Survivor: Week 2

TheDeuce222

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I am definitely leaning New Orleans over Tampa at the Dome. Desperate team, I don't think they're as bad on offense as they've looked, and Captain Obvious alert, they are way, way better at home.  Tampa did look better and Mike Glennon and a healthy Doug Martin offers them a much better chance than a shaky McCown and a fumbling Rainey.  Nevertheless, their o line is questionable at best, and their secondary can obviously be torched, which is just what the Dr. ordered for the Saints one would think.  
 
I have used Philly, Green Bay, New England and San Diego to this point.  Eagles at home over the Rams would be attractive if you did not use Philly in Week 1.  Steelers at Jaguars seems like a stay away because the Steelers looked so shaky and Bortles actually looked somewhat frisky on the road.  Seattle at Washington is somewhat enticing, but there is no way I'm playing Seattle on the road this early.  If you can make it to Week 9, home against the Raiders is about as tasty as it gets.  
 

mauf

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Early money lines:

Saints (TB +559),
Packers (MIN +444)
Seahawks (WAS +309)
Broncos (ARI +299)
Chargers (NYJ +289)
Lions (BUF +279)
Eagles (STL +269)
Steelers (JAX +257)

Most people will have used GB and DEN, and there will be opportunities to use Seattle at home, so this might be a good week to follow the mob and take NO.

I would avoid PIT like the plague.

Edit: 49ers at home vs the Chiefs is also a solid pick. I forgot about them because the line on that game hasn't opened (presumably for the obvious reason).
 

mauf

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Survivorgrid.com P% for this week:
 
Saints 30%
Packers 18%
Lions 12%
Seahawks 10%
Steelers 9%
Eagles 9%
 
The Saints aren't as heavy a consensus pick as I expected, and there's no reason to save them -- they don't figure to be favored by more than a touchdown again.
 

mauf

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
DET over BUF with Kyle Orton starting seems to be the way to go.
The Bills would be 3-1 with minimally competent QB play -- Manuel cost them last week's game @HOU, which is presumably what got him benched. They will probably lose to Detroit, but I wouldn't consider them a safe pick.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's hard to trust Detroit, but that defensive line gives them a stability that they haven't had in the past.

Seattle on the road? Why not.

San Diego against a quarterback who can't exploit their problems? That would be my pick this week. Seattle second.

Carolina, Pittsburgh and Detroit are also possibilities. It seems like one of those weeks where there are many good choices.
 

Oppo

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Week 5 options
Den @ NYJ
SF @ StL (Mon)
SD @ Oak
Arz vs Was

I'm going Denver
 

Deathofthebambino

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I've already used Denver, but I'm planning to probably use them in the league where you can use the same team multiple times.  In the pool that I already used them, I'm leaning towards Tennessee at home against Jacksonville, but if you're like me and just despise taking road teams, this is a fairly tough week. Arizona is probably my other choice.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Arizona against the short-week team if you have to take a home team, but you have to check the quarterback situation carefully. This really is a road-team week. San Diego, Denver, San Francisco, Baltimore, in that order.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I'm all over the map this week and struggling to commit.  As I mentioned, I have two different pools.  One in which you can only take a team once during the season, and I've used New England, Philly, Green Bay, San Diego and New Orleans.  I was actually pretty shocked to find out I hadn't taken Denver yet.  Denver is on the road at the Jets, and I am just so averse to using a road team that it's killing me, but I think it's the best choice I have, by far.  It also doesn't help that the Jets knocked me out last year.  I'm thinking I have to go that way. However, part of me is thinking I should use Denver in the league that I can use the same team multiple times, and use someone else in this league to at least give myself a chance of surviving if Denver somehow gets beat.  I was all about just taking Tennessee at home against Jacksonville, but that whole QB situation scares me.  I feel like either team could win the game if either of their QB's somehow figures it out.
 
I've also been staring at that Arizona game at home against the Redskins.  But again, QB's.
 
