

So, obviously, Semi Ojeleye is a weak link in the chain - but the Wings include 3 of the "core four" as the Celtics PR team has been hyping all season. So, come playoff time, are there really enough wing minutes to justify spending for a substantial upgrade on Semi? Should they be looking to get somebody who's just a bit better / more consistent than Semi? The other confounding factor is that GW is actually playing well lately, and is a "shooter with size", although not as versatile a defender on the perimeter as Semi, for example.
you make a good point on wing minutes and why Barnes doesn't make much sense this season.

Unfortunately, Kemba is probably the weak link. Feels like it's a coin flip he makes it to the playoffs healthy enough to be the 3rd banana on offense and not be a complete git on defense.

You could add a wing with the thought that Smart/PP share the Point (with Kemba on the injury shelf)
 

Saints Rest

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Correct me if I'm wrong (which is quite likely), but in the case of a TPE, doesn't much of the appeal to the other team come from the fact that they are shedding themselves of money on the cap with nothing coming back? Thus it is most appealing to teams who are trying to open up lots of cap space for next year to sign a max FA, OR to teams who are trying to shed dollars in this current year to get under the repeater tax?
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Correct me if I'm wrong (which is quite likely), but in the case of a TPE, doesn't much of the appeal to the other team come from the fact that they are shedding themselves of money on the cap with nothing coming back? Thus it is most appealing to teams who are trying to open up lots of cap space for next year to sign a max FA, OR to teams who are trying to shed dollars in this current year to get under the repeater tax?
That's true, but the issue is that we're presumably trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold, and are hardcapped due to using the full MLE this year, so there's only so much salary we can take back without running into those issues unless we're sending back appreciable salary at the same time, which defeats the purpose you identify.
 

BigSoxFan

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That's true, but the issue is that we're presumably trying to stay under the luxury tax threshold, and are hardcapped due to using the full MLE this year, so there's only so much salary we can take back without running into those issues unless we're sending back appreciable salary at the same time, which defeats the purpose you identify.
Yup. A team that has more cap flexibility could certainly use the TPE to take on a bad salary and pick up some useful assets. That's not really what we're going to do, IMO, unless Kemba can somehow be offloaded (I remain skeptical on this front).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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To borrow from the Athletic today, here's what they had as the Celtics playoff rotation:

Point guard: Kemba Walker, Payton Pritchard
Wings: Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye
Big men: Daniel Theis, Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, Grant Williams

So, obviously, Semi Ojeleye is a weak link in the chain - but the Wings include 3 of the "core four" as the Celtics PR team has been hyping all season. So, come playoff time, are there really enough wing minutes to justify spending for a substantial upgrade on Semi? Should they be looking to get somebody who's just a bit better / more consistent than Semi? The other confounding factor is that GW is actually playing well lately, and is a "shooter with size", although not as versatile a defender on the perimeter as Semi, for example.
It all depends on the player. If the player is good enough, you can consistently start a guard, 3 wings (Jays + new guy), and a big, which is how they have operated in the past and clearly how they would prefer to play. Who that guard would be is up in the air.

Doesn't matter if it pushes Smart to the bench as he would certainly be on the floor at the end of the game either way.

In the playoffs, that gets you something like:
Tatum and Brown - 40 min each
Walker and Pritchard - 25 min each
Smart - 35 min
Theis and Thompson - 35-38 min total
R. Williams - 10-13 min
New Guy - 27 min

That's a pretty tight 9 man rotation with some flexibility to go small or bigger as needed. You can certainly still work Semi and Grant in there. I do think the minutes are there. Every playoff minute is too precious to spend wondering if this is the night that Semi/Grant/Green will be useful or awful. New Guy in this scenario has to be really good though.
 

NomarsFool

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Will Stevens really only play Walker and Pritchard 25 minutes each? He has consistently played KW a lot off ball with another PG on the floor.

Bump up Kemba to 30, 10 minutes for Grant and there’s not much for new guy.

The thing I struggle with is that I think they need a pretty good 3rd option to be a real title contender (filling Hayward’s hole and the drop off from Kemba). I don’t think I want them to use the TPE on a marginal upgrade over Semi. The challenge is, what position does that 3rd option play? Do you trade Pritchard for a real solid PG and have KW just be your scoring spark plug ? Or, do you trade both Theis and TT for a better big and rely on the Williams brothers as your depth?
 

radsoxfan

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I think the disconnect here centers on the definition of "average NBA wing." To me, that's Semi Ojeleye, though that may well be generous in his case.

