Swihart's second rodeo

DJnVa

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Got it. I just wanted to make sure we were defining who they are based on their career OPS+ numbers for 1) a guy who has 511 MLB PA spread over 4 years, the majority of which came 3 years ago as a 23yo catcher and 2) a guy who has 1 full season of PA (also his best) out of 4 for a grand total of 948 PA, has seen his OPS+ fluctuate pretty dramatically over those 4 (73, 55, 91, 46), and missed a full year in there due to TJS. Without going and refreshing myself, I believe it takes OPS around 500 PA to begin to stabilize; spreading them over 4 or 5 years of development, injury, and positional change would, I believe, complicate that further.
There's no doubt about that. But the fact it's taking 4 years of development to get those 500 PAs means something too. I'm not saying it's fair, but at some point the waiting has to stop. Perhaps Swihart is just fragile--in the professional athlete sense of the word, or unlucky, or whatever.
 

Cesar Crespo

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There's no doubt about that. But the fact it's taking 4 years of development to get those 500 PAs means something too. I'm not saying it's fair, but at some point the waiting has to stop. Perhaps Swihart is just fragile--in the professional athlete sense of the word, or unlucky, or whatever.
It also ignores 459 putrid minor league PA in the same time frame. Makes him look less fragile though. It really comes down to hitting for a high enough average.
 

In my lifetime

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It also ignores 459 putrid minor league PA in the same time frame. Makes him look less fragile though. It really comes down to hitting for a high enough average.
No, but those injuries wouldn't have happened if he was never put in the outfield to try to expand his usefulness to the organization 4 years ago. Instead he should have been kept at the much safer position of catcher where he would have gone injury-free.
 

Plympton91

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No, but those injuries wouldn't have happened if he was never put in the outfield to try to expand his usefulness to the organization 4 years ago. Instead he should have been kept at the much safer position of catcher where he would have gone injury-free.
Sarcasm noted, but the most severe of those injuries was directly related to an inexperienced outfielder crashing into a wall. Maybe if he were catching that day he would have had his hand shattered by a foul tip, but most likely not.

John Farrell was looking for any excuse to install noodle bar Vazquez as the starting catcher, and he got it when Swihart dropped a pipup 6 games into the season. This all comes back to Farrell’s inability to judge talent.
 

joe dokes

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Sarcasm noted, but the most severe of those injuries was directly related to an inexperienced outfielder crashing into a wall. Maybe if he were catching that day he would have had his hand shattered by a foul tip, but most likely not.

John Farrell was looking for any excuse to install noodle bar Vazquez as the starting catcher, and he got it when Swihart dropped a pipup 6 games into the season. This all comes back to Farrell’s inability to judge talent.
Farrell's not the only one who thought Vazquez was *that* good. The current GM signed him for 3 more years.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No, but those injuries wouldn't have happened if he was never put in the outfield to try to expand his usefulness to the organization 4 years ago. Instead he should have been kept at the much safer position of catcher where he would have gone injury-free.

LOL, you really think catcher is a safer position than the OF? Sometimes bad shit just happens. Catching is the dangerous position in baseball. Maybe if you think his familiarity with the spot meant something... but he's played all over the diamond since that injury and hasn't been injured.
 

Cesar Crespo

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And I'd be willing to bet money when Vaz is back, Swihart gets relegated to 3rd catcher duty again and getting no at bats. They do not like him at catcher.
 

DJnVa

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LOL, you really think catcher is a safer position than the OF? Sometimes bad shit just happens. Catching is the dangerous position in baseball. Maybe if you think his familiarity with the spot meant something... but he's played all over the diamond since that injury and hasn't been injured.
Hey, if you get a few hours today, maybe drop your sarcasm detector off. I think it's broken.
 

dbn

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Sarcasm noted, but the most severe of those injuries was directly related to an inexperienced outfielder crashing into a wall. Maybe if he were catching that day he would have had his hand shattered by a foul tip, but most likely not.

John Farrell was looking for any excuse to install noodle bar Vazquez as the starting catcher, and he got it when Swihart dropped a pipup 6 games into the season. This all comes back to Farrell’s inability to judge talent.
It's more of cervecería than a noodle bar, and is NOT the starting catcher.

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In my lifetime

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Hey, if you get a few hours today, maybe drop your sarcasm detector off. I think it's broken.
Thanks.

In addition, the point is glossed over when this subject is discussed, but it was the RS who 1st converted Swihart to a catcher. He played mostly SS in high school, then 1B and yes --- LF for Team USA. He got hurt as the overwhelming majority of professional athletes (heck most amateur competitive athletes) do at some point. We love to fault managers for just about anything, but I just don't think JF is to blame for this one.
 

tonyarmasjr

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There's no doubt about that. But the fact it's taking 4 years of development to get those 500 PAs means something too. I'm not saying it's fair, but at some point the waiting has to stop. Perhaps Swihart is just fragile--in the professional athlete sense of the word, or unlucky, or whatever.
Yes, at some point the waiting has to stop. It shouldn't be after one unsuccessful season following one significant injury. He's "unlucky" to have suffered that injury during peak development years, when he was on the cusp of being our starting catcher. He is not "fragile." All players have injuries. He had a serious one that required a serious recovery period, including a setback last year. That happens to multiple guys every year. It means his career was derailed, but not necessarily permanently. It's ok to wait for him to get back to full health to see if he can recover his ability. He's still only 26. Outside of the one injury, he's been relatively healthy over his professional career.

It also ignores 459 putrid minor league PA in the same time frame. Makes him look less fragile though. It really comes down to hitting for a high enough average.
It doesn't ignore that. Where are those 459 putrid PA? Outside of 2017 (a total of 257 PA), he's had at least a 91 wRC+ at every stop in his professional career except the 71 AAA PA to end 2014. Following 2017, he had another 33 PA in the DWL - with a .997 OPS. I don't disagree on the last part. He's always been a guy whose hit tool projected him to be a line drive hitter with good OBP skills. Power may or may not develop beyond that.


