Surprise Arizona Cardinals
- Thread starter DanoooME
- Start date
I wonder if the Cards are going to be able to continue to win with an offense that still struggles to put up points. Their defense has been phenomenal, but they're going up against some very difficult teams in the second half as well. Seattle twice, and the 49ers on the road. They lucked out by getting the Chiefs away from Arrowhead. Their good start means they probably shouldn't finish worse than 12-4 though, so I guess that bodes well for home-field for much of the playoffs, but they do have questions.
Arizona to me seems a prime candidate for regression, at least on offense.
- Their advanced metrics are not good. They are 22nd in yards/play on offense. and 11th on defense. They were 18th in DVOA last week. They have the lowest offensive play success rate in the league.
- Aaron Schatz at FO pointed out that they have been terrible on first and second downs (ranked 26th and 31st) but great on third/fourth downs (ranked 6th). Converting a lot of 3rd-and-longs is probably unsustainable.
- They have a very boom/bust passing offense. They are 31st in completion % but 4th in yard/completion. That suggests they throw a lot of deep passes, and indeed they are 5th in pass plays of 20+ yards. That sort of offense tends to be very high variance, and they have been riding the hot side of the variance. The Eagles game was an extreme example of this: Palmer was only 20/42, but they hit 80-yard and 75-yard TDs. Eventually they're going to have games where they don't hit the big plays and when that happens they will struggle.
- They have an an unsustainably good turnover rate. Their QBs have thrown only 2 INTs all season, and their INT% is 0.7, both of which are best in the league. They are tied for fewest turnovers. Their INT rate is especially remarkable in light of their down-field passing attack -- their offensive style is the opposite of an Alex Smith making only safe throws to avoid turnovers style. Their INT rate is going to go up.
- For a team that likes to throw deep and has an unheralded offensive line and a non-mobile QB, they have given up surprisingly few sacks. They are 8th in sack rate and 6th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate. They may not be able to sustain that either.
- Despite having a ton of positive variance, they are not blowing teams out. Even with hitting a lot of big plays while avoiding INTs and having the second highest turnover differential in the league, they haven't won any game by more than 11 points. So they don't have a lot of margin for error once the positive variance swing stops.
If there were a way to short football teams, I would be all over Arizona. Even with their hot start, I think they may struggle to get to 11 wins given how hard their schedule is: STL, DET, @SEA, @ATL, KC, @STL, SEA, @SF.
- Their advanced metrics are not good. They are 22nd in yards/play on offense. and 11th on defense. They were 18th in DVOA last week. They have the lowest offensive play success rate in the league.
- Aaron Schatz at FO pointed out that they have been terrible on first and second downs (ranked 26th and 31st) but great on third/fourth downs (ranked 6th). Converting a lot of 3rd-and-longs is probably unsustainable.
- They have a very boom/bust passing offense. They are 31st in completion % but 4th in yard/completion. That suggests they throw a lot of deep passes, and indeed they are 5th in pass plays of 20+ yards. That sort of offense tends to be very high variance, and they have been riding the hot side of the variance. The Eagles game was an extreme example of this: Palmer was only 20/42, but they hit 80-yard and 75-yard TDs. Eventually they're going to have games where they don't hit the big plays and when that happens they will struggle.
- They have an an unsustainably good turnover rate. Their QBs have thrown only 2 INTs all season, and their INT% is 0.7, both of which are best in the league. They are tied for fewest turnovers. Their INT rate is especially remarkable in light of their down-field passing attack -- their offensive style is the opposite of an Alex Smith making only safe throws to avoid turnovers style. Their INT rate is going to go up.
- For a team that likes to throw deep and has an unheralded offensive line and a non-mobile QB, they have given up surprisingly few sacks. They are 8th in sack rate and 6th in FO's Adjusted Sack Rate. They may not be able to sustain that either.
- Despite having a ton of positive variance, they are not blowing teams out. Even with hitting a lot of big plays while avoiding INTs and having the second highest turnover differential in the league, they haven't won any game by more than 11 points. So they don't have a lot of margin for error once the positive variance swing stops.
If there were a way to short football teams, I would be all over Arizona. Even with their hot start, I think they may struggle to get to 11 wins given how hard their schedule is: STL, DET, @SEA, @ATL, KC, @STL, SEA, @SF.
From my perspective having watched their last two games (Phi, @Dal) their low sack rate is largely due to Carson Palmer throwing the ball away if read 1 or 2 is not there. He's getting rid of the ball very quickly. No idea if there are stats around average release time in passing plays but if so I suspect they're near the top of the list.
Although they won both games I came away pretty unimpressed with them. Philly largely shut them down offensively save those two long plays. I appreciate that you can't take plays away from them but the 80 TD Fitz TD had an uncalled pick and the 75 TD one was a complete brain fart on the Philly D in 3rd down late in the game. Even after that Philly drive right down the field and almost took it at the end. Tip of the cap on the 7-1 record, but I'm not really a believer yet.
Although they won both games I came away pretty unimpressed with them. Philly largely shut them down offensively save those two long plays. I appreciate that you can't take plays away from them but the 80 TD Fitz TD had an uncalled pick and the 75 TD one was a complete brain fart on the Philly D in 3rd down late in the game. Even after that Philly drive right down the field and almost took it at the end. Tip of the cap on the 7-1 record, but I'm not really a believer yet.
Although a bit far away, they are also slated for (functional) home field advantage for the SB (if they get there). If they hold that #1 slot they will travel only two times after November 30th. This can't hurt.
I haven't seen all their games but they look like a classic solid team that lets the other team lose by being safe and playing good D. Not sure it's a team I'd be afraid of in the playoffs.
The Eagles certainly lost as much as the Cards won, too many turnovers and the Eagles D gave up two huge blown plays, and still at home the Eagles had a pretty good shot to steal it late.
The Cowboys game was defined as much by Weeden as anything. Load the box stop the run and dare Weeden to throw.
I think they are a good team, and will very rarely be blown out and they force the other team to play good football to win. You aren't going to get a gimme. But the wins without Palmer speak to some grit and talent and it's a tough division and schedule. They're just one of those not scary teams that keep winning.
The Eagles certainly lost as much as the Cards won, too many turnovers and the Eagles D gave up two huge blown plays, and still at home the Eagles had a pretty good shot to steal it late.
The Cowboys game was defined as much by Weeden as anything. Load the box stop the run and dare Weeden to throw.
I think they are a good team, and will very rarely be blown out and they force the other team to play good football to win. You aren't going to get a gimme. But the wins without Palmer speak to some grit and talent and it's a tough division and schedule. They're just one of those not scary teams that keep winning.