Anybody who's capable of putting up 28 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists in a game, as Barnes did in a win over Denver the other night, or 24 and 6, as he did in a win over Boston last week, is considerably better than "average," IMO.

Oh, for the C's to have a wing not named Tatum or Brown who averages 17 points and 6 boards and is shooting 42 percent from 3-point range.
If you think Semi is an average NBA wing, then there is definitely a disconnect. Average means you include everyone, guys like Lebron at the top and then the guys at the end of the bench. Semi is much closer to an end of the bench guy.

Just because Barnes is capable of good games doesn't mean as a player overall he is that good. And don't expect him to automatically continue his career highs in 3PT% and True Shooting % he has put up in 20 games (though he may get more open looks here to somewhat balance that out).

Obviously these DARKO charts aren't gospel by any means, but they are advanced stats with easy visual displays including both offense and defense. Semi is very clearly a below average NBA wing. Wiggins is another high pedigree guy who has settled in as an average-is NBA wing.
 

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benhogan

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Kyle Anderson was on my list beginning of year and I think the same question is out there: does Memphis want to move him? You can see why they might, at least once JJJ Clarke are healthy and as they explore more with Bane. He's not a knock-down shooter, but can handle, pass, and defend. To me, he's a budget version of Barnes
Memphis is 9-8 and Kyle is 2nd in minutes played. He's a nice player but obviously a rotational piece for them. So the assets Danny would hand over for a $9.5MM player, that's a small upgrade isn't worth it IMO

I'd export him to Ariza Island
 

128

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If you think Semi is an average NBA wing, then there is definitely a disconnect. Average means you include everyone, guys like Lebron at the top and then the guys at the end of the bench. Semi is much closer to an end of the bench guy.

Just because Barnes is capable of good games doesn't mean as a player overall he is that good. And don't expect him to automatically continue his career highs in 3PT% and True Shooting % he has put up in 20 games (though he may get more open looks here to somewhat balance that out).

Obviously these DARKO charts aren't gospel by any means, but they are advanced stats with easy visual displays including both offense and defense. Semi is very clearly a below average NBA wing. Wiggins is another high pedigree guy who has settled in as an average-is NBA wing.
It's all semantics at this point, but one of the synonyms for "average" is "mediocre," which describes Semi perfectly.
 

Jimbodandy

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If you think Semi is an average NBA wing, then there is definitely a disconnect. Average means you include everyone, guys like Lebron at the top and then the guys at the end of the bench. Semi is much closer to an end of the bench guy.

Just because Barnes is capable of good games doesn't mean as a player overall he is that good. And don't expect him to automatically continue his career highs in 3PT% and True Shooting % he has put up in 20 games (though he may get more open looks here to somewhat balance that out).

Obviously these DARKO charts aren't gospel by any means, but they are advanced stats with easy visual displays including both offense and defense. Semi is very clearly a below average NBA wing. Wiggins is another high pedigree guy who has settled in as an average-is NBA wing.
Fwiw, some of the disconnect is likely the belief that an average to below average wing is more valuable than a plus big or even an above average guard. Wings are like starting pitchers or shortstops around here, and I'm not sure that folks are wrong about that, especially with our team construction.
 

benhogan

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It's all semantics at this point, but one of the synonyms for "average" is "mediocre," which describes Semi perfectly.
Yep, Semi is a role player, spot-up 3pt shooter & defender. 10th/11th in the rotation at $1.5MM.

Since we don't get the ring chasers willing to come on Vet Min that's how Danny has to fill out the deep bench
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Yup. A team that has more cap flexibility could certainly use the TPE to take on a bad salary and pick up some useful assets. That's not really what we're going to do, IMO, unless Kemba can somehow be offloaded (I remain skeptical on this front).
And to this point, we might be one of those teams with more cap flexibility this coming offseason. If we don’t execute any transactions that would get us hardcapped and Wyc is ok blowing through the tax line since we reset in 2020-21, then even with Kemba on the books it’s possible to take on a contract in a salary dump scenario if Ainge thinks it’s worth it to improve the team. That kind of deal would look less like taking on an albatross in exchange for draft picks and more like taking on an overpaid veteran that isn’t worth a rebuilding team continuing to pay but without getting real assets back. But that requires keeping the powder dry until the offseason to preserve enough of the TPE to use then, which is of course frustrating for this years team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's all semantics at this point, but one of the synonyms for "average" is "mediocre," which describes Semi perfectly.
Let’s just say that when you are putting together your post-season rotation.....you don’t want to have Ojeleye penciled in for anything more than emergency rotation minutes or a specialized role for a few possessions in throwing another physical body at someone like Giannis, Bron, etc.

