To the eye, the 2014 Red Sox seem bad at situational hitting. In the Second Guessers thread for the Texas series, Kiekeredinthehead mentioned that the Sox failed at 2 more hit and runs. From a purely observational stand point, it seems like this year's team is bad at executing plays like hit and runs, making outs on the base paths, and failing to move runners over. At times it seems like they achieve all three in one inning.
I poked around and didn't find any "quick and dirty" way of measuring this kind of stuff. I found no stat, for instance, that measured the success rate of hit and run plays. So I turned to the Baseball-Refrence base running and situational hitting data derived from RetroSheet stats. This isn't really scientific study, but I used data form the 2012, 2013, and 2014 teams seeing that the 2012 team was terrible, the 2013 team was awesome, and the 2014 team is currently at .500.
The first stat I looked at is the "Out-on-Base" stat. This basically looks at how many times a runner is put out making a base running play, such as attempting to advance on a fly ball, attempting to reach another base on a hit, getting doubled up on a line drive, or attempting to advance on passed ball/wild pitch. B-Ref makes clear that this stat does not include caught stealing, pick offs, or force plays. They also measure which base the out was made at too, which is helpful.
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox and Outs on Base ]Stat OOB OOB1 OOB2 OOB3 OOBHM OOB/Gm 2012 Red Sox 51 10 16 11 14 0.315 AL Lg Avg 55 10 17 12 16 0.340 2013 Red Sox 59 5 20 9 25 0.364 AL Lg Avg 52 9 15 12 16 0.321 2014 Red Sox 13 1 5 3 4 0.361 AL Lg Avg 11 1 3 2 4 0.306
These numbers seem consistent from year to year. They are also subject to how many runners a team puts on base. Last year the Red Sox probably put more runners on base than league average, which increases the opportunities to create outs on base. Overall in 2014, the Red Sox are essentially league average overall. They have made more than the average number of outs at 2B, but not by a ton. Clearly, this isn't the culprit for the poor play.
The second stat I could find is the "Productive Out" stat at Baseball-Refernce that was created by Elias and ESPN. This stat measures three circumstances: 1) successful sacrifice for a pitcher with one out; 2) advancing any runner with no outs; and 3) driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning. This stat is limited, but encompasses traditional sacrifices, as well as general runner advancement:
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox Productive Out Percentage ]Stat Productive Out % 2012 Red Sox 32% AL Lg Avg 35% 2013 Red Sox 31% AL Lg Avg 31% 2014 Red Sox 25% AL Lg Avg 32%
This is a bit more helpful. The Red Sox have been far below league average in 'productive outs.' In previous years they were league average, or slightly below, but this year they are 8% below AL average. In fact, they are dead last in the AL in this stat. The Twins are slightly better with a 26% rate.
The third stat I could find is the Baseball-Refernence "Advances" stat. There are two different advancement scenarios: 1) less than 2 outs with a runner on 3rd and the runner scores; and 2) no outs, runner on second and advances.
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox Base Runner Advancement ]Stat less than 2 Outs, 3B, RS 0 outs, 2B, Adv 2012 Red Sox 57% 58% AL Lg Avg 52% 56% 2013 Red Sox 53% 55% AL Lg Avg 51% 54% 2014 Red Sox 47% 41% AL Lg Avg 52% 55%
Once again we have confirmation that the 2014 squad is awful at situational hitting. In the first scenario, the Red Sox are again dead last in the AL. In the second scenario, the Sox are second to last, with only the Rays below them (39% of time they advance in this scenario). Both scenarios are really concerning. In the first, it shows that the Red Sox not only fail to hit with runners on third, but cannot even sacrifice them in. This is more of an approach problem than skill problem. The same is true of the second scenario. In scenario two you can bunt the runner to third, or hit to the right side of the infield and move them over if you fail to get a hit.
