The 2021 Infield

nvalvo

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The infield heading into 2021 has some worthwhile questions.

On the left side of the infield, we have some well established incumbents.
  • Xander Bogaerts is one of the best players in baseball. He has received MVP votes each of the last three years, a span during which he has hit .300/.372/.535 and played defense within a few runs of average.
  • Rafael Devers has established himself as a middle of the order bat, if something of a slow starter. But questions linger about his future at 3B, where he can look uneven. 14 errors in 57 games in 2020 is a lot, even if dWAR thinks he's within range of average. Likely a move to 1B or DH will be in the cards at some point — but when?
On the right side, we have some young players and many more questions.
  • Bobby Dalbec's debut was one of the few highlights in a dismal 2020 season. He showed that his carrying tool, power, is absolutely legitimate, while also showing that concerns about his strikeout rate were warranted. The ceiling is very high, and the floor is very low. While I think he should be given the chance to start, we will likely want to bring in an experienced bench player who could step up if Dalbec falls apart contact-wise. We need to see what we have with him, with Triston Casas coming up behind him. (Another wrinkle is that Dalbec is likely a better defender at 3B than Devers.)
  • At second base, in contrast, it's not clear who the incumbent even is.
    • Michael Chavis showed very little in 2020, posting a 69 OPS+ and bad defense at several positions. I imagine he's had his last MLB at bats.
    • Christian Arroyo is something of a post-prospect, but (finally healthy) he showed a lot of potential in limited time (54 PA) in 2020. His overall line took a hit with a 2/17 slump the last week of the season, but that followed a red-hot 7/26 4 XBH stretch. The defense at 2B looked playable, and he got into games at SS and 3B, too. His strikeouts weren't excessive, he looked playable defensively, and he hit for a little pop.
    • Utilityman Tzu-Wei Lin's calling card is his glovework in the IF and the OF, but he took another step back offensively in very limited playing time in 2020. After posting a very respectable 95 OPS+ in 2017-18, garnering himself the nickname "Two-Way" — I gave it to him, and I'm proud even if it was obvious — his OPS+ has tumbled since to 49 and now -3, which I don't think I even realized was possible. I was just checking on his option status and I saw that he was apparently released. So... yeah. (Red(s)hawksFan clarifies below that TWL is now a mLFA.)
    • Yairo Muñoz only played OF with Boston in 2020, but he has played 2B with the Cardinals, I'm not sure how well. Like Arroyo, Muñoz raked in limited playing time late in 2020. Muñoz would be amazing in that IF/OF role that Lin had been occupying.
I have to say, I'd be tempted to just hand Arroyo the 2B job, unless there are some very cheap and interesting non-tenders out there. Not because I think it wouldn't be possible to do better, but because Downs seems likely to take the job long term, and I would rather spend money on pitchers and outfielders. But I know that there are other options out there.

Let's talk about the infield!
 
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Harry Hooper

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I mentioned this in another thread, but the coming seasons for the Sox look to have infields without any above-average fielders. Maybe Downs will be one? It's not a pretty picture.

Is the fielding prowess on an infield unit, however, markedly less important now with the increased use of shifts and the decreased frequency of balls in play?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Tzu-Wei Lin was DFA, outrighted to AAA, and is now a minor league free agent. I don't think he should be considered an option for the 2021 Red Sox.
 

chawson

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I expect Bloom will make several trades in the coming weeks. Personally, I lean toward Dalbec getting dealt in one of them, but I bet I'm in the minority. If he stays, then it's sink or swim time for Bobby D. I'd be tempted to bring Mitch back to platoon with him, but that won't help his development. We need to see if he's a baby Judge, not a short-side platoon bat.

That said, we do need a guy who can play 1B if Dalbec flops by June and we're still in it. I don't think that guy's on the team (and I don't think it's Chavis). That's a tricky signing -- a guy good enough to warrant regular playing time who we may be forced to ask to slide to 1B midseason. There are a few FAs that fit the bill, but you have to convince them they'll get playing time. It may be easier to fill that role by trade (Moran or Frazier, plz).

What makes it all trickier for Bloom is that the Sox also have similar situations at 2B and LF, on top of needing a full-time CF. Arroyo may be able to play a credible 2B, or he might flop (which is likelier, imo). Beni might rebound (likely), or he could be broken. Signing those guys' full-time replacements now squanders the opportunity cost. Dalbec might be a star. Beni might fully rebound. Arroyo might be a long-term solution at 2B (which is why it makes sense to roll with him instead of signing a stopgap like Schoop). But the bust rate on each is fairly high, and Bloom may desperately need to replace them by June if they're disastrous and the team's otherwise in contention.
 

jon abbey

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Aren’t defensive stats considered the most useless among the plethora of stats out there?
They are not as accurate as the better offensive stats, but that doesn't make them useless.
 

BaseballJones

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I think I've asked this before, but what's better: having a guy with limited range but who never makes an error on anything he gets to, or a guy with greater range but makes a lot of errors, even if he makes more plays as well?

I guess the variables are: (1) how many more balls does the second guy get to compared to the first, and (b) their relative fielding percentages.

But in general, what's the feeling here?
 

A Bad Man

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My limited understanding is that there is no consensus on how to properly evaluate infield defense, with the propensity of shifting further befuddling matters. Outfield is more stable.

