The Chiefs just hired Brock Olivo from Coastal Carolina where he coached RB's and special teams, so they have good info and knowledge on Taliafero. I think Olivo is set to coach the Chiefs ST's.RedOctober3829 said:
The Altogether Appropriate NFL Draft Thread
- Thread starter Morgan's Magic Snowplow
- Start date
I'm playing around with a few models to predict draft performance now (in hopes of adding combine data soon), and I found I was able to significantly improve (by about 20%) the accuracy of the predictions by adding a dummy variable for whether a prospect came from a BCS Conference school.
This is somewhat surprising to me, in that I'd have expected small school vs. big school stuff would be pretty accounted for by scouts. I'm going add in some strength of schedule indicators to get some more granularity to this to see if there's something else going on here as well, or if its just schedule stuff.
EDIT- It's the BCS Conference school prospects that outperform by the way.
This is somewhat surprising to me, in that I'd have expected small school vs. big school stuff would be pretty accounted for by scouts. I'm going add in some strength of schedule indicators to get some more granularity to this to see if there's something else going on here as well, or if its just schedule stuff.
EDIT- It's the BCS Conference school prospects that outperform by the way.
Now that the combine is overhalf way done, is it really still "Reall Too Early" to have this thread?
:blink:
:blink:
“@mikefreemanNFL: It's lying season in the NFL but I'm told Texans closing in on Clowney as top pick in draft: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1973036-ten-point-stance-mike-freemans-nfl-notebook-after-the-scouting-combine"
Would have thought they would go after a QB
Would have thought they would go after a QB
soxhop411 said:
They could still end up with a decent QB in the second round. Watt and Clowney on the same d-line is the stuff of nightmares.
Closing in on him as the top pick? Jesus, the draft isn't until May. This will change 10000 times before then.soxhop411 said:
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
No need to run a smoke screen with those guys.
The thing I'm wondering is if RAC tries to run his big 2-gap 3-4? Clowney and Watt are much better as 1-gap DEs.
Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
Pat Chung.
I would bet lots of money that a QB is selected #1 overall.
History shows that if there is a QB that is widely seen as a legitimate #1 overall pick, that guy (or another QB in the same class) gets taken #1 overall even in the presence of amazing prospects at other positions . And while Clowney is a freak prospect the concerns about his work ethic and penchant for taking plays off are not negligible.
History shows that if there is a QB that is widely seen as a legitimate #1 overall pick, that guy (or another QB in the same class) gets taken #1 overall even in the presence of amazing prospects at other positions . And while Clowney is a freak prospect the concerns about his work ethic and penchant for taking plays off are not negligible.
Clowney is probably athletic enough to play a rush OLB role, but I think you're right the 2-gap 3-4 makes no sense with their personnel.phragle said:
Wait, is there a QB that is widely seen as a legitimate #1 overall pick?Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I'd see this argument if Winston was in the draft, but are Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel really "sure thing" types?
bowiac said:
I guess it depends what you mean by that. Bridgewater is not a "sure thing" nor is he a prospect on the level of Andrew Luck but those aren't the standards I'm talking about. As a prospect I think he's at least on the level of guys like Newton, Bradford, Stafford, Carr, Smith, Couch, etc that have been taken #1 overall in the past. Bortles and Manziel are in that conversation as well.
I'm not making an argument about who should be taken overall, just about what NFL teams tend to do. David Carr was taken over Julius Peppers, JaMarcus Russell over Calvin Johnson - there is plenty of history in which absolute freak prospects at non-QB positions don't get taken #1 overall.
I do tend to think you're right and a QB goes #1 ultimately. The exceptions in recent history would be 2006 (Mario Williams went ahead of Vince Young, Matt Leinart) and 2008 (Jake Long went ahead of Matt Ryan). In 2000 and 2013, no QBs were taken high.Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Super Nomario said:
Yup, and I think those are actually cases in which the QBs were never broadly viewed as true contenders for the #1 pick. There were huge questions about Vince Young's throwing motion and his ability as a pocket passer and a lot of teams were low on Leinart - IIRC, the pre-draft conversation about first overall was dominated by a Bush versus Williams debate. In 2008, most mock drafts didn't have Ryan in the Top 5 and he was seen as a little bit of a reach by some analysts.
Ron Jaworski, who's actually one of the ESPN types who bothers to break down film before commenting, said after watching five games (thus far), he wouldn't draft Manziel until the THIRD round, if then.
He went on to say that he reserves the right to change his mind after reviewing more tape and seeing his pro day.
He went on to say that he reserves the right to change his mind after reviewing more tape and seeing his pro day.