When I have more time, I'll dig into the individual player data on this to see if there are repeat offenders to the situational hitting blunders. But what is clear from the stats is that lack of runs (and wins) are not because of giving away outs on the base paths, but from a lack of situational hitting by either getting hits with RISP, or by simply advancing runners in the most advantageous run scoring scenarios.
Does anyone have any better stats that measures this stuff? I'd be interested to see why the approach this year is so different, especially when in previous years the teams were close to league average.
Edit: I updated the OOB chart, which reflects Bradley getting thrown out at home. I also updated the productive outs (lg avg went down one percent), and the base-running advancement stats. Red Sox are still in last in the first scenario and second to last in the second scenario.
I poked around and didn't find any "quick and dirty" way of measuring this kind of stuff. I found no stat, for instance, that measured the success rate of hit and run plays. So I turned to the Baseball-Refrence base running and situational hitting data derived from RetroSheet stats. This isn't really scientific study, but I used data form the 2012, 2013, and 2014 teams seeing that the 2012 team was terrible, the 2013 team was awesome, and the 2014 team is currently at .500.
The first stat I looked at is the "Out-on-Base" stat. This basically looks at how many times a runner is put out making a base running play, such as attempting to advance on a fly ball, attempting to reach another base on a hit, getting doubled up on a line drive, or attempting to advance on passed ball/wild pitch. B-Ref makes clear that this stat does not include caught stealing, pick offs, or force plays. They also measure which base the out was made at too, which is helpful.
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox and Outs on Base ]
These numbers seem consistent from year to year. They are also subject to how many runners a team puts on base. Last year the Red Sox probably put more runners on base than league average, which increases the opportunities to create outs on base. Overall in 2014, the Red Sox are essentially league average overall. They have made more than the average number of outs at 2B, but not by a ton. Clearly, this isn't the culprit for the poor play.
The second stat I could find is the "Productive Out" stat at Baseball-Refernce that was created by Elias and ESPN. This stat measures three circumstances: 1) successful sacrifice for a pitcher with one out; 2) advancing any runner with no outs; and 3) driving in a baserunner with the second out of the inning. This stat is limited, but encompasses traditional sacrifices, as well as general runner advancement:
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox Productive Out Percentage ]
This is a bit more helpful. The Red Sox have been far below league average in 'productive outs.' In previous years they were league average, or slightly below, but this year they are 8% below AL average. In fact, they are dead last in the AL in this stat. The Twins are slightly better with a 26% rate.
The third stat I could find is the Baseball-Refernence "Advances" stat. There are two different advancement scenarios: 1) less than 2 outs with a runner on 3rd and the runner scores; and 2) no outs, runner on second and advances.
[tablegrid= 2014 Red Sox Base Runner Advancement ]
Once again we have confirmation that the 2014 squad is awful at situational hitting. In the first scenario, the Red Sox are again dead last in the AL. In the second scenario, the Sox are second to last, with only the Rays below them (39% of time they advance in this scenario). Both scenarios are really concerning. In the first, it shows that the Red Sox not only fail to hit with runners on third, but cannot even sacrifice them in. This is more of an approach problem than skill problem. The same is true of the second scenario. In scenario two you can bunt the runner to third, or hit to the right side of the infield and move them over if you fail to get a hit.
When I have more time, I'll dig into the individual player data on this to see if there are repeat offenders to the situational hitting blunders. But what is clear from the stats is that lack of runs (and wins) are not because of giving away outs on the base paths, but from a lack of situational hitting by either getting hits with RISP, or by simply advancing runners in the most advantageous run scoring scenarios.
Does anyone have any better stats that measures this stuff? I'd be interested to see why the approach this year is so different, especially when in previous years the teams were close to league average.
Edit: I updated the OOB chart, which reflects Bradley getting thrown out at home. I also updated the productive outs (lg avg went down one percent), and the base-running advancement stats. Red Sox are still in last in the first scenario and second to last in the second scenario.