I would be all over Cinci if it weren't for AJ Green's injury. Dalton without AJ Green is a very different player, and I feel  like that Carolina defense could easily show up and cause havoc for the Bengals.
 
I agree that this is a road team weak, but man, I hate it.  I really do like San Diego at Oakland.  Chem, what do you think about me going Denver in the league I haven't used them, and San Diego in the other to switch it up?  Or just go Denver in both?
 

SinesPointToYes

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I would be taking Denver if I had the option. I'm as adverse to taking a road team as anyone, but that's certainly the most lopsided matchup.

Since I can't take Denver, I've been mulling my options as well... Everytime I think I make a decision I flip flop. If Palmer was healthy, I would take Arizona, but he is not. AJ green out means I won't be picking Cinci. And I would be kicking myself so hard if I took the titans and they lost while I still had good teams still on the board, no need to pick bad teams until later in the season.

I'm actually leaning towards taking Seattle this week. Hard to pick against them at home. And while the cowboys aren't a bad team, I think they are worse than their record. The only strong team they have faced has been SF, and they lost.

Am I crazy to take Seattle?
 

Oppo

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I'm taking Denver without hesitation.
If I wasn't able to pick Denver, I'd go San Diego then San Fran
 

mauf

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If you believe the conventional wisdom (as expressed in Vegas odds), Denver is the safest pick on the board. I can't wrap my head around that when you have the option of taking SEA at home, or one of the league's best teams against perhaps its worst (SD over OAK), but what do I know?

One of those three big favorites will probably lose. Choose wisely.

If you have burned all three of those, I think you have to take CIN over CAR and hope for the best.
 

dynomite

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I'm in the same boat as many of you, and the home/road thing is bothering me.  I haven't used either Denver or Seattle, and I'm planning to do so the following two weeks.  The question is, do I take both of them at home against solid teams or both of them on the road against bad teams?
 
Option 1: 
Week 6: DEN (@ NYJ)
Week 7: SEA (@ STL)
 
Option 2:
Week 6: SEA (vs. DAL)
Week 7: DEN (vs. SF)
 
Thoughts?  I'm leaning toward taking them both on the road, which is super dangerous.  Meh.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Well, I went Denver and San Diego in my two leagues, and while Denver ended up winning by 14, it was much closer than that, and obviously, just dodged a huge bullet with San Diego.  If nothing else, this really establishes my personal feeling of never going with a road team.  Anything can happen in the NFL, but betting on teams on the road is a fool's errand unless you have to do it.  I was never taking Cinci when AJ Green got hurt, and unlike many, I think Dallas is for real, so Seattle never crossed my mind (in fact, I bet on Dallas today outright).  One of my favorite parts of the week is going into my pools after I survive and rooting for teams to lose.  We lost a bunch of folks with Cincy already, and Dallas could wipe out about 20% of my pools if they hang on against Seattle. 
 
My other choices, Arizona and Tennessee both survived (well, Arizona is about to), so I'm kind of kicking myself for not using one of them this week, but I'm happy to be moving on.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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A ten-point favorite wins close to 75% of the time. That increases to 95% if you get to 14 points or higher. You just don't get that many "clean" games - 14 points, home team, no key injuries... That 10-to-14 range is where you win or lose in Survivor, and there's no way around that. Yes, the road games scare me, too, but in weeks like this, I think you have to go that route.
 

Deathofthebambino

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In one pool (the one where you can only pick a team once), we started with 2,717 entries.  After today, there are 447 survivors with 51 left who have San Fran tomorrow night.  The pot is over $270,000 in this pool.
 
In my other pool, you can select any team at any time, we started with 522 entries, and there are currently only 163 that haven't made an incorrect  pick (you get 3 strikes before you are out in this pool, but you drop into the loss brackets and fight for less prize money as you go).  I actually think this format is really cool, as it keeps people involved for much, much longer.  I believe if you finish with zero losses, you win 65% of the prize money, 20% goes to the one loss bracket, and 10% to the two loss bracket and then there is a playoff pool for the remaining 5%.  So, even if you get eliminated during the regular season, you still have a shot to make something in the playoffs.  There is a total of $104,400 up for grabs in this one.
 

tims4wins

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dynomite said:
Would you go with the Bills instead of the Seahawks (@STL)?
 
