The 2017/2018 Boston Celtics Regular season thread

[joe dokes]

I think it depends on the rookie. Rookie Tatum has such a solid NBA-level skill set and feel for the game that he is probably fully capable of holding down a key role on a good team. Rookie Brown, on the other hand, wasn't playing at that same level a year ago - compared to rookie Tatum, he had more projection and less immediate value. Had Crowder, say, suffered a major injury in game 1, it would have been a lot harder for Brown to step in as an immediate contributor than it has been for Tatum to do so this year.

You're right in that Tatum is simply better than Brown at this point in their respective careers. My (less-than-clear) point/hypothesis is that *both* are better than they would have been had they started out with dumpster-fire teams like the Knicks or Suns. And given the nature of the draft, the best draftees dont often go to good teams. (probably not especially earth-shattering, I know. But it jumps out at me with the Celtics, because they are good and they have had high picks).
Its probably hard to disaggregate, but starting out on a good team would seem to maximize or speed up the improvement process.
As a basketball fan, I am somewhat concerned that a skilled player like Porzingis will have an Antoine Walker career arc because his 'formative years' will be spent on inferior teams with lousy teammates.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

You're right in that Tatum is simply better than Brown at this point in their respective careers. My (less-than-clear) point/hypothesis is that *both* are better than they would have been had they started out with dumpster-fire teams like the Knicks or Suns. And given the nature of the draft, the best draftees dont often go to good teams. (probably not especially earth-shattering, I know. But it jumps out at me with the Celtics, because they are good and they have had high picks).
Its probably hard to disaggregate, but starting out on a good team would seem to maximize or speed up the improvement process.
As a basketball fan, I am somewhat concerned that a skilled player like Porzingis will have an Antoine Walker career arc because his 'formative years' will be spent on inferior teams with lousy teammates.

I don't think I agree, at least not entirely. I think whether a young player is better off with a good team or a bad one is going to be very player and situation dependent. One thing that all young players need is minutes, which they will get in abundance on a bad team.

I think Tatum is in a near ideal development situation for him. He's going to play a lot, he's ready to play a lot (and be a legit contributor on a good team), he's got a great coach. For his own personal development, though, the Hayward injury is actually probably a 'plus' for him, as he'd see significantly fewer minutes with a healthy Hayward. Obviously, having Hayward out makes the Celtics considerably worse, but it unlocks a lot of minutes for Tatum in a great situation for him. He's clearly better off playing 30+ minutes on a playoff team than doing so on a bottom feeder. But would he be better playing 15 minutes on the Kyrie/Hayward Celtics than he would be starting on a non-contender? Debatable. It wouldn't have been a BAD situation for him, but he might have been better off getting experience.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I think it depends on the rookie. Rookie Tatum has such a solid NBA-level skill set and feel for the game that he is probably fully capable of holding down a key role on a good team. Rookie Brown, on the other hand, wasn't playing at that same level a year ago - compared to rookie Tatum, he had more projection and less immediate value. Had Crowder, say, suffered a major injury in game 1, it would have been a lot harder for Brown to step in as an immediate contributor than it has been for Tatum to do so this year.

I think you forget that JB was thrust into the starting lineup when Bradley went down last year and contributed.

Not saying that JB is as "NBA-ready" as Tatum but Tatum has the advantage of playing with a more skilled team.

 

[lovegtm]

For his own personal development, though, the Hayward injury is actually probably a 'plus' for him, as he'd see significantly fewer minutes with a healthy Hayward. Obviously, having Hayward out makes the Celtics considerably worse, but it unlocks a lot of minutes for Tatum in a great situation for him. He's clearly better off playing 30+ minutes on a playoff team than doing so on a bottom feeder. But would he be better playing 15 minutes on the Kyrie/Hayward Celtics than he would be starting on a non-contender? Debatable. It wouldn't have been a BAD situation for him, but he might have been better off getting experience.

I agree strongly with this, so doesn't that likely mean that, if Hayward makes a full recovery, and GS doesn't have any big injuries this year and wins the title, the Hayward injury was a huge positive on net for the Cs?
Edit: obviously tons of uncertainties and counterfactuals involved, but it's cool that the silver lining might just be a silver everything.

