The Athletic: Poll on hypothetical, proposed trade for John Collins

Would you make this trade?

  • Yes, Celtics get Collins

    Votes: 25 29.4%
  • No, the price is too high/would prefer someone else

    Votes: 56 65.9%
  • No, Larry Bird is walking through that door

    Votes: 4 4.7%

  • Total voters
    85

NomarsFool

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Dec 21, 2001
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I dunno. I was looking to expand the deal and came up with this

C's Trade:
Smart
TT
PP
Edwards
2021+2023 first unprotected
2025 1st protected top 25.

Atlanta trades
John Collins
Clint Capela
No, for the simple reason that it makes their roster construction even worse unless we want to see Capela, TT, DT, and RW all on the floor at the same time :)

I like TL, if we are replacing Smart in the above with TL (or TT) that would be more interesting to me.
 

benhogan

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I agree on most, but I think the RFA S&T would be real tough. Even if you dump Kemba it's unlikely to be for $0 in return, and you're looking at a real problem with the hard cap.

Right now the Celtics would project $5M under the hard cap just on salaries. This trade cuts out about $4M. So you're at $9M under the hard cap for 9 players. Let's say you dump Kemba and only take back $10M or so that makes him and Collins on a sub-max deal basically a wash....
Now you have 6 spots to fill with $9M, maybe you turn Thompson into 2 cheaper players. You're still nowhere near the range of a S&T for an RFA.

A S&T for an RFA is hard as is, if you trade for Collins it is essentially impossible. If they trade for Collins, then they're not doing a S&T, which is fine, there are a lot of ways to use the TPE and go over the apron.
Good point. Forgot about the TPE/RFA restrictions there. Thanks
 

PedroKsBambino

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I didn't say it was impossible, I said it was unreasonable. Taking an extreme edge case and arguing that it is the best use of an asset that will be expiring shortly.
As you note it's highly unlikely that there is a player that will be available who meets the criteria. And even then it's a generally terrible idea to pass on a trade that gets you a very good 23 year old AND leaves you the TPE, so that you can in your words:
"use the TPE to acquire someone who is not today as good as Collins, but who you believe in."
You are:
1. Obtaining a player who is admittedly worse than another option
2. Using the TPE to do it, instead of getting a borderline All-Star AND having the TPE to use
3. Doing so because you think that your valuation of the player is significantly different than the player's current team and the rest of the league.

It's an incredibly high risk move, and the upside is arguable. You're putting a lot of eggs in the development basket for no good reason. I mean... Jerami Grant is pretty good... John Collins is considerably better and considerably younger. If we passed on John Collins for the next Jerami Grant it would not be a good thing.
I don't think you are interested in what I posted, and arguing against your straw-man is not very interesting (for example, I did not suggest using the TPE, and I did not argue for obtaining a player who is admittedly worse than another option).

You only make such a move if you believe strongly in your assessment, obviously. Teams have made trades based on having a different assessment of a player than the trading team successfully throughout the history of the league, and I expect the team is looking at that type of player right now. That you often can't figure out someone good enough who the other team sees very differently doesn't mean you do not consider it. It's frankly astonishing to suggest that is some unusual question to be asking.

As an aside, not clear that John Collins is a better player than Jerami Grant (Grant slightly ahead in RPM, well ahead in Raptor, etc.)
 

benhogan

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As an aside, not clear that John Collins is a better player than Jerami Grant (Grant slightly ahead in RPM, well ahead in Raptor, etc.)
my Syracuse bias aside, Grant/Collins are somewhat comparable players. Grant is finally putting up some fat numbers being the #1 option.

Collins is a full 3 years younger, has been more consistent, and is a little more polished.
I'd bet on JC, over the next 4 seasons, out of the two
 
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Cellar-Door

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I don't think you are interested in what I posted, and arguing against your straw-man is not very interesting (for example, I did not suggest using the TPE, and I did not argue for obtaining a player who is admittedly worse than another option).

You only make such a move if you believe strongly in your assessment, obviously. Teams have made trades based on having a different assessment of a player than the trading team successfully throughout the history of the league, and I expect the team is looking at that type of player right now. That you often can't figure out someone good enough who the other team sees very differently doesn't mean you do not consider it. It's frankly astonishing to suggest that is some unusual question to be asking.

