The Alex Cora Difference

Minneapolis Millers

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It's hard to know how much of the "good clubhouse" tone is set by the manager and how much by the players. It varies from clubhouse to clubhouse, I think. Cora's a "players' manager," but he also appears to have a team that's relatively devoid of me-first, ego guys. "Humble" is how many of the players describe their teammates, and the veteran studs - Sale, JD, Kimbrel - seem to work hard, letting their play speak louder than their words. Price can be the most surly of the bunch, and he's only occasionally so.
 

judyb

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I've often wondered if Farrell would still be managing this team if they'd found a way to replace Ortiz's bat and his and Lovullo's personalities with more similar types of those things.
 

joe dokes

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I've often wondered if Farrell would still be managing this team if they'd found a way to replace Ortiz's bat and his and Lovullo's personalities with more similar types of those things.
Ortiz's bat is replaceable. His personality is hard to find. Both in one person? They don't come along very often.
But to your question, I think not. As others have said, there's a "right guy, right team" element at work. Maybe Farrell was the "wrong" guy for this group. Maybe Cora's just "right-er." Either way, he seems to have been a boon to several players.
 

lexrageorge

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I'd say Farrell was probably league average as a strategist and tactician. He made some head scratcher moves, but also made a lot of moves that worked out as well. He was a good match for the 2013 team.

I think part of the problem was that the league changed, and the ownership and GM (er, VP of baseball ops) wanted Farrell to change his approach, but that wasn't going to happen. John Henry made the comment that they made a big change/upgrade when they brought in a whole new coaching staff.

I think Tito proved that a shelf life of even a really good manager is finite in a place like Boston.
 

canderson

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I love Dustin Pedroia with the fire of 1,000 suns but I also wonder if having him away has helped forge a different clubhouse environment with Sale, JD and Mookie. They are known for working with the younger players before, during and after games to help them grow.

Mookie’s absolute joy of the game is shining more than ever imo, watching him play and interact with teammates mid-game is a pure joy.

With Cora’s clearly different approach, I just wonder how much an absence of a very intense personality might help a team progress.
 

Adrian's Dome

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I love Dustin Pedroia with the fire of 1,000 suns but I also wonder if having him away has helped forge a different clubhouse environment with Sale, JD and Mookie. They are known for working with the younger players before, during and after games to help them grow.

Mookie’s absolute joy of the game is shining more than ever imo, watching him play and interact with teammates mid-game is a pure joy.

With Cora’s clearly different approach, I just wonder how much an absence of a very intense personality might help a team progress.
I don't know if I buy that. The only time we've really seen Pedey clash was right off the bat with Valentine, and...well, given retrospect, he wasn't wrong. I think if he were around he'd be all-in on eating up whatever plate Cora's serving given the results.
 

AbbyNoho

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All the reporting I've ever seen about Pedroia and Cora - dating back to when they were both infielders for the 2007 World Champions - were that they got along really well. Pedroia claimed Cora really helped him adapt to life in the big leagues. I doubt Pedroia would be doing anything other than going all-in on Cora's program.
 

canderson

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I don’t think Pedrpia would be anti-Cora, if it cane across that way I didn’t express what I meant well enough. I just question if his absence has allowed others to step up and take leadership and ownership.
 

InstaFace

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I'd say Farrell was probably league average as a strategist and tactician. (...)

I think part of the problem was that the league changed, and the ownership and GM (er, VP of baseball ops) wanted Farrell to change his approach, but that wasn't going to happen. John Henry made the comment that they made a big change/upgrade when they brought in a whole new coaching staff.

I think Tito proved that a shelf life of even a really good manager is finite in a place like Boston.
I think you're under-selling Farrell's talents, but that's water under the bridge, and either way I think your analysis is sound.

But Tito - I think you can lay the blame for that separation at the feet of ownership and Theo, not with him. He didn't lose his fastball; he's still the best manager in baseball. He's been dragging every ounce of potential out of a marginally-above-average Indians roster, year after year. The Indians - the Cleveland Indians! - have had a winning record every year since he showed up, shortly 6 years in a row. He'll be in the Division Series again this year with a fair shot to advance, leading his division by 12 games with a great rotation, an average lineup with one superstar, and a debacle of a bullpen. We had him, then a bunch of petty bullshit happened, and now he's managing another team. And sweeping us in division serieses (a result I wouldn't bet on seeing repeated, but I was cocky in 2016 too).

