The #4 Pick

Who do you think the Sox take?


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    172

OCD SS

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We're less than two weeks to draft day, and we're getting a little more clarity, and it seems like this draft just doesn't have a play with an absolute lock on 1/1. Depending on your view there may be as many as 8 guys who could shuffle around the top picks, with slot values and signability further muddying the waters. Chaim doesn't have a long track record for us to draw on, but it really seems based on reports and rumors the worst thing for the Sox's draft board would be for the first three picks to go

1. Mayer
2. Leiter
3. Davis

Leaving the Sox to take who with # 4?
 

brandonchristensen

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Feb 4, 2012
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Is Leiter back to not being available. Son of a bitch.
I don’t follow much so I’m saying Rocker.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Jul 15, 2005
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I went with Rocker in this scenario, as I dumbly want them to take the best college player available here. But Lawler would be fine. My nephew played ball at one point with Frelick, so he'd be my sentimental pick.
 

OCD SS

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Is Leiter back to not being available. Son of a bitch.
I don’t follow much so I’m saying Rocker.
To be clear, I have no idea. I just find this super interesting from a game theory standpoint, where the Sox have only been linked to Mayer in the most absurd, break the draft way, and their other preferences are the clear top college arm and college bat. If they get lucky and Leiter forces his way down I'm sure they'd grab him, but I just don't see the best college arm lasting this long, or him going back to school if someone calls his bluff.
 

Just a bit outside

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I picked Lawler. Everything I read says he has all the tools. I’m not sold on Rocker as I don’t believe he will get professional hitters to chase his slider the way college hitters do.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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I won't even pretend to know who the Sox will take - there's a million factors. I just think the team is headed in the right direction, with a bunch of up and comers in the system, and I want them to take advantage of this draft position and get a true stud.
 

AlNipper49

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I want nothing to do with Rocker. He’s either going to be awesome or fucking awful and not the type of lottery ticket that I want at #4.
 

ehaz

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I’d be happy with Rocker or whichever of the three high school SS Chaim likes the most.

Personally, that’s Watson for me because of his relative youth and I think the best potential hit tool.
 

AlNipper49

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Grey-haired Lawlar is headed to Vandy but fit he Sox pick him I think he’ll sign. He’s the best hitter in this draft by a fairly wide margin IMHO.
 

Niastri

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To be clear, I have no idea. I just find this super interesting from a game theory standpoint, where the Sox have only been linked to Mayer in the most absurd, break the draft way, and their other preferences are the clear top college arm and college bat. If they get lucky and Leiter forces his way down I'm sure they'd grab him, but I just don't see the best college arm lasting this long, or him going back to school if someone calls his bluff.
Unlike the vast majority of drafted players, Leiter comes from real money. The risk to him of going back to school is less than most. If he starts playing rough to get to the Sox, nobody is going to call his bluff and risk losing him back to Vanderbilt. He could drop to the Sox if that's what he wants.

Assuming he is not available, I'll go with Lawler as a gut feeling.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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Unlike the vast majority of drafted players, Leiter comes from real money. The risk to him of going back to school is less than most. If he starts playing rough to get to the Sox, nobody is going to call his bluff and risk losing him back to Vanderbilt. He could drop to the Sox if that's what he wants.
Isn't it just the opposite? Isn't the fact that he comes from money mean that the risk of him going back to school is greater than most?
FWIW, I don't think there is a chance in hell that he does this, but I don't understand your logic.
 

Niastri

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Isn't it just the opposite? Isn't the fact that he comes from money mean that the risk of him going back to school is greater than most?
FWIW, I don't think there is a chance in hell that he does this, but I don't understand your logic.
The risk of going back to school and having a career ending injury or merely performing poorly and hurting your draft standing is the downside. You stand to lose a lot of money if you do.

A kid who comes from nothing is insane to reject even an insanely low-ball offer, because if he goes back to school and gets hurt, he's got nothing to fall back on... In this worst case scenario, Leiter is still the son of a guy who made $68 million in the big leagues. The risk isn't as high, even if everything falls apart.

The upside is he gets to pick his team and that sounds like it's worth something to him, maybe also because of his pedigree.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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The risk of going back to school and having a career ending injury or merely performing poorly and hurting your draft standing is the downside. You stand to lose a lot of money if you do.

