The Altogether Appropriate NFL Draft Thread

[Shelterdog]

A friend of mine did a mock draft at his blog: http://zonereads.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/quick-mock-draft-113/
 
He has the Pats taking Austin Sefarian-Jenkins in the first and Michael Sam in the second.

 
There's certainly some logic to that.  Sam is a little small at 6-2ish but a third DE/eventual Ninkovich replacement is a need.  (Trent Murphy is my player of choice).
 
I had been a proponent of interior OL/DT with the first two picks but assuming Wilfork and one of Connolly/Wendell are back I think we're ok.  Funny what a couple of 200 yard rushing performances and a good month from Siliga have done.

 

[Saints Rest]

 
There's certainly some logic to that.  Sam is a little small at 6-2ish but a third DE/eventual Ninkovich replacement is a need.  (Trent Murphy is my player of choice).
 
I had been a proponent of interior OL/DT with the first two picks but assuming Wilfork and one of Connolly/Wendell are back I think we're ok.  Funny what a couple of 200 yard rushing performances and a good month from Siliga have done.

 
 

Cross-posting from the Gronk thread:
 
 
Right now there are a ton of DL guys projected on the 2014 roster. They've got veterans Wilfork, Kelly, and Sopoaga, youngsters Siliga, Chris Jones, and Vellano, Pork Chop Grissom and Armond Armstead, who spent the year on IR/NFI, and Forston on the practice squad. We don't know how healthy Wilfork or Kelly will be at the beginning of the season, Sopoaga figures to be a likely cut, and some of the young guys are no doubt fungible, but I'm not sure they need to add here. I think either they use a high pick on a potential star (a penetrator or long-term Wilfork replacement) or leave the position alone; using a fourth rounder on a depth guy seems pointless.
 
TE is a different situation. Hoomanawanui and Mulligan are JAGs and not even under contract next year, D.J. Williams is likely another JAG, and they can use a complementary Hernandez-type even if Gronk is 100% healthy next year.
 
OL is a question mark. Can Cannon take over at RG? How much do they like Kline? I also think it's fascinating that while Kline has been active over Barker, they've been willing to sneak Kline through waivers twice but have kept Barker on the active roster all season. Is Zusevics (IR) an option? What about one of the practice squad guys (Devey, Cave, Mattes)? And the big question mark is how much they like Wendell and whether they're able to re-sign him at a reasonable price.

I think both Hooman and Mulligan may have increased the likelihood that they are back next season.  

 

[Super Nomario]

I think both Hooman and Mulligan may have increased the likelihood that they are back next season.  

I think one or both is back, too, but I think you still need some one who can catch passes.  Hoomanawanui and Mulligan are both good blockers who know the offense and are totally one-dimensional.

 

[mascho]

If anyone feels like getting their scout on, two opportunities today.
 
East-West Shrine Game.  4 pm on NFLN.  Rosters here.  East and West
 
NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.  6 pm on ESPN2.  Rosters here:  http://collegiate.nflpa.com/2014rosters/

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

If Blount walks would anyone w surprised if they draft a RB? I doubt both Ridley and veren get 2nd contracts.

 

[mascho]

So if we were going to have threads dedicated to scouting positions of need to address in the draft, what are people thinking? TE? OL? DL?

 

[koufax32]

So if we were going to have threads dedicated to scouting positions of need to address in the draft, what are people thinking? TE? OL? DL?

Agreed. The only addition would be CB since it's BB we're talking about.

 

[RedOctober3829]

So if we were going to have threads dedicated to scouting positions of need to address in the draft, what are people thinking? TE? OL? DL?

TE for sure.  I'd say have specific threads for OL, DL, and then general offense and defense threads.
 
Then, of course there's the Rutgers thread....

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Wonder if it makes sense to break DL into interior/edge, as it's two different types of players you'd target (acknowledging that individual players will go between them situationally, too)

 

[Phragle]

http://drafttv.com/content/2014/01/19/2014-senior-bowl-weigh-in-results/

 

[Phragle]

https://twitter.com/ShanePHallam/status/425700033669771264/photo/1

 

[ivanvamp]

I may have mentioned this at some point within the past month, but the job the Patriots have done in the draft has been nothing short of remarkable.  I studied the 2000-2012 drafts, and here are some of the highlights:
 
* The Patriots had the 3rd worst average draft pick in the entire draft (counting all draft picks, the Patriots average draft pick was at #134.11).  This factors in not only the starting draft slot but also any picks added by trade.  But we know that the Patriots have the best record in the NFL by a wide margin over that span of time, and have gone the deepest in the playoffs more than any other franchise, so it's safe to point out that their average starting draft slot in the first round is the lowest of any team in the NFL.  So while that points to incredible sustained success, it really hurts come draft time.
 
