The 2017 Lineup

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
Despite the power outage, it's hard to complain about the Sox offense. 2nd-best MLB batting average (.288) after Washington and 6th-highest OPS (.749) 1 point higher than Cleveland.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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It's unsustainable....

Pedroia 1 XBH 0 HR
Benny 5 XBH 1 HR
Mookie 4 XBH 1 HR
Hanley 3 XBH 0 HR
Xander 1 XBH 0 HR

Before today's game. Those aren't rate numbers that are going to continue.
Yeah. The fact they are 10-6 to show for it is a nice plus though.
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Bradley's imminent return (barring setbacks) should help with match ups. I think the LF situation has been a bit exposed.
 

wyatt55

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"And you wouldn't want us exposing ourselves!" - Dr. P. Venkman

The Power will come with the better weather and some Fenway love. I'm much more stoked with Moreland's hitting so well to all fields. I had real mixed feelings after watching him up and down here in Texas so long.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Entering today's game, the Sox ISO was at .100 in 618 at bats. After today, it's at .110 in 655. With warmer weather arriving, that number should keep going up.

618 at bats with a .100 ISO is remarkable though.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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It's not going to happen since Bogaerts is off to a slow start, but what is the record for 30/30 players on one team? I could see Bogaerts, Betts and Benintendi pulling this off once or twice in their careers. I'm still of the believe Bogaerts power is coming though. Benintendi stealing 30 may be a reach but seems doable. If they still had Moncada it would be ridiculous. It seems the Sox have developed a lot of power/speed guys the last few years. Margot could even be 20/20 one year. Of course no one expected Bogaerts to be a SB threat. 17/33 in the minors. 34/43 in the Majors and 31 of his last 36.

Of course now the closest things they have to a power/speed guy are Tyler Hill and Lorenzo Cedrola. Neither really project for much power. I could see Cedrola developing into a Manuel Margot type of player though. Not sure on Tyler Hill. And possibly Rusney Castillo who's been hitting for power this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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The record is 2 and that's only happened twice:

1987 Mets (HoJo 36/32 and Strawberry 39/36)
1996 Rockies (Bichette 31/31 and Burks 40/32)
Thanks. Mookie is on pace for 26/26 and Ben10 23/23. They got some work to do. Bogaerts would have to go on an MVP type tear.
 

shaggydog2000

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Apr 5, 2007
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The record is 2 and that's only happened twice:

1987 Mets (HoJo 36/32 and Strawberry 39/36)
1996 Rockies (Bichette 31/31 and Burks 40/32)
How the hell did Dante Bichette steal 31 bases?

Edit: And having a 30/30 season, hitting over .300 with 141 RBI and still not being able to crack 1 WAR really flips old school stats on their head, doesn't it?
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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How the hell did Dante Bichette steal 31 bases?

Edit: And having a 30/30 season, hitting over .300 with 141 RBI and still not being able to crack 1 WAR really flips old school stats on their head, doesn't it?
Coors (1.059/697) & defense.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Thought about making a JBJ thread but I guess it can go here since I don't have much to add other than his current performance with the bat.

In his first 77 PA, Bradley JR was slashing .171/.234/.286 with 6bb/19k and a .200 BABip. Since, he is slashing .304/.423/.576 with 18bb/19k, and a BABip of .329 in 111 PA. This brings his season line to .247/.346/.451 which looks very similar to his last 2 seasons and the numbers he posted in the minors. He's been putting up an OPS of 1.000 for a month now.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
In his first 77 PA, Bradley JR was slashing .171/.234/.286 with 6bb/19k and a .200 BABip. Since, he is slashing .304/.423/.576 with 18bb/19k, and a BABip of .329 in 111 PA. This brings his season line to .247/.346/.451 which looks very similar to his last 2 seasons and the numbers he posted in the minors. He's been putting up an OPS of 1.000 for a month now.
And his K rate for the year is now....I almost don't even want to say it for fear of Gowdying it....under 20%. Which still makes it easily the highest K rate among our starting outfielders.