It's really pretty simple, and I'm not specifically directing this to the two above, but since people have to have results now (and whenever now is), the perspective changes on young players based on their most recent performance. Blake Swihart was a young minor league catcher who projected as 1) a decent bat at a position that is traditionally the worst across the league offensively and 2) athletic enough to a) become adequate defensively as he transitioned to the position full-time; b) provide value on the basepaths or at another position. In his first 3 years of pro ball (age 20-22), he followed that projection path and was successful as an age-advanced player learning the most difficult position on the field. His ranking as one of the top catching prospects in the game reflected that. At no point was he ever billed as a .900 OPS or 30 HR guy. However, some people think that since he was a highly-touted prospect that that was the expectation. Him not looking like that guy (now or at any point) must mean he was overrated or has busted. The bar is low for hitting at catcher: an .800 OPS generally ranks in the top 5 in MLB at the position. At age 23, he was thrust into big league duty and had a historically very good season for a catcher at that age. His development was nowhere near complete. Even at an age when most catching prospects are in AA, his offense and defense were right around league average for the position. So, four years in, he was on that projection path to be a very good player at the catcher position.

The following year, he started off the first third of the season in the same vein. During that time, the organization attempted to have him play other positions. Whether it was because they didn't like him as a catcher or they wanted him in the lineup at other positions is largely irrelevant today, since the decision makers from that time are no longer here. The result of that experiment, though, was that he suffered an injury that caused him to miss significant playing and development time. Let me reiterate, here, that in mid-2016 when he was injured he was still (and consistently) on that projection path of being an average-to-above average hitter with passable catcher defense that had a lot of room yet to develop. He missed the rest of 2016. His ankle surgery didn't occur until August of the 2016 season. In 2017, he started working his way back. Any athlete who has a significant injury takes some time to return to peak performance. It certainly makes sense that one whose primary position requires them to squat and move laterally quickly would need some time to recover from ankle surgery. He's also said openly that his lower body injury affected his ability to drive through his swing. Outside of the ankle injury, he's been relatively healthy. However, it flared up again mid-season. He didn't catch back to back games last year until his time in the Dominican Winter League. 2017 was basically a lost season for both development and performance, since he was suffering through working his way back from injury. Even if you want to say that's just a hindsight excuse (which some do), he is only a season of PA removed from being one of the top prospects in the game and proving it over the majority of his first big league season as a 23 year old. But, sure, we should label him as a bust pre-2018, or as worthless in early-2018 when he's hardly playing, or as fragile mid-2018 when he does start performing and suffers a minor injury - because that's what he was in a snapshot at those times if we ignore the totality of his track record and projection.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Sarcasm noted, but the most severe of those injuries was directly related to an inexperienced outfielder crashing into a wall. Maybe if he were catching that day he would have had his hand shattered by a foul tip, but most likely not.

John Farrell was looking for any excuse to install noodle bar Vazquez as the starting catcher, and he got it when Swihart dropped a pipup 6 games into the season. This all comes back to Farrell’s inability to judge talent.
Hindsight makes a fool of anyone but it’s a tough look for sure. Not just the pop-up but the fact that he was buried in part because half of those games were marked by bad pitching. The starters in those particular games were Buchholz, Price, and Buchholz. Price was up and down for much of the year while Clay was borderline unusable no matter who was catching.

But it’s Boston, if a young player isn’t Mookie or Pedroia off the bat we love to blow up what they aren’t great at yet while minimizing the good they have shown.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yes, at some point the waiting has to stop. It shouldn't be after one unsuccessful season following one significant injury. He's "unlucky" to have suffered that injury during peak development years, when he was on the cusp of being our starting catcher. He is not "fragile." All players have injuries. He had a serious one that required a serious recovery period, including a setback last year. That happens to multiple guys every year. It means his career was derailed, but not necessarily permanently. It's ok to wait for him to get back to full health to see if he can recover his ability. He's still only 26. Outside of the one injury, he's been relatively healthy over his professional career.


It doesn't ignore that. Where are those 459 putrid PA? Outside of 2017 (a total of 257 PA), he's had at least a 91 wRC+ at every stop in his professional career except the 71 AAA PA to end 2014. Following 2017, he had another 33 PA in the DWL - with a .997 OPS. I don't disagree on the last part. He's always been a guy whose hit tool projected him to be a line drive hitter with good OBP skills. Power may or may not develop beyond that.


It's really pretty simple, and I'm not specifically directing this to the two above, but since people have to have results now (and whenever now is), the perspective changes on young players based on their most recent performance. Blake Swihart was a young minor league catcher who projected as 1) a decent bat at a position that is traditionally the worst across the league offensively and 2) athletic enough to a) become adequate defensively as he transitioned to the position full-time; b) provide value on the basepaths or at another position. In his first 3 years of pro ball (age 20-22), he followed that projection path and was successful as an age-advanced player learning the most difficult position on the field. His ranking as one of the top catching prospects in the game reflected that. At no point was he ever billed as a .900 OPS or 30 HR guy. However, some people think that since he was a highly-touted prospect that that was the expectation. Him not looking like that guy (now or at any point) must mean he was overrated or has busted. The bar is low for hitting at catcher: an .800 OPS generally ranks in the top 5 in MLB at the position. At age 23, he was thrust into big league duty and had a historically very good season for a catcher at that age. His development was nowhere near complete. Even at an age when most catching prospects are in AA, his offense and defense were right around league average for the position. So, four years in, he was on that projection path to be a very good player at the catcher position.

