The 2017/2018 Boston Celtics Regular season thread

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bowiac

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FWIW, while back to backs are bad, teams actually perform better on 1 day's rest than 2+ days (though I have never looked at aggregated rest issues, e.g., the impact of playing every other day for like three weeks or something).
 

moondog80

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I hope you are right but I think Smart is held in pretty high esteem around the league and it only takes one team.

Whlie it's true in many respects that Smart is a smaller version of Artest, here's one thing that Smart has that Artest didn't: sanity. A sane version of Artest probably would have made a lot more money in the NBA.
Another thing Smart has that Artest did not is a career shooting percentage of 35.6%.

His strengths are real but we continue to underestimate just how bad a shooter Smart is. He's not just bad, he's historically bad, and so far this year he is worse than ever. Ron Artest was a far superior shooter.

He is a role player and should be paid accordingly but will likely get more, likely by a poorly run team that will be in the lottery for the duration of his contract.
 
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Erik Hanson's Hook

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Thoughts as I've watched the season progress:

  • Normally this time of year I'm in full Patriots mode. If the C's are decent, like the last couple years, I'll definitely try to catch games during the week. But most of my sports consumption is football. This team has changed that; they are appointment viewing. When Hayward went down, I wanted to throw up, but I am amazed at what I've seen since then.
  • Stevens. I'll try to stem the hyperbole, but this guy is giving Pop a run for his money. Even-keeled, analytically-driven, beautiful blue eyes, and his clearly-mouthed "That's bullshit" to the ref the other night was awesome. He's a born coach. Entering his fifth year (has it really been that long?), I also think he's is getting more "respect" and cache from officials.
  • Kyrie. I don't know what your definition of a superstar is, but he's pretty close. I love watching him break guys down. Hope he's drinking his electrolytes today.
  • Brown/Tatum. Thank heavens for these two. Brown had a play in the 2nd half last night where the shot clock was at 3 or 4 and he drove to the hoop from the top of the key in two dribbles and beat the clock. Tatum's shooting form reminds me of those pitchers who we say can "repeat their delivery". His stroke looks the same all the time. When he puts on 10-15 pounds on an NBA training table and gains the respect from the refs, he's a 20-10 guy with plus defense.
  • I love Smart, but worry that he is getting a bit dinged up early this year, specifically his ankles. Also, looked like he got hit in the balls at one point last night. I hope he can stay healthy. As of now, I'm not sure he's back to 100%. Horford called him the soul of the team, so whatever we think of him, he is important on the court and in the locker room.
  • This has been said, but the only negative to watching this team play has been further regretting GH's injury. Imagine that two-way game between Kyrie and Horford expanded to a 3 man game with swiss army knife Hayward. The bright side is, the injury forced our youth to grow up fast. So next year, instead of the Jays being eased in, they are essentially veterans.
  • I'm thankful for what Crowder did for us, but don't miss him, in terms of the trade. IMO, his foot speed and ups had slowed, possibly due to his knee/ankle injuries. Last year I saw him as kind of a plodder. I don't think his game will age well, and he carries around a lot of weight. We got his peak; the Cavs will get his decline.

Speaking of Cleveland, their current situation is supremely amusing. The roster reminds me of the early 00's Redskins with Bruce Smith and Deion Sanders. Just a bunch of old & slow names. For some tasty Cavs schadenfreude, check out these two threads on Crowder and Kyrie. The beginnings and ends are hilarious. In the start of Crowder's, they're calling him a borderline all-star and actually discussing if he can guard 2's. They talk about how "long" he is, which is the exact opposite of what anyone who has watched him play can see. So I looked up his draft measurements and found that he is so long that he has the same standing reach (8'3) as one Kyrie Irving.