 

[the moops]

Not saying that JB is as "NBA-ready" as Tatum but Tatum has the advantage of playing with a more skilled team.

I think the more skilled team thing is debatable. Instead of playing with IT, Crowder, Amir, and Olynyk, Tatum has played with Kyrie, Brown, Baynes, and Rozier.

 

[lovegtm]

I think the more skilled team thing is debatable. Instead of playing with IT, Crowder, Amir, and Olynyk, Tatum has played with Kyrie, Brown, Baynes, and Rozier.

Yeah, I think the real story is that Jayson Tatum is freakishly fast at absorbing information and coaching, regardless of who's around him.

 

[slamminsammya]

Yeah, I think the real story is that Jayson Tatum is freakishly fast at absorbing information and coaching, regardless of who's around him.

Is this true? Did you read this somewhere? I am not doubting just genuinely curious.

 

[reggiecleveland]

Probably more likely an overstatement based on a few games. My take is he has advanced skills, and fits in with the group well. At any rate we are debated why he has been so successful thus far. A nice discussion to have.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Probably more likely an overstatement based on a few games. My take is he has advanced skills, and fits in with the group well. At any rate we are debated why he has been so successful thus far. A nice discussion to have.

Agreed.

One thing that really stands out, beyond the surprising smoothness, is the length. It really helps him rebound, get in passing lanes, and reach past people to get his shot to the glass. There's plenty of long guys in the league, but it's nice having one here. And you can't coach length.

 

[lovegtm]

Is this true? Did you read this somewhere? I am not doubting just genuinely curious.

Just my guess from observation, along with overreaction and slight hyperbole.

 

[Sprowl]

Agreed.

One thing that really stands out, beyond the surprising smoothness, is the length. It really helps him rebound, get in passing lanes, and reach past people to get his shot to the glass. There's plenty of long guys in the league, but it's nice having one here. And you can't coach length.

He made a fine block from behind against the Knicks. His defense has been more competent and more intense than I expected.

5 for 11 on 3's is more than acceptable too.

 

[lovegtm]

To elaborate, I used to be in education, and it's very very obvious in that setting when someone absorbs feedback quickly. It's a very rare quality, even among highly intelligent people. It's seems pretty clear that Tatum is getting feedback on parts of his game like pulling the trigger on 3s, and various aspects of defense, and incorporating it very quickly, almost on a game-to-game basis.

Again, this is exuberant overreaction, and there will be setbacks, but I think there's a strong chance that he has the "it" factor with respect to his learning curve.

 

[slamminsammya]

Agreed.

One thing that really stands out, beyond the surprising smoothness, is the length.

As all my past lovers have told me, you can't teach length or smoothness. Theyre all gone now.

 

[lovegtm]

As all my past lovers have told me, you can't teach length or smoothness. Theyre all gone now.

Tatum's game also really works some of the spots that a lot of players avoid.

 

[Sprowl]

As all my past lovers have told me, you can't teach length or smoothness. Theyre all gone now.

You slay them.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I think that the judges were looking for "that's what she said"

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Wow. Tremendous win tonight in a game that looked for a while like it was headed the other way.

The 2-man game between Kyrie and Horford was beautiful to watch, and a great thing to see in just their 5th game together. Without getting into "who's better" comparisons, I don't think we ever saw this kind of thing between IT and Horford. It was just awesome to see Brad send Kyrie and Al in with 0.5 seconds left in the third to run a successful alley-ooo on the inbounds pass.

Semi Ojeleye showed his value tonight for the first time. A couple of great defensive possessions against Giannis. He's going to be a legit NBA role player, if he isn't already.

 

[reggiecleveland]

I didn't get to watch. With the rebounding effort they are at neutral for rebounding, an improvement over the deficit rebounding of last year. Those who have watched most of the games, what do your eyes tell you about the rebounding? My limited observations tell Me Kyrie gets a few, that AI would never get and the center postions is much more physical than last year. Thouhgts?

 

[bigq]

I didn't get to watch. With the rebounding effort they are at neutral for rebounding, an improvement over the deficit rebounding of last year. Those who have watched most of the games, what do your eyes tell you about the rebounding? My limited observations tell Me Kyrie gets a few, that AI would never get and the center postions is much more physical than last year. Thouhgts?