The following year, he started off the first third of the season in the same vein. During that time, the organization attempted to have him play other positions. Whether it was because they didn't like him as a catcher or they wanted him in the lineup at other positions is largely irrelevant today, since the decision makers from that time are no longer here. The result of that experiment, though, was that he suffered an injury that caused him to miss significant playing and development time. Let me reiterate, here, that in mid-2016 when he was injured he was still (and consistently) on that projection path of being an average-to-above average hitter with passable catcher defense that had a lot of room yet to develop. He missed the rest of 2016. His ankle surgery didn't occur until August of the 2016 season. In 2017, he started working his way back. Any athlete who has a significant injury takes some time to return to peak performance. It certainly makes sense that one whose primary position requires them to squat and move laterally quickly would need some time to recover from ankle surgery. He's also said openly that his lower body injury affected his ability to drive through his swing. Outside of the ankle injury, he's been relatively healthy. However, it flared up again mid-season. He didn't catch back to back games last year until his time in the Dominican Winter League. 2017 was basically a lost season for both development and performance, since he was suffering through working his way back from injury. Even if you want to say that's just a hindsight excuse (which some do), he is only a season of PA removed from being one of the top prospects in the game and proving it over the majority of his first big league season as a 23 year old. But, sure, we should label him as a bust pre-2018, or as worthless in early-2018 when he's hardly playing, or as fragile mid-2018 when he does start performing and suffers a minor injury - because that's what he was in a snapshot at those times if we ignore the totality of his track record and projection.
Will Middlebrooks type players aren't very uncommon. Sometimes prospects bust or aren't as good as they were supposed to be and sometimes people have a really hard time moving on and accepting that. Also, 257 PA is more than half the 459 putrid PA I was talking about. Yes, let's just write off more than 50% of the PA and call his remaining plate appearances good. Ultimate cherry picking there.

I also don't care too much about 2014 and 2015. That was a long time ago.
 

Cesar Crespo

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out of curiosity, what do people see Swihart's upside as? I see him as a guy who could potentially hit around .270/.320/.390. I know that's what he basically did his rookie season but his rookie season he had a BAbip of .359.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Will Middlebrooks type players aren't very uncommon. Sometimes prospects bust or aren't as good as they were supposed to be and sometimes people have a really hard time moving on and accepting that. Also, 257 PA is more than half the 459 putrid PA I was talking about. Yes, let's just write off more than 50% of the PA and call his remaining plate appearances good. Ultimate cherry picking there.

I also don't care too much about 2014 and 2015. That was a long time ago.
What? I didn't write off any PA. You stated he had "459 putrid minor league PA in the same time frame." The given time frame was in the time he's amassed his 500 MLB PA. He did not have 459 putrid PA in that time. It's not cherry picking. I didn't choose to only include part of the PA you're citing. They don't all exist. Where are you getting that number? His 2017 sucked; I agree. It consisted of 257 PA. Where are you pulling those other 202 PA from to build your narrative? You're mistaken on several accounts.
Post-2015 MLB time, which was utterly successful:
2016 - 122 AAA PA as a 24yo changing positions - .655 OPS (on a .276 BABIP, mind you) for a 91 wRC+ - That is not putrid.
2016 - 74 MLB PA - .720 OPS for a 96 wRC+ - Not included in those 459, but, like the line above, flies in the face of the narrative that he hasn't been good since 2014 or 2015
2017 - 38 GCL PA - .575 OPS - Putrid. Already agreed.
2017 - 212 AAA PA - .539 OPS - Putrid. Already agreed.
Even if those 2016 AAA PA were putrid (they weren't), that's still only 370 PA. You're including his pre-MLB 2015 time, which doesn't fall in that time frame:
2015 - 80 AAA PA - .714 OPS for a 111 wRC+ - Also not putrid.
(The other 7 PA that get you to 459 are his 2017 MLB ones.)

Again, he was successful through mid-2016 when he was injured. If your bar for his batting lines is in the .800+ OPS range, you're going to be severely disappointed by 99% of the catchers we come across. That seems to be the case if a .700ish OPS for an age-advanced minor league catcher is putrid. Of 42 MLB catchers with at least 150 PA this year, there are currently 6 with an OPS > .800. 21 have an OPS > .700. Our two are at .548 and .598.

The Will Middlebrooks comparison is stupid. Some prospects flame out. But the two are not alike in profile or career arc other than they had successful debut seasons at age 23. Just because some people may have expected him to be a .900 OPS hitter based on his prospect rating doesn't mean he's a bust. He was never supposed to be that.

And your last sentence is what my entire first post was about. If you don't care about 2014 or 2015, because it's so long ago, then you're ignoring the progression curve he was following from 2012-2016. You're basing your assessment of him on his injury-plagued 2017.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What? I didn't write off any PA. You stated he had "459 putrid minor league PA in the same time frame." The given time frame was in the time he's amassed his 500 MLB PA. He did not have 459 putrid PA in that time. It's not cherry picking. I didn't choose to only include part of the PA you're citing. They don't all exist. Where are you getting that number? His 2017 sucked; I agree. It consisted of 257 PA. Where are you pulling those other 202 PA from to build your narrative? You're mistaken on several accounts.
Post-2015 MLB time, which was utterly successful:
2016 - 122 AAA PA as a 24yo changing positions - .655 OPS (on a .276 BABIP, mind you) for a 91 wRC+ - That is not putrid.
2016 - 74 MLB PA - .720 OPS for a 96 wRC+ - Not included in those 459, but, like the line above, flies in the face of the narrative that he hasn't been good since 2014 or 2015
2017 - 38 GCL PA - .575 OPS - Putrid. Already agreed.
2017 - 212 AAA PA - .539 OPS - Putrid. Already agreed.
Even if those 2016 AAA PA were putrid (they weren't), that's still only 370 PA. You're including his pre-MLB 2015 time, which doesn't fall in that time frame:
2015 - 80 AAA PA - .714 OPS for a 111 wRC+ - Also not putrid.
(The other 7 PA that get you to 459 are his 2017 MLB ones.)

Again, he was successful through mid-2016 when he was injured. If your bar for his batting lines is in the .800+ OPS range, you're going to be severely disappointed by 99% of the catchers we come across. That seems to be the case if a .700ish OPS for an age-advanced minor league catcher is putrid. Of 42 MLB catchers with at least 150 PA this year, there are currently 6 with an OPS > .800. 21 have an OPS > .700. Our two are at .548 and .598.