At the end of Kyrie's, they are cursing the fact that they traded him. Also much praise for Stevens in both, who "runs an actual system". They don't seem to think very highly of Lue.

http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/welcome-jae-crowder.48254/

http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/kyrie-irving-celts-problem-now.47440/
 
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DJnVa

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Another thing Smart has that Artest did not is a career shooting percentage of 35.6%.
Smart's shooting this year (before last night):

0 to 3': shooting .400 this year versus .507 career
3' to 10': shooting ..267 this year versus .342 career and .396 last year
10' to 16': shooting .333 this year versus .372 career--and he's taking about 45% more shots at this range than his career norms.
16' out to 3 pointer: shooting .000 this year versus .306 career
3 pointers: .297 this year versus .291 career

Here's an interesting number: only 20% of his 2 point baskets this year have been assisted--career is around 40%. The numbers by distance are all very small sample size. That % of FGs that are assisted on though seems like an issue. Too many late in shot clock situations?
 

finnVT

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Can start around here on that Kyrie thread for trade reactions: http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/kyrie-irving-celts-problem-now.47440/page-657

Honestly, though, their reaction feels pretty similar to the reaction around here. When people were assuming that pick would be top-3, they (and many here) felt like the Cavs got a good deal. With Brooklyn looking like they may be not be one of the 5 worst teams in the league, that shifts things quite a bit.

If it were Irving for a healthy IT + top 3 pick, I think Kyrie's play has convinced me it was still worth it. But part of why it feels crazy now is that the deal looks more like damaged IT + 5-10 pick, which is a HUGE step down in value.
 

nighthob

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He is a role player and should be paid accordingly but will likely get more, likely by a poorly run team that will be in the lottery for the duration of his contract.
Nah, not when there are guys that can shoot, like Robert Covington, out there.
 

lovegtm

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If it were Irving for a healthy IT + top 3 pick, I think Kyrie's play has convinced me it was still worth it. But part of why it feels crazy now is that the deal looks more like damaged IT + 5-10 pick, which is a HUGE step down in value.
IT's health isn't a huge factor in the trade evaluation though, because the Celtics were never resigning him at a price he wanted. I was pretty sure the writing was on the wall after the Wizards series last year where he was completely exposed defensively. If I could see that, Brad and Danny *definitely* could.

We're seeing now how big a deal it is to have a point guard who has some length and can switch a bit without it being a complete crisis: it's a positive chain reaction through the entire defense.

Given all that, I think the Celtics probably thought that the Nets pick was likely to be 5-10, but were totally fine if it ended up higher.
 

DJnVa

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http://realcavsfans.com/community/index.php?threads/kyrie-irving-celts-problem-now.47440/page-657

From that thread:

--I can tell Jae is just like wtf is my life now.

--I am worried that this trade with the Celtics is going to be remembered as a historic disaster.

--This should go to show how important coaching, culture, system, and forming an actual game plan matters towards sustained winning and everyone having ample buy-in. Sometimes it's not enough to just say "look over there, that's the best player in the world; now be happy."
 

JakeRae

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Another thing Smart has that Artest did not is a career shooting percentage of 35.6%.

His strengths are real but we continue to underestimate just how bad a shooter Smart is. He's not just bad, he's historically bad, and so far this year he is worse than ever. Ron Artest was a far superior shooter.

He is a role player and should be paid accordingly but will likely get more, likely by a poorly run team that will be in the lottery for the duration of his contract.
I don't see anyone underestimating just how bad a shooter he is. He is a terrible shooter. He's also a good player despite that. The fact that he is a terrible shooter and will be a RFA probably means no one is going to offer him a contract in RFA this off-season.

You keep asserting that a bad team will throw stupid money at Smart. It's less clear who you think that team will be. Going into next year, only 14 teams project to have over $10 million in easy to create cap space. I'll subtract Houston, New Orleans, Utah, and Orlando as teams that are highly unlikely to actually walk away from their expiring talent to be players in free agency. (Utah is the closest call here since Favors is not a must keep player.)

That leaves just 10 teams. Those are the Knicks, Pacers, Lakers, Sixers, Bulls, Mavs, Hawks, Nets, Suns, and Kings with space.

The Lakers and Sixers are definitely hunting bigger signings and neither is going to throw huge money at Smart anyway. The Mavs are a well run franchise and, considering that they wouldn't commit to Noel, are unlikely to commit to Smart. The Hawks are another good franchise unlikely to do something stupid. The Nets look like they fit this bill too now and are probably looking to maintain flexibility until the contracts they took on this off-season for assets expire in a year.

That leaves the Knicks, Pacers, Bulls, Suns, and Kings. The Suns are a mess and need a PG, so they are a real option. The Kings have money to spend but a silly offer to Smart would take basically all of it. The Bulls have a ton of money but I think they are another year or two of tanking away from trying to start actually building again. The Pacers and Knicks could both get to a Max of about $15 million in cap space, but both are likely to be trying to add talent to help them get to or compete in the playoffs.

