The Ballad of N'Keal

DJnVa

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Ignoring the time value of the Pats 3rd being in 2023, the difference between Miami’s 5th and a mid-round 3rd (I’m using 80) is equivalent of pick 189 on the Rich Hill chart. Downgrade the value of the Pats 3rd rounder for being a year out and it’s pretty minimal comp.

Edit: sorry, that’s on the Johnson chart, not Rich Hill chart.
We also have to add in a potential trade of Harry.

 

Shelterdog

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Which is precisely why they'll have a hard time trading N'Keal Harry.
Not really. His cap number for the new team won't be very high and won't be guaranteed. Pretty sure they'll have no trouble trading him for about a sixth, probably on day 2 of the draft that some team that was looking for a wideout struck out in the draft.

I know people despise Harry and he's obviously a wasted first round pick but objectively he's just a kind of typical shitty end of the roster wideout.
 

DJnVa

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If Harry is traded, the new team will be on the hook for the almost $700 K guaranteed salary Harry is due in 2022. That's not a ton but it's not nothing.
It's something, but there are always teams willing to take a shot at guys like that and all reports say there's been some interest. Even if it's a 6th--helps change the deal calculus a tiny bit.
 

lexrageorge

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The calculus with Harry is that the receiving team could either pay $700K for him, or pay $1M+ for a minimum salaried veteran. Of course, the latter is not necessarily guaranteed money, whereas Harry's salary would be. Still, for a team with the space, he could be worth taking a flyer on. The fact that he doesn't contribute on special teams will hurt his value, but I don't think getting a 6th is out of the question either.
 

Super Nomario

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It's something, but there are always teams willing to take a shot at guys like that and all reports say there's been some interest. Even if it's a 6th--helps change the deal calculus a tiny bit.
Teams might be willing to trade something, but that's enough of a chunk that it won't surprise me if teams just decide to wait it out and see if the Pats just release him (which seems likely). Depends how much competition there is and how badly teams want him.
 

rodderick

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I think if anyone was willing to give up a 6th for Harry he'd be long gone. But maybe he could be involved in a draft day late round trade up with another pick, who knows.
 

tims4wins

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Teams might be willing to trade something, but that's enough of a chunk that it won't surprise me if teams just decide to wait it out and see if the Pats just release him (which seems likely). Depends how much competition there is and how badly teams want him.
You may be right, but it seems like former first round receivers who fail for their first team usually get another shot, and anecdotally it feels like it is usually via trade. But maybe because he failed on the Pats (with Brady for one year, no less), that demand / interest might not exist like it did for other first round busts.
 

JM3

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Trade Harry for a 7th round pick swap or something.
 

Shelterdog

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The calculus with Harry is that the receiving team could either pay $700K for him, or pay $1M+ for a minimum salaried veteran. Of course, the latter is not necessarily guaranteed money, whereas Harry's salary would be. Still, for a team with the space, he could be worth taking a flyer on. The fact that he doesn't contribute on special teams will hurt his value, but I don't think getting a 6th is out of the question either.
This is one thing that surprise me about him (and my own lack of special teams knowledge is to blame)--based on what we see I would think he actually could be a decent guy on coverage teams (he's reasonably fast for his size and quite physical). Can he not tackle?

I think if anyone was willing to give up a 6th for Harry he'd be long gone. But maybe he could be involved in a draft day late round trade up with another pick, who knows.
Like i alluded to up thread I think he gets traded day two of the draft after some other team fails to draft a wideout. Why trade him for a sixth now when he might get cut or you might not have a spot because you're really happy with the wideouts you picked in round 3 and 5 of the draft or whatever.
 

mauf

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I don’t think anyone will give up value for the right to guarantee money to a 4th/5th WR who doesn’t play special teams. But it’s not like Harry has hugely negative value; if the Pats are willing to move back a few spots in the 6th/7th round to free up Harry’s money, they’ll find a taker. And if they cut him, Harry will catch on with someone — some team will suffer injuries and decide Harry is better than anyone on their practice squad.
 

johnmd20

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Wide receivers basically grow on trees. Nobody is trading anything for Harry.

edit - just as a point of example, Amon St. Brown had more yards in the final three games of 2021 than Harry has had in any of his 3 full seasons. Harry is bad, man.
 