As an aside, not clear that John Collins is a better player than Jerami Grant (Grant slightly ahead in RPM, well ahead in Raptor, etc.)
I literally quoted you, how is it a strawman, or you not suggesting using the TPE? Here I'll use the actual quote function:

I think the other way to think about it is that you might be able to use the TPE to acquire someone who is not today as good as Collins, but who you believe in. Imagine Jimmy Butler early in his career. That is I think the most likely way you get someone better in the end than Collins is today---but it is far from a high-probability scenario
 

Cesar Crespo

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No, for the simple reason that it makes their roster construction even worse unless we want to see Capela, TT, DT, and RW all on the floor at the same time :)

I like TL, if we are replacing Smart in the above with TL (or TT) that would be more interesting to me.
Reread the trade. TT would be gone.
 
The Hawks aren't trading Capela. Period. They finally have an interior defender - and one whose existence makes the thought of moving Collins more plausible - and they're not about to lose him and Collins at once. (The need for more defense is why Smart would be welcome in a deal.)

I have to keep reminding myself that "PP" doesn't stand for Paul Pierce, btw.
 

benhogan

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Some of the young players I'd love to acquire that could possibly end up better than John Collins if you squint your eyes really hard. At age 25, most players are what they are, so these are the players you can still dream on.

Malik Monk: Last 12 games: 27.0 mpg, .452/.474/.864, 15.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists. Will always be poor and limited on D due to measurements, gets about as many steals and blocks as Semi. He can score though and just 23 this month.

Lauri Markkanen: Huge size, currently injured. He's a very unique player offensively and would fit in great on that side of the court along the Jays. Flawed defensively and lacks strength. Will struggle to be even average on D.

Lonzo Ball: I'd give him the best chance. The sample size from 3 over the last 2 years is looking more and more like the true Lonzo and he's also made strides at the FT line (though it's all small sample sizes) and getting to the line more. He has good size and is a very well rounded player. Fits a lot of what the C's need. The only thing that stops him from being a perfect fit is if both Jays are on the bench. He can't carry an offense like Collins.

Are there others that are actually available?

Collins is currently way better than the other 3. I'm being very generous with youth. Thing is, Collins is just as young as these 3, so he could continue to improve as well.

I could see the argument that Collins will cost about as much yearly as Ball + Monk or Lauri + Monk. Maybe going 2 instead of 1 would be wise, but I don't see the C's getting a better player at a cheaper cost than Collins assuming the asking cost was just PP, Carsen and 2 or 3 last 1st round picks.
Gary Trent Jr, is a young guy (22), that seems somewhat under the radar, behind Dame/CJ

A big-time recruit that had an off year at Duke, not sure why he lasted until the 2nd round?
22yr old, built like a bull that has been shooting 3s at 43% (7.7 att/gm). 41% for his 3yr career. Thought he did an admirable job guarding Bron in the bubble.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/trentga02.html
 

PedroKsBambino

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I literally quoted you, how is it a strawman, or you not suggesting using the TPE? Here I'll use the actual quote function:
Yes but not the whole $28.5 mil TPE which is what you suggested was the cost of it. The nature of the player is most likely going to be 3-5 mil (as indicated by guys unnamed and their timelines) though I guess you could get higher on a second-contract guy. Anyway, characterizing that I was suggesting this player instead of “a borderline all star and the full TPE” is flatly disingenuous as is suggested no such thing.

As to Collins or Grant I agree one could land either way. I was pushing back on the idea it was beyond question Collins.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Gary Trent Jr, is a young guy (22), that seems somewhat under the radar, behind Dame/CJ

A big-time recruit that had an off year at Duke, not sure why he lasted until the 2nd round?
22yr old, built like a bull that has been shooting 3s at 43% (7.7 att/gm). 41% for his 3yr career. Thought he did an admirable job guarding Bron in the bubble.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/trentga02.html
I'd like him too. Clearly not as good as Collins though and like the other 3, I doubt he ever will be. He never gets to the FT line either and doesn't have the greatest shot selection. He has more upside than Monk on D though. He's also almost a full year younger. All 4 of the players have their ups and downs and I could see preferring any.

