The 2017 Rotation

soxhop411

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Jason Mastrodonato‏Verified account @JMastrodonato 9m9 minutes ago
Steven Wright is frustrated. Said his knuckleball just hasn't been as violent since the injury last year. He feels great, it's mechanical.


I do wonder that even though he "feels" great if still he might not be fully healthy.. I dont get the Mechanical line, I thought knuckleballers relied less on mechanics than a normal pitcher


Jason Mastrodonato‏Verified account @JMastrodonato 6m6 minutes ago
I'm not *totally* sure how to interpret these horizontal movement charts for Steven Wright, but I know that 2017 is different...(via Brooks)



Brian MacPherson‏ @brianmacp 40s41 seconds ago
Steven Wright is throwing what in effect is a different knuckleball than he threw last year, at least in terms of the way it's moving:

 
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Reverend

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Knuckleballers are voodoo. As soon as you start hearing them talk about working on mechanics, you should get a shiver--somewhere, a soft spring breeze dies.
 

BaseballJones

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Porcello, at least, has been pretty solid, despite his overall stats.

Four out of five starts have been "quality starts". Last two starts:

7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lose 3-0)
6.2 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 2 er, 4 bb, 9 k (Sox lose 3-1)

13.2 ip, 11 h, 6 r, 2 er, 5 bb, 14 k, Sox lose both, scoring only one run in the process.

If he continues to pitch steadily like this and Sale keeps doing what Sale does, the rotation should be fine. I am not counting on Price coming back this year...call me a pessimist. But if he does, and is healthy, then that's a nice boost. The Sox have had all kinds of problems - illness, injury, etc - and are still 11-9.
 

charlieoscar

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The Sox have had all kinds of problems - illness, injury, etc - and are still 11-9.
And their opponents' records total to 63-60. I know we are dealing with small sample sizes but three of Boston's six opponents have worse records than they do and one is tied. They've also only played one game against one of the two with a better record.
 

uk_sox_fan

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And their opponents' records total to 63-60. I know we are dealing with small sample sizes but three of Boston's six opponents have worse records than they do and one is tied. They've also only played one game against one of the two with a better record.
Wow - way to cherry pick your stats. How 'bout this:

Only 3 of Boston's 19 games have been against teams with a losing record (not counting the teams' record vs the Sox)

2-3 vs Bal (11-4 .733)
0-1 vs NYY (11-7 .611)
3-1 vs TB (10-9 .526)
1-3 vs Det (8-8 .500)
3-0 vs Pit (9-9 .500)
2-1 vs Tor (5-12 .294)

That's a weighted-average opponent winning percentage of .567 which equates to 91.8 wins in a season.

The next 9 games are against teams with a current avg win pct of .652 (that's 105.6 wins per 162) against other teams which would bring their opp win pct up to .594 for the 1st 6th of the season (96.3 win pace).

But I suppose your point is that they've had an unnaturally easy schedule thus far?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Porcello, at least, has been pretty solid, despite his overall stats.

Four out of five starts have been "quality starts". Last two starts:

7.0 ip, 6 h, 3 r, 0 er, 1 bb, 5 k (Sox lose 3-0)
6.2 ip, 5 h, 3 r, 2 er, 4 bb, 9 k (Sox lose 3-1)

13.2 ip, 11 h, 6 r, 2 er, 5 bb, 14 k, Sox lose both, scoring only one run in the process.

If he continues to pitch steadily like this and Sale keeps doing what Sale does, the rotation should be fine. I am not counting on Price coming back this year...call me a pessimist. But if he does, and is healthy, then that's a nice boost. The Sox have had all kinds of problems - illness, injury, etc - and are still 11-9.

It's only 5 games, but his stat line looks more 2015 than 2016 so far. He has given up too many HRs and hits in the early going. He always going to give up hits (excepting 2016) but his HR rate is double what it normally is. Hopefully he can keep the ball in the park because that will determine how successful he is this year. It'll be interesting to see if his K rate continues to improve and what impact that will have.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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It's only 5 games, but his stat line looks more 2015 than 2016 so far. He has given up too many HRs and hits in the early going. He always going to give up hits (excepting 2016) but his HR rate is double what it normally is. Hopefully he can keep the ball in the park because that will determine how successful he is this year. It'll be interesting to see if his K rate continues to improve and what impact that will have.
Giving up HR early seems to be a consistent pattern with Porcello. Even last year, his April HR rates were much higher than his season numbers. In fact, his April HR/FB in 2016 was higher than it's been this year (16.7 to 15.8). But by the end of the year it was under 10.

