That Team from Washington Week

BernieRicoBoomer

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They may have DeSean Jackson back for the game, but may be without their top 3 corners...Culliver, Hall and Breeland. I'll be at the game so let's make it a good one.
 

loshjott

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Ryan Kerrigan broke his hand 8 days ago and had surgery, but was at practice today (no injury report yet, of course).  Other news on DC's walking wounded here.
 

nattysez

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Tony C

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nattysez said:
 
I think we can expect to see an offensive game plan exactly the opposite of the plan v. the Jets:
 
 
 
 
Also, this:
 
 
 
 
Sure. But they also have 3 injured CBs. I suppose it depends on those CBs' individual/collective status on Sunday, but sure does seem there'll be some holes to exploit there, as well.
 
By the way, has the controversy over their nickname gone away? Seems to be back to being widely used without comment.
 

axx

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For some reason I thought Cousins was more in the average range this year. He's been worse than that, 23rd in passer rating. Tough to see a Skins upset without Cousins having a big day.
 

Stitch01

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Pats lose this game virtually never, only question is if its a murder or they just sleepwalk to a ten point win
 

Ed Hillel

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I'm hoping nobody gets injured. This game is going to be a massacre.
 

loshjott

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axx said:
For some reason I thought Cousins was more in the average range this year. He's been worse than that, 23rd in passer rating. Tough to see a Skins upset without Cousins having a big day.
The picks are killing him and driving down the rating. He's like Fitz without the mobility and Harvard pedigree.
 

Pandemonium67

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This should be the game in which BB starts prepping for January by making sure all the backups get plenty of playing time. Keep younger guys (used to the shorter college schedule) from getting worn out, reduce the chance of valuable guys from getting injured (that's you, Gronk), and get the backups some reps in case they become the next man up in the months ahead. Even Garapolo.
 
They'll still win by 30. 
 

dcmissle

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The afternoon drive here was interesting. I've never heard an opponent talked about in such glowing terms. By the Washington players. And it wasn't In terms that reflected intimidation. It was more a clear eye recognition that they have to do every single little thing right to have a shot.

Here's the deal. Yes, the Pats are good for one head scratcher a year, often at home. But it may be perfect matchup-wise, and the Pats simply can't afford to kick away a game like this one this season and they damn well know it.
 

DJnVa

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Pats opening as 12.5 point favorites and it moved to 14 already.
 

nattysez

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Pandemonium67 said:
This should be the game in which BB starts prepping for January by making sure all the backups get plenty of playing time. Keep younger guys (used to the shorter college schedule) from getting worn out, reduce the chance of valuable guys from getting injured (that's you, Gronk), and get the backups some reps in case they become the next man up in the months ahead. Even Garapolo.
 
They'll still win by 30. 
 
If Belichick does this, I'm pretty sure it'll be the first time he's ever done so. I wouldn't count on it.
 

soxhop411

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wait.. what?
 
Jane McManusVerified account ‏@janesports  19m19 minutes ago
Oh great, the Society Opposed to Taking Yo Panties Off is planning massive protest at next Washington game.
 

SumnerH

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soxhop411 said:
wait.. what?
 
Jane McManusVerified account ‏@janesports  19m19 minutes ago
Oh great, the Society Opposed to Taking Yo Panties Off is planning massive protest at next Washington game.
 
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/90273-federal-judge-us-can-be-indian-giversredskins-not-trademarked/?p=6311308 (for the edification of others)
 
From Washington's court filing:
 
 
The PTO has registered hundreds if not thousands of marks that the Team believes are racist, or misogynistic, vulgar, or otherwise offensive. By way of example only, the following marks are registered today: TAKE YO PANTIES OFF clothing.....
 
 
And a million other hilarious trademarks.
 

soxhop411

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djbayko said:
The funny part is that this was posted by soxhop in the other thread earlier today. Did he read it?
No what I was saying "what" about is the protest. Not the name. Are they really going to protest?
 

DJnVa

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I really don't know where to put this, but it's too ridiculous not to mention.
 
According to ESPN's QBR metric:
 
This game by Brady: 26-38, 356 yards, 4/0 TD/INT
 
was not as good as
 
this game by Rodgers: 14-22, 77 yards, 0/0 TD/INT
 

PedroKsBambino

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DrewDawg said:
I really don't know where to put this, but it's too ridiculous not to mention.
 
According to ESPN's QBR metric:
 
This game by Brady: 26-38, 356 yards, 4/0 TD/INT
 
was not as good as
 
this game by Rodgers: 14-22, 77 yards, 0/0 TD/INT
 
Exponent is willing to testify about the accuracy of those calculations---just write them a check.
 

