The Case for Chase.

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Niastri

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In the 3b thread, most posters are estimating that Sandoval and Ramirez are both significant threats to hit $100 million in contracts.  The consensus seems to be that Chase Headley will be signed to a much smaller contract due to his age and less stylish performance.
 
I think I would prefer to have Chase straight up over the other two top of the marker third basemen, regardless of cost.  The savings he can get for the Sox compared to the other two is just gravy.
 
Firstly, Headley is a very good defensive player, better than Sandoval and probably (unknown) much better than Ramirez.  Fangraphs has Headley as a 10.8 UZR/150 3b for his career.  His performance last year was 28 UZR/150, which really drove his value.  He will almost certainly continue to be a plus defensive player for the term of his contract if he only signs for 4 years.  At the least, we won't expect him to need to come off third to be a DH, like we do Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval who each may get 6 year contracts that put them well past their primes.  In addition we don't know how well Ramirez will adjust to third or how much Sandoval will blimp after getting a big contract.
 
Secondly, Headley is a much better hitter than his .243/.328/.372/.700 line from last year indicates.  He had a 27.4% linedrive % and 40.6% ground ball % to go with his 32% fly ball %.  In spite of his very high 27.4% linedrive %, he only put up a BABIP of .301.  That is very low compared to his career BABIP of .331.  This was in spite of his linedrive % being higher than any other season in his career.  He only hit .660 on his line drives last year.  He was even more unlucky in 2013, hitting only .640 on linedrives.  His .243 batting average would have been much better given even normal luck on line drives.  He is a pretty patient hitter, with a career 10.3% BB rate, and strikes out only 22.6% of the time, with a 4.02 pitches per plate appearance.  He will slot in nicely as a lefty in the 5 spot behind either Napoli or Cespedes against RHP to provide balance as well as keeping the lineup going and drive in some runs.
 
Thirdly, Headley has a profile that stands to be much helped by being in the AL East.  This is much less important than the first two considerations but definitely a consideration, and one I have spent the most time thinking about, and charting.  Headley is primarily a pull hitter from both sides of the plate.  However, he does use the whole field so he won't get the crazy shifts that you are seeing these days.  Most importantly, he will make good use of Fenway park.  His homers to right field as a left handed hitter and no doubters, and he has an awful lot of flyouts that might squeak around the Pesky pole. He also hits a lot of flyballs and liners to left (probably soft liners and popups) that are outs in the NL West that could scrape the wall in Fenway.  Many of his pulled fly balls that are outs in the NL West will be homers in the bandboxes in the AL East.  In the smaller ballparks in the AL East, his spray chart profiles much better than where he has played in the past.  His is a linedrive/flyball hitter as a right handed hitter, which obviously profiles nicely in Fenway.  His OPS+ jumped from 90 before the trade to 119 with the Yankees, which works well with my theory that he may be an undervalued hitter.  In spite of his bad luck with BABIP, he was a fWAR 4.4 player of and brWAR of 3.5.  If we can get a 3.5-4 WAR player for 4/68, we should jump right on that opportunity.   Especially if my expectation that he will be even better next year than his last two years in the AL East.  Then you consider that Sandoval and Ramirez are likely to have much higher committments and annual salaries, and Headley is clearly the best 3b free agent for the Red Sox. 
 
Headley is probably a 20 million a year player, but won't command that on the market.
 
 
 
 
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=4720&position=3B&type=battedball&pid2=4720&ss1=2012&se1=2014&ss2=2012&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=R&vs2=R
 
 
 

Hank Scorpio

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ivanvamp said:
I cannot even fathom paying Chase Headley $20 million a season.
 
Seconded, although if I could get him for $13-15M per season for four years rather than Sandoval for $18-21M per for six years, I'd do it in a cocaine heartbeat. And if a 4/52 - 4/60 deal is possible, the Sox should really wrap it up right away, as in yesterday, before Sandoval sets the market with some sort of absurd contract.
 
Dec 10, 2012
6,943
My preferences:
 
1) Garin at the minimum
2) Reasonable trade for Donaldson (not gonna happen)
3) WMB for one more year
4) Beltre reasonable trade
5) Chase at $13x4 or less
6) Hanley at $22x4 or less
7) Panda at $15x3 or less (please no more years)
8) Aram at $16x2 or less (please no more years)
 

CaskNFappin

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May 20, 2013
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Garin at the minimum is your top choice? You paying salaries in 2015?! <br />
<br />
Cmon man....let's not risk a second straight year of absolute crap from the hot corner. Garin could be a decent player, but it's also likely he'll be a black hole.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I like a shorter commitment for Headley better than a monster contract for Panda or Hanley. But I think you oversell Headley here in several ways. The biggest issue with him is figuring out what are actual skills that are likely to project going forward.

For example, he obviously was unlucky with BABIP last year given his LD%. But I wouldn't expect him to put up a 27% LD mark going forward or anything close.

His defensive ratings have also been all over the map from year to year. It's really not obvious to me that he projects as a great defensive player going forward, especially as he physically declines. Take away the rave defense from last year and he's a pretty meh contributor.

Both his power and his walk rate have also now declined for two straight years. Where does that end?