So Cora has a long way to go before he reaches the near-Belichickian status that Tito holds in my estimation. However, no matter how his career pans out, he'll always be able to point to the 2018 Sox and say, show me a manager who's done that. Okay, Lou Piniella and Joe Torre, sure. That's pretty good company, and it'd be hard for anyone to argue that other claimants to Best Manager In Baseball over the years have done anything as magical as what we're seeing Cora orchestrate right now, in front of our eyes.
 

JimD

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But Tito - I think you can lay the blame for that separation at the feet of ownership and Theo, not with him.
I blame meddling from ownership for the downfall and departure of both from the Red Sox organization. Epstein should have had the unquestioned power over baseball operations that Dave Dowmbrowski now enjoys. If Theo was in a better place in his own position within the hierarchy and had more control, I think he'd have been in a position to intervene and not let things with Tito go downhill.
 

williams_482

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an average lineup with one superstar
Which current MVP candidate are you referring to here?

Nothing against Tito, who has certainly proven his capabilities both here and in Cleveland, but he's got a pretty great team to manage down there.
 

InstaFace

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Which current MVP candidate are you referring to here?

Nothing against Tito, who has certainly proven his capabilities both here and in Cleveland, but he's got a pretty great team to manage down there.
Jose Ramirez, of course. If you think Lindor is an MVP candidate, you can get some seriously tasty odds from vegas on that right now. Heck, forget vegas, I'll take your money.

Managers get the blame when the team goes south, but the players get the credit when they win. So it's hard to perceive the hidden hand of the manager in things like decreased games lost to injury (or decreasing effectiveness) due to player rotation, or Trevor Bauer going from league-average pitcher to Cy Young candidate.

Then, zoom out a bit to look at the franchise's context. They are 14th in the league in payroll, 20th in attendance, in an area where the GDP per capita is going down. When Francona took over, they'd made the playoffs once in the previous 11 years, had just lost 94 games and were viewed as having a talent-stripped roster. They made the playoffs his first year, are about to make it 4 in 6, and had a run to game 7 of the WS where he was widely regarded as having managed circles around his opposing numbers.

So, how would that roster have developed absent Tito? How would players have been put in a position to succeed, how would decisions about giving certain kids a chance be made, or have everyone's motivation and morale kept high? I can't prove a counterfactual, but what circumstantial evidence we have suggests that it's not just "a pretty great team" in some objective sense - he deserves plenty of credit for making it so.
 

williams_482

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Jose Ramirez, of course. If you think Lindor is an MVP candidate, you can get some seriously tasty odds from vegas on that right now. Heck, forget vegas, I'll take your money.
I doubt very much that Lindor will win the MVP this year, but he is every bit superstar 1(b) behind Ramirez on that team.

Managers get the blame when the team goes south, but the players get the credit when they win. So it's hard to perceive the hidden hand of the manager in things like decreased games lost to injury (or decreasing effectiveness) due to player rotation, or Trevor Bauer going from league-average pitcher to Cy Young candidate.

Then, zoom out a bit to look at the franchise's context. They are 14th in the league in payroll, 20th in attendance, in an area where the GDP per capita is going down. When Francona took over, they'd made the playoffs once in the previous 11 years, had just lost 94 games and were viewed as having a talent-stripped roster. They made the playoffs his first year, are about to make it 4 in 6, and had a run to game 7 of the WS where he was widely regarded as having managed circles around his opposing numbers.

So, how would that roster have developed absent Tito? How would players have been put in a position to succeed, how would decisions about giving certain kids a chance be made, or have everyone's motivation and morale kept high? I can't prove a counterfactual, but what circumstantial evidence we have suggests that it's not just "a pretty great team" in some objective sense - he deserves plenty of credit for making it so.
There is so much we don't know and can't know about a manager's influence on the team around him. I seriously doubt Tito so impactful that he was the driving factor bringing the Indians back to relevance, especially relative to whatever a "replacement level manager" looks like, but because I can't even begin to find concrete evidence for or against any stance here I'm not going to argue very hard.

I will say this: Tito ranks pretty well in player polls (lots of players would like to play for him, very few specifically wouldn't), he was never big on unnecessary "small ball," and he's been exceptionally good at leveraging his relievers in October. Those are maybe the most important parts of his job that we can actually see in action, and all of them are clear strengths.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jose Ramirez, of course. If you think Lindor is an MVP candidate, you can get some seriously tasty odds from vegas on that right now. Heck, forget vegas, I'll take your money.
As off the charts as he's been, Ramirez has really produced only slightly more value for his team than Lindor this year. Both BBref and Fangraphs agree that Lindor is the fourth most valuable position player in the AL this year, right after his teammate.