The Will Middlebrooks comparison is stupid. Some prospects flame out. But the two are not alike in profile or career arc other than they had successful debut seasons at age 23. Just because some people may have expected him to be a .900 OPS hitter based on his prospect rating doesn't mean he's a bust. He was never supposed to be that.

And your last sentence is what my entire first post was about. If you don't care about 2014 or 2015, because it's so long ago, then you're ignoring the progression curve he was following from 2012-2016. You're basing your assessment of him on his injury-plagued 2017.
I'm basing my assessment on newer information. And look at WMB's minor league career arc and come back to me. They both made improvements year over year and both were overrated. Swihart's 2016 sucked too. You are just making excuses for his performance to say it was ok. Oh he changed positions! So don't lots of prospects. A .655 OPS in AAA is bad, especially combined with an ISO of .068. His 2015 was fine (.049 ISO, ugh), but I included it because that was your time frame, 4 years.

Also, do you see those 7 PA he had in Portland in AA in 2015? It's 459 PA. Thanks for playing. If you are going to tell someone they are wrong, maybe triple check your information first. In that period, he slashed .227/.303/.291.

Edit: After they get to the majors, WMB and Swihart do have very different arcs. I'll give you that.


I guess you are talking about me not caring about 2014-15, but you said he accumulated 511 PA over those 4 years. I'm talking about the same 4 years you originally were.
 
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tonyarmasjr

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I'm basing my assessment on newer information. And look at WMB's minor league career arc and come back to me. They both made improvements year over year and both were overrated. Swihart's 2016 sucked too. You are just making excuses for his performance to say it was ok. Oh he changed positions! So don't lots of prospects. A .655 OPS in AAA is bad, especially combined with an ISO of .068. His 2015 was fine, but I included it because that was your time frame, 4 years.

Also, do you see those 7 PA he had in Portland in AA in 2015? It's 459 PA. Thanks for playing. If you are going to tell someone they are wrong, maybe triple check your information first.
Fine. Those 7 PA were also outside the time frame we were talking about. Wrong. And a 1.000 OPS in them. Not putrid, either. Wrong.

I've looked at WMB's career arc. They aren't the same. He had almost 300 more ml PA (almost 20%) before his debut. Meanwhile, Swihart was learning to play defense. There's also no severe ankle injury that causes his performance to drop off a cliff. I don't see any positional changes, either. There are some similarities, but they aren't that similar. As a profile, WMB was a high SLG, high K% hitter with mediocre defense at a position in the middle of the defensive spectrum. Also not like Blake's. What are the year over year improvements that parallel them?

You may have overrated Swihart, and that's why you think he's a bust. The upside .270/.320/.390 line you posted? That's a touch above his preseason 2016 ZiPS projection (.252/.297/.371) when he was a top 20 prospect in baseball. Your expectations were and are out of whack. His 2016 did not suck. The changing of positions is just another thing that muddles the picture. It doesn't need to explain anything away, because there's nothing that needs to be explained away. But, I can say with a large amount of certainty that it shouldn't have a positive impact on a player's hitting performance during that time. Whether it has a negative one is debatable and beside the point. That's a poor ISO in AAA; it's also not a very good descriptor of performance. A .655 OPS for a 24yo catcher in AAA is not bad. What if you combine it with his below average BABIP instead of ISO? A 91 wRC+ and a 13.9 BB% and K% aren't bad, either. But, please, accuse me of cherry picking again. All in all, its 122 PA. Huge sample size for us to parse. It also ignores his 2016 .720 OPS, 96 wRC+ in 74 MLB PA. Or does that suck, too? I don't need to makes excuses to say his 2016 performance was ok. It was just fine.
 

tonyarmasjr

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out of curiosity, what do people see Swihart's upside as? I see him as a guy who could potentially hit around .270/.320/.390. I know that's what he basically did his rookie season but his rookie season he had a BAbip of .359.
Also, to add to my response above, that line with average defense and his base running value would make him a top 10 catcher in baseball.

Edit to answer the question: I'd put his upside more like .285/.340/.400, with the possibility that some power could still develop in the future. I would be disappointed/surprised if he didn't hit a .700 OPS over a full season.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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How is ISO not a very good descriptor of performance? Do you think a player with a .065 ISO in the minors is going to translate very well to the majors? I'd guess he's not as bad as he's been the last few years and his ISO will get into the .130 range, but if it continues to be in the .065 area, he is not going to survive unless he's the next Luis Castillo and hits .300+ every year.

That's my only major concern with him, that and I don't think he's an average catcher, just a passable one. I'm not sure a passable defensive catcher with a .270/.320/.380 line is much better than Vaz or Leon unless you think Vaz and Leon are sub .600 OPS players.

edit: And your timeline was the last 4 years. Not since his ML debut.
 
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tonyarmasjr

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How is ISO not a very good descriptor of performance? Do you think a player with a .065 ISO in the minors is going to translate very well to the majors? I'd guess he's not as bad as he's been the last few years and his ISO will get into the .130 range, but if it continues to be in the .065 area, he is not going to survive unless he's the next Luis Castillo and hits .300+ every year.

That's my only major concern with him, that and I don't think he's an average catcher, just a passable one. I'm not sure a passable defensive catcher with a .270/.320/.380 line is much better than Vaz or Leon unless you think Vaz and Leon are sub .600 OPS players.

edit: And your timeline was the last 4 years. Not since his ML debut.
I don't like ISO much, in general. I think we use it to measure power in a player, yet it's not a good descriptor of contact quality. It's like SLG. It tells you something, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. It's also somewhat dependent on luck, especially in a guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. We know Swihart isn't going to hit a ton of HR (or XBH). His batting line will be more dependent on things like LD%, BB%, K%, contact and swing quality, and BABIP. So, yes, for him to be an above average hitter, he'll have to have a high AVG (i.e. Luis Castillo). But, he won't, necessarily, to be an above average hitting catcher, where the bar is lower.