Yeah probably. Seattle has home games left against Oakland (week 9) and St. Louis (week 17). If you are playing to make it the whole way, as opposed to just maximizing your chances each individual week, that would be REALLY nice to have in your pocket in week 17. And it is looking like Seattle will need that game given the competition in the NFC. They aren't going to cruise to the one seed.
 

tims4wins

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If you want another non-traditional pick you might go with Cleveland, but Jax is bound to win a game at some point and that game screams let down / trap after the Browns killed Pittsburgh.
 
Arizona could be a good pick even though it is on the road (@ Oakland) - that is a solid football team.
 

mauf

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No love for the Pats over the Jets at Gillette on Thursday night? They're easily the biggest favorite this week, though I realized many folks burned the Pats when they played OAK in Week 3.

If you're not taking NE for some reason, then DEN, GB, BAL, SEA, DAL, and WAS are all about equally risky. Not sure why you'd pick SEA from among those options -- they will easily be the most popular pick among that bunch, and they figure to be double-digit favorites in Weeks 9 and 10.
 

tims4wins

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I'd lean against the Pats due to the short week against Rex, but one thing in favor of taking the Pats is their remaining schedule. The only two other viable home games that you'd take them are against Miami and Buffalo. Miami already beat them, and Buffalo is in week 17 when it is possible (albeit unlikely) the Pats won't have anything to play for.
 

TheDeuce222

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I am one of 14 entries remaining in a 75 person pool, with about 1500 on the line.  
 
I think the four realistic remaining team options for me this week are Arizona at Oakland, Seattle at St. Louis, Cleveland at Jacksonville, and Buffalo at home against Minnesota.  I am leaning Buffalo at home right now.  
 
I agree with Maufman that Seattle is not a value-maximizing pick this week - a ton of people are sure to have them, and especially if Okung is out, I think that Seattle could have real trouble with the Rams' defensive line.  On paper, St. Louis seems very blah because they are basically devoid of talented skill position players, but they are strong in the trenches, and have played close games against upper-echelon teams three weeks in a row now since Davis took over.
 
Taking Arizona was my first instinct, but Oakland has me a bit scared away by that performance this past week against San Diego.  Derek Carr can fling it a little bit, and I don't know how great I would feel about an iffy Carson Palmer trying to beat his old team on the road in a raucous environment in the fourth quarter.  
 
Cleveland at Jacksonville is very interesting, and I really like this Browns team.  That said, I would much, much rather have the Browns at home, and I do think Jacksonville will win a game or two shortly here - they have been significantly better the past two weeks.  They could have easily won this past week if they converted a 55-yard FG at the end.
 
So I keep coming back to Buffalo, the only home team of the bunch, against Minnesota.  Buffalo's secondary got burned against the Patriots, but their run D is solid, and Teddy Bridgewater is not yet Tom Brady.  Minnesota's defense does not scare anyone, and their team as a whole has looked terrible for two weeks.  But in Week 4, they beat Atlanta 41-28.  
 
Does anyone feel strongly that Cleveland or Arizona on the road against the winless teams is the better play than Buff?
 

dynomite

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maufman said:
No love for the Pats over the Jets at Gillette on Thursday night? They're easily the biggest favorite this week, though I realized many folks burned the Pats when they played OAK in Week 3.

If you're not taking NE for some reason, then DEN, GB, BAL, SEA, DAL, and WAS are all about equally risky. Not sure why you'd pick SEA from among those options -- they will easily be the most popular pick among that bunch, and they figure to be double-digit favorites in Weeks 9 and 10.
I'm not a big fan of saving teams in survivor pools, and mine is down to 3 people. If you're trying to win a huge pool, sure, maybe the risky picks make sense. But in mine it doesn't feel necessary.