MVP or not, we're talking about a 24-year-old plus defender at the second-toughest position on the field, currently sporting a 150 wRC+ and about to go over 30 HR for the second year in a row. He's the best shortstop in baseball, at a time of historic depth at the position. If that's not a superstar, the bar is set too high.
 

trekfan55

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I like what I have seen from Cora so far. A manager is often measured on the few moves he can make that make a difference. Baseball is one of the sports where the manager least affects the play by play. We know all that.

But we have seen his effect on the players. We have seen him make some good moves, like a double switch that allowed a pitcher to remain an extra inning (Workman batting in St Louis anyone?) and mix and match relievers when he has no real set in stone option behind Kimbrel. And the PR move in the Sunday night Yankee game as well.

As an interesting anecdote, he told Mookie they had a book on him, he takes the first two pitches. Maybe that changed his approach and he is now on track for an MVP caliber season.

As for Tito, he is absolutely one of the best managers I have seen. His olayoff management was always incredible. He reached the 2016 WS and Game 7 with a rotation that was held together with duct tape. Not to mention one of his key pitchers sliced his hand playing with a drone.
 

InstaFace

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OK, I'm not going to go to the mat to argue that Francona's lineup is average. Upon further review, it's clearly not. I'll just stand on the assertion that we have ample evidence to conclude that Tito personally is spectacular in:

1. In-game tactical management (lineup, starter hook, bullpen management, PHing, calling plays)
2. Season-long roster strategy (resting stars, giving the kids playtime, DL decisions)
3. Maintaining morale, focus, and managing personalities
4. Adjusting his approach in the playoffs

Collectively, that's made him our favorite Sox manager since at least Dick Williams, and I think any assertion that his "act got stale" places too much blame at his feet, relative to his bosses' feet.

But pivoting back to Cora, we've only really seen a very happy roster (#3), some good strategic decisions and no apparent blunders (#2), and at least a B+/A- effort on in-game tactics (#1) and arguably better than that. We of course have no data on #4.

Does anyone want to argue that he's among the best in the business, 2/3s through his first season, at 1 or 2? I dunno what his Headscratchers-Per-Game rate stats are, we haven't really kept close track this year, my impression is that they're low but not lowest-in-the-league.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Nobody in their right mind is going to argue that Cora is one of the best in the business with only a 3/4 of a season sample size, it's not nearly enough to work with. Saying that as a big Cora fan.

The only real thing to say is "pleased with everything to this point, things are trending in the correct direction, I hope it all continues."
 

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Okay: a question. Do Sox hitters have the freedom to hit 3-0, or did Cora actually make that decision last night. In a tie game with a runner on first and no outs, Sandy Leon swings3-0. It seems to me that everyone should be praying for a walk there. I’d rather have him take three straight! There was nobody out. Then with a runner on first and no outs down 4-1, Pearce swings 3-0 after a new pitcher comes in and throws three way out of the zone. No wonder they never had any rallies. I hope this stops.
 

Zupcic Fan

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Lose: change what policy? If there is a policy that all hitters on the Red Sox have a green light on 3-0, no matter the circumstances, then I’m strongly against that policy. I don’t think Sandy Leon is a good enough hitter to make that decision.
 

burstnbloom

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They said on the broadcast a few nights ago that Cora doesnt believe in a take sign and that he wants the hitters to be smart on 3-0, but to have the freedom to be aggressive if they get their pitch.
 

patoaflac

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They said on the broadcast a few nights ago that Cora doesnt believe in a take sign and that he wants the hitters to be smart on 3-0, but to have the freedom to be aggressive if they get their pitch.
One thing about being smart is to know who you are. Of course Sandy, Nunez, JBJ, Holt and Swihart should be taking at least one strike.
 

SirPsychoSquints

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One thing about being smart is to know who you are. Of course Sandy, Nunez, JBJ, Holt and Swihart should be taking at least one strike.
Interesting to note (and I’m skeptical if sample size here), the Sox have almost the exact league OBP in counts that reach 3-0 but are about a hundred points lower than league slugging (546 v 418).
 

Savin Hillbilly

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They said on the broadcast a few nights ago that Cora doesnt believe in a take sign and that he wants the hitters to be smart on 3-0, but to have the freedom to be aggressive if they get their pitch.
That kind of faith in your players is nice, and probably pays dividends that are a little less granular and easy to identify than a bad 3-0 swing decision.