So Phil Simms said this on XM today
Alex Dunlap @AlexDunlapNFL 11m
Phil Simms said on Sirius XM that Geno Smith would be the best QB in the 2014 class and I almost wrecked my car. Love Geno but it's Teddy.
https://twitter.com/AlexDunlapNFL/status/438793325919752192
Alex Dunlap @AlexDunlapNFL 11m
Phil Simms said on Sirius XM that Geno Smith would be the best QB in the 2014 class and I almost wrecked my car. Love Geno but it's Teddy.
https://twitter.com/AlexDunlapNFL/status/438793325919752192
I don't really feel great about any of these QBs. I think they are all solidly better than last years, and there are a good half dozen or so who are interesting, but none I would take in the top 3, Bridgewater included. The class is just too good to miss out on a guy like Barr or Clowney or Mack.
I think there is a chance a few of them are good quarterbacks, but I don't think any of these are can't miss guys.
I think there is a chance a few of them are good quarterbacks, but I don't think any of these are can't miss guys.
He may not be Andrew Luck and he might not be a big read-option guy but I don't see what's not to like about Bridgewater. By pretty much all accounts he's accurate and has good throwing mechanics, he has good enough arm strength, he has great pocket presence, he played in a pro-style offense, and he has no personal red flags and has apparently interviewed well. People were worried about his size but 6'2 and 215 seems plenty big. People knock him for playing a weak schedule, but he killed teams like Florida and its not like Bortles played a better schedule.
Double tissue time, especially if you swap out ASF with an OL.mascho said:
I think ASF and CJF are too much of the same thing, and between the two you know who I prefer.
Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
He was listed at 205 and some people say he played at 195 so whether he's going to be at 215ish going forward is a bit of an open question.
I'm starting to cotton to the idea of passing on the top 4 TE's (Ebron/Amaro/ASJ/Niklas) to concentrate on DL/OL in the first two rounds... maybe a great DB if one drops.SeoulSoxFan said:
My sense is that Fiedorowicz in the 3rd along with Gilmore in the 5th or Duncan in the 6th or Jensen/Lyerla in the 7th would be some pretty good work at the position. Gronkowski IS coming back, after all...
Boy, way too long until Draft Day. I gotta get a life.
Is that really a problem though? For example, that sentence also describes Aaron Rodgers at Cal. I think any team with a decent nutrition/lifting program can probably keep Bridgewater in the 215-225 range.Shelterdog said:
From a durability perspective I'd rather have a 220ish guy who has great pocket presence that allows him to avoid a lot of big hits than a Roethlisberger sized guy who gets whaled on because he can't sense the rush.
Mugsys Jock said:
I don't think there's any way the Pats touch Lyerla. Combine the drug problems with his Sandy Hook conspiracy bullshit and I don't think they go anywhere near him. I could definitely be wrong, but that guy has all sorts of red flags and I'm not sure the team wants to go that route so soon after the Weedz situation.
Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 10m
Hmmmm: Houston Texans HC Bill O'Brien at Northwestern for Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo's Pro Day.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/440919462548488192
smokescreen?
Hmmmm: Houston Texans HC Bill O'Brien at Northwestern for Eastern Illinois QB Jimmy Garoppolo's Pro Day.
https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/440919462548488192
smokescreen?
soxhop411 said:
Or due diligence. If the Texans don't draft Garoppolo, someone else will. Now they have seen him up close, see what throws he can make, what throws he struggles with, how he does on the run, etc.
mascho said:
The Texans are playing things perfectly, in my opinion. They are very publicly exploring all options - a QB, Clowney, listening on trade offers. This should push the trade value of the #1 pick if they choose to deal it since none of the teams below them have a good read on what the Texans really want to do. And the Rams sitting at #2 even helps the Texans since interested teams have to think that if they don't jump to #1, they have no idea who might step into #2. This might all be moot with O'Brien taking Teddy Bridgewater #1, but he has played things very well so far.
Long writeup based on a Kiper con-call.
Interesting tidbits:
Interesting tidbits:
- Kiper has Tre Mason going in the 3rd or 4th. I wouldn't mind seeing the Pats grab him there.
- He mentions RO's binky Taliaferro as a day 3 sleeper.
- He has Nix as an early-mid 2nd, not a first.
- He has Kony Ealy as a borderline first, which means he could be around for the Pats at 29. It'd be tough to pass on him there, I think.
- He has Amaro as a 2nd-3rd-rounder now. I'm not a fan at 29, but at 62 he'd be great.
