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View: https://twitter.com/JandersonSacBee/status/1359173995413733377
Stop hoarding TP(E) - the what should the Celtics do with the TPE thread
- Thread starter NomarsFool
- Start date
I would be fine with Barnes, I'd hope for better, but he is a decent player and a pretty good fit
Gotta love that a Sacramento reporter, as in, someone with boots on the ground who ostensibly has eyes and ears in the building, put together this piece based entirely on the hearsay speculation of other reporters (national and/or Boston-based) and something Ainge said on the radio.
Yup. I’m not pulling the trigger on him until I know for sure Collins is not possible. But the odds of Ainge landing a player better than Barnes with the TPE is pretty remote, IMO.
I just don’t see how we have the assets to get Collins. TL can’t be all that attractive given Capela and Okungwu, and Nesmith and Romeo aren’t worth much. Maybe if another team’s involved or if we include Marcus.
It wouldn't necessarily stop the C's from getting Collins. I don't think they have the assets to get Collins anyway so it's moot.
Collins is making peanuts.
Yeah, as a former sportswriter, I can say with certainty that I wouldn't have touched that story unless I had sources inside the Kings' organization assuring me it was more than Internet banter.
I agree, the best asset is future unprotected 1sts and with the Jays signed you need to go out 4 years for those to be interesting...and at that point, the discount applied is going to be huge.
I guess I could imagine, in a world where Atlanta has soured on Kris Dunn, that Smart might be seen as a valuable piece of the puzzle for them. But I don't think that's true in this world, and also the Celtics really can't spare him anyway.
Money wise, no. But talent-wise, we only really have the assets to make 1 medium-to-high impact move unless you're trading a guy like Smart who we don't want to trade.
I wonder if 2023 1st rounders may have slightly increased value if that ends up being the "double draft" year. The flip side of course being that you would hypothetically want in that draft if you're looking for cheap talent.
Isn’t Collins generally thought of as a really bad defender? I believe that’s why there was hesitation on Atlanta’s part and why his trade market wasn’t very robust this offseason.
Hes a young player and can definitely improve on that end but I feel like it’s worth mentioning
Who is better that’s available? Barnes is a quality starter who replaces TT or Theis in the starting lineup and eliminates Semi from seeing the floor. This would be a huge get without giving up anything of significant value.
Yes. I am not of the view he's a guy I'd break the bank for, but I get why he's a target---seems expendable, wasn't extended, fit questions going forward. But while he might prove differently he also has some of the traits of a good stats/bad team guy. And he'll likely cost more than Julius Randle if that's the desired profile
Yeah, I think Collins is a pipe dream.
I'm intrigued by Randle.
Thomas Bryant is a possibility (that might make more sense as a TT deal than TPE).
Vucevic would be on my list but I don't think we can afford it.
I'm intrigued by Randle.
Thomas Bryant is a possibility (that might make more sense as a TT deal than TPE).
Vucevic would be on my list but I don't think we can afford it.
Meh, he has all the physical skills to be a good defender in a functional system. The problem is that nobody is focusing on defense or attention to detail on that end of the floor in Atlanta so everyone looks like a bad defender.
He’s getting the max somewhere so I don’t know how we are financially able to take on another long term max.
Bryant tore his ACL, so I think they are unlikely to take a "next year" guy like that unless there's a huge acquisition discount.
Well I think 2 things:
1. I wouldn't bet on SAC just salary dumping him, they'd want some value.
2. I am of the opinion that if you really can't get a true impact player in the TPE at the deadline, you roll most of it into the summer, and make your moves using a small portion of the TPE and the TT contract.
Woof I totally missed that, he only has a year left on his deal after this one, so cross him off the list.
I was going to laugh at the thought of Julius Randle, but I see he is now a 40% three point shooter and an 80% free throw shoooter
I don't think any of these are perfect by any means, but I'd definitely take DARKO over RAPTOR when it comes to predicting the true value of a player for trade purposes.