I guess my only question would be, is there any accountability when the hitters aren't smart on 3-0?
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Lose: change what policy? If there is a policy that all hitters on the Red Sox have a green light on 3-0, no matter the circumstances, then I’m strongly against that policy. I don’t think Sandy Leon is a good enough hitter to make that decision.
I am just saying that this policy of allowing hitters to swing away on 3 and 0 has seemed to work pretty well for the first 125 or so games of the season
 

Zupcic Fan

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I don't know. Like you, I watch most of pretty much every game and can only recall a few instances of a 3-0 swing, The two last night, another time that Leon made an out, and one time when someone hit a double or triple at an important moment. In Leon's case, I remember many instances where he swung at a clearcut ball on 2-0 and 3-1, so I hate a green light for him 3-0. I would hope that Cora has a sign to remove the 3-0 green light in certain situations, but I don't know if that's the case.
Certainly there are good 3-0 green lights (like the one Smoak had to tie the game against Kimbral when nobody else on the Blue Jays could hit) but I hated the two last night. I guess I'm saying it should be situational and not across the board for everyone at all times.
 

ledsox

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Okay: a question. Do Sox hitters have the freedom to hit 3-0, or did Cora actually make that decision last night. In a tie game with a runner on first and no outs, Sandy Leon swings3-0. It seems to me that everyone should be praying for a walk there. I’d rather have him take three straight! There was nobody out. Then with a runner on first and no outs down 4-1, Pearce swings 3-0 after a new pitcher comes in and throws three way out of the zone. No wonder they never had any rallies. I hope this stops.

I think the general rule (in the game) that Cora adheres to is that if the swing can tie or put you in the lead a green light is advisable. The first rule of hitting is get a good pitch to hit so this makes sense to me.

When Pearce swung 3-0 last night the score was actually tied in the top of the 6th. I have no issue with a green light there.
 

Al Zarilla

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I think the general rule (in the game) that Cora adheres to is that if the swing can tie or put you in the lead a green light is advisable. The first rule of hitting is get a good pitch to hit so this makes sense to me.

When Pearce swung 3-0 last night the score was actually tied in the top of the 6th. I have no issue with a green light there.
Somebody added up (or subtracted) all the pieces of time that there are from when the ball leaves the pitcher's hand, and you see it, to when you have to decide to swing or not, and got something like 18 milliseconds. I'd tell guys to let 3-0 go unless they can recognize an obvious straight 85 mph pitch is coming.
 

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I don't know. Like you, I watch most of pretty much every game and can only recall a few instances of a 3-0 swing, The two last night, another time that Leon made an out, and one time when someone hit a double or triple at an important moment. In Leon's case, I remember many instances where he swung at a clearcut ball on 2-0 and 3-1, so I hate a green light for him 3-0. I would hope that Cora has a sign to remove the 3-0 green light in certain situations, but I don't know if that's the case.
Certainly there are good 3-0 green lights (like the one Smoak had to tie the game against Kimbral when nobody else on the Blue Jays could hit) but I hated the two last night. I guess I'm saying it should be situational and not across the board for everyone at all times.
They've been talking about it on the broadcast for a little while now.

Yes, it's a policy of Cora's. No, he has no stop sign for 3-0. Or so we have been told.
 

The Needler

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Somebody added up (or subtracted) all the pieces of time that there are from when the ball leaves the pitcher's hand, and you see it, to when you have to decide to swing or not, and got something like 18 milliseconds. I'd tell guys to let 3-0 go unless they can recognize an obvious straight 85 mph pitch is coming.
The last study I saw from pitchf/x data found that 95% of pitches thrown on 3-0 were fastballs. And 79% were strikes. There’s probably an identifiable break even point based on the hitter’s slugging percentage, ie, his odds of a result much better than a walk.
 

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The last study I saw from pitchf/x data found that 95% of pitches thrown on 3-0 were fastballs. And 79% were strikes. There’s probably an identifiable break even point based on the hitter’s slugging percentage, ie, his odds of a result much better than a walk.
It's also not as though the information is something the batter doesn't know going up there or that Cora would be supplying any additional information by calling in an inflexible instruction.

I wonder what effect, if any, informing opposing teams that there is no red light on 3-0 has on the pitcher.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That doesn't fully answer the question, of course. That just shows you what happened in the 7 times the ball was put in play.
And the 109 times they let ball four pass.

If they swing and miss, or allow a called strike to pass, is it really relevant or instructive as to the effectiveness of the strategy? Put another way, is the count going from 3-0 to 3-1 any different than the count going from 2-1 to 3-1?
 

The Needler

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And the 109 times they let ball four pass.