Speaking of which, our starting OFs as a group are now hitting .273/.352/.467 for a combined .347 wOBA, while playing the expected fine defense. They've been a streaky trio, but the sum of the streaks has been very solid.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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Separate question, which I think we've discussed before, but why again is Mookie batting lead-off and X batting 3rd? With X's better OBP and Mookie's better SLG, a swap would make sense. I suppose this could fall into the if-it-ain't-broke category, but it's something I'd hope the team is considering.
 

Al Zarilla

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Dec 8, 2005
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Separate question, which I think we've discussed before, but why again is Mookie batting lead-off and X batting 3rd? With X's better OBP and Mookie's better SLG, a swap would make sense. I suppose this could fall into the if-it-ain't-broke category, but it's something I'd hope the team is considering.
Sox were going sideways playing around .500 ball when on May 5th Farrell decided to move Mookie back to leadoff to jumpstart the offense (he had hit leadoff for the first half or so last year, then they moved him to cleanup to get more value out of his power). After moving him to leadoff this year, they continued to play around .500 ball until after the Oakland series, so who knows if any results are lineup related. Two things to me:

1. I don't think Mookie cares where he hits in the lineup, whereas some guys seem to freak at leadoff.

2. I wish he could bat first and third. OK, that's silly.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Jul 23, 2005
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And his K rate for the year is now....I almost don't even want to say it for fear of Gowdying it....under 20%. Which still makes it easily the highest K rate among our starting outfielders.

Speaking of which, our starting OFs as a group are now hitting .273/.352/.467 for a combined .347 wOBA, while playing the expected fine defense. They've been a streaky trio, but the sum of the streaks has been very solid.
Fine defense is certainly an understatement
Separate question, which I think we've discussed before, but why again is Mookie batting lead-off and X batting 3rd? With X's better OBP and Mookie's better SLG, a swap would make sense. I suppose this could fall into the if-it-ain't-broke category, but it's something I'd hope the team is considering.
I've had this thought alot. Xander profiles perfectly as a lead off guy. The OBP, speed, and fantastic base running makes it seem like a no brainer.
 

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
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Separate question, which I think we've discussed before, but why again is Mookie batting lead-off and X batting 3rd? With X's better OBP and Mookie's better SLG, a swap would make sense. I suppose this could fall into the if-it-ain't-broke category, but it's something I'd hope the team is considering.
I'm left guessing that it boils down to a player preference thing, where Betts is getting a best player on the team nod while simply telling Farrell he feels most comfortable hitting there.

His power #'s have certainly been better there too.
 
His recent hot streak has lifted Mookie to 6th in positional fWar with 2.8.

But he's done that with a BABIP of just .275, lower than anyone else in the top 33 (Rizzo at 34 has a BABIP of just .244). In fact the average BABIP of the top 30 (excl Mookie) is .352.

If Mookie had that average BABIP and simplistically just adding all of the extra hits as singles, his current line would be a Joey Votto-like .357/.437/.577

If he had Aaron Judge's .424 BABIP, again only adding singles, he'd be at .429/.509/.649. (Conversely, Judge's line with Mookie's BABIP would be .189/.294/.554. Impressive power but decidedly meh otherwise).

All with excellent baserunning, fielding and snarl.

Mookie is having another very, very good season.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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Before today's games, the Red Sox were 14th in OPS and 13th in runs scored. That this team looked so offensively inept to the tune of three total runs in games started by Nick Pivetta, Mike Fiers, and David fucking Paulino is pretty infuriating.
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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The lack of power this month from the offense is really showing

“@EvanDrellich: The Red Sox came into today with a .420 slugging percentage in June, the third lowest mark in the majors.

Before they try and trade for a power bat I would see what Devers can do.
 

grimshaw

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May 16, 2007
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Their top players in various power categories:

ISO - Mookie Betts is 62nd in the league with .211 (which is fine by 2015 standards)
HR's - Betts again with 12 and tied for 59th - though JBJ is gaining. He's also 59th in slugging with a .481
wRC+ - Xander is 45th with a 123.

They have 50+ games left against teams who are top 10 in FIP (Yanks, Jays, Rays, Indians and 4 left with Houston.