Take a team like BAL. They're good, and ATL doesn't win outside. Still, FootballOutsiders has the Ravens ranked 4th and the Falcons ranked 6th (not counting this week). That's too close for comfort in my opinion, especially when I can take the 2nd ranked team (SEA) against the 28th (STL).

TheDeuce222 said:
Does anyone feel strongly that Cleveland or Arizona on the road against the winless teams is the better play than Buff?
BUF is probably my #2 pick this week, and I'm considering rolling with them. That defense is for real, and Orton is a competent QB. That said, your fears about the Vikings are well placed, I think. They absolutely crushed the Rams and Falcons, and have more talent on defense than teams like the Raiders and Jaguars, in my opinion.
 

mauf

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dynomite said:
I'm not a big fan of saving teams in survivor pools, and mine is down to 3 people. If you're trying to win a huge pool, sure, maybe the risky picks make sense. But in mine it doesn't feel necessary.

 
 
If you're down to 3 teams, the calculus is simple -- pick the team you think is safest. I don't think SEA is materially safer than any of the other teams I listed, but I can understand why you might feel otherwise.
 
 
TheDeuce222 said:
  
 
Does anyone feel strongly that Cleveland or Arizona on the road against the winless teams is the better play than Buff?
 
No, but I'm not sure any of those three are the right pick.
 
Atlanta (+260), St. Louis (+250), the Giants (+230), and even Tennessee (+210) are all longer shots than Minny (+200), Jacksonville (+200) and Oakland (+160). Among those options, only SEA over STL is likely to get enough heavy enough play to make it worth considering avoiding the pick. Coincidentally, SEA is the only team in that group I'd worry about saving too -- you're unlikely to be kicking yourself later for burning BAL or DAL.
 
Like you, I think the Bills will win, but I don't think enough of my own prognosticating abilities to play that kind of a hunch.
 

dynomite

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maufman said:
If you're down to 3 teams, the calculus is simple -- pick the team you think is safest. I don't think SEA is materially safer than any of the other teams I listed, but I can understand why you might feel otherwise....
Like you, I think the Bills will win, but I don't think enough of my own prognosticating abilities to play that kind of a hunch.
All reasonable opinions.

As far as SEA, the lines are still moving but according to most Vegas lines SEA is the 2nd heaviest favorite of the week at +7.5 (behind NE at +10, who I've already used). (Note that some sites have SEA as +6.5 with BAL and GB at +7, so it might be more accurate to say those 3 are roughly even in terms of Vegas odds)
 

Deathofthebambino

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You guys always surprise me with your choices each week.  I do like Buffalo, and thought long and hard about taking them in the league where I have to switch it up every week, but rookie QB's scare the shit out of me, particularly rookie QB's in their first 4-5 games.  Seems like the NFL takes a bit of time to "figure" guys out, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Vikings and Bridgewater came to Buffalo and beat them.  That said, they are probably my number 2 pick. 
 
Right now, in the league where I can take anyone (even if I've already used them), I'm on the Patriots.  I fucking hate doing it, but I just don't think they'll lose this one.  They are playing as good as they have this season, and the Jets are playing about as bad as they have all year.  If the Pats lose, I'll be absolutely crushed in a number of ways, but I just feel like it's an option I can't pass up.  Think about it this way.  If you had to bet on the underdog in any game this week, getting zero points, which team would you be least likely to take?  For me, it's the Jets.  Thus, I'm on the Pats.
 
The league where I've already used the Pats, GB, NO, etc.  I have three teams available that I really like.  Buffalo, Dallas and Seattle.  Seattle is on the road, so they are out.  And I'm going to avoid Buffalo for reasons stated above.  I think the Giants are a bad football team.  Like really bad.  I don't think Sunday night was a fluke.  Literally, the only thing that worries me is that they seem to always play well in Dallas, but this is not the same old Dallas team, IMO.  That team is fighting right now, and if they win this game, they are in an incredible position.  I just don't see them letting up enough to blow it this week, and I really, really think Vegas and the betting public continue to not give Dallas it's due.  I bet Dallas to win outright last week, at almost +300.  I love them this week.  I should probably take them in both pools, but at this point in the season, if the option is there, I like switching it up and hoping I don't lose both games and can at least move forward in one league.
 