Cellar-Door

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DrewDawg said:
I really don't know where to put this, but it's too ridiculous not to mention.
 
According to ESPN's QBR metric:
 
This game by Brady: 26-38, 356 yards, 4/0 TD/INT
 
was not as good as
 
this game by Rodgers: 14-22, 77 yards, 0/0 TD/INT
As far as I can tell Rodgers is getting a ton of credit for his 2 rushes for 31 yards, for the lots of penalties on DEN, and the quality of the defense.
Of course if the point of QBR is to measure his impact on his team winning, most of those were basically useless plays a few offsides drawn in a blowout is pretty pointless.
 

BaseballJones

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DrewDawg said:
I really don't know where to put this, but it's too ridiculous not to mention.
 
According to ESPN's QBR metric:
 
This game by Brady: 26-38, 356 yards, 4/0 TD/INT
 
was not as good as
 
this game by Rodgers: 14-22, 77 yards, 0/0 TD/INT
 
It's beyond ridiculous.  At some point ESPN needs to look at their metric and conclude it's a complete pile of crap.  Right?
 

Super Nomario

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DrewDawg said:
I really don't know where to put this, but it's too ridiculous not to mention.
 
According to ESPN's QBR metric:
 
This game by Brady: 26-38, 356 yards, 4/0 TD/INT
 
was not as good as
 
this game by Rodgers: 14-22, 77 yards, 0/0 TD/INT
One thing that factors in here: QBR discounts YAC, and all of Brady's TDs were YAC-y. The 47-yard TD pass to Gronk was like a four-yard pass.
 
Still seems cray cray.
 

Stitch01

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Yup, that's the issue.  Probably time to reassess some of the weightings built into that stat if they want it to measure actual effectiveness at playing NFL quarterback.
 

TomRicardo

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BaseballJones said:
 
It's beyond ridiculous.  At some point ESPN needs to look at their metric and conclude it's a complete pile of crap.  Right?
 
 

pokey_reese

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I mean, I get the criticism, but it's a little like DIPS theory, in that they deliberately don't want to give Brady credit for the YAC (which I don't think is totally wrong of them, Gronk and Edelman earn those yards), and conversely a QB shouldn't be punished for not having good weapons around him. Its the same for overrating the rushing by a QB (which I don't totally agree with), but they are basically saying, here are offensive contributions directly made by the QB, as opposed to made possible by the QB.
 
I think it is a flawed stat for sure, and this is a great example of how it fails some outlier/robustness tests, but I think that some of the concepts are sound, if poorly executed.
 

PedroKsBambino

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pokey_reese said:
I mean, I get the criticism, but it's a little like DIPS theory, in that they deliberately don't want to give Brady credit for the YAC (which I don't think is totally wrong of them, Gronk and Edelman earn those yards), and conversely a QB shouldn't be punished for not having good weapons around him. Its the same for overrating the rushing by a QB (which I don't totally agree with), but they are basically saying, here are offensive contributions directly made by the QB, as opposed to made possible by the QB.
 
I think it is a flawed stat for sure, and this is a great example of how it fails some outlier/robustness tests, but I think that some of the concepts are sound, if poorly executed.
 
That discounts the ability to recognize which player is open enough to get YAC, though.  I think that's a major flaw; Brady has multiple reads each play.
 

Devizier

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Not all 5-yard passes are alike. A check down to a stationary running back after deep routes are not open is a lot different from a designed slant where the QB catches the receiver in stride.
 

JGray38

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But you can argue that a good QB will make a better pass that allows for more YAC- not throwing too far off target, hitting runners in stride, as well as recognizing who is open. This stat discounts that, and I think those are real abilities.
 

Super Nomario

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JGray38 said:
But you can argue that a good QB will make a better pass that allows for more YAC- not throwing too far off target, hitting runners in stride, as well as recognizing who is open. This stat discounts that, and I think those are real abilities.
This is true. In QBR's defense, whether that becomes 10-15 yards of YAC or 40 yards of YAC wouldn't seem to have much to do with the QB. In general, I don't take QBR seriously, because it's a black box and I don't find it has more merit than non-black-box options like ANY/A.
 

tims4wins

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Super Nomario said:
This is true. In QBR's defense, whether that becomes 10-15 yards of YAC or 40 yards of YAC wouldn't seem to have much to do with the QB. In general, I don't take QBR seriously, because it's a black box and I don't find it has more merit than non-black-box options like ANY/A.
 