So I think it's early to worry.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Giving up HR early seems to be a consistent pattern with Porcello. Even last year, his April HR rates were much higher than his season numbers. In fact, his April HR/FB in 2016 was higher than it's been this year (16.7 to 15.8). But by the end of the year it was under 10.

So I think it's early to worry.
That and he gave up 4 HRs in 1 game. An outing like that will skew the stats for awhile.
 

charlieoscar

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But I suppose your point is that they've had an unnaturally easy schedule thus far?
I suppose my point is that they are doing about what is expected given how their opponents have done thus far. I did a weighted LOG5 check of their record vs. each opponent's record and it came out to 10.5+ expected wins for Boston.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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With Wright going to the DL yesterday the Sox called up Brandon Workman. Wright was scheduled to start on Thursday so the Sox will need a starter. Both Owens and Johnson last started for the Pawsox last Thursday (4/27) so either would be ready. Kyle Kendrick pitched on the 28th so he'd also be available. Velazquez pitched Saturday so he'd also be possible, coming off 6 perfect innings in that game
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Kendrick sent down after the game last night (he has options?) and RR Jr. recalled. This leaves the Sox two options: Skip the Monday open day (Kendrick's position) and go with a 4 man rotation for the next two rounds (Thurs-Sunday, Tuesday-Friday) and call up someone by the 5/20 game at the A's, or call up someone to start in Kendrick's slot on Tuesday.

Owens pitched last night (5IP 6H 4ER 3W 7K), Walden is in line for the start tonight, so they would be the ones closest to "turn" for Tuesday. Brian Johnson started this past Tuesday and could be held back (7IP 10H 3ER 2BB 3K). Velazquez has also been pitching well for the Pawsox.
 

luckysox

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I so thought Kendrick would be an ok stop gap in case of emergency when they signed him. Man, was I wrong. The rotation is hanging by the thread that is holding Price's elbow together, and even before we get to that (IF we get to that), we likely get to see S3, Ep 1&2 of the Henry Owens show.

It's still early and things could iron out, but yeesh, if things continue down this path (injuries and ineffectiveness by the limited depth), it could be a very long summer.
 

ponch73

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It apparently would require a 40-man roster move, but the first choice for the next AAAA pitcher after Kendrick seems pretty obvious looking at AAA stats:

Velazquez: 1.23 ERA / 0.73 WHIP / 3.4 K:BB / 5.5 IP per start
Johnson: 2.64 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 2.2 K:BB / 6.1 IP per start
Owens: 2.27 ERA / 1.39 WHIP / 1.9 K:BB / 5.3 IP per start
Kendrick: 6.00 ERA / 1.07 WHIP / 4.0 K:BB / 6.8 IP per start
Walden: 2.01 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 2.6 K:BB / 4.5 IP per start
 
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Byrdbrain

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40 man transaction isn't an issue, Wright can go to the 60 day DL.
It could be either Johnson or Velazquez, the numbers point to Velazquez but I'm sure they will have some scouting info that will influence the decision also .
 

BaseballJones

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It feels like Owens is 33 already, but he's only 24. Many really good pitchers don't get it together until their mid-to-late 20s. He keeps putting up pretty decent minor league numbers, so at the very least he's valuable for the PawSox. Definitely the kind of guy you keep around and hope that at some point it clicks.

Don't rush him, but boy the Sox could use a healthy David Price back.
 

joe dokes

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With off-days the next two mondays, will they even need a starter to replace Kendrick before Price is likely to return (assuming no setbacks)?
 

Byrdbrain

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Merloni has been tweeting that they should start Johnson Sunday and give Pom a few extra days off. He proposes to start Pom between Porcello and Sale since that should be easier on the BP.
I know many here don't like Merloni but that seems like a reasonable plan to me.


Edit: Pete Abe just reported they are skipping the 5th starter one time through but may insert him between Sale and Porcello.

Edit 2: it seems : and P without a space makes a smiley face :p
 
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Buzzkill Pauley

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It's Porcello and Sale, then epic fail.

I know everyone hates on watching the knuckleball, but this team is in desperate need of a guy like 2016 Wright who -- even if walking the tightrope every turn -- still consistently saved the bullpen last spring.