Top 12 RAPTOR this year:
Embiid
Conley
Kawhi
Jokic
George
Poetl
Lebron
VanVleet
McCollum
Curry
Wood
A.Davis
Also in the top 40:
David Nwaba
Jerami Grant
Bobby Portis
Jordan Clarkson
Derrick Favors
Top 12 DARKO:
Lebron
Kawhi
Harden
Jokic
Embiid
Durant
Lilliard
George
A.Davis
Curry
Tatum
Also in top 40:
Kemba
Brook Lopez
Rachaun Holmes
Danny Green
Otto Porter
I think that the value of the TPE is overstated in this forum and would be even more so for the Bulls who look to be under the cap this summer:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/chicago-bulls/cap/2021/
Brad already stopped the double BIG crap when fully healthy.
Barnes would be replacing Smart in the starting lineup unless you think microwave Kemba is ready to be our Vinnie Johnson
damn that's an expensive bag of popcorn
TT/JB/JT/Barnes/Kemba defense would be special
Best defensive unit would be Smart, Brown, Tatum, Barnes, Theis.
Barnes and Semi maybe equivalent on D, probably matchup dependent. Barnes way better on offense of course.
Literally the 5th post on this thread on November 26th where I listed trade candidates based around using the TPE at the trade deadline this season.
Don't bother sending flowers or candy, just stop misrepresenting my stance.
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Marcus has been somewhat disappointing on D so far this year, hopefully he gets to a higher gear soon.
Not a bad guess. Semi is a touch better using the LEBRON metric but standard caveat on defensive measures applies. I would call it a push for sure.
The delta on offense is big but not as pronounced which is surprising given Ojeleye's reversion to his pretty terrible shooting mean.
Yeah, Semi's D metrics are disappointing as a supposed "3 and D" guy. Both he and Barnes overall are pretty underwhelming on D but decent enough. The major upgrade from Semi to Barnes would pretty much all be related to the offensive side of the ball.
To my eye, Semi seems to have more value than most wings when asked to play big wings 1 on 1 or gets switched onto bigger players (can hold his own in the post given his strength), but he doesn't seem to provide much in the way of team D or against quicker wings. His D value is probably more match-up dependent than some others.
To my eye, Semi seems to have more value than most wings when asked to play big wings 1 on 1 or gets switched onto bigger players (can hold his own in the post given his strength), but he doesn't seem to provide much in the way of team D or against quicker wings. His D value is probably more match-up dependent than some others.
FWIW, I think your assessment of Barnes is pretty spot on. He will definitely add value to the roster but some of the commentary online seems to overstate how much of an impact he might have, especially on offense. Barnes strikes me as exactly the type of player who becomes a lighting rod in Boston (think J.D. Drew where the metrics look great but when you watch in real time, it looks worse than it is or Horford for the early part of his Boston career when even people here referred to him as "Average Al").
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Almost feels like the Myles Turner conversations all over again? Where some of the value is in the player himself—maybe—and some (maybe a lot) of the value is in consolidating lesser players into a single guy that can play 30 mpg and help clarify roles and where the roster needs filling.
Thanks. My initial thought was Jeff Green, someone who has the tools but just isn't as good as it feels like he should be. Looking at the metrics though, Jeff Green is even worse than I thought he was, so Barnes gets the edge there.
As a reminder for these DARKO/LEBRON stats, 0 is "average". Again, average play....not an average player. It means providing average minutes when you look at all the minutes played. Of course the guys at the very end of the bench dont really contribute much to minutes played. Both DARKO and LEBRON have Barnes right around average this year.
LEBRON has a replacement player set to -2.7. Only one player on the Celtics is worse than this level.... our old friend Grant Williams at -2.97. The entire Celtics roster right now is:
Tatum: 3.59
Brown: 1.61
Walker: 0.83
Smart: 0.74
Theis: 0.71
Robert Williams:0.26
Tacko: -0.17
Thompson: -0.20
Pritchard: -0.75
Ojeleye: -1.16
Teague: -1.31
Edwards: -1.37
Waters: -1.39
Nesmith: -1.49
Green: -1.60
GWill: -2.97
Lot's of negative minutes from the Celtics, not really a surprise given how top heavy this roster has looked.
I do like than Ainge goes on and on about how he wants shooting with size, but that he doesn't want bad defenders and Pina comes up with THJ, so Mannix has to trump him with JJ Redick in the battle for who can find the worse defender.