Will be interesting to see whether the top of this draft gets scrambled again because of second thoughts about QBs.67YAZ said:
As noted in QB thread, Bridgewater's pro day was not particularly good. Apart from the performance criticisms noted there, his weight reportedly has fallen from 214 at the Combine to 208 yesterday, which potentially raises another set of concerns.
Manziel and Bortles will have their pro days in the next couple of weeks. You don't want to make too much of one day, but it is entirely possible that upon a reexamination, a consensus may emerge that none of these QBs are worth taking at the very top of this draft, and certainly none are worth trading up to the top for.
Daniel JeremiahVerified account@MoveTheSticks
Scouts always ask prospects for a list of teams they've had private workouts with...I quickly learned "I can't say this team" = Patriots.
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/446163174807461888
Scouts always ask prospects for a list of teams they've had private workouts with...I quickly learned "I can't say this team" = Patriots.
https://twitter.com/MoveTheSticks/status/446163174807461888
bakahump said:
You have 3-5 QB's who may get picked in the 1st round. 3 for sure: Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, and Johnny Football. None of these guys should be left after pick 20.
You have another guy who could be around for someone to trade up for by the time the Pats pick: Derek Carr.
Then you have some other guys who will be available at 29 like: AJ McCarron, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc. None of these guys should merit a first round grade. But how many times have NFL teams drafted a 3rd or 4th round QB (talent-wise) in the first round? And then you have to get into scenarios of when people are going to trade up. If HOU doesn't draft a QB #1 overall why would they trade up to 29? I mean you'd have to have another QB hungry team also not draft a QB and then you might get a bidding war. But you need 2 QB hungry teams to not draft a QB. Who are those teams?
Teams we know that have QB issues: Texans, Jags, Browns, and Raiders
Teams that might draft a QB in the first round: Bucs?? (I'd say no even though I think Glennon sucks), Titans? (Locker still has one last chance, right?), Jets? (I'm leaning towards no here but just putting it out there), Zona (They need a long term replacement for Palmer).
Now let's look at viability of a trade:
The Texans will either pick a QB first or have the 1st pick of the 2nd round to do it. Unless there is a bidding war to trade up the Texans are in prime position to pick any QB left right away in the 2nd round. They have no incentive to start a bidding war as they are in position to capitalize.
Browns: They have 2 picks 4 and 26. I can't see them not drafting a QB with one of them.
Jags: I assume QB. But I could see them taking Clowney if he falls to them. Really though - if the Texans draft a QB they are in the same spot the Texans would be in the 2nd round if they don't go QB (first QB needy team to pick). Again, unless both the Texans and Jags pass we have no incentive to a bidding war.
Raiders: I think it is all but assured they draft a QB. Now if the Texans, Browns, and Jags draft the big 3 then the Raiders could skip QB and be the first QB needy team to pick in the 2nd round.
The rest: While I think the other teams I mentioned could draft a QB I do not think it is likely they will do so until the 3rd or 4th round. I can't see any of those teams trading the Pats for their 1st. I definitely could be wrong but I suspect not.
Agreed that the Patriots MAY not make a trade....and we all know there is no rule that it needs to be the Pats who trade. Any team could.
But...like free agency all you need is one "desperate" team.
One Scenerio...
Texans Pick Clowney.
Browns and Jags Pick a QB.
Raiders pick a really fast receiver....
You yourself mention the dearth of teams who need a QB....so if they get through those first few picks.....they could fall a long way.
Pick 29 rolls around.
Raiders know that the Texans are lurking. Thus they want to jump in front of the Texans. The offer their pick in the 2nd and a 4th to the Pats. Pats go to the Texans and say "we have this offer. If you give us your 2nd and 4th you can have the 29".
Why would the Texans do that? 2 reasons. 1. The Pats could make the trade and the Raiders get a player the Texans want or 2. The Pats might turn down the offer make their own pick and the Texans are afraid that the 9ers, Broncos or Seahawks wont turn down the same offer.
Also....i am not yet convinced that all 3 of Bridge, Manzy and Bortles are going to go in the top 20. I think its likely at least 1 slips. Finally teams may prefer Garoppolo to Carr....or Mccaron to Garopolo. If you want to ensure you get the guy you want a 4th (or whatever you have to package with the 2nd) seems like a small price to pay.
I agree.....no body is going to be getting a 2015 #1 for the 29 (for instance).
The point I was trying to make is that any uncertainty to the value of one of the QBs being a top 5 pick is a good thing if a team (the Pats) are looking to trade back. Just a little uncertainty could have huge ripples.
But...like free agency all you need is one "desperate" team.
One Scenerio...
Texans Pick Clowney.
Browns and Jags Pick a QB.
Raiders pick a really fast receiver....