I sure hope Price can give the team 20 good starts, because starting the season without him just has not worked out.
 

BaseballJones

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It's Porcello and Sale, then epic fail.

I know everyone hates on watching the knuckleball, but this team is in desperate need of a guy like 2016 Wright who -- even if walking the tightrope every turn -- still consistently saved the bullpen last spring.

I sure hope Price can give the team 20 good starts, because starting the season without him just has not worked out.
Please don't forget Eduardo Rodriguez. 3.07 era, 1.26 whip, 11.4 k/9

Since his first appearance of the year he's given the Sox 24.1 ip, 2.22 era, 1.19 whip, 11.8 k/9, and in each of his last four starts, he's never given up more than 3 runs. I wish he'd go more than 6 innings, but I'll happily take 6 innings of 2-run ball every time out.
 

shaggydog2000

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It's Porcello and Sale, then epic fail.

I know everyone hates on watching the knuckleball, but this team is in desperate need of a guy like 2016 Wright who -- even if walking the tightrope every turn -- still consistently saved the bullpen last spring.

I sure hope Price can give the team 20 good starts, because starting the season without him just has not worked out.
Finding a borderline minor leaguer who performs well above past record and projections and gives you a half season of All-star quality for a minimal salary definitely is a useful find, I just don't think you can expect it to happen frequently. Adding Price to the rotation should (eventually) take some burden off of the bullpen.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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Please don't forget Eduardo Rodriguez. 3.07 era, 1.26 whip, 11.4 k/9

Since his first appearance of the year he's given the Sox 24.1 ip, 2.22 era, 1.19 whip, 11.8 k/9, and in each of his last four starts, he's never given up more than 3 runs. I wish he'd go more than 6 innings, but I'll happily take 6 innings of 2-run ball every time out.
I deliberately excluded him because of that inability to get deeper into games.

If Rodriguez were following Sale or Porcello, there wouldn't be any real problem at all with him going 5-6 IP each start. But following the bullpen-killing starts of Pomeranz and Wright/Kendrick/Johnson/Owens, the bullpen has tended to be gassed for those last 9-12 outs of EdRo's starts.

Ideally, the Sox will use their next few days off to arrange the rotation for the last 4 months of the season as: Sale - Pomeranz - Porcello - Rodriguez - Price.
 

effectivelywild

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I deliberately excluded him because of that inability to get deeper into games.

If Rodriguez were following Sale or Porcello, there wouldn't be any real problem at all with him going 5-6 IP each start. But following the bullpen-killing starts of Pomeranz and Wright/Kendrick/Johnson/Owens, the bullpen has tended to be gassed for those last 9-12 outs of EdRo's starts.

Ideally, the Sox will use their next few days off to arrange the rotation for the last 4 months of the season as: Sale - Pomeranz - Porcello - Rodriguez - Price.
Oh great, now we're paying Price 30 million to be our 5th starter? ;)
 

BaseballJones

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I deliberately excluded him because of that inability to get deeper into games.

If Rodriguez were following Sale or Porcello, there wouldn't be any real problem at all with him going 5-6 IP each start. But following the bullpen-killing starts of Pomeranz and Wright/Kendrick/Johnson/Owens, the bullpen has tended to be gassed for those last 9-12 outs of EdRo's starts.

Ideally, the Sox will use their next few days off to arrange the rotation for the last 4 months of the season as: Sale - Pomeranz - Porcello - Rodriguez - Price.
Ok. Well, in 2016, the April 10-June 20 Steven Wright was unbelievable.

7.0 innings per start, 2.01 era, 1.10 whip, 7.3 k/9

The June 25-Aug 21 Steven Wright was...not quite as good.

5.2 innings per start, 5.55 era, 1.49 whip, 7.3 k/9

Could the Sox use that first version of Steven Wright? Uh....YEAH. But then again....that first version of Steven Wright is a Cy Young award winner.

The whole season 2016 Steven Wright was really the assemblage of two totally different guys. That first guy would have helped this year's Sox immensely. That second guy....would not have.
 

shaggydog2000

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I deliberately excluded him because of that inability to get deeper into games.

If Rodriguez were following Sale or Porcello, there wouldn't be any real problem at all with him going 5-6 IP each start. But following the bullpen-killing starts of Pomeranz and Wright/Kendrick/Johnson/Owens, the bullpen has tended to be gassed for those last 9-12 outs of EdRo's starts.