BaseballJones

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Harry will forever be a mystery to me. Great size. Adequate speed. Very good RAC ability. Good hands. Strong. Excellent at high pointing a pass. Makes tough catches in traffic. Doesn't get great separation but there's been plenty of WRs who are tremendously productive who don't get great separation because they have sure hands, good size and strength, etc. And Harry is tough too. He has all the tools to be a good NFL wide receiver - maybe not first round pick good but still...good enough.

But he's been a zero. I don't think it's a work ethic thing either. He seems by all accounts to be hard working.

So I don't get it.
 

rodderick

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Harry will forever be a mystery to me. Great size. Adequate speed. Very good RAC ability. Good hands. Strong. Excellent at high pointing a pass. Makes tough catches in traffic. Doesn't get great separation but there's been plenty of WRs who are tremendously productive who don't get great separation because they have sure hands, good size and strength, etc. And Harry is tough too. He has all the tools to be a good NFL wide receiver - maybe not first round pick good but still...good enough.

But he's been a zero. I don't think it's a work ethic thing either. He seems by all accounts to be hard working.

So I don't get it.
I don't think he's strong against NFL competition, though. He loses in press and can't get open in zone. He gets boxed out way too easily for a guy of his size.
 

BaseballJones

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I don't think he's strong against NFL competition, though. He loses in press and can't get open in zone. He gets boxed out way too easily for a guy of his size.
He's strong enough to block linebackers and defensive ends very effectively. He's plenty strong enough for cornerbacks. So again..I don't get it.
 

Rico Guapo

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Harry will forever be a mystery to me. Great size. Adequate speed. Very good RAC ability. Good hands. Strong. Excellent at high pointing a pass. Makes tough catches in traffic. Doesn't get great separation but there's been plenty of WRs who are tremendously productive who don't get great separation because they have sure hands, good size and strength, etc. And Harry is tough too. He has all the tools to be a good NFL wide receiver - maybe not first round pick good but still...good enough.

But he's been a zero. I don't think it's a work ethic thing either. He seems by all accounts to be hard working.

So I don't get it.
He doesn't get any separation from man coverage because he's not quick nor does he run good routes, you can't be both at the NFL level have success as a wide receiver. From what I've seen he has average hands at best since he's had plenty of passes bounce off him, often times in the worst way possible, in addition to the fumbles.

View: https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1475181285563936778
 

Cellar-Door

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He doesn't get any separation from man coverage because he's not quick nor does he run good routes, you can't be both at the NFL level have success as a wide receiver. From what I've seen he has average hands at best since he's had plenty of passes bounce off him, often times in the worst way possible, in addition to the fumbles.

View: https://twitter.com/Tucker_TnL/status/1475181285563936778
Marquez Valdez Scantling has been targeted 247 times, 125 of those (50.6%) have resulted in incompletion, pick or fumble... he just signed a 3 year $30M deal. It's a dumb way of measuring anything about a WR because it provides no context.
 

johnmd20

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Marquez Valdez Scantling has been targeted 247 times, 125 of those (50.6%) have resulted in incompletion, pick or fumble... he just signed a 3 year $30M deal. It's a dumb way of measuring anything about a WR because it provides no context.
But it is not without context. Harry isn't MVS, he's certainly much slower than MVS, who averages 17.5 yards per catch in his career. Nkeal is 10.5.

So you think those 7 yards per catch don't matter when comparing catch rate?
 

Cellar-Door

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But it is not without context. Harry isn't MVS, he's certainly much slower than MVS, who averages 17.5 yards per catch in his career. Nkeal is 10.5.

So you think those 7 yards per catch don't matter when comparing catch rate?
No, I was pointing out that catch rate isn't a good metric at all for measuring a WR, and rolling incompletions in with fumbles and INTs is dumb as well.
There are many legitimate reasons to say Harry isn't good... that was not a good one.

Edit- for example, last year Harry's catch% was 55% at 8.4 Y/T. That's basically Courtland Sutton's career averages... was N"Keal as good as Sutton? He had a better catch rate and y/t than DeVante Parker, Odell, JuJu, he was in shouting distance of Claypoole, Moore and Davis....