Maybe the YAC has everything to do with the QB, though. On some plays, sure, it will be a one man effort to break tackles, make people miss, beat them with speed down the field, whatever. But there are plenty of plays where many NFL JAGs could just as easily gain the yardage because it is a great play design, great throw by the QB, awful defense, whatever. One example that comes to mind is the Welker 99 yard TD at Miami a few years ago. After he caught it he basically just had to outrun the defense. There was no special effort made by the WR on that play; the play was possible because of a perfect throw by Brady.
 

BrazilianSoxFan

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Would yards until first contact be a better measure of QB play? It would still include plays where the WR completely jukes the defense, but would be better than completely including or removing YAC. No idea if it's available, though.
 

Curtis Pride

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Here's a reason I'm skeptical of QBR:
 
4 of the top 5: (rank in passer rating, comp%, ANY/A)
1. Carson Palmer (3, 15, 1)
2. Aaron Rodgers (2, 9, 5)
4. Andy Dalton (4, 11, 3)
5. Tom Brady (1, 6, 2)
 
Those four look like they belong up there, right? So who's third?
 
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick (20, 24, 16)
 
Perhaps ESPN is counting Sack%:
 
1. Fitzpatrick 1.8
5. Dalton 3.8
7. Palmer 4.1
20. Brady 5.9
22. Rodgers 6.4
 
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2015/passing.htm
 

Super Nomario

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tims4wins said:
 
Maybe the YAC has everything to do with the QB, though. On some plays, sure, it will be a one man effort to break tackles, make people miss, beat them with speed down the field, whatever. But there are plenty of plays where many NFL JAGs could just as easily gain the yardage because it is a great play design, great throw by the QB, awful defense, whatever. One example that comes to mind is the Welker 99 yard TD at Miami a few years ago. After he caught it he basically just had to outrun the defense. There was no special effort made by the WR on that play; the play was possible because of a perfect throw by Brady.
Sure, but that play is going to score well in an air-yards-based system because it did travel pretty far in the air.
 
Also in that case, that the play was a 99-yarder had a lot to do with field position. That throw would have resulted in a touchdown from 40 or 50 or 60 yards out - it was a 99-yarder because they were on the 1. You can also imagine (SSF binkie) Sean Smith playing that ball better and not falling down and making the tackle for a 45-yard gain instead of a 99-yarder.
 
I'm sort of playing's devil's advocate here - QBR isn't something I ever look at. I do think the question as to how much credit to assign the QB for YAC is an interesting one, and one without a clear answer.
 

rodderick

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The thing I'll say about QBR is that it's absolutely laughable that they put sacks 100% on the quarterback, while giving him zero credit for reading a defense, finding the open man and getting him the ball early and in a good position to get YAC.
 
If you consistently get the ball to open receivers, a lot of your yardage will be the result of YAC. Any metric that rewards QBs for repeatedly throwing into tight coverage, or takes "air yards" into account, as if throwing the ball far has anything to do with good quarterbacking, is garbage.
 

DJnVa

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Top YAC QBs this season by yardage (7 or more games):
 
Rivers, Brees, Brady--each over 50% of their yards
 
Bottom:
 
Newton, Bortles, Winston--each under 40% of their yards
 

pokey_reese

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This is probably a good enough topic at this point to merit a thread, but I will let others decide that. Really, we should be crowd-sourcing a better QB rating metric.
 
On the YAC discussion specifically, we could just normalize it to meet somewhere in the middle, like xFIP. Figure out what the league average YAC is for passes in say, three buckets of yards in the air (less than 10 yards in the air, 10-20 yards, more than 20 yards, for example), and give the QB credit for the results of his pass relative to that league average. So if the league average YAC (or at this point you could use Y/C, since it will include YAC) on passes that travel less than 10 yards in the air is 4, and Brady averages 8 on those, then sure, he should get credit for 4 'extra' yards, because maybe he is better at making opportunities for his receivers, by calling into plays that create them, or leading the receiver on the run rather than making them stop, etc..
 
Same goes for sacks, since all QBs will face a variety of defenses, so a rate relative to league average (even better if it adjusts for common opponents) would be better than just counting them. However, since we tend to give Brady a lot of credit around here for things that prevent sacks (his super quick release time, understanding of when to throw the ball away, pre-snap setting of protections, etc.), it does make sense to hold the QB mainly responsible.
 

soxhop411

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Phil Perry ‏@PhilAPerry  3m3 minutes ago
All present at Patriots practice except for Tre' Jackson, Marcus Cannon and Jabaal Sheard.
 