The jury is certainly still out on his defense. He had some pretty good reviews throughout his minor league days, and we knew it would be a work in progress. His MLB time has shown him to be decent behind the plate. He was 24 of 45 catchers in 2015 (our only real sample. I used 200 PA as a cut-off. He had 309, which was 28 of 45.) in Fangraphs' Def RAA, He's looked largely nondescript this year, which would follow. His arm and pop times have always been good. It doesn't help that catcher defense is so hard to quantify. The ankle injury obviously plays a big part in trying to evaluate it, too. It had enough lasting effect that he didn't catch back-to-backs until this winter. I don't think we've seen enough of him, before or after, to know if it's had any permanent effects.
 

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I keep seeing Middlebrooks's name come up more and fore frequently with respect to trying to project prospects.

I get why he would normally be an attractive example for some purposes, but I think we should be very, very cautious about assessing projection systems, prospect analysis, player development, &tc. using as a basis a guy who wouldn't. fucking. wear. corrective lenses. to play Major League Baseball.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't like ISO much, in general. I think we use it to measure power in a player, yet it's not a good descriptor of contact quality. It's like SLG. It tells you something, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. It's also somewhat dependent on luck, especially in a guy who doesn't hit for a lot of power. We know Swihart isn't going to hit a ton of HR (or XBH). His batting line will be more dependent on things like LD%, BB%, K%, contact and swing quality, and BABIP. So, yes, for him to be an above average hitter, he'll have to have a high AVG (i.e. Luis Castillo). But, he won't, necessarily, to be an above average hitting catcher, where the bar is lower.

The jury is certainly still out on his defense. He had some pretty good reviews throughout his minor league days, and we knew it would be a work in progress. His MLB time has shown him to be decent behind the plate. He was 24 of 45 catchers in 2015 (our only real sample. I used 200 PA as a cut-off. He had 309, which was 28 of 45.) in Fangraphs' Def RAA, He's looked largely nondescript this year, which would follow. His arm and pop times have always been good. It doesn't help that catcher defense is so hard to quantify. The ankle injury obviously plays a big part in trying to evaluate it, too. It had enough lasting effect that he didn't catch back-to-backs until this winter. I don't think we've seen enough of him, before or after, to know if it's had any permanent effects.

It's possible the ankle injury has permanent effects too. Either way, it's easy to see how an ankle injury would effect someone's power at the plate.
 

tonyarmasjr

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Also, to add to my response above, that line with average defense and his base running value would make him a top 10 catcher in baseball.

Edit to answer the question: I'd put his upside more like .285/.340/.400, with the possibility that some power could still develop in the future. I would be disappointed/surprised if he didn't hit a .700 OPS over a full season.
Thinking about it some more, the guys that come to mind as comparisons are Jason Kendall and Russell Martin: catchers who can run a little bit, decent contact/OBP skills, not much for HRs (especially in Kendall's case), solid but not elite defensively, both dabbled in other positions.

Kendall's season averages over 15 years:
139 G, 580 PA, 5 HR, 13 SB, 8.3 BB%, 7.9 K%, .090 ISO, .306 BABIP, .288/.366/.378, 99 wRC+, 0.05 BsR, -0.5 Off, 8.5 Def, 2.5 fWAR

Martin's season averages over 13 years:
123 G, 487 PA, 14 HR, 8 SB, 11.9 BB%, 17.9 K%, .151 ISO, .283 BABIP, .250/.349/.401, 105 wRC+, 1.5 BsR, 1.6 Off, 10.5 Def, 2.9 fWAR

I think somewhere around those averages is a decent upside outlook for Blake.


As an aside, I don't think we'll see a Sox catcher play 130+ games any time soon; the last time was Varitek in 2008. Kendall did it consistently. He played over 140 games in 10 of 15 seasons, 150+ in 5 of them. Realmuto led the league last year with 141.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I keep seeing Middlebrooks's name come up more and fore frequently with respect to trying to project prospects.

I get why he would normally be an attractive example for some purposes, but I think we should be very, very cautious about assessing projection systems, prospect analysis, player development, &tc. using as a basis a guy who wouldn't. fucking. wear. corrective lenses. to play Major League Baseball.
To this day that still drives me insane.

Vision is 100% the most important thing when it comes to batting. How the F are you supposed to judge the spin on a ball when you can't see it clearly? It boggles the mind.
 

richgedman'sghost

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@bosox79 Something you are leaving out of the equation and that @tonyarmasjr just barely touched on is the positional difference in regards to defense. Besides learning a new position, Blake had to learn a whole new pitching staff upon promotion to the majors. Just learning the tendencies of the staff and the league as a whole is practically a full time job in itself.
Most teams I think would prefer that their young rookie catcher concentrate on their defense and calling a game the first year rather than his offense. Any offense the catcher provides his first year or so is a bonus. Catchers often get more rope and a a longer period to succeed even if they cannot hit right away. For example, Jason Varitek did not hit right away on his promotion to the Red Sox.
So anyway in short, for better or worse, I think you are underrating the struggles and time it takes a catcher to fully develop. In my opinion, Blake has only really had 2 years in the majors (if you count this year) of development behind the plate. It is way too soon to say what he is one way or another.
 

Reverend

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To this day that still drives me insane.

Vision is 100% the most important thing when it comes to batting. How the F are you supposed to judge the spin on a ball when you can't see it clearly? It boggles the mind.
I've seen whole rooms of Red Sox fans who don't agree about anything but their support of the team come together in blind, seething, incomprehending... emotion... about why that guy wouldn't fix his vision. People who don't even follow the team start googling him just to see what this particular kind of asshole looks like. I just... I don't get it. And I've never found anyone else who gets it, or thinks they get it.

Will Middlebrooks's eyes are the shitty Wyld Stallyns music of bitter Red Sox fandom.
 