It's just not a good stat, especially when looking at low volumes of targets
 
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johnmd20

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No, I was pointing out that catch rate isn't a good metric at all for measuring a WR, and rolling incompletions in with fumbles and INTs is dumb as well.
There are many legitimate reasons to say Harry isn't good... that was not a good one.
For a guy with a low A Dot, Harry's catch rate numbers are atrocious. It's a perfectly solid way to look at why he isn't good.
 

Cellar-Door

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For a guy with a low A Dot, Harry's catch rate numbers are atrocious. It's a perfectly solid way to look at why he isn't good.
He ADot last year was 14.9 yards, which is very high. Even with the Cam year thrown in his ADOT for his career is 9.8.

Catch rate is a dumb stat, adding fumbles and INTs in makes it dumber. If you want to argue for catch% as a relation to ADOT and Y/T... sure feel free, but honestly he doesn't show poorly in those metrics, and it's all tiny samples.

The real argument for why Harry isn't good is that he can't consistently GET targets because he doesn't get separation, but it's not his catch rate, that's just picking a meaningless small sample and tweeting it without context.

Harry's failures are seen on film, if you just took his stat line blind (with volume removed) against a bunch of other WRs, it looks fine in terms of catch rate, ADOT, etc. Particularly last year, which would look GOOD... if you didn't know it was only 22 targets.
 

BigSoxFan

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To me it was the injury in the preseason Lions game. He had like 3 catches in the first half prior to the injury, looking very good. That injury changed everything IMO
Didn’t Edelman tear his ACL in a Lions preseason game too? But you’re right - he looked very promising in that one. No idea what happened.
 

Super Nomario

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Harry will forever be a mystery to me. Great size. Adequate speed. Very good RAC ability. Good hands. Strong. Excellent at high pointing a pass. Makes tough catches in traffic. Doesn't get great separation but there's been plenty of WRs who are tremendously productive who don't get great separation because they have sure hands, good size and strength, etc. And Harry is tough too. He has all the tools to be a good NFL wide receiver - maybe not first round pick good but still...good enough.

But he's been a zero. I don't think it's a work ethic thing either. He seems by all accounts to be hard working.

So I don't get it.
To me, the answer is that these kinds of tools are overrated and the nuance and technique of playing WR is underrated. Harry has the strengths you mention, but he's awful getting off press coverage, even against smaller players, doesn't create separation at his breaks, doesn't seem to make the right adjustments consistently / appears to have playbook issues, doesn't shield defenders with his body when he's in position, doesn't stack defenders on the rare occasion he's able to get vertical separation, makes spectacular catches but drops easy ones, and dances too much with the ball in his hands instead of using his size / strength.
 

Shelterdog

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To me, the answer is that these kinds of tools are overrated and the nuance and technique of playing WR is underrated. Harry has the strengths you mention, but he's awful getting off press coverage, even against smaller players, doesn't create separation at his breaks, doesn't seem to make the right adjustments consistently / appears to have playbook issues, doesn't shield defenders with his body when he's in position, doesn't stack defenders on the rare occasion he's able to get vertical separation, makes spectacular catches but drops easy ones, and dances too much with the ball in his hands instead of using his size / strength.
The one thing that surprised me about Harry is that I thought from watching him play in college (mostly beating up my poor Stanford Cardinal) that he was pretty decent at body positioning, a sense of where he was, catching the ball in traffic. Obviously I was wrong-- I guess he was big/strong/fast enough to look good at the soft skills when crushing Stanford defensive backs, but just not powerful enough to do it at the NFL level.
 

SMU_Sox

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When I watched Harry I saw some really bad DB play in college. I saw above average to good possible RAC ability but a lot of that was me wondering - is this actually good RAC or just really bad safety and corner play. I think others have covered it but if you can’t run routes well and you don’t have quickness or are an elite box-out player you just won’t make it at X. I think they figured they could teach him how to run better routes and clean up his releases and stems but he has made little to no progress there. The thing that really shocked me though was how bad his RAC was. I didn’t think it was a special trait but I figured at the least he could be a decent schemed touches guy only to see 185 pound DBs tackling him with ease.
 