* The Patriots, from 2000-2012, had the 2nd most picks of any team in the league, at 117 (Tennessee was first with 121).  So effectively the Patriots have taken that poor starting position and used them to get more picks, on the whole. 
 
* The Patriots' draft picks from 2000-2012 had, through 2012, played a total of 449 seasons in the league, 9th most in the NFL.
 
* The Patriots' draft picks over that time accumulated 44 pro-bowl seasons, by far the most in the NFL.  And if you exclude Tom Brady's 8 pro bowls (through 2012), it would still give them 36, six more than the 2nd best team.  
 
* And finally, using profootball-reference's "AV" metric, the Patriots' draft picks, over that time span, have the 2nd highest total AV in the NFL.
 
So what NE has done is taken the worst starting position in the league over that period of time, routinely picking at the end of the first round, and have turned it into a machine that has turned out what is, on the whole, the greatest amount of excellence from those draft picks.  And the results have obviously shown in the sustained excellence of the franchise.
 
They're not just producing Brady and a bunch of average joes that Belichick has molded into a successful team.  They've drafted tons of great talent and/or good talent that they've molded into great players.
 
Anyone that criticizes BB's drafting ability (which anyone can do based on pointing out specific selections) just doesn't understand how really good he is at this.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

I may have mentioned this at some point within the past month, but the job the Patriots have done in the draft has been nothing short of remarkable.  I studied the 2000-2012 drafts, and here are some of the highlights:
 
* The Patriots had the 3rd worst average draft pick in the entire draft (counting all draft picks, the Patriots average draft pick was at #134.11).  This factors in not only the starting draft slot but also any picks added by trade.  But we know that the Patriots have the best record in the NFL by a wide margin over that span of time, and have gone the deepest in the playoffs more than any other franchise, so it's safe to point out that their average starting draft slot in the first round is the lowest of any team in the NFL.  So while that points to incredible sustained success, it really hurts come draft time.
 
* The Patriots, from 2000-2012, had the 2nd most picks of any team in the league, at 117 (Tennessee was first with 121).  So effectively the Patriots have taken that poor starting position and used them to get more picks, on the whole. 
 
* The Patriots' draft picks from 2000-2012 had, through 2012, played a total of 449 seasons in the league, 9th most in the NFL.
 
* The Patriots' draft picks over that time accumulated 44 pro-bowl seasons, by far the most in the NFL.  And if you exclude Tom Brady's 8 pro bowls (through 2012), it would still give them 36, six more than the 2nd best team.  
 
* And finally, using profootball-reference's "AV" metric, the Patriots' draft picks, over that time span, have the 2nd highest total AV in the NFL.
 
So what NE has done is taken the worst starting position in the league over that period of time, routinely picking at the end of the first round, and have turned it into a machine that has turned out what is, on the whole, the greatest amount of excellence from those draft picks.  And the results have obviously shown in the sustained excellence of the franchise.
 
They're not just producing Brady and a bunch of average joes that Belichick has molded into a successful team.  They've drafted tons of great talent and/or good talent that they've molded into great players.
 
Anyone that criticizes BB's drafting ability (which anyone can do based on pointing out specific selections) just doesn't understand how really good he is at this.

 
But but but Ras-I Dowling!!! Howl! Howl! Bitch! Bitch! Bitch!
 
Seriously though thank you for posting this info.  It helps to create a baseline to measure draft success against.  I think most of the people here get it (most).  The draft is hard, everyone will have more misses then hits.  But even within that framework the Pats have more success then the rest of the league.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Anyone that criticizes BB's drafting ability (which anyone can do based on pointing out specific selections) just doesn't understand how really good he is at this.

 
Super post ivanvamp, for putting some numbers behind the never-ending debate. I think the success rate on UDFAs must also rank fairly high for BB.

 

[Phragle]

‏Dane Brugler@dpbrugler
40m
FWIW, one NFL personnel guy told me this week that this is the "worst group of Senior Bowl prospects in 20 years" #NFLDraft
 
Dane Brugler ‏@dpbrugler
38m
I can't date back 20 yrs, but last yr had 3 Senior Bowlers in the top-5 overall. This year probably won't have 3 in the 1st round #NFLDraft
 
Dane Brugler ‏@dpbrugler21m
Last yr SR Bowlers Eric Fisher, Lane Johnson, Ziggy Ansah went top-5 overall. This yr? Zack Martin. Maybe Carr, Hageman, Donald go 1st rnd?
 
Dane Brugler ‏@dpbrugler5m
I asked 5 NFL personnel guys who will be the top #SeniorBowl prospect drafted. Results: Zack Martin (3 votes), Carr (1), Donald (1)

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

If everybody hates Hageman and they want to let him drop to the end of the 1st then that's fine with me.

 

[mascho]

Senior Bowl today. 4 Eastern on NFLN. Get your scout on.