I would assume that all defensive metrics are constructed internally with proprietary systems. Likely this is the case for offense as well, but I'm guessing that there is a lot more sorcery on the defensive side.
 

jon abbey

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I'll always take a sure-handed fielder with limited range, simply because you know what you have and can position/ shift him accordingly. A well-positioned fielder can cure a lot of ills.
I would say the opposite and I don't think it's close. Assuming we are still talking about shortstops, Tim Anderson had the most errors of any MLB SS in 2019 (skipping 2020 because it was such a short season) at 26, and while some of those may lead to two bases instead of one, every ball that gets by a limited range SS is an extra baserunner and that is way more than 26 in a season.
 

nvalvo

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Shortstop defense over the last 4 seasons

View attachment 36789
My limited understanding is that there is no consensus on how to properly evaluate infield defense, with the propensity of shifting further befuddling matters. Outfield is more stable.

I would assume that all defensive metrics are constructed internally with proprietary systems. Likely this is the case for offense as well, but I'm guessing that there is a lot more sorcery on the defensive side.
DRS hates Bogaerts so much that I have to wonder what's going on. This is why his baseball-reference WAR totals (based on DRS) are wildly different from his Fangraphs WAR totals, based on UZR.

UZR doesn't think he's great or anything, but has him 1.4 runs above average over those four seasons. The new statcast-based OAA has Bogaerts in the bottom third, again over those four seasons, but the magnitudes are all much smaller, (i.e. the range between the best and worst SS is 60 runs over four seasons instead of 118). In their measure denominated in runs, Bogaert's is -5 runs over that period. It's all very strange.
 

BaseballJones

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I would say the opposite and I don't think it's close. Assuming we are still talking about shortstops, Tim Anderson had the most errors of any MLB SS in 2019 (skipping 2020 because it was such a short season) at 26, and while some of those may lead to two bases instead of one, every ball that gets by a limited range SS is an extra baserunner and that is way more than 26 in a season.
So does a SS get penalized by the metrics if his third baseman has great range and “steals”ground balls that a lesser 3B wouldn’t make, and thus would normally be made by a SS?
 

jon abbey

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So does a SS get penalized by the metrics if his third baseman has great range and “steals”ground balls that a lesser 3B wouldn’t make, and thus would normally be made by a SS?
I don't know and shifts confuse things much more, but your question wasn't about metrics, it was about performance.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Aren’t defensive stats considered the most useless among the plethora of stats out there?
Personally, I say yes. It's too context driven and too dependent on positioning. I think scouting is still the best tool for evaluating defense (with keeping an eye on the stats still, not totally trashing them).
Xander looks to me to be an average SS. He should stick there for 3-5 more years maximum. Where he can go after that? LF? 3B and 1B seem to have a lot of talent there for long term.
Devers actually looks to me to be an above average 3B that has mental lapses. If he can overcome those, he'll be borderline GG quality ,IMO... for at least another 7 seasons. I wouldn't move him.

The cornerstone for me is Dalbec... can he cut back on the K rate, and if so, after 2021 he could provide the ideal DH/3B/1B guy with Casas looking to be the real deal.
I'm good with Arroyo and a platoon until Downs is ready.
 

Manramsclan

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I mentioned this in another thread, but the coming seasons for the Sox look to have infields without any above-average fielders. Maybe Downs will be one? It's not a pretty picture.
I expect Bloom will make several trades in the coming weeks. Personally, I lean toward Dalbec getting dealt in one of them, but I bet I'm in the minority. If he stays, then it's sink or swim time for Bobby D.
Both of these posts confirm my belief that now is the time to shift Devers to 1B and Dalbec to 3B. According to evaluators Dalbec is a plus defender at 3B and the former pitcher has a plus arm. If he flourishes there defensively and offensively the Red Sox have solved a short term problem and have boosted his trade value by moving him further up the defensive spectrum.
If they trade him, Devers can move back to third base (he's only 24, it's not like a season at 1st will kill him) when Casas comes up in 2022.
If they don't trade Dalbec, he hits his ceiling, and Casas arrives as Freddie Freeman-lite, see if JD opts out. If he does there is enough time between 1B/3B/DH for all three of those guys.
If JD doesn't well back to the trade market you go.
All of these scenarios are extremely optimistic. If Dalbec ends up flaming out, Devers moves back to third. If Dalbec pans out and Casas never develops as intended then Devers can just stay at 1st. If neither of Dalbec or Casas pan out Devers moves back to third and the Sox are right back where they started except Rafael has some defensive versatility.
Why not do this now while there is not much to lose and a lot to gain?
 

JBJ_HOF

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According to evaluators Dalbec is a plus defender at 3B and the former pitcher has a plus arm.
Not the case. Alex Speier and the Sox Prospect group were talking about this on a podcast yesterday. Speier said maybe you trade him if a team still sees him as a 3B because that would overvalue him, but they said reports during the 2019 season were not good on him at 3B, reports from last year was he seemed stiff even at 1B (where he will still be a good defender), and the fact is he's just getting older now. Devers' defensive upside is considerably higher.
 

Manramsclan

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Not the case. Alex Speier and the Sox Prospect group were talking about this on a podcast yesterday. Speier said maybe you trade him if a team still sees him as a 3B because that would overvalue him, but they said reports during the 2019 season were not good on him at 3B, reports from last year was he seemed stiff even at 1B (where he will still be a good defender), and the fact is he's just getting older now. Devers' defensive upside is considerably higher.
I stand corrected. I must have seen an earlier report.

*Extreme Gilda Radner voice* Nevermind
 

billy ashley

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Yeah, Dalbec's D at 3B has sort of been declining for a couple years now. Devers, frustrating as he is, was actually a really good defender in 19.

Swapping them probably makes Boston worse than better.

Xander is okay if you prefer UZR and terrible if you prefer DRS. This is also not new. I tend to take a split the difference mentality. I suspect he's bad, borderline very bad at SS. Not enough that I'd move him, but enough that you need to consider other destinations once he approaches his 30s.

Love him as a player. He's our Jeter, right? If you remove the one year he was clearly hurt, he's been a stellar hitter since 15.