Pandemonium67

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I remember in the offseason after his first year, or maybe preseason of his second year, the team had Harry really focusing on his footwork. I was convinced he was going to put that first disappointing season behind him and become the beast I figured BB had drafted.
 

DourDoerr

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The one thing that surprised me about Harry is that I thought from watching him play in college (mostly beating up my poor Stanford Cardinal) that he was pretty decent at body positioning, a sense of where he was, catching the ball in traffic. Obviously I was wrong-- I guess he was big/strong/fast enough to look good at the soft skills when crushing Stanford defensive backs, but just not powerful enough to do it at the NFL level.
Given his evident size and rep as a blocker, it doesn't seem strength would be the biggest factor in his failure. Doesn't this all point to poor technique and thus to an inability to absorb coaching? Perhaps Parker can enlighten and unlock him - if Harry lasts that long.

Agree on poor RAC. Thought he'd at least bowl guys over and throw a few out of the club, but he gets tackled surprisingly easy.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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The one thing that surprised me about Harry is that I thought from watching him play in college (mostly beating up my poor Stanford Cardinal) that he was pretty decent at body positioning, a sense of where he was, catching the ball in traffic. Obviously I was wrong-- I guess he was big/strong/fast enough to look good at the soft skills when crushing Stanford defensive backs, but just not powerful enough to do it at the NFL level.
This is the thing that has really stood out to me. I don't expect everyone to be Mike Williams with godlike spatial awareness and timing and high-point ability and body control but you have to have some of those things to some degree, especially if you can't get separation.
 

GB5

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Those Detroit highlights are unreal and I dont remember them at all. I was always hoping he would make the jump, but it isnt going to work here, and I suspect anywhere for him. Those two throws they made to him in Detroit, I dont remember him making more than one or two of those types of catches in his three years combined. His best game had to be the one at Seattle in Cam's second game. What worked for him there that he couldnt replicate? I think Seattle had a poor secondary that year, but still he showed life.

I just about knew it was over, but him dropping a wide open long TD pass from Mac against the Giants in the preseason and nearly killing himself while dropping it was the end of the hope for me.
 

ShaneTrot

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Given his evident size and rep as a blocker, it doesn't seem strength would be the biggest factor in his failure. Doesn't this all point to poor technique and thus to an inability to absorb coaching? Perhaps Parker can enlighten and unlock him - if Harry lasts that long.

Agree on poor RAC. Thought he'd at least bowl guys over and throw a few out of the club, but he gets tackled surprisingly easy.
There was a WR screen against the Dolphins in 2020, in which he was tackled by a smaller DB and it was actually shocking how easily he went down. I wonder if he goes to a less intense atmosphere, will he prosper?
 

Shelterdog

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There was a WR screen against the Dolphins in 2020, in which he was tackled by a smaller DB and it was actually shocking how easily he went down. I wonder if he goes to a less intense atmosphere, will he prosper?
As I remember the play he was kind of off balance and dancing a little and wasn't expecting contact and got drilled--the issue as I saw it wasn't so much that he wasn't tough or strong or anything (as I recall a lot of observers saying) it's that he seemed to be almost blissfully unaware that yes this little corner standing in front of him was in the knocking the shit out of people business.

A good football player would obviously have decisively run over or around the DB.
 

cornwalls@6

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He strikes me as not being a fluid athlete at all. Stiff in the hips, stilted, not natural looking when running routes. He apparently had some of the combine attributes like raw strength, vertical, decent straight line speed. But he lacks functional, on field physical skills, along with the above mentioned technique and nuanced feel for the position, to be consistently productive at the NFL level. Seems like a good dude who works hard, but I’m very doubtful a new home will make much difference in his level of play either.
 