C4CRVT

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Christopher Price at EEI put together an article about the Washington team http://itiswhatitis.weei.com/sports/newengland/football/patriots/2015/11/01/5-things-you-have-to-know-about-redskins-up-and-down-season-for-washington-as-it-preps-for-patriots/
 
Football Outsiders Ranks:
 
Offense:
Overall #17- Pass rank #9 (23.1%) Rush Rank #27 (-19.7%)-
As Price suggests Alfred Morris is having a rough go of it so far this year. Pass catching rookie Back Matt Jones has provided a bit more productivity than Morris.
Cousin's ability to throw to multiple options appears to be the strength of their attack. Garcon/Reed/Crowder each have over 30 receptions with Thompson/Grant/ Carrier and Roberts each with 100+ yards and 9-23 receptions. With DeSean Jackson coming back this week, it will be interesting to see how BB/Patricia match up the chess pieces with Washington's offensive attack.
 
Defense:
Overall #22- Pass rank #22 (16.7%) Rush rank #23 (-5.5%)
Breaking it down by receiver type:
WR #1 (-14.4%) WR #2 (58.1%) other WR (2.7%) TE (14.2%) RB (-4.5%)
Not sure who they've faced but it looks like they do a great job on WR#1 and covering RB coming out of the backfield. But they're dumpster fire level bad against WR #2. Unfortunately for them, NE has a lot of weapons and Brady is good at finding them.
 
Special teams rank #13
 
Just win and stay healthy. Looks like Stork and Mason are back practicing this week. Hopefully Cannon's toe will be ready to go later this week.
 

bowiac

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The reason the YAC comparison to DIPS/xFIP doesn't work is because YAC has a much higher correlation year to year than BABIP or HR/FB rate does. The whole point of normalizing those in MLB was because pitchers would regularly be among the best BABIP guys in the league one year and among the worst the next year, and there was little predictability to it going forward. The year to year correlation for YAC for QBs who played at least 10 games over the last few years has been around 0.6 on the other hand (and 0.48 without any games filter).
 
Maybe it's all a credit to the WR, but it doesn't have the same base level of unpredictability as BABIP or HR/FB rates do.
 

nattysez

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Edelman's been added to the injury report.  No bueno (but hopefully not a big deal, as he still had limited participation in practice - same as Dion Lewis).
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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With the Colts fiasco, I would hope that the Pats are being overly cautious with the injury reporting for the time being.  Because of you know, the giant fucking bulls-eye the NFL sees when they look at the Pats.
 

Tony C

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DrewDawg said:
Top YAC QBs this season by yardage (7 or more games):
 
Rivers, Brees, Brady--each over 50% of their yards
 
Bottom:
 
Newton, Bortles, Winston--each under 40% of their yards
 
Just that list of QBs is indicative of the issue with not counting YAC -- high YACs for highly accurate QBs and the reverse in re Newton, Bortles, and Winston -- each of whom are scattershot (at least Newton and Bortles are, I'm just assuming Winston).
 

simplyeric

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Tony C said:
 
Just that list of QBs is indicative of the issue with not counting YAC -- high YACs for highly accurate QBs and the reverse in re Newton, Bortles, and Winston -- each of whom are scattershot (at least Newton and Bortles are, I'm just assuming Winston).
Accuracy, but also decision making and pre-snap adjustments?
If you're inaccurate, that would affect the ability to catch the ball in stride, or even on your feet.
Adjustments: reading the D and calling to shift protection and routes to suit.
Decision making: if the QB fixates on one option or check downs, the D can key in. Mixing it up keeps the D loose because that can't go soft on 2nd or 3rd options.

Oh, and timing: if the QB receivers have good timing, that's counts too. Good timing and good adjustments could even partially make up for some inaccuracy.
 

PedroKsBambino

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The core question is the relationship between YAC and QB skill.  
 
One reason we might doubt it exists is if it were not consistent year to year (the DIPS problem referred to above) 
 
Another reason we might doubt it is if it is the system/WR who generate YAC in whole or in substantial part.   Since starting QBs have a high year to year consistency (e.g. there's limited changing of teams) it's harder to test that part.  If we wanted to, we could look for QBs who changed teams, or teams who changed QBs but kept OCs and at least some WRs, and see if those suggest a strong QB skill or not.  
 
Without doing the math, I'd expect there is a skill and also that the data is noisy enough (and with a small sample) that we have only limited confidence.  But that's just speculation.
 

tims4wins

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I was watching NFL replay of the Cowboys-Hawks game today and there was a play where Dallas was around the Hawks' 10. Cassell threw a swing pass that may have gone for a TD, or at the least a first down and they may have scored a TD instead of settling for 3. Anyway, he led the RB just a bit too far up the field and it was incomplete. I thought of this thread immediately - my first reaction was that Brady or a good QB makes that throw. Hitting the right receiver, at the right time, in stride, is a hugely important skill, and diminishing YAC as a QB skill is simply misguided IMO