He's still probably my first choice given rumored contract size, but I don't think he's this monster player and nobody in baseball realizes it except SOSH.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
He's still probably my first choice given rumored contract size, but I don't think he's this monster player and nobody in baseball realizes it except SOSH.
I don't think anybody's saying he's a monster player. The point is more that Panda isn't a monster player either--they're both solid, above-average players, no more, no less--but Headley seems the more likely of the two to be priced at or possibly even below his real value.
 

Niastri

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Savin Hillbilly said:
I don't think anybody's saying he's a monster player. The point is more that Panda isn't a monster player either--they're both solid, above-average players, no more, no less--but Headley seems the more likely of the two to be priced at or possibly even below his real value.
Exactly my point.
 
I think Headley may be better than Sandoval head to head...  Yet he might make barely more than half of Sandoval in their next contracts.
 

GRPhilipp

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
I like a shorter commitment for Headley better than a monster contract for Panda or Hanley. But I think you oversell Headley here in several ways. The biggest issue with him is figuring out what are actual skills that are likely to project going forward.

For example, he obviously was unlucky with BABIP last year given his LD%. But I wouldn't expect him to put up a 27% LD mark going forward or anything close.

His defensive ratings have also been all over the map from year to year. It's really not obvious to me that he projects as a great defensive player going forward, especially as he physically declines. Take away the rave defense from last year and he's a pretty meh contributor.

Both his power and his walk rate have also now declined for two straight years. Where does that end?

He's still probably my first choice given rumored contract size, but I don't think he's this monster player and nobody in baseball realizes it except SOSH.
 
A perfectly reasonable response to the OP.  Headley on a 3-4 year deal, even if it's at a higher AAV than we have historically seen for players of similar stature, just seems to make so much sense.  
 
The comps aren't perfect, and I'm probably pushing the analogy too far, but to me the arguments for Hanley sound eerily reminiscent of what we heard during the fateful offseason of 2010-2011.  The arguments for Headley sound a lot more 2012-2013'ish.  
 
Put differently, I hope they don't pay $20M+/yr for 5 or 6 years of Hanley or Pablo.  That will look to me like part of an attempt to "win the offseason" and the recent history of teams that do that is not good.  Maybe I'm alone and off-base for feeling this way, but I think one of the reasons I prefer Headley is that he seems to symbolize the less flashy approach that we've seen in the teams that have won the last five World Series.
 

Jimbodandy

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
His defensive ratings have also been all over the map from year to year. It's really not obvious to me that he projects as a great defensive player going forward, especially as he physically declines. Take away the rave defense from last year and he's a pretty meh contributor.
 
 
This is an understatement.  Headley is the poster child for the dubious state of defensive runs metrics.  Per Fangraphs, leaving out his 8-game 2007, he's -12, -11, +19, -2, +10, +9, +21.  That's about as worthless as data gets.  So in his mid-20s he improved 30 runs in one year, only to regress 21 runs the next year, only to improve 12 runs the next year, etc.
 
The Sandoval numbers aren't much better, but this is the Case for Chase thread.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jimbodandy said:
 
This is an understatement.  Headley is the poster child for the dubious state of defensive runs metrics.  Per Fangraphs, leaving out his 8-game 2007, he's -12, -11, +19, -2, +10, +9, +21.  That's about as worthless as data gets.  So in his mid-20s he improved 30 runs in one year, only to regress 21 runs the next year, only to improve 12 runs the next year, etc.
 
The Sandoval numbers aren't much better, but this is the Case for Chase thread.
 
This reads much differently if you actually look at what happened.
 
2008: He played mostly LF
2009: Ditto
2011: Injury year--he missed almost a third of the season with a fractured finger. Granted, this wouldn't have affected his UZR/150 (especially since the injury happened in August and he didn't play again till the following year), but the smaller sample might have impacted the accuracy of the numbers (which aren't terribly accurate anyway on a one-year basis, as we know). Still, this does look like a mild down year (DRS grades it at +1).
 
His UZR numbers for seasons in which he played 1000 or more innings at 3B are 16.5, 7.3, 7.0, 20.9. That last number looks like a pretty obvious example of UZR's imprecision--DRS says 13--but still the overall import is pretty clear: he's an excellent defensive third baseman.
 

Jimbodandy

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
His UZR numbers for seasons in which he played 1000 or more innings at 3B are 16.5, 7.3, 7.0, 20.9. That last number looks like a pretty obvious example of UZR's imprecision--DRS says 13--but still the overall import is pretty clear: he's an excellent defensive third baseman.
 
Not just the last number, the first number also.  You dispute my point and prove it with the same post.
 

williams_482

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Headley's batting runs for each season in his career, excepting 2007:
 
+3.4, +3.2, -1.8, +10.7, +37.9, +9.4, +1.5. 
 
So in his late 20s he improved 12.5 runs, then another 27.2 runs, then immediately declined by 28.5 runs. Obviously, batting runs are a useless metric.
 