This is why Ainge is looking to upgrade the rotation.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Will Stevens really only play Walker and Pritchard 25 minutes each? He has consistently played KW a lot off ball with another PG on the floor.

Bump up Kemba to 30, 10 minutes for Grant and there’s not much for new guy.

The thing I struggle with is that I think they need a pretty good 3rd option to be a real title contender (filling Hayward’s hole and the drop off from Kemba). I don’t think I want them to use the TPE on a marginal upgrade over Semi. The challenge is, what position does that 3rd option play? Do you trade Pritchard for a real solid PG and have KW just be your scoring spark plug ? Or, do you trade both Theis and TT for a better big and rely on the Williams brothers as your depth?
I'll admit most of my thought are based around the idea of Walker's eventual role reflecting his current ability, which may be a stretch with Stevens.

But yeah, ideally the hypothetical new guy is a very good player to the point that nobody is sitting around thinking "boy we could really use Grant Williams' ability to jump not quite high enough to secure a rebound right about now."

I doubt they have interest in marginal Semi-upgrades, but I guess that depends on one's opinion of Semi. He's sub 40% from 2pt and 33% from 3pt on mostly wide open looks, doesn't rebound or pass, and is usable only in certain defensive matchups, so I tend to think that there are a lot of players you could acquire that would represent a significant upgrade.

I could get behind a big-consolidating move.
 
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128

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Let’s just say that when you are putting together your post-season rotation.....you don’t want to have Ojeleye penciled in for anything more than emergency rotation minutes or a specialized role for a few possessions in throwing another physical body at someone like Giannis, Bron, etc.

This is why Ainge is looking to upgrade the rotation.
One hundred percent.
 

pjheff

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Correct me if I'm wrong (which is quite likely), but in the case of a TPE, doesn't much of the appeal to the other team come from the fact that they are shedding themselves of money on the cap with nothing coming back? Thus it is most appealing to teams who are trying to open up lots of cap space for next year to sign a max FA, OR to teams who are trying to shed dollars in this current year to get under the repeater tax?
Yes. The most likely deal would appear to be a go-nowhere team (like the Bulls) shedding a contract (like Otto Porter) for a minimal asset.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If you think Semi is an average NBA wing, then there is definitely a disconnect. Average means you include everyone, guys like Lebron at the top and then the guys at the end of the bench. Semi is much closer to an end of the bench guy.

Just because Barnes is capable of good games doesn't mean as a player overall he is that good. And don't expect him to automatically continue his career highs in 3PT% and True Shooting % he has put up in 20 games (though he may get more open looks here to somewhat balance that out).

Obviously these DARKO charts aren't gospel by any means, but they are advanced stats with easy visual displays including both offense and defense. Semi is very clearly a below average NBA wing. Wiggins is another high pedigree guy who has settled in as an average-is NBA wing.
You are the one who is wrong. The average NBA player is like Brandon Bass. You do know roster sizes are 17 right? Being the 9th best player on your team is "average." Semi is probably slightly below. He's not that far away from being an average NBA player.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Let’s just say that when you are putting together your post-season rotation.....you don’t want to have Ojeleye penciled in for anything more than emergency rotation minutes or a specialized role for a few possessions in throwing another physical body at someone like Giannis, Bron, etc.

This is why Ainge is looking to upgrade the rotation.
This is also true. The average NBA player probably sits on the bench for most of the playoffs.

Harrison Barnes is well above average.
 

radsoxfan

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You are the one who is wrong. The average NBA player is like Brandon Bass. You do know roster sizes are 17 right? Being the 9th best player on your team is "average." Semi is probably slightly below. He's not that far away from being an average NBA player.
If you want to go out to a 17 man roster and include the borderline roster/G-leaguers then sure LOL, Barnes is definitely above average.

To be clear, average doesn't mean replacement level. Barnes is a solid wing and would be a big upgrade for this team. Best use of the TPE? Not so sure.

In his offensive breakout 20 games, he's currently ranked the 145th best player in the NBA by DARKO. Maybe the 5th best player on a typical team, in a year he is shooting the lights out.
 

