Romeo has a 7 foot wingspan I believe, 6’10 for Nesmith. I don’t think either can be small ball 4s or anything, but should be fine on the wings.
Tatum got the bag(5 years, $195 million)
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Is it possible to remove the Tatum-off AND Brown-off minutes from the Tatum-off data? Because maybe I've missed a few here or there, but if both of them aren't playing it's pretty much always garbage time that probably shouldn't be counted.
I hate comparing Tatum and Brown. And love Jaylen (pretty much untradeable in my book) BUT anyone claiming Brown has a higher ceiling than Tatum needs to explain to me why Jaylen doesn't have a higher +/-? same system, coach, teammates, opponents, etc
What can Brad do to surround Jaylen with better complementary players when JT is not on the floor with him? I think figuring that out is a lot more important than playing this asinine Double BIG lineup for 10mpg.
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I think the higher ceiling is based on his teleporting first step--if he keeps improving his passing, you can space out around that and just let him break his guy down.
I can see the case for his having a higher ceiling if literally everything breaks right, but it's probably academic, because things rarely break that right, and Tatum just keeps showing ability to improve.
My Tatum ceiling is the best player in the NBA. And I just don't see Brown's ceiling ever being that with his natural instincts on defense.
Is surrounding Jaylen with shooters, ballhandlers, big the best way forward? There will be ~10-15mpg that Tatum isn't on the floor. It would behoove Brad to dream up a Jaylen led group that can be consistently positive.
maybe it has a little bit to do with it
Is there a way of Tatum being the best player in the NBA in 3-4 seasons?
Not really. They're not crazy tall, but their lengths are fine enough. It's great having long armed 6'8" wings, but they don't grow on trees (which is why they're so coveted). I'd rather a 6'5" athletic wing to a 6'8" guy with slower feet and no touch/shot/explosiveness.
This is a great way of putting it.
JT could win an MVP without being best-player-on-earth.
Whenever you're talking about someone as good as young as Tatum is, I don't think you can say there's not a path for him to be best player in the league. It's a very slim path, but there absolutely is one. It would probably look like him being DPOY-level on one end (I think he'll get a votes at least in the next couple years), continuing to increase his passing, raining hellfire from 3, figuring out a better plan in the lane, etc.
I agree it's not likely, but the entire league has been guilty of underestimating the kind of player Tatum can be pretty much from day 1, and he just continues to progress.
Even as recently as a week ago we were wondering what was wrong with him, and then he starts figuring it out, like he always does. He's a freakish outlier in terms of improvement, coachability, and aptitude.
I agree it's not likely, but the entire league has been guilty of underestimating the kind of player Tatum can be pretty much from day 1, and he just continues to progress.
Even as recently as a week ago we were wondering what was wrong with him, and then he starts figuring it out, like he always does. He's a freakish outlier in terms of improvement, coachability, and aptitude.
So what kind of stat line does uber-peak Tatum put up on a per-game average? 30 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists, 2-3 steals, while shooting 50% from the floor, 45% from three, and 90% from the line?
if he does that (which would be absurd) + his defense = best player in the NBA
That's basically peak-Durant, maybe with a little less offense and a bit more defense so... yeah, best player in the NBA. And he's only 19!
exactly what I was thinking with better defense
KD never shot above 42.5% from 3 and eclipsed 30pts/season twice.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/d/duranke01.html
Most young players who put up great raw stats don’t put up elite impact stats as well, that’s usually reserved for the best of the best.
Just a guess, but I think this will be the second straight season where Tatum will be top 10 in pretty much all of the impact stats, ontop of putting up something like 27/8/4, with elite defense. And he doesn’t turn 23 for a couple of months. I don’t know if he will be the best player in the league, but I think he will consistently be in the top 3-5 range throughout his prime.
Just a guess, but I think this will be the second straight season where Tatum will be top 10 in pretty much all of the impact stats, ontop of putting up something like 27/8/4, with elite defense. And he doesn’t turn 23 for a couple of months. I don’t know if he will be the best player in the league, but I think he will consistently be in the top 3-5 range throughout his prime.