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He strikes me as not being a fluid athlete at all. Stiff in the hips, stilted, not natural looking when running routes. He apparently had some of the combine attributes like raw strength, vertical, decent straight line speed. But he lacks functional, on field physical skills, along with the above mentioned technique and nuanced feel for the position, to be consistently productive at the NFL level. Seems like a good dude who works hard, but I’m very doubtful a new home will make much difference in his level of play either.
I agree and that’s REALLY fucking frustrating because that stiffness, the obvious, visible lack of natural route running skills are things that evaluators can SEE when working prospects out! I understand it’s more complicated than some of us make it out to be, but holy CRAP, this isn’t an issue like “We thought he’d be able to pick up the system or be able to adjust to post-snap option routes.” These are issues that WORKING A PLAYER OUT should at least provide some level of insight on. Oh Deebo…
 

Eddie Jurak

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He strikes me as not being a fluid athlete at all. Stiff in the hips, stilted, not natural looking when running routes. He apparently had some of the combine attributes like raw strength, vertical, decent straight line speed. But he lacks functional, on field physical skills, along with the above mentioned technique and nuanced feel for the position, to be consistently productive at the NFL level. Seems like a good dude who works hard, but I’m very doubtful a new home will make much difference in his level of play either.
I think this is right. He also seems like the most likely guy on the team to get up slowly and perhaps be injured after a diving catch/attempt.
 

cornwalls@6

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I agree and that’s REALLY fucking frustrating because that stiffness, the obvious, visible lack of natural route running skills are things that evaluators can SEE when working prospects out! I understand it’s more complicated than some of us make it out to be, but holy CRAP, this isn’t an issue like “We thought he’d be able to pick up the system or be able to adjust to post-snap option routes.” These are issues that WORKING A PLAYER OUT should at least provide some level of insight on. Oh Deebo…
………..Every time I watch a 49er game, a little part of me dies.
 
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Shelterdog

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I agree and that’s REALLY fucking frustrating because that stiffness, the obvious, visible lack of natural route running skills are things that evaluators can SEE when working prospects out! I understand it’s more complicated than some of us make it out to be, but holy CRAP, this isn’t an issue like “We thought he’d be able to pick up the system or be able to adjust to post-snap option routes.” These are issues that WORKING A PLAYER OUT should at least provide some level of insight on. Oh Deebo…
YOU CAN SAY IT IN ALL CAPS BUT WHAT YOU SAY WASN'T OBVIOUS AT THE TIME TO MANY TALENT EVALUATORS. THIS ISN'T JORDAN RICHARDS WHERE THE PATS PICK SOMEONE IN ROUND TWO NO ONE THOUGHT WAS GOOD.
 

BaseballJones

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Correct. Read the scouting reports on Harry. They were virtually all very much on board with the idea that he was going to be a really good pro. They varied in HOW good, but they all said he was going to be good. His strengths more than made up for his weaknesses, and he had what it took to succeed in the NFL.

That he hasn't IS a mystery, really. That he hasn't lived up to being a first round pick might be something a lot of people could have predicted, but that he's been basically no success at ALL truly is a mystery that nobody really saw coming.
 

Shelterdog

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That he hasn't IS a mystery, really. That he hasn't lived up to being a first round pick might be something a lot of people could have predicted, but that he's been basically no success at ALL truly is a mystery that nobody really saw coming.
It's not a mystery either, late first round picks bomb pretty frequently. It's really hard to project college players to the pros. Greg Little was picked a couple picks after Harry and he's essentially out of the league at this point and hasn't played since 2020. DeAndre Baker and LJ Collier were picked shortly before Harry and they suck too. There's too small a sample size to really tell if anyone is talented at drafting and maybe it's all just random. In any even Harry sucks, the Pats blew it, it hurts the team a reasonable amount to blow a first round pick, and it's made worse by the fact that guys like Deebo (who had a lot of question marks too) turned out so well.

EDIT: Man that draft was really boom or bust for receivers. Marquise Brown (pretty good) then Harry (shit) then Deebo (great) then AJ Brown (great) then Mecole Hardman (decent) then JJ Acrega Whitside Paris Campbell and Andy Isabella (all possibly sub Harry quality) then DK Metcalf then Diontae Johnson (great when not dropping balls) then Hurd (yet to play an NFL down) then McLaurin (quite good) then 4 guys with a collective 578 yards then Hunter Renfrow and Darius Slayton.
 
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BaseballJones

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I get you @Shelterdog. What I meant was that yes, while a high percentage of even first rounders don't do well in the NFL, there was very little reason to think that Harry *in particular* wasn't going to be at least pretty good.