It has to be the Falcons.
The falcons don't have much running game to speak of, but Luck and those WR behind a very good offensive line? You'd need a good defense to slow them down, and the Jaguars don't have one. The Jags defensive strength is on the interior line, but who really gives a shit without a running game?
The Jags offense have Manning and a helluva WR unit. Ridley could easily be Knowshon Moreno back there for this team. Still, the Jags tackles are putrid. Manning's quick release will keep the chains going, but he's going to end up on the dirt a lot.
If you told me the Falcons won this thing 34-24, I wouldn't be surprised. I won't give them the 10 point spread, but I'll give them a 6.5 point spread.