Agree that the center position is much more physical this year. I think Kyrie gets more boards than IT. Plus Brown and Tatum are hustling for rebounds in a way that I don’t recall the Celtics from last year doing. Overall they should be a much better rebounding team this season than last.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Well, they added a plus rebounder in Baynes. They play a lot more length (Brown and Tatum instead of Bradley and Crowder). Smart is a good rebounder for his position and Rozier, who is getting more time this year, is a tremendous one for a short guy.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I didn't get to watch. With the rebounding effort they are at neutral for rebounding, an improvement over the deficit rebounding of last year. Those who have watched most of the games, what do your eyes tell you about the rebounding? My limited observations tell Me Kyrie gets a few, that AI would never get and the center postions is much more physical than last year. Thouhgts?

Team rebounding effort again, just like every game. Tonight was more Brown (10) than Tatum. Al, Rozier, and Baynes behind him. Some nights, it has been Tatum. Basically instead of Al and Bradley having 8 each, you're seeing 4 different guys get ~8 each every night.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

That’s been the first thing to jump out from the stat sheet is the rebounds. It’s just five games, but a huge improvement from the relatively hapless team last season. Hopefully it gets even better once they add Ayton via the Lakers next draft.

 

[schillzilla]

Perhaps someone with the advanced stats can confirm or refute my hypothesis- but I feel like Crowder playing the 4 was a big issue in terms of rebounding. Not to mention IT4 as well as Al at the 5 (who isn’t a great rebounder) was a common combo.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Semi Ojeleye showed his value tonight for the first time. A couple of great defensive possessions against Giannis. He's going to be a legit NBA role player, if he isn't already.

Marcus Smart has incredible hands, like world-class.

Semi has great feet. Feet like his with his size will keep him the NBA for a long time, particularly if he can make 3P shots.

 

[DJnVa]

I just watched the highlights tonight. Good Lord.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Horford is so, so good. Just a really smart, complete player.

Tatum's D is much better than I anticipated it would be this early. He has good spatial instincts, staying with his man while clogging passing lanes with his length. This early in his career, Jaylen often looked lost on D, like the game was moving too fast for him. Which is completely understandable for a young guy, but I haven't seen that at all from Tatum yet. I take that as a very promising sign.

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

Horford is so, so good. Just a really smart, complete player.

Tatum's D is much better than I anticipated it would be this early. He has good spatial instincts, staying with his man while clogging passing lanes with his length. This early in his career, Jaylen often looked lost on D, like the game was moving too fast for him. Which is completely understandable for a young guy, but I haven't seen that at all from Tatum yet. I take that as a very promising sign.

There was a play in the first Q last night that had me extremely excited, despite not being a steal of block or anything. Tatum was following his man as he headed down the baseline and under the hoop without the ball. Ball-handler tried to drive from around 18 feet and got a step on his man. Tatum, despite tracking his man under the hoop in the other direction, was aware of the ball-handler the whole time, knew he could afford to leave his man, and jumped out to help challenge the shot, which ended up badly missing off the glass when the shooter had to adjust.

He followed that up a bit later with the play where he hedged to guard the lane against a penetrator, but read the play perfectly and bounced back out to intercept the kick-out. He has great instincts. Right now his shortcomings on D seem to be more along the lines of getting beat by legit 1v1 NBA moves, but even then his length and recovery keep him competitive most of the time.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

There was a play in the first Q last night that had me extremely excited, despite not being a steal of block or anything. Tatum was following his man as he headed down the baseline and under the hoop without the ball. Ball-handler tried to drive from around 18 feet and got a step on his man. Tatum, despite tracking his man under the hoop in the other direction, was aware of the ball-handler the whole time, knew he could afford to leave his man, and jumped out to help challenge the shot, which ended up badly missing off the glass when the shooter had to adjust.

He followed that up a bit later with the play where he hedged to guard the lane against a penetrator, but read the play perfectly and bounced back out to intercept the kick-out. He has great instincts. Right now his shortcomings on D seem to be more along the lines of getting beat by legit 1v1 NBA moves, but even then his length and recovery keep him competitive most of the time.

