Texans game goat thread

[NextBigThing8184]

Must this always be recited - the wasteland is on the offensive side of the ball:

- Pop has been great, full stop. Total steal. He's not an every-down guy, as they've had to play extra TEs so often, but he's obviously their best slot WR.
- Sow has been booted from the starting lineup in favor of off-the-street guards. Injuries and inconsistent play.
- Onwenu is an absolute steal in the 6th round of 2020. Better at guard than tackle, he's mostly delivered and gotten paid.
- Boutte DNP most of last year, and only this week began to show the skills that made many consider him a major sleeper.
- Stevenson has had flashes as the lead back, but between injuries and drops, I don't think he'd be considered a top 20 RB (I looked it up - nfl.com ranked him 22nd, and he didn't make other top 20 lists).

...and thus, that would be 3 offensive starters garnered in BB's last 5 years of drafts (2019-2023), none at premium positions (no QB, X/Y WR, TE1, or OT), leading the team to horrendous offensive play for the last 3 seasons. I think that's fair to call that a wasteland, and it's why he got fired.

In those 5 years, how many OT, WR, QB and TE1 did they even attempt to find with early picks?

They didn’t invest in tackle or tight end. Which is a problem in itself, sure but they didn’t really need a TE since they went from Gronk to Henry. Why would they be drafting one early? Maybe some later round shots

The fact of the matter is, if we’re going to slam BB’s drafting, I think it would be a lot more accurate to criticize the priorities rather than hit rates. His success rate is a little below average since 2019 (and overall above average in his entire run with the Pats). If we want to say his hits were mostly defensive, that’s true, but the investment was largely on defense.

BB had a massive amount of premium talent get old, expensive, retire, injured or leave all in a short time. It was unavoidable IMO that the talent level on the roster was going to crumble. That it happened disproportionately to the offense is unfortunate. But if your expectations are a quality “QB, OT, X/Y WR and TE1” all coming through the draft in a 5 year span (while also hitting on non premium positions and defense presumably), you’re going to be very disappointed in the future. It’s hard to find 2 of those things in a 5 year span let alone all of them.

 

[8slim]

In those 5 years, how many OT, WR, QB and TE1 did they even attempt to find with early picks?

They didn’t invest in tackle or tight end. Which is a problem in itself, sure but they didn’t really need a TE since they went from Gronk to Henry. Why would they be drafting one early? Maybe some later round shots

The fact of the matter is, if we’re going to slam BB’s drafting, I think it would be a lot more accurate to criticize the priorities rather than hit rates. His success rate is a little below average since 2019 (and overall above average in his entire run with the Pats). If we want to say his hits were mostly defensive, that’s true, but the investment was largely on defense.

BB had a massive amount of premium talent get old, expensive, retire, injured or leave all in a short time. It was unavoidable IMO that the talent level on the roster was going to crumble. That it happened disproportionately to the offense is unfortunate. But if your expectations are a quality “QB, OT, X/Y WR and TE1” all coming through the draft in a 5 year span (while also hitting on non premium positions and defense presumably), you’re going to be very disappointed in the future. It’s hard to find 2 of those things in a 5 year span let alone all of them.

Tight End is a position that shines a light on the draft and personnel misfires over the past few years. We all knew that Gronk was wavering about playing coming off the 2018 season. He should have made a decision before the 2019 draft, but he didn't. Still, BB knew TE was going to be a need, if not that season, certainly the next.

It was a mediocre draft for TE talent though: Hockenson, Fant (no chance at those 2 obviously), Irv Smith, Sample, Oliver, Knox. And of course he didn't draft any of them, choosing to sign the corpse of Ben Watson to pair with Matt LaCosse. We all know didn't go well.

Then came the infamous 2020 draft of Asiasi and Keene. Ugh, just a remarkable misevaluation of 3rd round talent. Finally BB had no choice but to shell out big FA money for Henry. Of course he also did the same for Jonnu Smith, and we all endured that saga.

Obviously you can't nail every need through the draft. But TE is just one of several examples where we misfired in the draft AND were inefficient in FA signings.

 

[Garshaparra]

BB had a massive amount of premium talent get old, expensive, retire, injured or leave all in a short time. It was unavoidable IMO that the talent level on the roster was going to crumble. That it happened disproportionately to the offense is unfortunate. But if your expectations are a quality “QB, OT, X/Y WR and TE1” all coming through the draft in a 5 year span (while also hitting on non premium positions and defense presumably), you’re going to be very disappointed in the future. It’s hard to find 2 of those things in a 5 year span let alone all of them.

The draft is half the story, but not trying to draft for considerable need is just as much of an indictment in the failure. Does it seem better that BB also did not succeed at finding a quality QB, OT, X or Y WR via free agency or trades in that same timeframe (Henry was a hit; Trent Brown The Sequel was not). I'm not expecting a team to be entirely built by draft, but missing on the bulk of acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball for 4+ years resulted in his firing, and left a bare cupboard.