Fo' Rheal

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Any thoughts on the Bears hosting the Dolphins? I don't like SEA on the road, DAL, BAL and BUF all make me nervous for the same reasons noted above.
 

mauf

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Fo' Rheal said:
Any thoughts on the Bears hosting the Dolphins? I don't like SEA on the road, DAL, BAL and BUF all make me nervous for the same reasons noted above.
Miami +155 on Vegas Insider.

CHI 16th in DVOA, MIA 17th.

There isn't a comfortable game this week -- NE is the only massive favorite, and Thursday night games are notoriously unpredictable.

I would suggest there are more comfortable picks than CHI, though -- if the game were in Miami, the Dolphins would be favored.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I hadn't seen the weather report until just now.  Didn't realize it might be pouring on Thursday night, which IMO, hurts the Pats a bit.  Their biggest advantage in that game is their passing game against the Jets passing defense, IMO, so if it comes down to a pound it out on the ground, I think the Jets keep it close, especially with the Ridley injury.  If the rain comes in, I'll likely switch my pick to Dallas in the pool where I can take anyone, and then go to Buffalo or Seattle in my "one time pick only" pool.
 

TheDeuce222

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Thanks for all the responses.  I'm definitely rethinking a bit.  I think DOTB is right that at this relatively late stage with not that many teams left, it is not worth trying to "save" teams with only 14 entrants left - you just gotta go safe.  I may end up going Seattle after all.  Yes, they looked horrible this past week, and St. Louis is a road game, but they really need the W this wknd, and I think they will feed Marshawn and establish the tempo of the game early.  
 

glennhoffmania

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TheDeuce222 said:
I am one of 14 entries remaining in a 75 person pool, with about 1500 on the line.  
 
I think the four realistic remaining team options for me this week are Arizona at Oakland, Seattle at St. Louis, Cleveland at Jacksonville, and Buffalo at home against Minnesota.  I am leaning Buffalo at home right now.  
 
I agree with Maufman that Seattle is not a value-maximizing pick this week - a ton of people are sure to have them, and especially if Okung is out, I think that Seattle could have real trouble with the Rams' defensive line.  On paper, St. Louis seems very blah because they are basically devoid of talented skill position players, but they are strong in the trenches, and have played close games against upper-echelon teams three weeks in a row now since Davis took over.
 
 
The flaw there is that the alternatives for using Seattle aren't being considered.  Looking at their schedule, the only two games they have left that should be viewed as a better bet are week 9 vs. Oakland and week 17 vs. St. Louis.  Week 9 you also have Cincy hosting Jax and SF hosting the Rams.  I'd never hold a team back until week 17 since there's a good chance they'll have nothing to play for, but regardless you also have Jax at Houston, NYJ at Miami, and Oakland at Denver (if you still have Denver available for some reason). 
 
So given all that, if you think Seattle is the best bet this week I don't see much value in holding them back for another week given the other options.
 

mauf

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glennhoffmania said:
 
The flaw there is that the alternatives for using Seattle aren't being considered.  Looking at their schedule, the only two games they have left that should be viewed as a better bet are week 9 vs. Oakland and week 17 vs. St. Louis.  Week 9 you also have Cincy hosting Jax and SF hosting the Rams.  I'd never hold a team back until week 17 since there's a good chance they'll have nothing to play for, but regardless you also have Jax at Houston, NYJ at Miami, and Oakland at Denver (if you still have Denver available for some reason). 
 
So given all that, if you think Seattle is the best bet this week I don't see much value in holding them back for another week given the other options.
SEA over NYG will probably be the safest bet on the board in Week 10, especially if you think the Rams (who play @ARI that week) are gradually getting themselves unfucked.