 

[SMU_Sox]

IMHO you learn more from the practices than the game itself but it should be a good watch. I have my eyes on the DLine and olines.

 

[mascho]

Your Senior Bowl Week award winners.
 
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/01/aaron_donald_earns_senior_bowl.html
 
A binkie or two in the mix.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Can I just say that I love this part of the process. The whole evaluation, mocks, finding needs, identifying fits, scouting, researching. This is the best.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Your Senior Bowl Week award winners.
 
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/01/aaron_donald_earns_senior_bowl.html
 
A binkie or two in the mix.

 
In the article: Most Outstanding Receiver: C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa
 
It is odd that he wasn't used in the passing game at all, but winning the practice award as an outstanding receiver just adds to his binkiness. 

 

[mascho]

If you are on Twitter: #PostSRBowlMock. Matt Waldman, Eric Galko (@OptimumScouting) and Sigmund Bloom are about to kick off a live mock draft.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

If you are on Twitter: #PostSRBowlMock. Matt Waldman, Eric Galko (@OptimumScouting) and Sigmund Bloom are about to kick off a live mock draft.

 
1. Clowney
2. Robinson
3. Manziel
4. Watkins
5. Bridgewater
 
Hmmnn...

 

[mascho]

In #PostSRBowlMock Ebron just came off the board at 15 to the Steelers.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

A Clemson feed on my Twitter is reporting that Tahj Boyd is unlikely to be invited to the combine. I find that curious, may mean he's dropping or that senior bowl evaluation combined with pro day gives them what they need.

Regardless, I believe he's dropping. But also this. He's damn close to Geno Smith level talent, and look at the difference a year makes.

 

[Super Nomario]

A Clemson feed on my Twitter is reporting that Tahj Boyd is unlikely to be invited to the combine. I find that curious, may mean he's dropping or that senior bowl evaluation combined with pro day gives them what they need.

Regardless, I believe he's dropping. But also this. He's damn close to Geno Smith level talent, and look at the difference a year makes.

http://www.nflcombine.net/faq/how-are-players-selected-for-the-nfl-combine
 
"While it is not a perfect science, the goal of the committee is to invite every player that will be drafted in the ensuing NFL Draft."
 
So it sounds like they don't expect him to be drafted? By all accounts he had a wretched Senior Bowl week.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

Yea. We'll see. Can't imagine he doesn't get drafted. I don't expect it to be high though.

 

[Super Nomario]

If you are on Twitter: #PostSRBowlMock. Matt Waldman, Eric Galko (@OptimumScouting) and Sigmund Bloom are about to kick off a live mock draft.

Louis Nix to the Pats. Tough to argue with that.
 
I think they're a little high on some of the Senior Bowl guys - Aaron Donald went 14, Zach Martin 16, Dee Ford went 17, Kyle Van Noy 24 - those are higher than I've been seeing them. I think there's some recency bias there.

 

[Super Nomario]

Draft time-waster: http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/

 

[Phragle]

Louis Nix to the Pats. Tough to argue with that.

(grabs tissue box)
 

I think they're a little high on some of the Senior Bowl guys - Aaron Donald went 14, Zach Martin 16, Dee Ford went 17, Kyle Van Noy 24 - those are higher than I've been seeing them. I think there's some recency bias there.

 
There is. It happens every year. It's nothing to be concerned about.

 

[SpacemanzGerbil]

Draft time-waster: http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock/draft.php

That thing is awesome, though you have to enter http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock as the url, otherwise it takes you into an autodraft without your participation.
 
You get a great deal of variety in who is available for your picks, though I did get Hageman available twice in a row.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

that link is fun.  I also pretty consistently get Louis Nix at the 29th pick, which I think would be pretty awesome.
 
I'm looking for a table that shows number of picks by round by team.  Does anyone know where to find one?  I believe I read that SF and Minn both had 5 picks within the top 100 or so picks.  I wanted to start to get a sense for which teams might have draft currency to move around the board.

 

[mascho]

Wiki might not have exactly what you are looking for, but they have the complete table of selections.  
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_NFL_Draft

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

nm

 

[Super Nomario]

That thing is awesome, though you have to enter http://fanspeak.com/ontheclock as the url, otherwise it takes you into an autodraft without your participation.
 
You get a great deal of variety in who is available for your picks, though I did get Hageman available twice in a row.

Thanks, fixed it the link above.
 
The last time I ran it Johnny Manziel fell to me at 29. I had to do it.

 

[SpacemanzGerbil]

The last few times I've gone through it, I wind up with Hageman, Weston Richburg and Jimmy Ward with my first three picks. 
 
Sploosh.

 

[bakahump]

Proceed for the tissues.
 