Ideally, the Sox will use their next few days off to arrange the rotation for the last 4 months of the season as: Sale - Pomeranz - Porcello - Rodriguez - Price.
Before today Rodriguez was at 5 2/3 innings per start, which is almost exactly the AL average for a starter. He's not as much of a horse as Sale, but he is not a problem either by modern standards. Pomeranz is only barely above 5 per start, so you could find fault with him. It's really the Kendrick/Wright/Johnson pu-pu platter that has been out of the game in less than 5 and giving you problems. Swapping those guys out for Price is a huge upgrade, just in innings pitched before accounting for quality of innings.
 

richgedman'sghost

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I deliberately excluded him because of that inability to get deeper into games.

If Rodriguez were following Sale or Porcello, there wouldn't be any real problem at all with him going 5-6 IP each start. But following the bullpen-killing starts of Pomeranz and Wright/Kendrick/Johnson/Owens, the bullpen has tended to be gassed for those last 9-12 outs of EdRo's starts.

Ideally, the Sox will use their next few days off to arrange the rotation for the last 4 months of the season as: Sale - Pomeranz - Porcello - Rodriguez - Price.
Well you cannot hold the 6 inning thing against him today. Not his fault that we have an idiotic manager who pulls EROD in the 7th with 1out and runner on 1st. I realize your post was written before the game started but just saying that you have been pretty hard on EROD.. On the other hand I do understand your point about him straining the bullpen but I still think EROD has had a positive impact on the team and not been an "EPIC FAILURE" in your words.
 

AB in DC

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Well you cannot hold the 6 inning thing against him today. Not his fault that we have an idiotic manager who pulls EROD in the 7th with 1out and runner on 1st.
Except:
- It was Barnes who was pulled with one out and one on, not EdRo.
- It was the 8th inning, not the 7th inning
- It worked beautifully and was a major reason why the Sox won, and
- EdRo only came out because Chris Young pinch hit for him in the top of the 7th.
 

richgedman'sghost

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No Ab you are wrong...EROD was pulled from the game for the pinch hitter Chris Young in the top of the 7th which is exactly what I wrote..EROD defintely had another inning left in him since he had only thrown 88 pitches. I tbought it was an idiotic decision at the time since a runner on 1st with 1 out is not much of a threat. Plus if you let EROD bat, you have Chris Young available to hit for Bradley later on. If you are going to correct me, make sure you understood what I wrote.
 

richgedman'sghost

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I was specifically referring to the poster who called EROD a 5 or 6 inning pitcher who is a drain on the bullpen.
 

AB in DC

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Wait, you're actually complaining about Farrell trying to generate some offense in the 7th inning of a 1-1 game? Sorry, that thought never remotely crossed my mind.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Yes it was a stupid move considering the state of our bullpen Kimbrel excepted. One out runner on 1st is not much of a threat. EROD should have stayed in the game and pitched another inning. Would have saved us from the Kelly / Barnes experience.
 

johnnywayback

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Yes it was a stupid move considering the state of our bullpen Kimbrel excepted. One out runner on 1st is not much of a threat. EROD should have stayed in the game and pitched another inning. Would have saved us from the Kelly / Barnes experience.
I mean, you can't manage a game assuming you only have one reliever. And with Rodriguez near 90 pitches, you have to figure you'd get maybe one more inning out of him -- in fact, we would have been itching for someone to be up in the bullpen to start the inning and for Farrell to make a change as soon as anyone got on base. So even for a confirmed Farrell-hater like me, pinch-hitting there seems like a near-obvious move, and certainly not a "stupid" one.
 

joe dokes

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Yes it was a stupid move considering the state of our bullpen Kimbrel excepted. One out runner on 1st is not much of a threat. EROD should have stayed in the game and pitched another inning. Would have saved us from the Kelly / Barnes experience.
Not entirely. One of Barnes or Kelly probably would have started the 8th. (assuming ERod made it out of the 7th).