If you've burned NE and GB (or don't like those picks), I'd probably go with BAL, who I think are no more likely to lose this week than SEA.
 

dynomite

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maufman said:
SEA over NYG will probably be the safest bet on the board in Week 10, especially if you think the Rams (who play @ARI that week) are gradually getting themselves unfucked.
1) Maybe the data is against me, but I just don't think it's worth playing for Week 10 at this point. Too many upsets week-to-week in the NFL.

2) And in terms of Week 10, depending upon how the Seahawks and Giants play over the next two weeks I could see BAL (vs. TEN) as just as safe a bet.

So for the next few weeks I'm going:
This week: SEA (@ STL)
Week 8: DAL (vs. WAS)
Week 9: CIN (vs. JAX)
Week 10: BAL (vs. TEN)
 

glennhoffmania

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dynomite said:
1) Maybe the data is against me, but I just don't think it's worth playing for Week 10 at this point. Too many upsets week-to-week in the NFL.

2) And in terms of Week 10, depending upon how the Seahawks and Giants play over the next two weeks I could see BAL (vs. TEN) as just as safe a bet.

So for the next few weeks I'm going:
This week: SEA (@ STL)
Week 8: DAL (vs. WAS)
Week 9: CIN (vs. JAX)
Week 10: BAL (vs. TEN)
 
Yeah I agree.  Until last week people were saying that the Giants were getting themselves unfucked.  The Rams aren't a bad team but I don't see any reason to think they'll be a tougher matchup for Seattle than the Giants will be a month from now.  About a month ago people were saying that Dallas had a potentially historically bad defense and now they look like one of the best teams in the league.  There are very few knowns right now, and I don't think that Kyle Orton over Minnesota is one of them.
 

mauf

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glennhoffmania said:
 
Yeah I agree.  Until last week people were saying that the Giants were getting themselves unfucked.  The Rams aren't a bad team but I don't see any reason to think they'll be a tougher matchup for Seattle than the Giants will be a month from now.  About a month ago people were saying that Dallas had a potentially historically bad defense and now they look like one of the best teams in the league.  There are very few knowns right now, and I don't think that Kyle Orton over Minnesota is one of them.
Neither do I, but I was touting BAL over ATL. The Ravens could lose that one, but I don't think it's more likely than a SEA road loss @STL. Given the roughly equal odds, I'd take the less popular pick, positioning myself to benefit from a STL upset, while also saving SEA for later use.

You don't have to see the odds much differently than me, however, to reach the opposite conclusion.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Could those of you wiser than I - read: any and all of you - tell me if and why you would consider Cleveland a good/bad/risky pick this week? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.
 

tims4wins

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The risk I see with Cleveland is let down game after a big emotional win over their rival. Jacksonville has been somewhat competitive as well. I don't think Cleveland is the best pick this week, but it's certainly defendable.
 

dynomite

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
Could those of you wiser than I - read: any and all of you - tell me if and why you would consider Cleveland a good/bad/risky pick this week? Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.
 
By advanced statistics CLE is a good pick.  They're 9th in DVOA, and playing a team that's 31st in DVOA (and probably isn't going to win more than 3 or 4 games this year).
 
That said, they're not the best pick for a number of reasons.  For one, the Browns are 29th in defensive DVOA, and had given up 23+ points in every game this season until they beat up the Steelers.  For another, the Browns have been historically inconsistent on the road (they went down by 24 points in Week 1 @ PIT and by 25 points in Week 5 @ TEN before roaring back in both games, setting a record for biggest road comeback ever in the 2nd).
 
Long story short, I agree with tims (TYMS) above: it's a risky but justifiable pick.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Thankfully, I didn't switch out the Patriots pick prior to the game because I had heard the rain was going to let up.  It was definitely not fun sweating through it, but I'm happy to be moving on to week 8 already in one pool.  It appears about 70 of the 166 remaining players took the Pats, so time to root for some upsets on Sunday. 
 
In my other pool, 111 of the remaining 498 had the Pats tonight and are moving on.  I'm hoping to do the same with Dallas on Sunday.