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Plympton91

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@bosox79 Something you are leaving out of the equation and that @tonyarmasjr just barely touched on is the positional difference in regards to defense. Besides learning a new position, Blake had to learn a whole new pitching staff upon promotion to the majors. Just learning the tendencies of the staff and the league as a whole is practically a full time job in itself.
Most teams I think would prefer that their young rookie catcher concentrate on their defense and calling a game the first year rather than his offense. Any offense the catcher provides his first year or so is a bonus. Catchers often get more rope and a a longer period to succeed even if they cannot hit right away. For example, Jason Varitek did not hit right away on his promotion to the Red Sox.
So anyway in short, for better or worse, I think you are underrating the struggles and time it takes a catcher to fully develop. In my opinion, Blake has only really had 2 years in the majors (if you count this year) of development behind the plate. It is way too soon to say what he is one way or another.
The other thing bosox79 is leaving out is that Christian Vazquez’s OPS is 548 and Sandy Leon’s is 606.

Unless they are both among the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball, the bar is really really low to replace them.

In fact, if they think Swihart’s defense is so bad that they’d never consider him the #1 catcher, then catcher is far and away the most important position for them to be looking to upgrade over the next month and into next year.
 

Van Everyman

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Did Middlebrooks refuse to wear contacts? A google of “Will Middlebrooks contact lenses” turns up a bunch of articles from spring training 2014 where he was trying them out.
 

Reverend

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Did Middlebrooks refuse to wear contacts? A google of “Will Middlebrooks contact lenses” turns up a bunch of articles from spring training 2014 where he was trying them out.
If you read closely, the early articles quote him talking about him being able to see the ball well again, including the spin. Keep looking and you'll find the articles where he stops wearing them because they make his eyes feel dry or something.

As per above, some of us can only communicate about this for a limited period of time before becoming basically incoherent.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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When I first tried contacts I had a really hard time. The ones they gave me didn’t breathe so well, and couldn’t really make it through a full day without causing quite a bit of irritation to the point that I’d have to remove one or both of them and just squint my way through the rest of the day.

But then I went back to the eye doctor and they gave me a very breathable lens, the like of which I’ve worn ever since and performed all manner of activities with. Did I mention this was 7th grade and I was 12 years old?

To be fair, I understood where he was coming from when he claimed that his vision was perfectly fine and didn’t need correcting. I used to say the same thing when I was 10 and self-conscious about wearing glasses.
 

3_games_down

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The other thing bosox79 is leaving out is that Christian Vazquez’s OPS is 548 and Sandy Leon’s is 606.

Unless they are both among the best defensive catchers in the history of baseball, the bar is really really low to replace them.

In fact, if they think Swihart’s defense is so bad that they’d never consider him the #1 catcher, then catcher is far and away the most important position for them to be looking to upgrade over the next month and into next year.
Swihart has demonstrated that his defense is not terrible and he's flashed an intriguing hit tool for the position. @tonyarmasjr makes a compelling case. The Red Sox have a 9 game lead and are on a historic win pace. Data drives out speculation. The team can afford to give Swihart a chance to show that he is a catcher.
 

Cesar Crespo

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The other thing bosox79 is leaving out is that Christian Vazquez’s OPS is 548 and Sandy Leon’s is 606.

.
No, in fact I specifically mentioned it. If you believe they are sub .600 OPS players, sure. Are they? Maybe, maybe not. Vaz is all of one year removed from a season that was comparable to Blake's 2015. I think Leon is terrible but I guess you could make a case for him too. If Vaz and Leon are closer to the .650 mark, a .700 OPS with meh defense is not any better than what we have.

edit: It's probably not any worse either. The cheap option would be Vaz/Swihart in 2019. I just think it's funny people are putting so much weight into Christian's 2018 and ignoring his 2017 while ignoring Swihart's 2016-18 and focusing on 2015. Vaz slashed .290/.330/.404 last year. Honestly, I don't like any of the 3 but they are catchers so whatever. Also, what is Blake Swihart's OPS this year? You didn't mention it. I wonder why.
 
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DJnVa

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Data drives out speculation. The team can afford to give Swihart a chance to show that he is a catcher.
Just so I'm clear, the data you're referencing is 38 PAs in July with a .464 BABIP?

I mean, I hope there's something there, because I want whoever we play to play well, but I need more than 7 starts to think we have "data". And, in all honestly, assuming the pitchers like throwing to him, I like watching him hit more than the other options.
 
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3_games_down

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Just so I'm clear, the data you're referencing is 38 PAs in July with a .464 BABIP?

I mean, I hope there's something there, because I want whoever we play to play well, but I need more than 7 starts to think we have "data".
Heck no, I am saying that a larger sample size is needed and warranted based on need and upside. The team can afford to give Swihart a longer audition at catcher this year. Blake is still the Red Sox highest upside catching prospect, yes?
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Sandy is obviously not going to catch 4 out of 5 games the rest of the season, regardless of how much the pitchers like throwing to him or how good a game he calls. Once Blake comes back, he's going to get at least 2-3 starts a week, and will have a chance to show everyone what he's got. If he continues to show promise with the bat, and competence behind the plate, before CV comes back next month, then it may be Vaz who ends up being the odd man out. The playoff roster could be telling, as they may not want to carry 3 catchers.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Sandy is obviously not going to catch 4 out of 5 games the rest of the season, regardless of how much the pitchers like throwing to him or how good a game he calls. Once Blake comes back, he's going to get at least 2-3 starts a week, and will have a chance to show everyone what he's got. If he continues to show promise with the bat, and competence behind the plate, before CV comes back next month, then it may be Vaz who ends up being the odd man out. The playoff roster could be telling, as they may not want to carry 3 catchers.
Blake doesn't even have a return date yet. If he comes back after 10 days, and gets 2-3 starts a week until Vaz is back, that's like 5-6 starts. It's possible Vaz returns later than expected, though. This team is committed to Vaz long term so I'd be shocked if he didn't get PA upon his return regardless of how good Leon/Swihart are hitting. The choice is really between Leon and Swihart, imo.