And given the way the offense was going at the time, it's not entirely unreasonable for Farrell to consider man on 1st one out, top of the order nearby, as about as good a threat as they're likely to get. On balance, I might have stuck with ERod. But PHing for him there was not some sort of malpractice (like it might have been if he didn't have to hit, i.e., just pulling him).
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm not 100% sure, but I think when you sign a minor league deal, you can be optioned all year.
Every player has a fixed number of options when their major league (40-man) roster time begins...usually three. Once they're used, the options are gone and the team can't remove a player from the 25-man roster without removing him from the 40-man as well (DFA). Additionally, once a player accumulates at least five years of service time, any remaining options are no longer "free" to the team, meaning the player can refuse an assignment and stay with the big club (or force his release). Kendrick has two options remaining but over seven years of service time, which means he had to agree to the optional assignment for the Red Sox to send him down. A good thing for the Red Sox and roster depth, but not necessarily typical of any veteran player signed to a minor league deal like Kendrick was.
 

joe dokes

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Every player has a fixed number of options when their major league (40-man) roster time begins...usually three. Once they're used, the options are gone and the team can't remove a player from the 25-man roster without removing him from the 40-man as well (DFA). Additionally, once a player accumulates at least five years of service time, any remaining options are no longer "free" to the team, meaning the player can refuse an assignment and stay with the big club (or force his release). Kendrick has two options remaining but over seven years of service time, which means he had to agree to the optional assignment for the Red Sox to send him down. A good thing for the Red Sox and roster depth, but not necessarily typical of any veteran player signed to a minor league deal like Kendrick was.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/11/red-sox-send-kyle-kendrick-back-pawtucket/oxvSHPlCPDicgt6pqKGpMK/story.html

Per a contract agreement, Kendrick gave the Sox the right to option him within the first 45 days of his deal. He will return to the Pawtucket rotation.
 

spiritof1967

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This is probably a lurker's question (fittingly), but does anyone have any idea why they wouldn't bring up Velazquez? Everything I'm seeing on his stats line looks decent or better. If they think Price will be back in the rotation within a week or so, I get it, but just in case he isn't...
 

johnnywayback

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This is probably a lurker's question (fittingly), but does anyone have any idea why they wouldn't bring up Velazquez? Everything I'm seeing on his stats line looks decent or better. If they think Price will be back in the rotation within a week or so, I get it, but just in case he isn't...
He isn't fully stretched out, is the short answer, or at least one short answer. I think he hasn't gone more than 80 pitches in a start yet. The reason for this might be that he pitched 246 innings last year, so perhaps they're trying to limit stress on his arm.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is probably a lurker's question (fittingly), but does anyone have any idea why they wouldn't bring up Velazquez? Everything I'm seeing on his stats line looks decent or better. If they think Price will be back in the rotation within a week or so, I get it, but just in case he isn't...
With the off-day on Monday, they don't really need a fifth starter until a week from Saturday. Given the abuse of the pen in recent days, it's probably better in the short term to carry an extra reliever until that fifth spot needs to be filled. Assuming two rehab starts for Price, that puts him on pace to come back to start on Wednesday, May 24. So it appears they only need one more spot start to bridge the gap to Price.

While Velazquez is on the older side in terms of being a prospect, it still would be wise to resist starting his service clock (and using an option) as long as possible. For one start, it wouldn't seem prudent to start that clock. Not when Johnson or Owens or even Kendrick (who I still think is most likely to be the one) are available and already on the 40-man.
 

phenweigh

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Per a contract agreement, Kendrick gave the Sox the right to option him within the first 45 days of his deal. He will return to the Pawtucket rotation.
Thanks for this. I thought the Sox would potentially lose Kendrick if they tried to send him back to Pawtucket. Though after those two outings I wouldn't consider it much of a loss.

While Velazquez is on the older side in terms of being a prospect, it still would be wise to resist starting his service clock (and using an option) as long as possible. For one start, it wouldn't seem prudent to start that clock. Not when Johnson or Owens or even Kendrick (who I still think is most likely to be the one) are available and already on the 40-man.
But it wouldn't be ten days since they sent Kendrick down ... so he couldn't be recalled unless it was for an injury, right?
 

trekfan55

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Sunday's game looks iffy (from another thread) so that adds one more off day to the equation.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sunday's game looks iffy (from another thread) so that adds one more off day to the equation.
True, but it wouldn't affect the need for a 5th starter next Saturday. It would only mean everyone gets an extra day's rest before their next start, assuming they push everyone back and keep everyone in order. Or they could just skip Pomeranz (move him to Friday) and keep everyone else on schedule.