You yourself mention the dearth of teams who need a QB....so if they get through those first few picks.....they could fall a long way.
Pick 29 rolls around.
Raiders know that the Texans are lurking. Thus they want to jump in front of the Texans. The offer their pick in the 2nd and a 4th to the Pats. Pats go to the Texans and say "we have this offer. If you give us your 2nd and 4th you can have the 29".
Why would the Texans do that? 2 reasons. 1. The Pats could make the trade and the Raiders get a player the Texans want or 2. The Pats might turn down the offer make their own pick and the Texans are afraid that the 9ers, Broncos or Seahawks wont turn down the same offer.
Also....i am not yet convinced that all 3 of Bridge, Manzy and Bortles are going to go in the top 20. I think its likely at least 1 slips. Finally teams may prefer Garoppolo to Carr....or Mccaron to Garopolo. If you want to ensure you get the guy you want a 4th (or whatever you have to package with the 2nd) seems like a small price to pay.
I agree.....no body is going to be getting a 2015 #1 for the 29 (for instance).
The point I was trying to make is that any uncertainty to the value of one of the QBs being a top 5 pick is a good thing if a team (the Pats) are looking to trade back. Just a little uncertainty could have huge ripples.
Your post is from a while ago, but I've been mulling it over and wondering what might cause this. I have a hypothesis that makes sense: the small-school guys aren't overrated by consensus, but there's more variability, and in an exercise where you're getting drafted by one team, rather than by consensus, the non-BCS guys end up getting overdrafted.bowiac said:
I don't know if I'm explaining this well, so imagine two linebackers who both grade out as roughly the 75th-best prospect in the league. One went to Alabama, so the tape can be taken on face value, there are no questions about quality of competition, etc. One went to Dixie State, so there are more questions / variability. Five teams rank them as follows:
Arny Alabama - 65 (i.e., the 65th-best prospect in the draft) - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85
David Dixie - 45 - 60 - 75 - 90 - 105
On consensus, they rank exactly the same, but Dixie is going to get drafted about 20 slots higher, because one of the teams that grades him out as the 45th is going to grab him roughly in that range, while no one's going to grab Arny Alabama any earlier than about 65. That several teams rank Dixie much worse is irrelevant to where they are drafted; a player's draft position is determined by the teams that like him the best.
If my hypothesis is correct, we'd expect to see: 1) more variability in how the small school guys show up on various "boards" (Mayock, Kiper, etc.), and 2) the small school guys generally getting drafted earlier than the consensus of where they show up on these boards.
I think a variable for the BCS conference players is that they are a known commodity. Where someone from a tiny conference might get overlooked entirely. In that case, it only takes one team to find him, like him, draft him. But there are surely players that fit the category of only being on a few teams radar and completely escaping the radar of the McShay's and Kiper's of the world.
I know I've heard Mel say during the draft that he didn't have this player on his board, and there are countless players that they don't even have highlights for when their name gets called. I'm too busy to dig, but I be one of the small school variables is who is invited to the combine and who isn't and how much exposure the small school players get.
I know I've heard Mel say during the draft that he didn't have this player on his board, and there are countless players that they don't even have highlights for when their name gets called. I'm too busy to dig, but I be one of the small school variables is who is invited to the combine and who isn't and how much exposure the small school players get.
Umm, guys..... Al Davis died in 2011.
If Oakland makes any move it will be Reggie McKinzie trading down out of 5 when Clowney / Robinson / Bortles are gone.
If Oakland makes any move it will be Reggie McKinzie trading down out of 5 when Clowney / Robinson / Bortles are gone.
We got an extra fourth???
That's hilariously awesome. Also proves nobody understands the formula.
https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/448218524478341120
That's hilariously awesome. Also proves nobody understands the formula.
https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/448218524478341120
Thats awesome! I've been playing with the On The Clock tool all day and have been pissed off about not having a 5th round pick.
Comp picks can't be traded right? But this at least opens up other possibilities to moving around the board.
Comp picks can't be traded right? But this at least opens up other possibilities to moving around the board.
Pro days for a QB are so overrated. If you're interested in him, bring him in and work him out yourself. What else can you learn from a guy in shorts that you can't learn on tape? Tape does not lie.DrewDawg said:
I guess I kind of get it. Pro Days are kind of a sham. They are rehearsed workouts, in shorts and Tshirts with WRs that the QB has been fine tunning with for weeks. If you need a Pro Day to make or break your QB draft desicion then you are likely doing something wrong. They have other opportunities to meet him and work him out. They are at a spot in the draft where keeping their intentions as shrouded as possible likely adds to the ability to have flexibility with the pick.