The 2023 Injury Thread

[Yelling At Clouds]

They're not alone in that strategy!

LAD one-year SP deals since 2020:
Alex Wood, Jimmy Nelson, Clayton Kershaw (2), Tyler Anderson, Andrew Heaney, Danny Duffy, Noah Syndergaard

SFG one-year SP deals since 2020:
Kevin Gausman (2), Tyler Anderson, Drew Smyly, Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, Aaron Sanchez, Carlos Rodón, Matthew Boyd, Jakob Junis

BOS one-year SP deals since 2020:
Martin Pérez (2), Garrett Richards, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, James Paxton*, Corey Kluber

Kershaw someone skews the equation there but he counts. The Giants struck gold with Gausman and Rodón.

The results haven't been terrific for Boston, but I don't think it's an awful strategy. Particularly if there's still bruising after the Sale and Price deals.

And the flip side is how the "hit" rate for these deals compares to the more lucrative deals pitchers have signed the last few years. Without looking too hard into it, I'd wager they're pretty similar - of course, there are more opportunities for a long-term deal to go south, so maybe that's kind of misleading.

But just off the top of my head, though, I think about Seattle giving a huge deal to Robbie Ray when - last year, anyway! - they probably would have been better off just sticking with Tyler Anderson and reallocating the money elsewhere. Toronto got a good year out of Gausman but a lousy one out of Berrios. Texas spent a ton of money on its rotation, but would it surprise anyone if Eovaldi and deGrom missed significant time and Perez and Heaney couldn't recapture last year's successes? It would not.

 

[chrisfont9]

Regular folks do not throw 95 mile an hour fastballs and 12-to-6 curve balls. Those things produce tremendous, unnatural forces on shoulders and elbows, don't they?

Sure, but what are we talking about? We know what those injuries are. The point of this discussion is whether there is anything to the POV that a guy who was just injured will just keep getting injured. Shoulder and elbow injuries aren't of that variety, they are slow building, catastrophic and slow to heal, though when they heal (elbows especially) they are healed for a while. Nobody is saying people don't get hurt. I am saying guys who get hurt aren't more likely than their healthy teammate to get injured next.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure, but what are we talking about? We know what those injuries are. The point of this discussion is whether there is anything to the POV that a guy who was just injured will just keep getting injured. Shoulder and elbow injuries aren't of that variety, they are slow building, catastrophic and slow to heal, though when they heal (elbows especially) they are healed for a while. Nobody is saying people don't get hurt. I am saying guys who get hurt aren't more likely than their healthy teammate to get injured next.

There are lots of studies that suggest that you are wrong, though…and that a guy who has already hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) is more likely to hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) than someone who hasn’t.

 

[chrisfont9]

I think the strategy may work if you already have a rotation fronted with guys like Urias and Buehler. The obvious problem is that the organization, under multiple GM’s, has shown no real ability to draft and develop (or trade for) quality young pitching. Bloom doesn’t even really seem to be drafting pitchers at all. Building staffs through free agency is probably always going to be pretty dicey.

Their last draft they took 12 pitchers in 20 rounds. Also if you want to look at their development approach you have to look at their international signings. Again, lots of pitchers.
https://www.soxprospects.com/international.htm

We all know they have a spotty record developing pitchers, but in the last three years they've snagged Whitlock and developed Bello, so I'm not sure they are even below average at the moment. They aren't the Rays, but they seem to be trying. A lot of this stuff, to me, comes down to the fact that there's a ton of talent and 29 other teams of mostly not-idiots anymore, so standing out in this environment is harder than it looks.

 

[lexrageorge]

There are lots of studies that suggest that you are wrong, though…and that a guy who has already hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) is more likely to hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) than someone who hasn’t.

Where are those studies? Everything I've seen does not show much difference from what could be predicted by randomness.

The bigger concern with injuries is that they tend to start piling up as players get into their mid-to-upper 30's (for some even earlier). And the missed time as a result has a more deleterious impact on the player's career going forward.

Is Chris Sale any more likely to get hurt this season because he had TJ surgery in 2020 or fell of his bike last year? No. But he is more likely to be hurt because he just turned 34. And the combination of the missed time and his age means that the error bars on his expected effectiveness are much larger than anytime in the past.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

There are lots of studies that suggest that you are wrong, though…and that a guy who has already hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) is more likely to hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) than someone who hasn’t.