The real options for a crazy offer seem to be limited to the Kings, Suns, and maybe the Bulls. The Knicks and Pacers are two more teams that could extend an offer that would force Danny to think about whether it is worth matching, but neither can afford to dramatically overpay.
 

DJnVa

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The Mavs are a well run franchise and, considering that they wouldn't commit to Noel, are unlikely to commit to Smart
You can't compare Noel and Smart. Smart can help a winning team. A well-run team is a team that will be able to see his value beyond the shooting.
 

Imbricus

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Anyone see this? ESPN's BPI now predicts Celts will win 60 games this year. Also, Cleveland not expected to get to 50 wins. I'll take the under on Celts winning 60 games, but it would be great if they could do that, sans Hayward.
 

moondog80

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I don't see anyone underestimating just how bad a shooter he is. He is a terrible shooter.
I have seen Smart compared to, off the top my head, Ron Artest, Jason Kidd, and Dennis Johnson. All three are bad comparisons because while they were all bad shooters, none were ever close to as bad as Smart.


This article is from the 2016 season:
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2016/03/28/marcus-smart-by-the-numbers

This is from 538 after the 2017 season:
Marcus Smart was not the worst 3-point shooter in the league this season. But he was the worst 3-point shooter who routinely took a lot of threes. Smart took 4.2 3-pointers per game in 2016-17 and made 28.3 percent of them. Only two players in the 3-point era have taken four or more 3-pointers per game and shot a worse percentage than Smart did this season: Mookie Blaylock in 1997-98 and Latrell Sprewell in 1994-95. And it’s not like Smart was launching nothing but bad shots, either — 3.1 of his 3s per game came on spot-ups, which are usually high-quality looks. But Smart shot 31.2 percent on those.
I realize that you are not making the case that Smart is a good shooter, nor is anyone else. But even saying that he is terrible understates it. Given his position and shot frequency, he is the worst in the league at shooting, dead fucking last. Maybe the worst ever. That alone does not make him unworthy of a healthy deal in free agency, but it sure is a pretty big strike against him. And given the history of role plays on high profile teams getting overpaid in FA, and the Celtics having one of the sharper front offices out there, my money is one someone paying him more that Ainge and Zaren think he is worth. We already know that they are not willing to pay him what Smart's agent thinks he is worth.
 

DJnVa

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Anyone see this? ESPN's BPI now predicts Celts will win 60 games this year. Also, Cleveland not expected to get to 50 wins. I'll take the under on Celts winning 60 games, but it would be great if they could do that, sans Hayward.
From that piece:

Even after Gordon Hayward endured that gruesome injury on opening night, BPI sees the Celtics as the overwhelming favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals, giving them a 62.8 percent chance to make it the Finals and a 21.7 percent chance to win it all. The Celtics are currently projected to go 60-22, which is the second-best projected record in the league. The strength of their schedule so far is tied for 15th -- right in the middle -- so it's not as if they've had an easy slate of games. Going forward, they are tied for fourth-easiest strength of schedule remaining.
 

jmm57

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I remember him getting hit in the Atlanta game, it was enough that there were game thread comments. Looks like this stems back to that.

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Al Horford will miss tonight’s game after entering the NBA’s concussion protocol. Horford’s first symptoms linking him to a possible concussion occurred this morning. Initially struck in the head on a foul called in the second quarter of Boston’s Nov. 6 contest at Atlanta.
12:48 PM · Nov 8, 2017
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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Didn't he miss like a month last year with a concussion?

This sucks but I'm real proud of the team for following through on the protocol and not sweeping this under the rug.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not the worst game to have to go small anyway. Worried a bit about Baynes covering Lopez on the perimeter but this shouldn't kill them with Morris and Theis providing solid D and acceptable O.
 

DourDoerr

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Has there been any explanation for why the C's run a Smart iso at the end of quarters? Years ago, Pierce did these plays and it could be brutal to watch at times. With Smart, it's a whole other level of terrible. I think he finally hit a 3 the other night as the horn sounded and that was the first time I remembered a positive outcome. I'm surprised Stevens keeps running that play.
 