A kid who comes from nothing is insane to reject even an insanely low-ball offer, because if he goes back to school and gets hurt, he's got nothing to fall back on... In this worst case scenario, Leiter is still the son of a guy who made $68 million in the big leagues. The risk isn't as high, even if everything falls apart.

The upside is he gets to pick his team and that sounds like it's worth something to him, maybe also because of his pedigree.
Got it. You're talking about the risk to him of going back to school, and I'm talking about the risk to the teams of him going back to school.
 

scottyno

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Unless we think there's a systematic reason that still exists why they haven't had much success developing young pitching in the last 10-15 years I'll take the pitcher, the system feels like it needs that more than another position player
 

amRadio

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Feb 7, 2019
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Rocker.

I think Rocker had a shaky outing on national TV and had some velocity issues this year - that were seemingly a blip on the radar - and now his perceived stock is somewhat down among fans and pundits. Rocker will have a great pro career. The percentage of outs Rocker gets with his offspeed pitches suggests to me there is a chance he will adjust to pitching out of a professional rotation relatively quickly. In mid-May according to fangraphs over 70% of his career K's in college have come on curves. Facing professional line-ups multiple times in the same game requires more than an elite fastball. Rocker has the depth of repertoire to make the jump and his fastball isn't far behind where Leiter's is.

The improvement in his overall stat line from his freshman year to now has also been impressive:

1.094 WHIP, 7.9 H/9, 1.9 BB/9, 10.3 K/9 and a 3.25 ERA in 99 IP his freshman year vs. 0.934 WHIP, 5.5 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 13.2 K/9 and a 2.73 ERA in 122 IP this season.

The statistical improvement, the overall D1 control related numbers (4.72 K:BB, 2.6 BB/9), and the physicality really make me think he a has higher ceiling compared to any other notable pitcher in the draft - even if his floor isn't as high as Leiter, arguably. Build-wise he looks a lot like Strasburg, he's 6-5 and 240+ with tree trunk legs. He just looks like a guy who has 200+ IP written all over him. Aaron Nola is the only college pitcher in the last decade that jumps to mind as a better prospect going into the draft.

That said, Detroit will never let him pass them by. I think it's much more likely that Leiter is on the board at 4 and Rocker is not, but I'm just guessing. I think the most exciting thing for a Red Sox fan would be if Leiter and Rocker were both available and Chaim has his pick of the Vanderbilt litter.

E: a couple words and a couple punctuation errors.
 
Last edited:

tmracht

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Unless we think there's a systematic reason that still exists why they haven't had much success developing young pitching in the last 10-15 years I'll take the pitcher, the system feels like it needs that more than another position player
Absolutely, developing pitchers is hard. But I would say taking a top tier arm would be worth the risk at 4 if you feel they are a true difference maker potential.
 

OCD SS

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I keep going round and round on this; but I'm coming around on Rocker as well. I think it's less about what he's done and much more about what he can do with MLB development, coaching, nutrition & training, etc. Verlander wasn't Verlander coming out of college.

I really think Jobe is probably the best pitcher in the draft, but I just can't see the Sox taking a HS arm. This is who I'd really like to vote for, but I just can't bring myself to do it.

Lawler feels a bit like Tim Beckham to me; no truly outstanding tool, his performance as an older player this season raise some flags.

I could see it being Watson, and his size doesn't bother me too much (especially if you look at his athleticism) if the Sox think he still has some room to grow or fill out, but I'd want him to stay at SS. I'll also admit to a bit of recency bias here.

I've never really considered House or any of the others; I think with this much uncertainty at the top of the draft the Sox aren't going to be able to get one of these guys to go under slot by enough to change their board, and I don't think they're taking anyone outside these 8.
 

Sin Duda

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I don't follow draft prospects as many of you do, but Rocker has been my wish list candidate since he exploded on the scene in the 2019 CWS. He has the size, the work ethic, the pitchability, and the pedigree (Dad was a NFLer) to project as an Ace or #2. And I like that he's biracial. I think that allows him to leverage the best of two cultures (ala Patrick Mahomes). I actually think athletes with multi-racial backgrounds is a Moneyballesque characteristic that is unexplored or undervalued.
 

mikeford

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I'm happy with Rocker or Leiter. We likely lose Eovaldi after next season and it would be good to have one of these guys, with ace potential, to pencil into that #3 role behind Sale and ERod.
 