You've made this claim a couple times. Do you have a link to one of these studies, or an article that cites them? Because intuitively, it makes sense that an injury weakens a muscle or ligament making it vulnerable to future injury. But does that apply to surgically repaired and properly rehabbed ligaments and tendons (like Tommy John surgery), or broken bones?

 

[chrisfont9]

There are lots of studies that suggest that you are wrong, though…and that a guy who has already hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) is more likely to hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) than someone who hasn’t.

Again, we weren't talking about catastrophic injuries, we were talking about "injury prone-ness" and how all hope for the team is already lost for 2023. Yes, guys with catastrophic injuries are probably, on average, more likely to have another such injury than the thousands of guys who have never had one. But if anyone thinks Sale is going to blow out his elbow again tomorrow or Mondesi is going to tear up his knee by the all star break, I don't think the "more likely" studies show anything like that. Those guys are healed and it'll be a while before the repaired tissues break down again.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The obvious problem is that the organization, under multiple GM’s, has shown no real ability to draft and develop (or trade for) quality young pitching.

We have an entire MiL staff of young pitching. I think you mean to say that you would like to see effective cost-controlled pitching at the ML level.

Since 2020 the team has trended younger, albeit with a few short-term veteran stopgaps: notably Kluber, Bleier, and Jansen this year.

This year we should also add at least one of Mata, Walter, or Murphy to:
Bello: 24
Winckowski: 25
Crawford: 27
Houck: 27
Whitlock: 27
Kelly: 28

All those guys have full club control when they were brought up. I don't know if you want to count Taylor in the 3 year tally, but there's no reason not to.

Schreiber is 29 and Pivetta is 30 - but they were both acquired with more than 4 years of control time.

 

[chrisfont9]

We have an entire MiL staff of young pitching. I think you mean to say that you would like to see effective cost-controlled pitching at the ML level.

Since 2020 the team has trended younger, albeit with a few short-term veteran stopgaps: notably Kluber, Bleier, and Jansen this year.

Right, and the stopgaps to me are a very clear indicator of their actual plan. They are waiting. Whether it's internal development or free agents, they haven't wanted to go all in. Next winter will be a good time to go all-in on pitching. this year the top guy was Carlos Rodon. The support down on the farm is building but not especially ripe. It will take time.I wish more people could acknowledge the time scale that baseball works on. It's not like other sports.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Median age of Red Sox pitchers

2017: 28.4
2018: 28.9
2019: 29.0
2020: 28.9
2021: 29.6
2022: 30.1
2023: 31.1

 

[mikcou]

Where are those studies? Everything I've seen does not show much difference from what could be predicted by randomness.

The bigger concern with injuries is that they tend to start piling up as players get into their mid-to-upper 30's (for some even earlier). And the missed time as a result has a more deleterious impact on the player's career going forward.

Is Chris Sale any more likely to get hurt this season because he had TJ surgery in 2020 or fell of his bike last year? No. But he is more likely to be hurt because he just turned 34. And the combination of the missed time and his age means that the error bars on his expected effectiveness are much larger than anytime in the past.

I posted a study upthread that noted a meaningly recurrence of non-catastrophic shoulder injuries that indicates a statistically significant risk of increased risk of future shoulder injuries among pitchers who have had prior shoulder injuries. Soft tissue injuries have also had a number of studies (one posted upthread as well) that have shown increased risk of future soft tissue injuries.

You can not believe them, but you cant pretend they dont exist.

I also dont understand the starting point that injuries are random. It fundamentally goes against what we know about human bodies and how they move, age, etc. Not all of them are the same so at the most basic level assuming that each person is as likely as another to get hurt doesnt logically follow from what we know about humans at the most basic level.

 

[cannonball 1729]

You've made this claim a couple times. Do you have a link to one of these studies, or an article that cites them? Because intuitively, it makes sense that an injury weakens a muscle or ligament making it vulnerable to future injury. But does that apply to surgically repaired and properly rehabbed ligaments and tendons (like Tommy John surgery), or broken bones?

