Survivor Week 1 - Nominations

ivanvamp · Sep 4, 2014

Mine is Pittsburgh at home over Cleveland.

Morgan's Magic Snowplow · Sep 4, 2014

You basically want to pick home teams with big point spreads and, to the extent possible, avoid burning the best teams. That leaves:

Eagles (-10.5) over Jags
Bears (-7) over Bills
Steelers (-6.5) over Browns
Jets (-5.5) over Raiders

Then its really a question of how much do you want to spread risk around - ie, how many different games to pick among the five entries. I think you probably at least want to pick the first three games and maybe the fourth. This might be the best time to take the Jets all season.

We'd be crazy to bet on the Rams (-3.5) or the Chiefs (-3).

Stitch01 · Sep 4, 2014

Chicago over Buffalo

Buffalo Head · Sep 4, 2014

My top 3 would be

1. Bears
2. Eagles
3. Jets

I know the Browns are bad, but division games always make me nervous, which is why I shied away from the Steelers.

Old Fart Tree · Sep 4, 2014

I'm going Iggles in my survivor pool.

Hambone · Sep 4, 2014

I think Buffalo Head has it, but will add Lions over Giants as an option

Oppo · Sep 4, 2014

I'm going Eagles over Jags

ElcaballitoMVP · Sep 4, 2014

Eagles

You don't want to use them in weeks 2-4, 6-8, 11, 13-17 due to tough matchups or being on the road.

Only other games I would consider them: week 5 vs STL, week 9 @ ARI, week 10 Mon night vs CAR, week 12 vs TEN but I think they'll be the most heavily favored this week.

Ed Hillel · Sep 4, 2014

Eagles.

dynomite · Sep 4, 2014

I think the plan above (2 picks for Eagles, spread out the rest) makes sense.

That said, I'm seriously tempted to take the Jets.

The Raiders 1) are starting a rookie QB, and 2) went 1-7 on the road last year, with their only win coming against the 2-14 Texans. I know the Jets have their own set of issues, but this doesn't feel like the sort of game they lose (they went 6-2 at home last year), and it's not like we're ever using the Jets again this year.

Buffalo Head · Sep 4, 2014

I could live with Eagles, Eagles, Bears, Jets, Steelers over five entries.

weeba · Sep 4, 2014

Shouldn't we have a separate thread (or email) for those that paid into the pool, vs a general "all SOSH" thread?

johnmd20 · Sep 4, 2014

I'm taking the Eagles. The problem is that 65% of the entries will take the Eagles. Picking the Bears and seeing the Eagles lose would be humongous. But I don't think the Eagles will lose and I just want to advance.

mauf · Sep 4, 2014

What about Denver? Their odds of winning are as good as anyone besides Philly, and no one is taking them.

PaulinMyrBch · Sep 4, 2014

Didn't Pittsburgh fuck a bunch of people in Week 1 last year? Pretty sure I got hosed picking them in the opener last year.

Edit: They lost and were a 7 pt favorite.

PaulinMyrBch · Sep 4, 2014

Here are the odds for this week.

Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Seattle Seahawks, 46
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Atlanta Falcons, 51.5
Minnesota Vikings (+4) at St. Louis Rams, 44
Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers, 40.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+10) at Philadelphia Eagles, 53
Oakland Raiders (+5.5) at New York Jets, 40
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Baltimore Ravens, 43
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Chicago Bears, 47
Washington Redskins (+3) at Houston Texans, 45.5
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs, 43.5
New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins, 47
Carolina Panthers (+1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 39.5
San Francisco 49ers (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys, 51
Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) at Denver Broncos, 55.5
New York Giants (+5) at Detroit Lions, 47
San Diego Chargers (+3) at Arizona Cardinals, 45

mauf · Sep 4, 2014

Current money lines:

Philly -650
Denver -360
Chicago -320
Pittsburgh -300
NYJ -250
Detroit -245

Zoidberg · Sep 4, 2014

I'd probably split up 5 picks along the lines:

Eagles
Eagles
Bears
Bears
Pitt

Mostly because I can't bring myself to pick the Jets to win. I tend to shy away from teams that could be mediocre until knowing more about them later in the season. While that means burning teams that are good early on, it has been good in terms of deeper runs.

Edit: that being said, I trust the folks here know what they're doing more than I.

Buffalo Head · Sep 4, 2014

maufman said:
What about Denver? Their odds of winning are as good as anyone besides Philly, and no one is taking them.

Because they're playing a team that has the ability to put a great game together and beat them, unlike an inept Jags/Bills/Raiders/Browns squad that shouldn't be able to beat even a mediocre opponent.

In other words, don't pick against a good-to-great QB like Luck when EJ Manuel and Chad Henne are on the field somewhere else.

PaulinMyrBch · Sep 4, 2014

I like Philly, then Chicago. I don't trust Denver.

j44thor · Sep 4, 2014

I like the Lions a lot this week. NYG are in shambles on O and D line and they aren't going to be able to run against the Lions nor do they have a prayer of containing a healthy megatron and Golden Tate. I expect DET to win by at least 14.

mauf · Sep 4, 2014

Buffalo Head said:
Because they're playing a team that has the ability to put a great game together and beat them, unlike an inept Jags/Bills/Raiders/Browns squad that shouldn't be able to beat even a mediocre opponent.

In other words, don't pick against a good-to-great QB like Luck when EJ Manuel and Chad Henne are on the field somewhere else.

I guess we have different philosophies. There are teams I like a little more or less than the conventional wisdom does, but my going-in assumption is that the lines are correct. To the extent having a good QB is important, it's reflected in the line.

Now, if you think that a given QB is worse than the conventional wisdom supposes, that's a different story. In this case, however, I'm not sure it's possible for Manuel to be much worse than his rep.

Tony C · Sep 7, 2014

j44thor said:
I like the Lions a lot this week. NYG are in shambles on O and D line and they aren't going to be able to run against the Lions nor do they have a prayer of containing a healthy megatron and Golden Tate. I expect DET to win by at least 14.

Me too. I'm all in on the Lions this year in general, and against the Giants....yep, I expect a blow out.

j44thor · Sep 7, 2014

Really surprised to see so much love for a CHI team that couldn't stop the run at all last year going up against one of the heaviest run offenses in the NFL, only behind PHI I believe. BUF can get after the QB and Cutler is prone to mistakes against teams that can rush the passer.

Not suggesting CHI will likely lose but I wouldn't be betting on them if I was in Vegas this week. PHI and DET seem like much safer picks.

Tony C · Sep 7, 2014

I agree. I like Trestman a lot, and those WRs are scary good, but Cutler and that D makes Chicago hard to love.

maufman said:
Current money lines:

Philly -650
Denver -360
Chicago -320
Pittsburgh -300
NYJ -250
Detroit -245

Denver and Detroit are the only teams here that I think are worth a ton of confidence. An overrated Colts team going into Denver against a healthy (healthier, I should say -- compared to last year) Broncos team with Manning in good weather.....man that has blow-out written all over it.

Survivor Week 1 - Nominations

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