 

29

DT RA’SHEDE HAGEMAN
MINNESOTA



62

TE AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS
WASHINGTON



93

DT KELCY QUARLES
SOUTH CAROLINA



126

C BRYAN STORK
FLORIDA STATE

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

29
DT LOUIS NIX III
NOTRE DAME
62
OT CAMERON FLEMING
STANFORD
93
TE TROY NIKLAS
NOTRE DAME

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

 

29
 

DT AARON DONALD
PITTSBURGH



62
 

TE AUSTIN SEFERIAN-JENKINS
WASHINGTON



93
 

DE MARCUS SMITH
LOUISVILLE



126
 

C BRYAN STORK
FLORIDA STATE



182
 

S VINNIE SUNSERI
ALABAMA


 

 190
 

WR JEFF JANIS
SAGINAW VALLEY STATE



221
 

CB RICARDO ALLEN
PURDUE  


  
 
Would have been helpful to have height and weight once you clicked the player.  I pretty much went with best available while trying not to double up the same position.

 

[mascho]

29.  Ra'Shede Hageman DT Minnesota
 
62.  Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
 
93.  C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
 
126. Bryan Stork C FSU
 
182. Walt Atkins CB Liberty
 
190. Lavelle Westbrooks CB Georgia Southern
 
221.  Connor Shaw QB South Carolina
 
Yeah, I'd be cool with this.

 

[ElcaballitoMVP]

29. David Yankey G/T Stanford
 
62. Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
 
93. Daquan Jones DT Penn State
 
126. Keith McGill CB (6'3) Utah
 
182. Aaron Lynch DE S. Florida
 
190. Vinnie Sunseri S Bama
 
221. Trey Millard FB/H-back type Oklahoma 
 
Yankey solidifies the OL, while Jones/Lynch do the same on the Dline. ASJ gives the offense a 2nd receiving option from the TE position. McGill adds size to the CB unit and can hopefully learn the ropes from Talib for a few years. Sunseri can at least help on special teams and Millard gives the offense another fullback to take to camp and is another guy who has special teams experience. 

 

[Dogman]

29
 

DT AARON DONALD
PITTSBURGH



62
 

DT RA’SHEDE HAGEMAN
MINNESOTA



93
 

TE TROY NIKLAS
NOTRE DAME



126
 

CB BASHAUD BREELAND
CLEMSON



182
 

TE JAKE MURPHY
UTAH



190
 

OT JUSTIN BRITT
MISSOURI



221
 

QB CONNOR SHAW
SOUTH CAROLINA

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

Can we move the draft results thing to another thread or just stop posting them all together. It's a fun tool but it's not really adding anything to the discussion.

 

[Phragle]

221.  Connor Shaw QB South Carolina

QB CONNOR SHAW
SOUTH CAROLINA

 
 You guys should just go.

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

I was assuming they were drafting Shaw as a safety or special teams gunner. Kid is tough, just not a pro QB

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

If we get Hageman and ASJ, that would be ridiculous. I just don't see that happening though.

 

[Dogman]

 
 You guys should just go.

 
There wasn't a Rutgers player on the board.

 

[RedOctober3829]

NFL has released the draft order.
 
1. Houston Texans (2-14) 2. St. Louis Rams (7-9) (from Washington Redskins) 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) 4. Cleveland Browns (4-12) 5. Oakland Raiders (4-12) 6. Atlanta Falcons (4-12) 7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12) 8. Minnesota Vikings (5-10-1) 9. Buffalo Bills (6-10) 10. Detroit Lions (7-9) 11. Tennessee Titans (7-9) 12. New York Giants (7-9) 13. St. Louis Rams (7-9) 14. Chicago Bears (8-8) 15. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) 16. Dallas Cowboys (8-8) 17. Baltimore Ravens (8-8) 18. New York Jets (8-8) 19. Miami Dolphins (8-8) 20. Arizona Cardinals (10-6) 21. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) 22. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) 23. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) 24. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) 25. San Diego Chargers (9-7) 26. Cleveland Browns (4-12) (from Indianapolis Colts) 27. New Orleans Saints (11-5) 28. Carolina Panthers (12-4) 29. New England Patriots (12-4) 30. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) 31. Denver Broncos (13-3) 32. Seattle Seahawks (13-3)

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/02/nfl-releases-2014-draft-order-patriots-picking-no-29/

 

[mascho]

Combine Invites:
 
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000323950/article/draft-prospects-invited-to-2014-nfl-scouting-combine
 
Notable binkies include:
 
Lorenzo Taliaferro, Coastal Carolina 
Jared Abbrederis, Wisconsin 
C.J. Fiedorowicz, Iowa
Joel Bitonio (OT), Nevada
Stanley Jean-Baptiste (CB), Nebraska
Lavelle Westbrooks (CB), Georgia Southern

 

[RedOctober3829]

I've seen Taliaferro up close.  He's a really good player.