JCizzle

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I remember him getting hit in the Atlanta game, it was enough that there were game thread comments. Looks like this stems back to that.

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Al Horford will miss tonight’s game after entering the NBA’s concussion protocol. Horford’s first symptoms linking him to a possible concussion occurred this morning. Initially struck in the head on a foul called in the second quarter of Boston’s Nov. 6 contest at Atlanta.
12:48 PM · Nov 8, 2017
I think Jaylen likely got one too during the OKC game due to the absolutely reckless hit from Westbrook. It seems like the Cs have gotten a disproportionate number of hits to the head in the last few games - I feel like a number of them should have received either ejections or flagrants.
 
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slamminsammya

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The end of quarter thing got me thinking. How much is the extra possession worth? Just back of the envelope it seems like the numbers would favor taking a bad shot but ensuring its the last shot over taking an open shot that leaves an opportunity for the other team to score. Anyone have thoughts or references on this?
 

The Social Chair

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Danny Ainge told @985TheSportsHub Al Horford's concussion isn't as bad as last year (when he missed 9 games), but they're being cautious with his minor symptoms. "They're not bad...we're keeping close tabs on it." No timetable for his return. Hopefully soon.


Danny Ainge told @985TheSportsHub Jayson Tatum had X-rays on injured ankle. No fractures or breaks. "He just has, we're hoping, a soft tissue injury in the ankle joint, which sometimes can take a while. We'll have a better feel of that when we get the images back today."
 

OurF'ingCity

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Obviously there is zero incentive to rush either of them back, but from a selfish fan perspective I hope they are both healthy for the game a week from now against the Warriors in Boston since that has the makings of a great game if everyone on both sides is healthy (excluding Hayward, of course).
 

Saints Rest

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It is amazing how little the consensus was for any contributions from the Celtics bench this year, yet here we are with Baynes, Semi, Rozier, and Theis playing critical minutes with big contributions on this 10 game winning streak.
Kyrie has a ton of skill but this team one because they have a bunch of dogs; Rozier, Baynes, Theis, Smart, Brown; just a gritty win based on hustle and toughness.
These quotes from the game thread made me want to compare last year's team to this one.

1 -- IT4 vs Kyrie. Push at worst on the offensive end. Looks to be an improvement on the D end.
2 -- AB vs JB. Slight advantage to 2016.
3 -- Jae vs JT. Push for now? or slight advantage to 2016?
4 -- Al vs Al. Adv to 2017 as Al has taken his game up a level.
5 -- Amir vs Aron. Adv to 2017

Bench:
Marcus B vs Marcus B. Push.
Jerebko vs Marcus M. Adv to 2017
Terry vs Terry. Push or Adv to 2017 as TR looks a bit better this year (or at least has taken up where he left off in playoffs).
Zeller vs Theis. Adv to 2017
GG vs Semi. They both seem to have similar lack of fear for driving out of control to the hoop. GG is better as a shooter, but Semi looks to be much better on D.
Young vs Larkin. Adv to 2017
 

joe dokes

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These quotes from the game thread made me want to compare last year's team to this one.

1 -- IT4 vs Kyrie. Push at worst on the offensive end. Looks to be an improvement on the D end.
2 -- AB vs JB. Slight advantage to 2016.
3 -- Jae vs JT. Push for now? or slight advantage to 2016?
4 -- Al vs Al. Adv to 2017 as Al has taken his game up a level.
5 -- Amir vs Aron. Adv to 2017

Bench:
Marcus B vs Marcus B. Push.
Jerebko vs Marcus M. Adv to 2017
Terry vs Terry. Push or Adv to 2017 as TR looks a bit better this year (or at least has taken up where he left off in playoffs).
Zeller vs Theis. Adv to 2017
GG vs Semi. They both seem to have similar lack of fear for driving out of control to the hoop. GG is better as a shooter, but Semi looks to be much better on D.
Young vs Larkin. Adv to 2017

nothing disagreaable here, but Olynyk has to be in there somewhere?
 