I don't know much about Trent's upside though. I haven't watched much of his game but he always struck me as an average athlete who plays below the rim. Maybe that's changed. I think I'd have him behind the 3 I mentioned but he'd still be on the list. If he's more explosive than I remember, that all changes. Ball is the best overall player, Monk would be the cheapest and is the only one of the 4 who can create his own shot and be "the guy" when the Jay's sit. I think he'd be the best offensive player of the bunch but he might be best suited to come off the bench for 25-30 minutes a night and light it up on O. His shot is also suspect as this is the only year he's been above average at 3 but I think we all know his scoring potential. Lauri is a lot like Trent except he's 7 feet tall and his shot hasn't been as good to date but it probably will be.

If it's somehow possible to get 2 of those guys for around the same price as Collins, I'd heavily prefer that. I'm not sure it is though and Collins is clearly better than all 4 right now and probably always.
 

chilidawg

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lovegtm

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If you're getting Collins with the intent of matching any offer (which, as noted above, likely could drive the final contract price down a bit), you aren't going to be able to pay Smart. If Atlanta really does want Smart (there are indications that they are trying to be decent now), I'd be ok with putting him in the deal as a way to hold on to the more cost-controlled PP. If Atlanta doesn't want Smart, you may have to start exploring deals for him anyway after this season.

The two big questions for me with Collins are 1) can he improve defensively in the right situation? and 2) can he credibly play the 4 defensively?

If he can play the 4, that leaves more possibility of mixing him in with whomever is left of Theis/TL/TT lineups long-term, while adding more speed than those 2-big lineups have had.

Outside of JC, Lonzo and Gary Trent are the most interesting "acquire with the intent to pay them" guys. The main risk there is that their value is harder to determine, so you're more likely to be stuck with a meh-value contract if a team throws a big RFA offer at them. Collins is good & young enough that even if you match a max, you probably don't end up underwater where the deal has negative value.
 

benhogan

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Did anyone watch the three games in the last two weeks and think that Collins was a big?
No, he's definitely a 4. He doesn't even look 6'9". He'd fit nicely with Theis or TL.

He's switchable and would be fine guarding 5s for a possession.

Also with his scoring average getting dented this season, it's a coin toss he gets a max offer. The timing on RFA contract offers (2 days wasted) can screw up teams with cap space, especially if the Celtics indicate they will match all offers. I believe Milwaukee is getting scrutinized for approaching Bog early in RFA, so that may also dampen RFA offers next season.
 

pjheff

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No, he's definitely a 4. He doesn't even look 6'9". He'd fit nicely with Theis or TL.
Agreed. His frame looked like a fuller Tatum, not a modern big.

He's switchable and would be fine guarding 5s for a possession.
My question would be how switchable he is down to smaller wings.

Also with his scoring average getting dented this season, it's a coin toss he gets a max offer. The timing on RFA contract offers (2 days wasted) can screw up teams with cap space, especially if the Celtics indicate they will match all offers. I believe Milwaukee is getting scrutinized for approaching Bog early in RFA, so that may also dampen RFA offers next season.
Even if he isn’t maxed, I suspect that it’s going to be close a la Brown. I don’t foresee him signing this summer’s equivalent of the Bradley or Smart second contracts.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Agreed. His frame looked like a fuller Tatum, not a modern big.



My question would be how switchable he is down to smaller wings.
Yeah, that’s definitely one of the major questions with him - see lovegtm’s question #2 above. Unlike Tatum, he’s stiffed-hipped, which hurts his lateral movement, same issue that dinged Obi Toppin in the draft, though I don’t think he’s quite as bad as Toppin. That is something that can be improved, though I don’t think he’ll ever be particularly switchy. But metrics generally have him as better defensively than his rep would have you think. He’s playing most of his minutes with Capela and lengthy wings like Hunter (who’s been awesome this year) and Reddish, so maybe that’s masking some deficiencies. As wary as I typically am of good stats/bad team guys, he did just put up 21/10 on 66 TS%, not too many guys have done that, much less at age 22, and his shooting is not a fluke.