edit: Blake could still get PA elsewhere which would help us determine what we have offensively, but it wouldn't tell us anything about his ability to catch.
 

bakahump

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Yea Middlebrooks.....grrrr

Add in the fact that there is also another option. 2 Actually.
1. Lasics- OK I get that messing with your eyes for a Professional MLBer is risky. But its become pretty routine nowadays.
I also get a phobia about people messing with your eyes. (I kinda have this thus I would be hard pressed to get lasics).
2. If only there were devices that you could wear OFF your eye that wouldnt make them dry. You could call them Plastics or Polycarbonites or whatever they are made of. You could maybe even design them with a strap and make them more useful for use during sports.
All kidding aside, I have worn glasses for 35 years. I have a phobia about my eyes with precluded Lasics (until my eyes got bad enough that it was no longer an option) and kept me from wanting to "Touch my eyeball" (yea I know you dont actually touch it but tell that to my subconscious. The fact that Middlebrooks (and Rice) never bothered to use even glasses (long term) just floors me.
 

tonyarmasjr

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No, in fact I specifically mentioned it. If you believe they are sub .600 OPS players, sure. Are they? Maybe, maybe not. Vaz is all of one year removed from a season that was comparable to Blake's 2015. I think Leon is terrible but I guess you could make a case for him too. If Vaz and Leon are closer to the .650 mark, a .700 OPS with meh defense is not any better than what we have.

edit: It's probably not any worse either. The cheap option would be Vaz/Swihart in 2019. I just think it's funny people are putting so much weight into Christian's 2018 and ignoring his 2017 while ignoring Swihart's 2016-18 and focusing on 2015. Vaz slashed .290/.330/.404 last year. Honestly, I don't like any of the 3 but they are catchers so whatever. Also, what is Blake Swihart's OPS this year? You didn't mention it. I wonder why.
...This team is committed to Vaz long term so I'd be shocked if he didn't get PA upon his return regardless of how good Leon/Swihart are hitting. The choice is really between Leon and Swihart, imo.

edit: Blake could still get PA elsewhere which would help us determine what we have offensively, but it wouldn't tell us anything about his ability to catch.
Why have we been arguing, friend? We're seeing much the same thing here. 100% agree Sandy Leon is replacement level. He has 2319 career minor league PA with an OPS of .654. He has 1023 MLB PA with an OPS of .656. In 12 professional seasons, he's had an OPS over .700 twice. 2016 was a miracle half season for him, providing 2.5 of his career 2.6 fWAR. It's safe to say he's a .650ish OPS hitter. His solid defense makes him a serviceable MLB backup.

Vazquez was billed as a generational defender whose bat would lag behind. But he was decent at the plate through the minors as an age-advanced catcher. Full season OPS up until his debut: .665, .863, .713, .766. He's got a career minor league OPS of .734. That doesn't scream "this guy can't and won't ever hit." Regardless of the defense, which has taken a step back, he's been a mixed bag at the big league level. There's a big difference between the .735 guy he was last year (36% of his total MLB PA fwiw) and the .617, .585, and .548 in the other years. This season is the worst season of his pro career. It's really hard to gauge what he is with such a drastic step back this year. I think the expectation of a .675-.725 OPS is realistic, but it's certainly not a given. With good-to-great defense (also not a given, it appears), that can be a 2-win starting catcher.

I've given my pitch on Swihart, which is really that we don't know yet. He, too, had some success coming up through the minors at an early age, followed by a really good age 23 debut season. The fact that he had so much room to grow, both offensively and defensively, is what's enticing. And then he got derailed. But if he can be a legitimate MLB catcher defensively, and it looks that way to me, then it's up to his bat whether he's better overall than Vazquez.

I also agree the Sox have (rightly, imo) hitched their wagon to Vazquez with his extension, and Leon is not going to supplant him. Swihart is the wild card, and, like you say, the choice is/will be between him and Leon. If Swihart can catch, I think it's a no-brainer. I would have even been fine with them moving on from Leon this spring. They obviously weren't confident in Swihart as the backup catcher at that point, though, and the current injuries make that look like a good decision. But Leon isn't really much more than Dan Butler or any other replacement level catcher. I hope to see more of Vazquez and Swihart (and less of Leon) as they come back and in 2019. It remains to be seem whether they are the long term answer(s) at catcher, but it's clear that Leon is not. However, no matter how good or bad they are the rest of this year, I think going into 2019 with Vazquez and Swihart as the only catchers is a lot of risk to take on. I think they'll both be fine going forward, but do you want to have to live with what I think?
 

ehaz

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Why have we been arguing, friend? We're seeing much the same thing here. 100% agree Sandy Leon is replacement level. He has 2319 career minor league PA with an OPS of .654. He has 1023 MLB PA with an OPS of .656. In 12 professional seasons, he's had an OPS over .700 twice. 2016 was a miracle half season for him, providing 2.5 of his career 2.6 fWAR. It's safe to say he's a .650ish OPS hitter. His solid defense makes him a serviceable MLB backup.

Vazquez was billed as a generational defender whose bat would lag behind. But he was decent at the plate through the minors as an age-advanced catcher. Full season OPS up until his debut: .665, .863, .713, .766. He's got a career minor league OPS of .734. That doesn't scream "this guy can't and won't ever hit." Regardless of the defense, which has taken a step back, he's been a mixed bag at the big league level. There's a big difference between the .735 guy he was last year (36% of his total MLB PA fwiw) and the .617, .585, and .548 in the other years. This season is the worst season of his pro career. It's really hard to gauge what he is with such a drastic step back this year. I think the expectation of a .675-.725 OPS is realistic, but it's certainly not a given. With good-to-great defense (also not a given, it appears), that can be a 2-win starting catcher.

I've given my pitch on Swihart, which is really that we don't know yet. He, too, had some success coming up through the minors at an early age, followed by a really good age 23 debut season. The fact that he had so much room to grow, both offensively and defensively, is what's enticing. And then he got derailed. But if he can be a legitimate MLB catcher defensively, and it looks that way to me, then it's up to his bat whether he's better overall than Vazquez.