Yep, both of those plays (at least I'm pretty sure I'm thinking of the same one in your first example) stood out to me too. He has a good feel for where his man is going, which allows him to peak over and contest the ball handler without losing track of his guy. It's just not stuff you'd expect from a young one-and-done. He also has shown really good timing crashing the glass. Oh, and all the awesome stuff he does on offense is pretty cool too. I liked him as a prospect, but with what he has shown on D, I think his ceiling and floor are much higher than I had anticipated.

 

[slamminsammya]

I am not sure how quickly team rebounding converges, but I am still skeptical after seeing Kanter eat them alive on the boards a few nights ago.

Having said that, Baynes is historically a much superior rebounder to Olynyk, and rebounding basically comes down to who the big boys are down low.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Re: Tatum's D- 165 minutes into his career, but so far, so good.

 

[joe dokes]

I am not sure how quickly team rebounding converges, but I am still skeptical after seeing Kanter eat them alive on the boards a few nights ago.

Having said that, Baynes is historically a much superior rebounder to Olynyk, and rebounding basically comes down to who the big boys are down low.

All things being equal, Baynes is just so much bigger than Olynyk that he'll get more rebounds just because he wont get pushed out of the position he fought to get. And all things aren't equal.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Can we actually expect Tatum to block around a shot a game or is this just a SSS fluke?

Also glad to see Jaylen Brown's steal rate going up. I remember a lot of the concern around him were his low steal/block rates in college. Now if only he could shoot FTs.

 

[Sprowl]

All things being equal, Baynes is just so much bigger than Olynyk that he'll get more rebounds just because he wont get pushed out of the position he fought to get. And all things aren't equal.

In addition to Baynes keeping his position, Baynes' hands are also stronger than Olynyk's: once Aron gets his mitts on a ball, it's his.

 

[chilidawg]

We're 4th in DRR, after being near last last year. DRR against Milwaukee was an insane 95%.

On the flip side Olynyk is 11th in the league in DRR, better than any of our guys.

Takeaway? It's early still.

 

[DourDoerr]

I really like how this team attacks the passing lanes. They're even contesting simple passes beyond the arc and it's paying off. When there's a loose ball, more often than not, the quick hands of either Irving, the Jays, Smart or Rozier come up with the ball.

 

[Sam Ray Not]

Re: Tatum's D- 165 minutes into his career, but so far, so good.

Most of those guys on that chart have played far fewer minutes than Tatum's 165 — some of them less than 40 — which makes it close to worthless.

Though clearly Jordan Bell is the best offensive player in his class, after OG Anunoby.

 

[DourDoerr]

All things being equal, Baynes is just so much bigger than Olynyk that he'll get more rebounds just because he wont get pushed out of the position he fought to get. And all things aren't equal.

I'll second this. He's also tough and doesn't back down which is an element that was missing last season. One of the reasons some folks agitated for getting Bogut last season was to add some toughness. I think Baynes brings the same element and a team can feed off of that.

 

[nighthob]

Most of those guys on that chart have played far fewer minutes than Tatum's 165 — some of them less than 40 — which makes it close to worthless.

I'd say it makes Tatum's rating all the more impressive.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

Most of those guys on that chart have played far fewer minutes than Tatum's 165 — some of them less than 40 — which makes it close to worthless.

Though clearly Jordan Bell is the best offensive player in his class, after OG Anunoby.

Yeah, but I saw it right after posting about how impressed I've been with Tatum's defense so it's usefulness is in how it agrees with me, in chart form.

 

[lovegtm]

This Kyrie sequence at 3:11 is mesmerizing. Two behind the back crossovers, a sort of mini-Shammgod to freeze Maker, crossover, then great look to Horford.

 

[DJnVa]

Celtics have been granted than $8.4 million disabled player exception.

 

[luckiestman]

Celtics have been granted than $8.4 million disabled player exception.

What are the implications?


Who is available, how does this work with trades? Where is nighthob when you need him?

 

[Lazy vs Crazy]

What are the implications?


Who is available, how does this work with trades? Where is nighthob when you need him?

Basically they can sign someone or pick someone up off waivers for up to 8.5 mil, but it can only be a one-year contract (including options).