Apisith

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I'm happy with Rocker or Leiter. We likely lose Eovaldi after next season and it would be good to have one of these guys, with ace potential, to pencil into that #3 role behind Sale and ERod.
Will we lose Eovaldi? If we offer him the QO, would he take it? He’d be entering his age 33 season. The QO would be worth around $20m. I don’t think he gets more than 3 years at $18m/year in the open market without a QO attached. There’s too much variance with him and also injury risk. If a team has to lose a second round pick and draft money then I think it’s highly likely that he’ll take the QO. Gausman is a good comp for someone who’s not worth losing a pick over but still worth a lot of money.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm happy with Rocker or Leiter. We likely lose Eovaldi after next season and it would be good to have one of these guys, with ace potential, to pencil into that #3 role behind Sale and ERod.
ERod is potentially gone after this year. And is it a reasonable expectation that either of those guys will be in the big leagues by 2023?
 

DeadlySplitter

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You don't draft for need in MLB. What happens to Eovaldi or ERod isn't a consideration.

Now it happens this system could use a premium catching prospect or a premium #2 or higher starter pitching prospect. But you can argue a premium infield prospect (by definition, with a chance to stick at SS) with X's optout on the horizon is also important.

So yeah, no draft for need. There's always several needs when talking about 5 years down the line.
 

mikeford

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ERod is potentially gone after this year. And is it a reasonable expectation that either of those guys will be in the big leagues by 2023?
Well Chris Sale is signed through 2025, so I certainly hope so.

But I wasn't thinking of this in terms as far away as 2023. Both these guys are college pitchers and in the case of Rocker, not brand new college pitchers either.
Are we still looking at a timeline that doesn't see a debut until 2023 for both of these guys? If we are then that's just me being overly optimistic that one of these guys would be ready next year.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Well Chris Sale is signed through 2025, so I certainly hope so.

But I wasn't thinking of this in terms as far away as 2023. Both these guys are college pitchers and in the case of Rocker, not brand new college pitchers either.
Are we still looking at a timeline that doesn't see a debut until 2023 for both of these guys? If we are then that's just me being overly optimistic that one of these guys would be ready next year.
David Price was drafted in 2007 and debuted out of the bullpen for the Rays in September+postseason of 2008. That's about the most aggressive timeline possible, so if Leiter/Rocker/whoever had no setbacks/difficulties in the minors, it's possible they could be September call-ups in 2022. I think much more likely would be a debut sometime in 2023 (either right out of the gate if they perform well in spring training, or mid-late season if they need more seasoning).
 

JimD

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David Price was drafted in 2007 and debuted out of the bullpen for the Rays in September+postseason of 2008. That's about the most aggressive timeline possible, so if Leiter/Rocker/whoever had no setbacks/difficulties in the minors, it's possible they could be September call-ups in 2022. I think much more likely would be a debut sometime in 2023 (either right out of the gate if they perform well in spring training, or mid-late season if they need more seasoning).
Steven Strasburg had the quickest rise I can remember in recent years - drafted in 2009, started 2010 in AA, promoted to AAA in May and up to Washington in June. He started all of 16 games in the fall league and the minors.
 

Dduncan6er

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Well Chris Sale is signed through 2025, so I certainly hope so.

But I wasn't thinking of this in terms as far away as 2023. Both these guys are college pitchers and in the case of Rocker, not brand new college pitchers either.
Are we still looking at a timeline that doesn't see a debut until 2023 for both of these guys? If we are then that's just me being overly optimistic that one of these guys would be ready next year.
We're talking about MLB draft picks. It's quite possible that that neither ever make the majors at all. I wouldn't bet on that but it's certainly well within the range of outcomes. The front office is certainly not drafting either of them assuming they will be difference makers in the rotation within the next couple years. Obviously that's the hope when you take a guy at 4 but it's far from a given and the front office knows that.
 

Detts

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Leiter will be long gone. I went Lawler because he is a stud and will most certainly get the ‘full college scholarship’ clause if he doesn’t make the majors making his signing guaranteed
 

DJnVa

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Based on the OPs premise that Leiter and Davis are gone, I go with Lawler.
 

Just a bit outside

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How much is a guy being drafted later in draft going to pull in if he stays in the college?
I don’t think it will be a tremendous amount but if it is a few thousand and it becomes close to a late round signing bonus I could see a college junior maybe deciding it is worth it to stay in school for one more year.