I kinda forgot KD won his first scoring title at 21. Then proceeded to win 3 more in the next 4 years. I love Tatum, but it's probably a 99th percentile outcome for him to approach KD's level of offensive ability.
99%? you may want to check your model
what's your definition of "KD's level of offensive ability"?
I mean, peak KD is a generational talent and probably one of the best pure scorers in the history of the league. Do I think Tatum has a lot of growth left on the offensive end? Yes, of course. But there's a lot of room between where he is now and a guy who won 4 scoring titles in 5 years by the time he was 25 and came within a handful of FTs of putting up a 50/40/90 season. Maybe 99th percentile is a bit hyperbolic, but it's hardly the median outcome that Tatum becomes a historically great player on offense.
Agreed—-KD is the best-case offensive scenario for Tatum and he’s unlikely to reach it. That’s just reality, Durant isn’t just a “best in league” efficient scorer he’s a generational one. No shame in being a bit worse offensively than him.
Tatum does have a real chance of being better defensively though, and arguably already is.
Someone made the comment that this board has an odd relationship to Tatum—anything other than saying he’s along the greatest players ever is described as criticism. He’s spectacular, one of the top ten (and maybe top five) assets in the game today and he’s also neither number one nor perfect. And that’s totally ok
Tatum does have a real chance of being better defensively though, and arguably already is.
Someone made the comment that this board has an odd relationship to Tatum—anything other than saying he’s along the greatest players ever is described as criticism. He’s spectacular, one of the top ten (and maybe top five) assets in the game today and he’s also neither number one nor perfect. And that’s totally ok
I don't think that he could maintain those counting numbers as a full season average while still being that efficient and play all-defense defense. But as love says above, the world underestimates this guy and keeps being wrong.
Brad was talking about this in one of the pre games. Scal had a graphic up how the C's led the league in combined blocks and steals, but Brad said that's not how he wants them to play D. Under CBS I don't think we'll ever see big steals numbers from either of them
Did that "someone" have any quotes backing up the "criticism from the board"? because that's laughable and I've never seen anyone around here describe Jayson Tatum "the greatest players ever" or implied that he is "number one" or "perfect".
We were discussing Tatum's ceiling
This might be a galaxy brain post, so bear with me but... do we even want him to be that kind of player? I mean, the efficiency is prob impossible for him to achieve, but from a raw stats perspective, would we want that for the team?
I ask because that'd be pretty high usage - almost Doncic/Harden territory - and while I think that would get Tatum MVPs and a nice shoe deal, I don't know that it would be ideal for the Celtics. Check out this list of highest usage players (by season) of all-time: https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/usg_pct_season.html
By my count, you don't find an NBA champion until Michael Jordan at 33 and you don't come across your second NBA champion until Michael Jordan at 47. The first non-Michael Jordan championship winner on the list is Steph Curry at 82.
I feel like we're seeing a pattern with these high-usage players in the modern NBA - like Harden, Doncic, Giannis, etc. - that they will carry teams in the regular season and put up insane numbers. But then the playoffs arrive, defenses tighten up, the isolation scoring becomes less efficient, and while they'll be able to put together a marvelous performance or two, the rest of the team is unprepared to contribute because they haven't had to all season.
If Tatum is putting up that stat line, I'm imagining it means less ball movement, a lot more ISO, and less flow in the offense. You want those skills there for crunch time, but I don't think that's a sustainable offense for winning in the playoffs. He's not Michael Jordan, but he can be peak Kawhi (maybe), and we've seen that's plenty good enough to get a balanced team to a championship.
So while I think we want him to have those skills in place - scoring when he wants, being efficient, distributing to open teammates - I think if he's scoring 30 points a game for us, it's probably a bad sign.