Just pulling a couple - I don't know if these address your exact question, but here's some info about injury recurrence:

This one's probably closest to what you're looking for, since it's actually just baseball players: BP wrote an article in 2013 positing that risk of recurrence is actually much higher than risk of first-time injury. Here are the salient charts:

Condition	Similar Event Last Year	No Similar Event Last Year
Had an elbow injury	27.4%	2.0%
Had a shoulder injury	32.4%	2.8%
Had any injury	73.4%	5.1%
Spent time on DL	43.7%	4.9%

Condition	Similar Event Two Years Ago	No Similar Event Two Years Ago
Had an elbow injury	15.2%	1.8%
Had a shoulder injury	23.2%	2.3%
Had any injury	55.6%	2.7%
Spent time on DL	34.2%	3.5%

​

There are also some studies by actual medical professionals that show a generic higher risk of injury among previously injured people. For instance:

- The NIH has a literature study from 2014:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4196323/

ACL injury was linked to a successive injury of the same ACL, and other injuries in the LE. HS was associated with subsequent ipsilateral HS and knee injuries. Previous achilles tendon rupture increased the risk of an analogous injury on the contralateral side. An ankle sprain was associated with a re‐injury of either the ipsilateral or the contralateral ankle. Post‐injury changes were present in strength, proprioception, and kinematics, which may have led to overall changes in motor control and function.

- Here's one from the NIH in 2022: that study tracked about 1400 people and found that while only about 1/3 of the participants ended up with some sort of injury, 55% of those with a previous injury ended up with some sort of injury.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9577931/

When specifically talking about Tommy John or pitching arm stuff...there's also some reason to think that TJ issues can be related to poor mechanics. Here's a study that shows that early trunk rotation is related to increased injury risk:

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2325967115581594

Using a Cox proportional hazards model for risk analysis using the measured number of innings pitched at time of surgery as an approximate index of exposure and adjusting for age and fastball speed at time of surgery, early trunk rotation was associated with significantly increased risk of shoulder and/or elbow surgery with hazard ratio estimate of 1.69 (95% CI, 1.02-2.80).

(Edit: For what it's worth, the study seems to lean in the direction that inverted W is an issue as well, but the evidence is not at the 95% confidence level, so no such conclusion could be reached.)

Someone who learned a certain type of pitching mechanics may well have a hard time changing their arm positioning and/or trunk rotation timing post-surgery, leading to the same injury again.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Median age of Red Sox pitchers

2017: 28.4
2018: 28.9
2019: 29.0
2020: 28.9
2021: 29.6
2022: 30.1
2023: 31.1

Now do the same with cost controlled years remaining.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

I mean, other than Whitlock and Bello, who are the cost-controlled pitchers to be excited about right now? Crawford and Winckowski look like either swingmen or middle relievers. The guys down on the farm are obviously not here yet and have plenty to work on; there's no Grayson Rodriguez waiting in Worcester. Pivetta is the definition of a league-average back-end starter. This isn't exactly the Astros or Dodgers flush with young cheap talent; this is more like the Pirates of the last five or so years, loaded up with 1-2 WAR players who earn the league minimum but are long shots to be anything more than that, at least so far.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I mean, other than Whitlock and Bello, who are the cost-controlled pitchers to be excited about right now? Crawford and Winckowski look like either swingmen or middle relievers. The guys down on the farm are obviously not here yet and have plenty to work on; there's no Grayson Rodriguez waiting in Worcester. Pivetta is the definition of a league-average back-end starter. This isn't exactly the Astros or Dodgers flush with young cheap talent; this is more like the Pirates of the last five or so years, loaded up with 1-2 WAR players who earn the league minimum but are long shots to be anything more than that, at least so far.

Houck?

 

[Rovin Romine]

I mean, other than Whitlock and Bello, who are the cost-controlled pitchers to be excited about right now? Crawford and Winckowski look like either swingmen or middle relievers. The guys down on the farm are obviously not here yet and have plenty to work on; there's no Grayson Rodriguez waiting in Worcester. Pivetta is the definition of a league-average back-end starter. This isn't exactly the Astros or Dodgers flush with young cheap talent; this is more like the Pirates of the last five or so years, loaded up with 1-2 WAR players who earn the league minimum but are long shots to be anything more than that, at least so far.

Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Mata (most likely, who is in Worcester).

Also, I don't understand your objection to the minors producing useful players. Why is that a problem? I mean if you could sign a 2019 Taylor, or a 2022 Schreiber, for the lowest possible contract (full control then arb years), wouldn't you?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Now do the same with cost controlled years remaining.

Nah, you can.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

Forgot about Houck, there's always one.

I have no objection to the minors producing useful players; that's what the minors are for. But 1-2 WAR dudes are the bare minimum when it comes to "useful," as we've seen with the 1-2 WAR dudes currently littering the lineup. And while I don't think all that pitching will amount to a handful of relievers and nothing more — I'm high on Whitlock and Bello both — let's not act like they've got a rotation of young studs ready to go. They have two guys who've looked good, a few more who are probably destined for the bullpen long-term (and for me that includes Houck), and some lottery tickets in the minors. It's a good thing that no one in that group will cost much, but they're not providing all that much value in the short or long run unless they break out in a big way.