This was the best offense in baseball by a good margin last year. It can't all be on Ortiz.
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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This offense would look so much better with Hanley Ramirez' 2016 line of .286/.361/.505.
 

soxhop411

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Dec 4, 2009
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Their top players in various power categories:

ISO - Mookie Betts is 62nd in the league with .211 (which is fine by 2015 standards)
HR's - Betts again with 12 and tied for 59th - though JBJ is gaining. He's also 59th in slugging with a .481
wRC+ - Xander is 45th with a 123.

They have 50+ games left against teams who are top 10 in FIP (Yanks, Jays, Rays, Indians and 4 left with Houston.

This was the best offense in baseball by a good margin last year. It can't all be on Ortiz.
Yah. Ortiz was a big part of our offense last year but he was not our only source of power. It's kind of shocking how much our offense lacks power this year when it's really the same lineup as last year (minus Ortiz)
 

MikeM

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May 27, 2010
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Well in all fairness to the team stat we have a back end that sees Marrero at 3B and the clock striking midnight on Vaz.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
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^

A. Mookie's been pitched to away, he hasn't adjusted, and is banged up
B. X has turned into the player he has, HRs began to come a bit but still
C. Hanley is just nothing when he's dinged up as he is right now, could also be on decline
D. AB is going through rookie adjustments
E. Pedey is declining slowly, still a good player but is he really a #2 hitter anymore?

Mookie needs a day or even two off. maybe with Sale tomorrow night. maybe another lineup shake-up. I would seriously try

X
Beni
Mookie
Moreland
Hanley
JBJ
Pedey
catcher of the day
3B black hole of the day
 

ehaz

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Sep 30, 2007
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I like any lineup that has 10D, X, and Mookie in the first three spots (in any order). Moreland should hit cleanup against righties, Pedroia against lefties until Hanley comes around.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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Yah. Ortiz was a big part of our offense last year but he was not our only source of power. It's kind of shocking how much our offense lacks power this year when it's really the same lineup as last year (minus Ortiz)
Even more shocking given there are 5 players on pace to hit 20 HRs. Just not much more.
 

crazybird1

New Member
Nov 10, 2006
196
I wonder if there is something to be said for putting Hanley on the DL. Allow him to get fully healthy, so he can go on a mid season run. In the meantime Moreland can DH, which might help his broken toe. It also gives Sam Travis a shot at playing first base full time. I would also like to see what LIn can do at third base full time.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I wonder if there is something to be said for putting Hanley on the DL. Allow him to get fully healthy, so he can go on a mid season run. In the meantime Moreland can DH, which might help his broken toe. It also gives Sam Travis a shot at playing first base full time. I would also like to see what LIn can do at third base full time.
Hanley needs 1050 PAs over 2017-18 for his $22m option to vest in 2019. He may consent to a 10-day DL situation, but he'd have real disincentive to accept a longer stint unless it's more serious.
 

grimshaw

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Hanley needs 1050 PAs over 2017-18 for his $22m option to vest in 2019. He may consent to a 10-day DL situation, but he'd have real disincentive to accept a longer stint unless it's more serious.
I'm not disagreeing and have suggested that before, but Farrell has said that he doesn't think a DL stint will help him very much.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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I'm not disagreeing and have suggested that before, but Farrell has said that he doesn't think a DL stint will help him very much.
Missed that. Meaning that Farrell believes this is a slump or that this is the hitter he is now?
 

Byrdbrain

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Jul 18, 2005
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I think it is that the issue would take more time than a 10 day stint and as you stated Hanley would be very reluctant to agree to longer than that.
 

nothumb

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Hanley needs 1050 PAs over 2017-18 for his $22m option to vest in 2019. He may consent to a 10-day DL situation, but he'd have real disincentive to accept a longer stint unless it's more serious.
He's getting to the point where the Sox would be better off letting Chris Young DH in order to avoid paying 22M to a DH with a league-avg OPS. So he might want to consider his options carefully. It would be managerial malpractice for the Sox to let his option vest if he is still hitting like this by the end of 2017.
 

MikeM

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He's getting to the point where the Sox would be better off letting Chris Young DH in order to avoid paying 22M to a DH with a league-avg OPS. So he might want to consider his options carefully. It would be managerial malpractice for the Sox to let his option vest if he is still hitting like this by the end of 2017.