Its a legitimate point. I do sometimes worry that Tatum's style offensively seems to be trending towards locking down other options for the offense. By that I mean, Tatum regularly receives the ball, spends 3-5 seconds of shot clock just standing or dribbling without a plan, and then gets into his move. Often, he creates something out of that, but it is pretty Tatum-centric while he has it. Jaylen on the other hand is doing a good job attacking quickly and if it isn't there he moves the ball.
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added size/muscle/maturity will organically lead to better finishing & more whistles. 30ppg isn't that far away with 1 extra layup and more FTs
In theory, I agree. Realistically, it would not take a particularly meaningful increase in usage or efficiency to turn Tatum into a 30 point per game scorer. If he were to go 47/40/85 (he's 47/45/89 through 9 games) and get up to 5-6 FT/game (was 4.7 last year, currently 3.9) then he really only needs to take another shot or two per game to get up to 30. Tatum's current usage rate is 30.3%, good for 15th in the league and well off the 36%+ we saw from guys like Giannis, Harden, and Luka last year.
Totally understand that on an average basis, but typically it doesn't work out that way game to game. Some games he'll be efficient, others he'll be inefficient and it'll take several more attempts to get to that number. He's at 45% from three this year - that's not sustainable and it'll regress (as much as I love it). Plus he has to shoulder more offensive load until Kemba gets back. We want that high usage in the reserves for times like these, but might not be the best strategy night-to-night.
Anyway, long way of saying I love how he and Jaylen have started the year, they both seem happy with their roles, and I don't know that I want it to change all that much. I don't think he needs to get to 30 PPG for this team to get better - he just needs to be able to do what he's doing now against the top teams in the playoffs and consistently. I never feel like we're losing because of Tatum, it's typically because other guys (outside of Jaylen) aren't stepping up.
Leaving PPG aside, he's making some big steps this year at playing out of the mid-range and postups. It initially looks inefficient, but teams know that if they don't crowd his short fadeaway, it's a high-percentage shot. That in turn is opening up step-throughs, fakes, and passes from closer range.
I'm maybe the biggest Tatum stepback/sidestep fan here, but I really like the possibilities of this mid-post Tatum as a playmaker. It looks like a more viable immediate path for him than doing everything as PnR downhill to the rim.
I'm maybe the biggest Tatum stepback/sidestep fan here, but I really like the possibilities of this mid-post Tatum as a playmaker. It looks like a more viable immediate path for him than doing everything as PnR downhill to the rim.
This is a great catch. To me it's the only thing that he has really added from bubble Tatum (who was already ridiculously good Tatum). He is a little more comfortable passing out of the swam double too, I suppose. But he seems to have added a Bird/Durant casual fadeaway. He always had the spin-into-a-turnaround thing. But now he's just letting it fly if you're not sitting on his shooting hand. So defenders have to get in his shirt, which opens up a lot--as you note, easy stepthroughs, pocket passes, and eventually trips to the line too.
Yea. This is where some of the confusion sets in.
I'm talking about a few years down the road. Tatum's ceiling.
I'm just envisioning a world where JT could average 30+PPG for a season
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I have no doubt whatsoever that JT could average 30 for a season. None.
The question is whether other things are sacrified to that end and if so, which ones. Efficiency, defense, and playmaking for others are what's on the table.
Imo, he could give up a little efficiency, keep most of the defense, and average 30, especially once he starts getting superstar calls consistently.
At what TS% is he a top 1-2 player with his defense, 60?
I agree with your point overall but Ihave to quibble with the “maybe top five” asset in the league. Isn’t he minimum top 5 and likely top 3?
Who would you trade him for other than Luka and Giannis?
it's a good question, I personally would take Anthony Davis for sure. I think you can make the case for Jokic pretty easily. Beyond that it gets tough in my view---Morant might get a few votes but to me that's still a lot of projection; you can make the case for Lebron still, but I think he's just too old for the multi-year value to match up. I would say same for Kawhi, though I can imagine someone preferring him. Zion will also get some votes, though not from me personally. Tough for me to see anyone else really....