If they swing and miss, or allow a called strike to pass, is it really relevant or instructive as to the effectiveness of the strategy? Put another way, is the count going from 3-0 to 3-1 any different than the count going from 2-1 to 3-1?
Sometimes players swing at balls outside of the strike zone. And in 5 instances (out of 7), players swung at a 3-0 pitch that resulted in an out, which could have resulted in reaching base (or an XBH) later in the count. After all, in a much more significant sample, the team has put up a .324 avg. and .704 SLG on a 3-1 count.
 

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Sometimes players swing at balls outside of the strike zone. And in 5 instances (out of 7), players swung at a 3-0 pitch that resulted in an out, which could have resulted in reaching base (or an XBH) later in the count. After all, in a much more significant sample, the team has put up a .324 avg. and .704 SLG on a 3-1 count.
Does anybody know how to calculate OBP?
 

The Needler

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Does anybody know how to calculate OBP?
Yeah. It's .700. Not sure how that's really relevant in this context though.

Pitchers are throwing 79% strikes on 3-0 and about 62% strikes on 3-1. So you've got an expected OBP of over .500 if you just take two pitches on 3-0. So as I said previously, you need to SLG above a certain point to make up for the loss in OBP by swinging.
 

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Yeah. It's .700. Not sure how that's really relevant in this context though.

Pitchers are throwing 79% strikes on 3-0 and about 62% strikes on 3-1. So you've got an expected OBP of over .500 if you just take two pitches on 3-0. So as I said previously, you need to SLG above a certain point to make up for the loss in OBP by swinging.
Even with "the green light," they're walking 94% of the time.

I don't think the green light actually changes as much as the amount of discussion about it the last couple of weeks would imply.
 

The Needler

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Even with "the green light," they're walking 94% of the time.

I don't think the green light actually changes as much as the amount of discussion about it the last couple of weeks would imply.
I never said it did. I actually favor a green light for most players. My first post explained that pitchers were throwing 95% fastballs, and 79% strikes. MLB hitters should be able to pick a ball to hit when they know a fastball is coming. But some (weaker) hitters should probably be taking. Not exactly groundbreaking.
 

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I did not watch today’s game or listen to more than a few innings. So I don’t know if either AB or JD is banged up.

Assuming both are healthy, I think Cora blundered in sitting them at the same time today. A team that scored 4 runs in the first two games and was facing one of the tougher pitchers going right now didn’t need to weaken its lineup to that extent today. Now sure, when your team gives up 9 runs, it’s hard to believe that sitting two hitters makes much of a difference. And I get that resting players is important, especially with Monday being an off day. But still, I have never understood reducing the strength of the order to that extent. Rest guys, yes, but stagger it.

This is something Francona did with some frequency, and often on Sundays. Yes, Tito has enjoyed a lot of success. But that doesn’t make this a good practice, and it’s something Cora is borrowing from Terry or doing on his own that I think is unnecessary.

I also wonder if it sends any kind of subtle message. I know these guys are professionals and believe in themselves, but maybe on some level it says something about the urgency to win when you sit two of your best at once. Maybe not, and this is hardly my main point. Just something I was wondering about and don’t know...and obviously can’t measure.
 

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I never said it did. I actually favor a green light for most players. My first post explained that pitchers were throwing 95% fastballs, and 79% strikes. MLB hitters should be able to pick a ball to hit when they know a fastball is coming. But some (weaker) hitters should probably be taking. Not exactly groundbreaking.
What I'm saying is, disirregardless of the signal or lack of signal or nonexistence of one, statistically speaking, they're all still taking, basically.

I'm learning to like Cora more and more.
 

The Needler

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What I'm saying is, disirregardless of the signal or lack of signal or nonexistence of one, statistically speaking, they're all still taking, basically.

I'm learning to like Cora more and more.
Cora/Red Sox don't seem to be doing things much differently or better than the rest of the league. If anything, they may have taken slightly more often. Average 3-0 AB (balls in play) is 8.5; Sox have 7. Average number of walks is 82.7; Sox have 109.

League averages on 3-0 are .367/.939/.867
Sox are .286/.957/.714
 

SirPsychoSquints

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Cora/Red Sox don't seem to be doing things much differently or better than the rest of the league. If anything, they may have taken slightly more often. Average 3-0 AB (balls in play) is 8.5; Sox have 7. Average number of walks is 82.7; Sox have 109.

League averages on 3-0 are .367/.939/.867
Sox are .286/.957/.714
But in counts that reach 3-0, they have the same obp and 100+ points worse SLG than the AL, when they’re obviously better hitters overall.