 

[The Filthy One]

Forgot about Houck, there's always one.

I have no objection to the minors producing useful players; that's what the minors are for. But 1-2 WAR dudes are the bare minimum when it comes to "useful," as we've seen with the 1-2 WAR dudes currently littering the lineup. And while I don't think all that pitching will amount to a handful of relievers and nothing more — I'm high on Whitlock and Bello both — let's not act like they've got a rotation of young studs ready to go. They have two guys who've looked good, a few more who are probably destined for the bullpen long-term (and for me that includes Houck), and some lottery tickets in the minors. It's a good thing that no one in that group will cost much, but they're not providing all that much value in the short or long run unless they break out in a big way.

We don't really have 1-2 WAR dudes littering the lineup, though. At least, we didn't last year (too soon to tell what's going to shake out this year). Last year we had a lineup with 4 guys who posted more than 2 WAR (Boegarts, Devers, Story, Vazquez), and then replacement-level dreck or worse. It's the replacement-level dreck that's holding us back. If the farm produced a bunch of 1-2 WAR players over the last few years, the results would have looked a lot better.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Forgot about Houck, there's always one.

I have no objection to the minors producing useful players; that's what the minors are for. But 1-2 WAR dudes are the bare minimum when it comes to "useful," as we've seen with the 1-2 WAR dudes currently littering the lineup. And while I don't think all that pitching will amount to a handful of relievers and nothing more — I'm high on Whitlock and Bello both — let's not act like they've got a rotation of young studs ready to go. They have two guys who've looked good, a few more who are probably destined for the bullpen long-term (and for me that includes Houck), and some lottery tickets in the minors. It's a good thing that no one in that group will cost much, but they're not providing all that much value in the short or long run unless they break out in a big way.

This franchise is also not well-positioned to its division competitors when it comes to SP. Yankees have Cole, Rodon, Severino, Cortes. Jays have Gausman, Manoah, Bassitt with Tiedemann looming. Rays have like 1000 high impact arms and find new ones every year. Orioles don’t have a great rotation yet but do have high upside guys like Grayson. So, you could put us no higher than 4th and we don’t have the offense to overcome it.

I want whoever is GM of the Red Sox to go all out to sign Yamamoto when he’s posted.

 

[mikcou]

We don't really have 1-2 WAR dudes littering the lineup, though. At least, we didn't last year (too soon to tell what's going to shake out this year). Last year we had a lineup with 4 guys who posted more than 2 WAR (Boegarts, Devers, Story, Vazquez), and then replacement-level dreck or worse. It's the replacement-level dreck that's holding us back. If the farm produced a bunch of 1-2 WAR players over the last few years, the results would have looked a lot better.

Both JD and Verdugo were 1-2 win players. While I agree the problem last year was more that there were some terribad players (1B and whatever OF positions Verdugo wasnt playing). Were missing half of the players that you list as 2+ win players now.

Its a lot different to be looking for 1-2 win guys to fill in around two 5-6 win guys and a 3 win (Devers, Xander, Story) guy then a 5 win guy and a 3 win guy (Devers, Story). At some point, it cant be Devers/Story and 1-2.5 win players - thats just not a good team.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Both JD and Verdugo were 1-2 win players. While I agree the problem last year was more that there were some terribad players (1B and whatever OF positions Verdugo wasnt playing). Were missing half of the players that you list as 2+ win players now.

Its a lot different to be looking for 1-2 win guys to fill in around two 5-6 win guys and a 3 win (Devers, Xander, Story) guy then a 5 win guy and a 3 win guy (Devers, Story). At some point, it cant be Devers/Story and 1-2.5 win players - thats just not a good team.

The problem last year was injuries, pure and simple. WAR is somewhat disingenuous to use in this kind of discussion as it's a counting stat. Going into the season it was a high variance team with little depth.

As it was the Sox were 4th in runs in the AL, even losing Story and without any convincing backups other than Refsnyder. (Franchy, Pham, Duran, JBJ, Plawecki. . .ugh.)

However they were second to last in earned runs. Most would be tempted to blame a decimated rotation that included 14 unplanned starts by Winckowski, 12 by Crawford, 11 by Bello, 5 by Seabold. That's 37 starts by guys who weren't supposed to be up in 2023 unless they were pitching lights-out, and maybe not even then.