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radsoxfan

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Harrison Barnes is an average NBA starter, which is a huge step up from an average NBA player.
I would go as far as to say he is an average NBA player that gets consistent playing time. This year slightly better than that.

But below average it you limit the list of players to only starters.
 

the moops

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Yes. The most likely deal would appear to be a go-nowhere team (like the Bulls) shedding a contract (like Otto Porter) for a minimal asset.
I mentioned this earlier, but couldn't you get an asset from CHI in addition to Porter? CHI has no need for him, they cold shed some payroll, and get a huge TPE
 

ManicCompression

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In his offensive breakout 20 games, he's currently ranked the 145th best player in the NBA by DARKO. Maybe the 5th best player on a typical team, in a year he is shooting the lights out.
There are 500 NBA players so even your pessimistic 145th best player ranking is definitionally above average. It's also important to factor in the position he plays, which is one of the most valuable positions in basketball. "Average" for a center and point guard is a lot lower than "average" for a wing. He would be the third best wing on the Celtics, sure, but he would be the best wing on (top of my head) the Nuggets, the Trailblazers, the Timberwolves, the Cavs, the Mavs, etc. So yeah, I think he's an average starter at a position where it's tough to find average starters.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Harrison Barnes is an average NBA starter, which is a huge step up from an average NBA player.
I would go as far as to say he is an average NBA player that gets consistent playing time. This year slightly better than that.

But below average it you limit the list of players to only starters.
That's a lot different than average NBA player.

I'm not a huge fan but I'd be ok with Barnes. He'd be a huge improvement, I'm just not sure it gets us any closer to a title.

1/3 of the NBA starts. That puts Barnes easily in the top 1/2.
 

Cellar-Door

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Can I mention how dubious I am of DARKO as an all-in-one metric?
Among the reasons:
Kemba is apparently the 17th ranked player by DPM?
Jaylen Brown and Otto Porter are equivalent players.

If you like RAPTOR, which I am less skeptical of, it loves Barnes this year and thinks Kemba can't defend.
 

radsoxfan

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That's a lot different than average NBA player.

I'm not a huge fan but I'd be ok with Barnes. He'd be a huge improvement, I'm just not sure it gets us any closer to a title.

1/3 of the NBA starts. That puts Barnes easily in the top 1/2.
He provides average NBA minutes, I think thats a more accurate statement. I would agree he is better than an average player if we are going out to the far ends of the roster.

Probably in the 4-6 range for a typical team. If he's your 6th man that's great. If he's in your top 3 you're in trouble.

For the Celtics, he is a very clear upgrade, no doubt about it.
 

radsoxfan

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Can I mention how dubious I am of DARKO as an all-in-one metric?
Among the reasons:
Kemba is apparently the 17th ranked player by DPM?
Jaylen Brown and Otto Porter are equivalent players.

If you like RAPTOR, which I am less skeptical of, it loves Barnes this year and thinks Kemba can't defend.
I think Kemba way overvalued by DARKO too, it's not giving weight to his current physical condition. He was good pretty recently in the grand scheme of things.

Anything that only looks at this season in a vacuum is going to be higher on Barnes than his career numbers. I dont see any reason to think that all of a sudden he became a new player. He's just having a hot start.

If you look at Barnes' career by any of the advanced metrics he's just nothing special.
 

radsoxfan

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Can I mention how dubious I am of DARKO as an all-in-one metric?
Among the reasons:
Kemba is apparently the 17th ranked player by DPM?
Jaylen Brown and Otto Porter are equivalent players.

If you like RAPTOR, which I am less skeptical of, it loves Barnes this year and thinks Kemba can't defend.
None of the advanced metrics are as high on Brown as many here are (including myself), his D in particular. Are they all wrong?
 

Cellar-Door

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None of the advanced metrics are as high on Brown as many here are (including myself), his D in particular. Are they all wrong?
DARKO isn't that low on Brown It's more that DARKO is massively high on Otto Porter. That I looked at the top 40 players and quickly found a bunch of just really bad outliers tells me the stat is not a good all-in-one. And makes quoting it to argue that Barnes isn't good particularly notable given he appears to be an outlier here as well.

DARKO is interesting, but it isn't all that reliable and I certainly wouldn't judge a player based on his DARKO score, I wouldn't based on RAPTOR alone or BPM either, but those at least seem to be more consistent and have less wild outlier rankings.