I think examining some of the underlying assumptions/view points might advance the discussion. As I understand the move GH viewpoint, the argument is this:
The Celtics will have face the repeater tax two and three seasons from now, when the J's will be peaking. Danny should be planning on maximizing the roster in those years. So Danny should move GH now. His loss will be offset by the acquisition of a player at the deadline via a TPE. It will also be offset by continued growth from the J's, a larger role for Smart and some improvement from Romeo/Grant.
While I understand the logic of that position, here is where I differ: THE FUTURE IS UNPREDICTABLE.
I think we all agree that the Celtics are now in the business of winning playoff games and titles. The Celtics have a reasonable chance at winning the East and making the Finals next year. I do not believe that moving GH so that they can acquire someone at the deadline with a TPE maximizes the changes for winning the East next year.
- A team can sustain in the regular season by replacing 85% of a departed player. In the playoffs, that missing 15% is magnified. A healthy GH may be a regular season luxury, but he can be a playoff necessity. E.g. we just watched a playoffs where GH's absence/return to the lineup was seen as the key to beating the Heat.
- A healthy GH's skill is particularly hard to replace. He is a two way wing, who can make plays for others
- I am less sanguine than you about how many teams will be sellers. There will not be that many teams in the tax. In the West, no one appears to be tanking other than (probably) OKC. Everyone will be competing for 7, 8 and 9 and there may be a play in.
- Re internal improvement: Tatum just made a massive leap. Improvement tends to happen in fits and starts. Having just jumped a whole level, it is not reasonable to expect Tatum to make significant gains in the next 6 months. I expect Brown to continue to improve. Second year players tend to make substantial jumps. So Grant Williams should have a larger role. But's he taking Kanter's minutes not Haywards. Langford has shown he can defend - that's it. I have hopes too, but there is no basis to assume he's going to be a real offensive contributor in the playoffs.
Back to the future. Any reasonable person would have looked at the Durant, Westbrook, Harden, Ibaka Thunder that had just lot to the Heat in the Finals and concluded that that roster was going to dominate the West for the next 5 years. The Heatles were going to win how many rings? The Warriors were light years ahead?
Shit happens. Tatum or Brown get hurt and is never the same (GH says hi). Giannis goes to the Heat and forms a super team that no one can get past for 3-4 years. We get a vaccine by January, stadiums are full again and the cap continues to rise. Bottom line, we can far far more certainty about the Celtics ability to compete for the title next year, then we can in 2021-22 or 2022-23.
If moving GH was the only path to avoiding the repeater tax, I would agree with the pro trade GH crowd. But its not. While none of us can predict the future, we can look at the cap sheet and see that the Celtics will have optionality in 2021-22 to duck the tax.