It's a tricky situation when you take into account how the players are going to see it, and Chris Young isn't good enough for that to fly regardless.
 

nothumb

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It's a tricky situation when you take into account how the players are going to see it, and Chris Young isn't good enough for that to fly regardless.
I agree it's tricky as it relates to the clubhouse, but Young and Hanley have extremely similar batting lines this year, right down to the weird reverse split vs LHP. SSS and all, and I wouldn't bet folding money on that being the case at the end of the year. It's just meant to illustrate how putrid Hanley has been and, in my opinion, how suicidal it would be for the Sox to actively ensure they will end up paying for this level of performance for an extra year at premium dollars.

Call me cynical but I could easily see Hanley finishing this year around a .750 OPS and then managing enough bounceback in '18 to ensure his option vests, only to fall off a cliff again in 2019.
 

MikeM

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Hanley's splits vs lefties are really bad so far (.143/.333/.229, .259/.343/.439 vs RHP ), but similar to Bradley's struggles against RHP (while he was still doing well against LHP) earlier in the year I honestly view that being the problem in question here as a good sign in grander scheme of things. At least in terms of whether it's worth completely freaking out over the chance his offense is going to crap.

He's right, he has always crushed LHP. It's been a bad 35 ABs. He'll turn it around.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I actually love how clued into things like k-rate and ld% he seems to be in that conversation. I mean, it's not like the reporter is talking to an old-school jock that has no idea about advanced batting metrics. And he's right. His k-rate (17.8%) isn't bad (especially when considered next to his bb-rate of 22.2%) and though his LD% is a bit low (18.5%), if just one of his fly balls were reclassified as a liner he'd be above his lefty-mashing career average (22.2% vs 21.4%). It's the .154 babip that's killing him there.
 

nvalvo

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This is the lineup thread, right? What about:

SS Bogaerts RH 114 wRC+
CF Bradley LH 119 wRC+
RF Betts RH 115 wRC+
1B Moreland LH 116 wRC+
DH Ramirez RH 99 wRC+
LF Benintendi LH 99 wRC+
2B Pedroia RH 98 wRC+
C Leon SH 77 wRC+ / Vaz RH 87 wRC+
3B Lin LH 101 wRC+ / Marrero RH 27 wRC+

Very good handedness distribution. Recognizes that Bradley has been the best hitter on the team, even including his three weeks of post-DL suck.

Also, I might just hand the 3B job to Lin for two weeks, and see what happens.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
If I try to do a Book-optimized lineup based on what people have actually been doing this year, as opposed to what we might have expected going in, I get this:

Bogaerts
Bradley
Moreland
Betts
Ramirez
Benintendi
Pedroia
Vazquez/Leon
3B du jour

Which is almost exactly nvalvo's lineup except that he flips Moreland and Betts for better L-R alternation, which is probably a smart idea even if it puts Betts in (nominally) the least important of the 1-5 slots.
 

grimshaw

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At the very least Bradley should be moved up to top 5. Even if he bats next to Moreland he has excelled against lefties this year, so it reduces the impact of a LOOGY. Plus Travis or Young are probably hitting for Moreland late against a lefty anyhow.

Bradley's career OPS is .734 vs. lefties and .748 against righties.
 
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benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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This is the lineup thread, right? What about:

SS Bogaerts RH 114 wRC+
CF Bradley LH 119 wRC+
RF Betts RH 115 wRC+
1B Moreland LH 116 wRC+
DH Ramirez RH 99 wRC+
LF Benintendi LH 99 wRC+
2B Pedroia RH 98 wRC+
C Leon SH 77 wRC+ / Vaz RH 87 wRC+
3B Lin LH 101 wRC+ / Marrero RH 27 wRC+

Very good handedness distribution. Recognizes that Bradley has been the best hitter on the team, even including his three weeks of post-DL suck.

Also, I might just hand the 3B job to Lin for two weeks, and see what happens.
Yep this lineup makes the most sense. Way too many LOBs last night, need to squeeze every ounce of production from this lineup...maybe switch X and Betts for comfort/speed/SB reasons. Also Young #4/Travis #6 in for Moreland/Benintendi against LH starter.
 
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