THJ is at least playing well on offense this year, JJ is a terrible defender who also looks shot (not surprising he's 36) on offense too.
How much of Semi’s defensive usage uniqueness is captured by these various metrics? His rotations and instincts look less than desireable by the eyes while he’s often matched up against opponents high scoring wing. Few players possess this type of defensive skill set and was wondering if/how the metrics capture his role.
Good question, I would leave that to the metric experts. He does seem to have poor instincts/rotations but also agree he seems to have a unique 1 on 1 skillset you don't get with every bench wing.
Just spitballing....Maybe we are overrating how good he is 1 on 1? Or maybe the rest of his D is so bad that his good 1 on 1 D can only bring him up to slightly below average? Or maybe he is somehow unfairly hurt because he gets stuck playing on the court against top wings more than you would expect?
I don’t think he’s judged unfairly as his physical ability to matchup with a particular type of player is his only viable skill set aside from being able to knock down a corner 3 (which is almost a requirement nowadays so I can’t even credit him for this). He’s pretty much the identical player today as he was at SMU aside from the spot-up 3.
To me, the intrigue with Barnes is that you’re locking in a safe return with the TPE while getting a solid Jay insurance policy and consolidating roles. In the range of potential use of the TPE, Barnes has to be at least the median case, maybe better. The opportunity cost would be missing out on the summer market but there’s no guarantee anyone obtainable this summer is better so I’d rather lock in the solid return now and get a guy I know can help this year and beyond.
Right now, when a Jay goes down, we don’t have a reliable wing replacement. Romeo and Nesmith are light years from contributing on offense and Kemba’s offensive skills might be evaporating before our very eyes.
The challenge with Barnes is that we’d need to send back more salary to stay under the luxury tax line. That either means a handful of players or a guy like Theis or TT.
End of the day, I’m somewhat risk averse with the TPE due to its expiration date. If I can get a guy like Barnes on a declining deal for 2+ years, I’m taking it.
Semi is a deep bench wing that can come in and give you 10mins of man defense against strong wings (Kawhi, Giannis, Bron, Siakam, etc). He also has a decent, spot-up 3pt shot, a little cold lately. Not sure anyone is expecting more then that from him
The difference being that Barnes fills an actual spot (big wing) of need rather than adding another C to the roster (unnecessary with all the Cs on the roster at the moment). I'm not wild about the move, but mostly because I don't think it puts them in the finals much less over the top. And you still have to surrender assets for the privilege of putting up a better fight in the ECF. However, he certainly helps. Just don't get your hopes up that he's the missing piece that takes them to the promised land.
Yup agreed. Now we just need to acquire another wing so he can return to that role instead of being relied upon for regular rotation minutes.
Exactly. He's been better than expected, but all that shows is how much we needed another wing all along.
This isn’t consistent with standard usage of the term “average” in sports discussion. Usually, when we refer to average performance we don’t mean the median player, we mean a player who is roughly equivalent to the minutes-weighted average performance level. In other words, it matters that Jaylen Brown has played more minutes than Javonte, Carsen, Nesmith, Tacko, and Waters combined. A guy who is roughly the 150th best player out of 500 is probably in the right ballpark of what an average NBA player looks like. It might be a touch high, but it’s the right ballpark.
Barnes is an average player but an average player is quite valuable.
Here is a link to the LEBRON methodology. To answer your question, the metric attempts to normalize what they measure across all players but like any advanced stats, there are limitations and flaws.
To be clear, I don't love this metric and PIPM (its predecessor) had its issues - though I ("we") owe Londonsox apologies for perpetuity for giving him a hard time for referencing it a few years ago - but its freely available and it appears to positively correlate with the other advanced stats out there.
Its better than using counting stats or the TV/phone screen eye test imo.
Agreed 100%. On this Celtics team, an "average" wing is probably worth even more than usual. The wing drop-off from Tatum/Brown to Semi/Javonte/Nesmith/Romeo/Grant is enormous. The low hanging fruit for Danny is finding an average wing to play 25 ish minutes.
Barnes fits the bill, he's just pretty expensive and has 2 more years on his deal after this one.
Agree with these takes as well.