As for trades, it cannot be combined with a player salary, so basically you'd have to attach it to a pick or existing draft rights in order to use it to trade it for a player. Again, it can only be used to pick up expiring contracts.

The most likely use would be to sign someone that gets bought out later this year. It'll allow us to outbid most teams as not many have enough cap space or salary exceptions to match this.

 

[finnVT]

I think this was mentioned earlier, but If it's used for a trade, it doesn't pro-rate, right? So they can't get a 16m salaried player halfway through the year (even though they'd only be owed 8m at that point)?

 

[nighthob]

No pro-rating of salaries in NBA trades, so they can deal for someone making up to $8.4 million. More likely if someone good gets bought out in February Boston will have a good shot at landing them being able to pay a lot more than the minimum. I’m not sure what the status is on fourth year rookie contracts, because they are pending free agents.

 

[benhogan]

The most likely use would be to sign someone that gets bought out later this year. It'll allow us to outbid most teams as not many have enough cap space or salary exceptions to match this.

Yep. Agree with this. Don't see them doing anything with the DPE anytime soon.

I expect the Celtics to use the DPE after the trade date (between Feb.10 - March 10) for these reasons:

1. Celtics get to play their kids till then and see who develops
2. Celtics get to see if they are relevant and if 1 vet will put them in the running for Eastern Conf crown
3. Celtics can address what type of player (shooter, big, defensive wing, etc) they need and will be one of the few teams with $8.4MM in space to spend
4. More/better players available from tanking teams after the trade deadline.
5. The entire league/agents know the Celtics have the DPE and can use it to discount a buyout of a multi-year contract.
6. Tanking team can open up future cap space by offering a discounted buyout to a vet on a multi-year deal
7. The vet that accepts a discounted upfront buyout will have received 2/3s of their 2017-18 salary, be a free agent at year-end and be part of a winner/playoff team. It could end up being a net positive in income for the vet.

Anyone want to take a stab at guessing which teams will be tanking by February???

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Re: Tatum's D- 165 minutes into his career, but so far, so good.

From the same group, a video on the 1-3-1 zone that Brad employs at the end of games and on baseline OOB. Worth a watch if anyone is interested in some BB technique.

 

[DJnVa]

Just as a hypothetical, because I know it's really, really, really unlikely, but if Hayward is able to come back, there's no penalty for us having used this right? It simply means that it is likely that Hayward is out for the year--us using it doesn't mean that's now locked in right?

And again I know he's likely done. This is just for my edification.

 

[mcpickl]

Just as a hypothetical, because I know it's really, really, really unlikely, but if Hayward is able to come back, there's no penalty for us having used this right? It simply means that it is likely that Hayward is out for the year--us using it doesn't mean that's now locked in right?

And again I know he's likely done. This is just for my edification.

Correct. No penalty.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

A couple of thoughts:

1. Horford is rebounding more this year than last, particularly on the defensive glass. His defensive rebound rate through 6 games is 24.8%, better than his career average of 22% and close to his career season high of 25.0% in his second year. By contrast, his career offenive rebound rate this year would be his career low (4.3%). His last full season with a better rebound rate than he has currently was 2012-13. This could be a small sample size anomaly, but I also wonder if it has to do with the Celtics' team defense - maybe they are not making it as easy on offensive rebounders this year, allowing Horford to rebound more.

2. Kyrie has been a ballhawk in the early going. Right now he is tied with Marcus Smart for second on the team in steal percentage at 3.2% (Rozier leads at 3.5%). Going into this season, his annual steal percentages were 1.8%, 2.3%, 2.2%, 2.2% (first LeBron year), 1.7%, and 1.6%, so this is either a small sample size fluke or a real shift from Cleveland Kyrie to Boston Kyrie. Interestingly, his career box/plus minus numbers are +4.4 (offensive) and -1.5 (defensive). This year he is at +1.6 (offensive) and +2.0 (defensive), both of which are crazy outliers for him (career worst and best, repsectively). I assume a lot of this can be chalked up to sample size or changing team context, although it is somewhat odd that these numbers for Kyrie were basically consistent in his first three (no LeBron) and last three (with LeBron) years in Cleveland.