I guess the question is, how much does defense matter? Most of the media that claim "best player", or give Top 10 lists give little to no weight to defense IMO
Tatum would need to consistently be 60-61% TS to reach KD level player (def incl). With Tatum adding size/whistle/finishing in the next 2-3 seasons, IMO there is a greater than 1% chance he gets there. YMMV
This will get ridiculed probably, but when I really think about this, for me the list is no one. That doesn't mean he's the best player in the NBA or anything, but there's a case to be made he's maybe the best player for this team. Some of my qualms with other players are around conditioning and my reasoning for that is I think it's an important sign for upside. If you're a guy who hasn't improved your body after 2-3 years in the league aka multiple offseasons, I'm going to prefer the player like Tatum who has actually transformed his body and showed he's serious about it. Also, I just think it's so much easier to find a big to fit around him rather than find a wing to fit around a big like AD or Jokic.
Zion - if he showed he could stay in shape, different story, but I'm getting a lot of "wasted potential" vibes from him until he gets into serious shape
Kawhi - older, less effective recently, more expensive
Luka - definitely a better offensive player, but defense and conditioning are an issue.
Giannis - He's incredible and can carry a team through the regular season better than Tatum, but also limited when the playoffs get real. Despite all of the talent he brings to the table as a defender and the kind of physical superiority he brings to the game, I'd rather Tatum have the ball at the end of a game when it counts. Not being able to shoot in 2021 is a real challenge
Lebron - Better player now, but Tatum has 10 more years to contribute
Ja - he's slight and a PG; though he's cheaper, I'd rather the 6'9" player who's a superior shooter
AD - Amazing player who I'd love to pair with Jayson, but I don' believe he can carry a team to a championship without a great perimeter pairing
Jokic - Better offensive player all around, but I'd rather the wing with defensive skills (also, outside of this year, has had conditioning issues)
Imo, the top five assets in the league are pretty clearly AD, Luka, Jokic, Giannis, and Tatum (in no order). Zion might be an interesting debate to crack the top five but I think it's a losing position. I believe there's a decent gap between those six and everyone else.
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I think that's possible, like more than 1% possible. We're in agreement.
I'd also be happy with a more Birdian path, where he averages 26/10/8 at 50/40/90 and becomes known more for getting his teammates easy baskets than dropping 50pt games on the regular. More than one path.
I'm never betting against him or JB again, that's for fuck sure.
Agreed. They keep on getting better, not sure why anyone would hop off the train. Clearly they put in the off-season/in-season work. Will JT regress from 45% from 3 this season, probably.... but I wouldn't be shocked if he started hitting that level over the next few seasons. And I'm also a cheerleader of Tatum's side-step/step-back 3s, keep on firing in game and working on them in the off-season.
It's fantastic that Danny/Brad had no problem naming them 1A & 1B. and didn't blink when Gordon got the Charlotte moneybag... Just fill in around JayCrew and the team will be set up for a nice 5-7yr run.
like trades demands from Rich Paul and some anti-Celtic commentary from his Old Man
I know you're just looking at this strictly from a talent perspective
BUT I'll never forget AD wearing a Looney Tunes T-Shirt on the last day of the season he quit on the Pelicans: "That's All Folks"...
That dings his "asset value" IMO, that's probably not rational, just don't like that crap.
I really like Tatum's infrastructure going forward: family, coaching, and his representation.
I think the much more interesting question is, where is Jaylen on this list?
I think after this start it’s minimum top 20. Due to age, I think I would put him top 15?
As you said, after that top 6 it gets really murky
Luka
Giannis
Tatum
Jokic
Zion
AD
(Just thinking aloud with these next names and after typing them all out, I guess it’s how you define “asset” really)
Embiid?
Kawhi?
LeBron?
Harden?
Curry?
KAT?
Lillard?
PG?
Bam?
Booker?
Morant?
Beal?
Mitchell?
Murray?
Fox?
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