I also agree the Sox have (rightly, imo) hitched their wagon to Vazquez with his extension, and Leon is not going to supplant him. Swihart is the wild card, and, like you say, the choice is/will be between him and Leon. If Swihart can catch, I think it's a no-brainer. I would have even been fine with them moving on from Leon this spring. They obviously weren't confident in Swihart as the backup catcher at that point, though, and the current injuries make that look like a good decision. But Leon isn't really much more than Dan Butler or any other replacement level catcher. I hope to see more of Vazquez and Swihart (and less of Leon) as they come back and in 2019. It remains to be seem whether they are the long term answer(s) at catcher, but it's clear that Leon is not. However, no matter how good or bad they are the rest of this year, I think going into 2019 with Vazquez and Swihart as the only catchers is a lot of risk to take on. I think they'll both be fine going forward, but do you want to have to live with what I think?
Hell no. Leon’s value to the pitching staff is unquantifiable and visible during games. If you there is a choice between three noodle bat catchers, give me the one the pitchers and coaching staff can’t live without.
 

Sampo Gida

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Hell no. Leon’s value to the pitching staff is unquantifiable and visible during games. If you there is a choice between three noodle bat catchers, give me the one the pitchers and coaching staff can’t live without.
24-1 the last 25 games he has started
 

CanvasAlley

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Sandy is obviously not going to catch 4 out of 5 games the rest of the season, regardless of how much the pitchers like throwing to him or how good a game he calls. Once Blake comes back, he's going to get at least 2-3 starts a week, and will have a chance to show everyone what he's got. If he continues to show promise with the bat, and competence behind the plate, before CV comes back next month, then it may be Vaz who ends up being the odd man out. The playoff roster could be telling, as they may not want to carry 3 catchers.
I think that will, indeed, be the case. With his speed on the base paths and his awakening success at the plate, Swihart will be more helpful than Vazquez in the playoffs. I really liked his level of play prior to his hamstring woes.
 

CanvasAlley

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Sandy is obviously not going to catch 4 out of 5 games the rest of the season, regardless of how much the pitchers like throwing to him or how good a game he calls. Once Blake comes back, he's going to get at least 2-3 starts a week, and will have a chance to show everyone what he's got. If he continues to show promise with the bat, and competence behind the plate, before CV comes back next month, then it may be Vaz who ends up being the odd man out. The playoff roster could be telling, as they may not want to carry 3 catchers.
I think that will, indeed, be the case. With his speed on the base paths and his awakening success at the plate, Swihart will be more helpful than Vazquez in the playoffs. I really liked his level of play prior to his hamstring woes.
 

grimshaw

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Why have we been arguing, friend? We're seeing much the same thing here. 100% agree Sandy Leon is replacement level. He has 2319 career minor league PA with an OPS of .654. He has 1023 MLB PA with an OPS of .656. In 12 professional seasons, he's had an OPS over .700 twice. 2016 was a miracle half season for him, providing 2.5 of his career 2.6 fWAR. It's safe to say he's a .650ish OPS hitter. His solid defense makes him a serviceable MLB backup.
I'm not sure if you're arguing Leon's relative value to the team or not, but I think WAR for catchers isn't very useful since it doesn't encompass all aspects of the position. For some reason this team is 25 of 26 with Leon behind the plate, and their starting pitching has been insanely good over much of that span. Eovaldi mentioned how instantly in sync he and Leon were and he called a different game than the Rays had.

Not related to any of your points but I'm happy with Swihart's improvements and encouraged by his observable defense most of all. That said, think we're being overly fan boyish about his offense. It's quite possible major league pitchers thought they were pitching to one of the worst back up hitting catchers in baseball. Let's see if its just a hot streak or if pitchers adjust accordingly.
 

Al Zarilla

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I'm not sure if you're arguing Leon's relative value to the team or not, but I think WAR for catchers isn't very useful since it doesn't encompass all aspects of the position. For some reason this team is 25 of 26 with Leon behind the plate, and their starting pitching has been insanely good over much of that span.
....Eovaldi mentioned how instantly in sync he and Leon were and he called a different game than the Rays had.
1’s a fastball, 2’s a curve, etc. Then there is location of course: in, out, up, down. I never pitched, or caught, but I never understood why catchers can make a big difference to a pitcher/game. I’m believing more and
more they do, but don’t know why. I mean, no catcher is going to call for middle in and down to a LHH because that’s the sweet zone to so many of them. You call for pitches near or on the black and then hope. Varitek supposedly studied tons of film on lots of hitters and knew which quadrants of the strike zone to avoid against them. Does Leon? Or, maybe it’s largely a confidence thing transmitted between P and C?
 

RIrooter09

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1’s a fastball, 2’s a curve, etc. Then there is location of course: in, out, up, down. I never pitched, or caught, but I never understood why catchers can make a big difference to a pitcher/game. I’m believing more and
more they do, but don’t know why. I mean, no catcher is going to call for middle in and down to a LHH because that’s the sweet zone to so many of them. You call for pitches near or on the black and then hope. Varitek supposedly studied tons of film on lots of hitters and knew which quadrants of the strike zone to avoid against them. Does Leon? Or, maybe it’s largely a confidence thing transmitted between P and C?
A good catcher also has a feel for what the pitcher is throwing well that day. Leon may be better than others at recognizing that and adjusting mid game.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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There's an element of hitter psychology at play as well. Whether that's studying tendencies, observing tells, or just trying to crawl in the batter's head, you want to make sure you aren't usually giving the batter what he's looking for.

You hear hitters regularly talk about looking for a specific pitch in a specific scenario. Ideally the guy calling the game would do a good job making sure to not call that pitch or at least call for it in an unexpected spot.

Good luck quantifying such a thing or even telling if anyone is good at it through anything other than anecdotes, but there's a potential skill there.