But even with them, the Sox were actually slightly above average re: their starting rotation. They were dead last with their bullpen. Some of that's a bit of a SP pull effect with Whitlock and Houck starting at times.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022.shtml

 

[Benj4ever]

Some higher upside than he's shown, plus generally lauded for defense and speed. He's a 4.3 WAR player even with the stops and starts, and that's before the change in baserunning. All of the reports were that he's streaky and can clearly hit but hasn't sustained it.

All of Chaim's moves seem more about the long term than 2023.

Agreed. That's why so many people love Dombrowski and hate Bloom. Personally, I don't mind if we go through a few lean years, as long as there is a greater payoff to be had.

 

[Benj4ever]

There are lots of studies that suggest that you are wrong, though…and that a guy who has already hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) is more likely to hurt his elbow (or shoulder or knee) than someone who hasn’t.

Injuries are also a sign of the body breaking down, which gives them predictive value on this basis alone.

 

[Benj4ever]

The problem last year was injuries, pure and simple. WAR is somewhat disingenuous to use in this kind of discussion as it's a counting stat. Going into the season it was a high variance team with little depth.

As it was the Sox were 4th in runs in the AL, even losing Story and without any convincing backups other than Refsnyder. (Franchy, Pham, Duran, JBJ, Plawecki. . .ugh.)

However they were second to last in earned runs. Most would be tempted to blame a decimated rotation that included 14 unplanned starts by Winckowski, 12 by Crawford, 11 by Bello, 5 by Seabold. That's 37 starts by guys who weren't supposed to be up in 2023 unless they were pitching lights-out, and maybe not even then.

But even with them, the Sox were actually slightly above average re: their starting rotation. They were dead last with their bullpen. Some of that's a bit of a SP pull effect with Whitlock and Houck starting at times.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2022.shtml

DING! DING! DING! Give the man a prize!

 

[simplicio]

Any word on Kelly yet?

 

[Whoop-La White]

Any word on Kelly yet?

There's this, which could be a good thing:

View: https://twitter.com/alexspeier/status/1647078948105224194

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1647618948270104576?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


Chris Martin “likely” to the IL with a bicep/shoulder issue

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1647618948270104576?s=46&t=Tl7uNH0-pxEyJtNj1BktDA


Chris Martin “likely” to the IL with a bicep/shoulder issue

Yellow flag treatment for Martin.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wonder who will get the call? Mata, Murphy, and Walter the only options that wouldn’t require a 40-man move (unless Kelly to the 60). With Bello coming up tomorrow, is it worth even making a move for one day?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Wonder who will get the call? Mata, Murphy, and Walter the only options that wouldn’t require a 40-man move (unless Kelly to the 60). With Bello coming up tomorrow, is it worth even making a move for one day?

If they go 18 innings and run out of pitchers

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wonder who will get the call? Mata, Murphy, and Walter the only options that wouldn’t require a 40-man move (unless Kelly to the 60). With Bello coming up tomorrow, is it worth even making a move for one day?

Walter started yesterday's game for Worcester, so he can be ruled out. Mata is the most rested, then Murphy. Either one could probably make the trip over from Worcester to sit in the bullpen as an emergency option.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

None of the above.

View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1647630812693577728

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wyatt Mills to the 60 day DL is the corresponding move

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Kelly to the 60 day DL.

Lefty reliever from Seattle claimed, optioned to Woostah.

https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-sox-claim-lefty-reliever-off-waivers-from-mariners/?mibextid=uc01c0

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Kelly to the 60 day DL.

Lefty reliever from Seattle claimed, optioned to Woostah.

https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-sox-claim-lefty-reliever-off-waivers-from-mariners/?mibextid=uc01c0

He has a name

Brennan Bernardino

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Faria DFA’d, Duran up, Dalbec down.

https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-sox-roster-moves-jarren-duran-returns-to-boston-bobby-dalbec-down/?mibextid=uc01c0

 

[Rovin Romine]

Faria DFA’d, Duran up, Dalbec down.

https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-sox-roster-moves-jarren-duran-returns-to-boston-bobby-dalbec-down/?mibextid=uc01c0

Duran's second shot in Boston will be interesting. He's not exactly tearing AAA up - but (SSS) 10 walks v. 11 Ks is an improvement, resulting in a .353 OBP, with some slugging for a .792 OPS.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Paxton out of the pen, perhaps?

https://nesn.com/2023/04/red-sox-trying-something-new-in-injured-starters-return/?mibextid=Zxz2cZ

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Paxton shelled tonight. 5 hits, 2 bb including a homer in 2/3 IP, in relief.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

Per Cora:
Story is hitting and fielding in Ft. Myers.