nighthob

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I think Olynyk to Theiss would be a better comp as Zeller was the end of Boston's big rotation.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Has there been any explanation for why the C's run a Smart iso at the end of quarters? Years ago, Pierce did these plays and it could be brutal to watch at times. With Smart, it's a whole other level of terrible. I think he finally hit a 3 the other night as the horn sounded and that was the first time I remembered a positive outcome. I'm surprised Stevens keeps running that play.
It's about shot creation and creating value in the possession by not allowing the opponent a FGA. Using motion in these end of quarter possessions does not allow you to properly manage the clock as the set generates the shot when it becomes available within the rhythm of the offense. You can execute it perfectly, score 2 points, and still give the opponent time to create a shot or worse, make a 3-point shot. It is as much about protecting your defense against transition and a quick hitter in these instances. All the Pierce iso-haters should have come to a realization of its value during that year and a half we had nobody to create shots in the halfcourt pre-Isaiah.
 

DJnVa

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Kyrie has a ton of skill but this team one because they have a bunch of dogs; Rozier, Baynes, Theis, Smart, Brown; just a gritty win based on hustle and toughness.
Likely the first time I've seen someone called a "dog" in regards to their play and it was a good thing.
 

Eddie Jurak

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I think Olynyk to Theiss would be a better comp as Zeller was the end of Boston's big rotation.
Theiss had an upfake/slow drive from the 3 point line that was reminiscent of Olynyk. Although Theiss drove directly to the bucket where Olynyks would have taken a more east-west type of path.
 

DJnVa

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Celtics are first team in NBA history (outside of initial season) to have 10 game winning streak that have at least 6 rookies play in at least 1 game during that stretch.
 

Saints Rest

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I think Olynyk to Theiss would be a better comp as Zeller was the end of Boston's big rotation.
Fair. I probably should have compared Morris to Olynyk and then compared Theis to Jerebko, but that's not ideal either.

Looking at the overall comparison though, it's impressive how much more height/length there typically is on the floor at any one time this year. The starting guards are roughly 12" taller, combined, this year than last.
 

DJnVa

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Loyko tweeted out a stat that Tatum is on 100th percentile in NBA at drawing fouls.
 

sezwho

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I wonder if that means he has had no symptoms today and if that continues the next few hours, he's good to go.
Concussion responses seem incredibly variable so I'm grateful for progress. They should be conservative both for Al's and the C's sake

The way this team is currently playing, I do wonder if Horford's minutes are hardest to replace. Marcus Morris is still rounding into shape, Yabu looks headed to Portland, and how many more minutes could Theis and Aron play?
 

JCizzle

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I hope they are taking it extremely conservative with his return. No point to rush someone back in November.
 

Marciano490

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I really love this team. I want them to win it all this year and next year and next year too, and it wouldn't totally shock me if they get there.
 

Reverend

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Only Atlanta has scored more than 96 against them since the opening two losses.

And the C’s won that game anyway.
 

DourDoerr

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It's about shot creation and creating value in the possession by not allowing the opponent a FGA. Using motion in these end of quarter possessions does not allow you to properly manage the clock as the set generates the shot when it becomes available within the rhythm of the offense. You can execute it perfectly, score 2 points, and still give the opponent time to create a shot or worse, make a 3-point shot. It is as much about protecting your defense against transition and a quick hitter in these instances. All the Pierce iso-haters should have come to a realization of its value during that year and a half we had nobody to create shots in the halfcourt pre-Isaiah.
Thanks but I knew this already. I was referring more to why have Smart execute the iso. It's one thing to have Paul Pierce creating - he's a threat to pop a shot or drive. Smart can't shoot from outside and his drives can get out of control quickly. I'd rather have Rozier take the ball.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Thanks but I knew this already. I was referring more to why have Smart execute the iso. It's one thing to have Paul Pierce creating - he's a threat to pop a shot or drive. Smart can't shoot from outside and his drives can get out of control quickly. I'd rather have Rozier take the ball.
Rozier's inability to finish or facilitate makes that problematic, though.

I notice that on late quarter Smart the Celtics often try to run some kind of play late in the clock, so it isn't just Smart doing his thing.

We're not there yet, but I imagine most of these will eventually go to Tatum.
 

Strike4

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I'd love to hear everybody's thoughts on Jaylen. Where last year I thought he was trying to do too little (with the exception of the playoffs) I feel like now he's trying to do too much. He looked great in the first few games but he's handled the ball poorly and made bad decisions on offense at times. That said, he's such an incredible athlete that he is contributing otherwise.
 
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