We can take the Texans as an example. They've turned nearly their entire starting offense in 3 years:

2024
Schultz TE (FA)
Mixon RB (FA)
Diggs WR (trade)

2023
Stroud QB (R1)
Scruggs C (R2)
Dell WR (R3)
Hutchinson WR (R6)
Mason G (FA)

2022
Green LG (R1)

...while also drafting heir apparents at OT (Fisher, R2) and TE (Stover, R3) this year. One could point out Hutchinson is only starting because Nico Collins is on IR, but Collins was a 2021 draft hit. I'm not at all saying what Houston did was easy. They've suffered through a dearth of QB talent and poor seasons, but it is possible.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

Tight End is a position that shines a light on the draft and personnel misfires over the past few years. We all knew that Gronk was wavering about playing coming off the 2018 season. He should have made a decision before the 2019 draft, but he didn't. Still, BB knew TE was going to be a need, if not that season, certainly the next.

It was a mediocre draft for TE talent though: Hockenson, Fant (no chance at those 2 obviously), Irv Smith, Sample, Oliver, Knox. And of course he didn't draft any of them, choosing to sign the corpse of Ben Watson to pair with Matt LaCosse. We all know didn't go well.

Then came the infamous 2020 draft of Asiasi and Keene. Ugh, just a remarkable misevaluation of 3rd round talent. Finally BB had no choice but to shell out big FA money for Henry. Of course he also did the same for Jonnu Smith, and we all endured that saga.

Obviously you can't nail every need through the draft. But TE is just one of several examples where we misfired in the draft AND were inefficient in FA signings.

He signed Hunter Henry who is arguably a top 10 (certainly top 12) TE in the league.

Would it be nice to have LaPorta or Hockenson? Sure. But good TE’s aren’t coming out of college often, the early round ones are usually duds and the hit rate on low round ones is miserably low.

I fail to see any issue, beyond taking a few more long shot late round gambles, with his handling of TE.

 

[8slim]

He signed Hunter Henry who is arguably a top 10 (certainly top 12) TE in the league.

Would it be nice to have LaPorta or Hockenson? Sure. But good TE’s aren’t coming out of college often, the early round ones are usually duds and the hit rate on low round ones is miserably low.

I fail to see any issue, beyond taking a few more long shot late round gambles, with his handling of TE.

I'm aware of the Henry signing. But it took a year of Watson, a year of two utter flops of 3rd round draft picks, and a flop with Jonnu Smith. So that's not a particularly great batting average.

I'm no expert, but to me the inability to put together a coherent plan to replace Gronk was my first indication that maybe the good ol' days were coming to an end. I mean Bill tried to trade Gronk, it's not like he didn't know there would come a day he'd need to find a new starting TE.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I'm aware of the Henry signing. But it took a year of Watson, a year of two utter flops of 3rd round draft picks, and a flop with Jonnu Smith. So that's not a particularly great batting average.

I'm no expert, but to me the inability to put together a coherent plan to replace Gronk was my first indication that maybe the good ol' days were coming to an end. I mean Bill tried to trade Gronk, it's not like he didn't know there would come a day he'd need to find a new starting TE.

I mean this is a silly high standard.... they had an entire TWO YEARS (2019, 2020) of not having an above average TE? Even Jonnu, that wasn't personnel, it was execution given Jonnu ended up with top 15 TE production in ATL as soon as we traded him. They whiffed on some midrounders... it happens, but TE is about as far from an indictment of the FO as you can get.... WR and OT are where they really really struggled.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

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I mean this is a silly high standard.... they had an entire TWO YEARS (2019, 2020) of not having an above average TE? Even Jonnu, that wasn't personnel, it was execution given Jonnu ended up with top 15 TE production in ATL as soon as we traded him. They whiffed on some midrounders... it happens, but TE is about as far from an indictment of the FO as you can get.... WR and OT are where they really really struggled.

Did they really struggle at OT though? I think it’s more of a lack of investment than struggling to find guys. The RT disaster last year was kind of flukey IMO. BB did very little between Wynn and Brown to find a LT which is a failing certainly but I don’t know that they really struggled since the level of investment was so low

WR is a different story although JJSS and Harry are really the big misses, Thornton a miss although I don’t count on 2nd rounders to be definite starters. Parker (not the braindead extension) and Agholor seemed fine for acquisition cost albeit not solutions to their problems. Bourne and Douglas have exceeded expectations. Meyers was great for an UDFA. They needed one more guy, someone who was a difference maker. Too much investment in complementary guys. Would have liked to see more swings at guys who could be more than just “low end 2” types