 

[iddoc]

Maybe he’ll be back before Mondesi

 

[joe dokes]

Per Cora:
Story is hitting and fielding in Ft. Myers.

Throwing?

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

Throwing?

Yep.

@SmittyOnMLB Red Sox' Trevor Story (returning from elbow surgery) threw up to 75 feet Friday. He also took swings.
View: https://twitter.com/smittyonmlb/status/1657462031325229056?s=46

 

[Ale Xander]

We’re going to have too many 2B eventually

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yep.

@SmittyOnMLB Red Sox' Trevor Story (returning from elbow surgery) threw up to 75 feet Friday. He also took swings.
View: https://twitter.com/smittyonmlb/status/1657462031325229056?s=46

It's going to be pretty awesome having a healthy Story joining this team.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

We’re going to have too many 2B eventually

2B can move to OF or 1B

 

[Pedroia's Itchy Nose]

We’re going to have too many 2B eventually

It's going to be pretty awesome having a healthy Story joining this team.

If I had to guess I'd say that Story's arrival is actually going to make the lineup worse. In the current roster he pushes out Kike, Valdez, or Arroyo. He could theoretically displace Duran but unless Duran completely craters in the next couple weeks I don't think that's possible. I can't imagine that they will boot Kike as Story's return allows him (hopefully) to shift to 2B/super sub where is is better defensively. When Arroyo is back off the DL the team will have to choose between DFA'ing Arroyo (no options) or sending Valdez down, and I have a very hard time imagining the team just giving up all of Arroyo's remaining control in order to keep starting Valdez.

Even if Valdez isn't likely to sustain a .367 wOBA, Story isn't likely to reach that mark either. I suppose if his surgery helps him return to 2018-2020 form then it's possible, but that would be a pretty massive reversal of his trendlines.

The team is only likely to see offensive improvement if Story is replacing Kike or Arroyo in the lineup. I suppose that's possible if Arroyo stays on the IL, but aside from that scenario I think he's likely replacing Valdez.

That's a huge upgrade defensively, but lets not pretend it's likely to result in the team hitting better than it is now.

EDIT: I should be clear that neither of you are saying that Story will improve the offense, but I do think some people are at least implying that (here and elsewhere). I agree that the defensive improvement may well qualify as pretty awesome!

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

That's a huge upgrade defensively, but lets not pretend it's likely to result in the team hitting better than it is now.

Well, I guess the question is how much you believe in Valdez vs Story at the plate. Valdez has had an encouraging first 45 ABs in the bigs but I'll bet on a healthy Story over the course of the season. And the fact is, if Valdez truly is the real deal, they'll find at bats for him as well.

 

[YTF]

If I had to guess I'd say that Story's arrival is actually going to make the lineup worse. In the current roster he pushes out Kike, Valdez, or Arroyo. He could theoretically displace Duran but unless Duran completely craters in the next couple weeks I don't think that's possible. I can't imagine that they will boot Kike as Story's return allows him (hopefully) to shift to 2B/super sub where is is better defensively. When Arroyo is back off the DL the team will have to choose between DFA'ing Arroyo (no options) or sending Valdez down, and I have a very hard time imagining the team just giving up all of Arroyo's remaining control in order to keep starting Valdez.

Even if Valdez isn't likely to sustain a .367 wOBA, Story isn't likely to reach that mark either. I suppose if his surgery helps him return to 2018-2020 form then it's possible, but that would be a pretty massive reversal of his trendlines.

The team is only likely to see offensive improvement if Story is replacing Kike or Arroyo in the lineup. I suppose that's possible if Arroyo stays on the IL, but aside from that scenario I think he's likely replacing Valdez.

That's a huge upgrade defensively, but lets not pretend it's likely to result in the team hitting better than it is now.

EDIT: I should be clear that neither of you are saying that Story will improve the offense, but I do think some people are at least implying that (here and elsewhere). I agree that the defensive improvement may well qualify as pretty awesome!

Arroyo/Chang/Valdez is going to require some decision making. Then you need to factor in Mondasi, but honestly I'm not overly concerned with that decision. I think Mondasi makes Arroyo expendable, Chang gets sent down and perhaps there is room for Valdez on the bench. With the positional flexibility of Hernandez, Story, Mondesi there should some sort of workable rotation for there to be plenty of ABs to go around, give guys semi regular days off and in some respect strengthen the bench.