DanoooME

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I'd love to get him at the Red Sox Standard Veteran Deal tm of 3/$39M, but I think that's a pipe dream.  Where do you draw the line if Hanley/Pablo get at least 5 years/$100M?  I could probably accept 4/$60M if I had to.  I don't think it's worth signing him for 5 years and he might even get $80-$85M from someone at that point.
 

Jimbodandy

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williams_482 said:
Headley's batting runs for each season in his career, excepting 2007:
 
+3.4, +3.2, -1.8, +10.7, +37.9, +9.4, +1.5. 
 
So in his late 20s he improved 12.5 runs, then another 27.2 runs, then immediately declined by 28.5 runs. Obviously, batting runs are a useless metric.
 
No.  Those show a nice bell curve of a guy who had a sweet 200 game run of awesome in the midst of a meh career.  Not exactly an endorsement of him either, unless you believe that the falloff was purely injury-related.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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Jimbodandy said:
 
Not just the last number, the first number also.  You dispute my point and prove it with the same post.
 
For what it's worth, his DRS number for that year (2010) was very close, at 14. It was his age 26 year, and his first full year back at his natural position after being moved off it for Kouzmanoff for two years. So it doesn't seem implausible that he might have hit a defensive peak that year. As has often been noted, players have up and down years on defense as well as offense. The 2014 UZR number looks fishier to me--he presumably did have an up year on defense, but maybe not a 20-run up year.
 
The main point is that while the numbers have fluctuated, they have fluctuated around a mean that's pretty damn good. He's got over 6,000 career innings at 3B now, with a UZR/150 of 10.8 and a DRS that amounts to 6.2 runs per 150 games. I think that's a substantial enough record to support saying that Headley is a superior defensive third baseman, with a glove that's probably worth at least a half a win, maybe a win a year over an average defensive 3B. You're free to think otherwise, of course.
 

BosRedSox5

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Part of the reason I would prefer Chase is because his contract wouldn't be likely to dictate playing time. If you have a superstar making superstar money at a position it's much more difficult to work in other players. With Sandoval, we wouldn't be likely to see much or WMB or Garrin or Holt or whoever else. I think Headley gives us a lot more flexibility there. 
 

Green Monster

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Another Chase?
I don't believe Utley has ever played 3B at the MLB level, but I think he could do it.  Would the Phillies consider moving him?  His numbers over the past few seasons compare to Headly and might be even be a tad better, although these are raw numbers and are not adjusted for park factor so that might not actually be true.  Utley's remaining contract is largerly based on his ability to stay in the lineup.  It would max out at 4/$60M if he is healthy and productive or could be as low as 1/$10M.  Headley is specultated to be slightly less expensive than the Utley maximum, but deals generally exceed the early projected numbers.
 
Thoughts?
 
 
                       [SIZE=small]Year[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]G[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]AB [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]R[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]H[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]HR[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]RBI[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]BB[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]KO[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]BA[/SIZE]        [SIZE=small]OBP[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]SLG[/SIZE]      [SIZE=small]OPS[/SIZE]
Utley                [SIZE=small]2014[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]155[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]589[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]74[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]159[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]11[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]78[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]53[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]85[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]0.2699[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3389 [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]0.4075 [/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]0.7464[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                   3Yr Avg[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]106[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]392[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]58[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]105[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]13   [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]53[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]42[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]56[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]0.2679[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3504[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.4439 [/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]0.7943[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Contract: [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]2015 - $10M w/ $5M incentive for limited DL time[/SIZE]                  
[SIZE=small]2016-2018 - $15M vesting options triggered by 500 AB's the previous season[/SIZE]                                      
 
Headley                            
[SIZE=small]                       Year[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]G[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]AB[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]R[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]H[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]HR [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]RBI[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]BB[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]KO[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]BA[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]OBP[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]SLG[/SIZE]      [SIZE=small]OPS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                        2014[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]135[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]470[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]55[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]114[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]13[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]49[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]51[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]122[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.2426[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3277[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3723[/SIZE]   [SIZE=medium]0.7000[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                  3 Yr Avg[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]138[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]502[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]66[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]138[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]16[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]70[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]68[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]130[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.2749[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3661[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.4402[/SIZE]  [SIZE=medium]0.8063[/SIZE]
 
edit: formatting                          
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Savin Hillbilly said:
 
This reads much differently if you actually look at what happened.
 
2008: He played mostly LF
2009: Ditto
2011: Injury year--he missed almost a third of the season with a fractured finger. Granted, this wouldn't have affected his UZR/150 (especially since the injury happened in August and he didn't play again till the following year), but the smaller sample might have impacted the accuracy of the numbers (which aren't terribly accurate anyway on a one-year basis, as we know). Still, this does look like a mild down year (DRS grades it at +1).
 
His UZR numbers for seasons in which he played 1000 or more innings at 3B are 16.5, 7.3, 7.0, 20.9. That last number looks like a pretty obvious example of UZR's imprecision--DRS says 13--but still the overall import is pretty clear: he's an excellent defensive third baseman.
 
 
I'll own up to not realizing that he was playing LF when he put up the bad numbers in 2008 and 2009, although I think its a little disingenuous to discount his 2011 because he only played 900 innings at 3B. Overall, this definitely makes me more bullish on his defense than before but I still think you need to factor in some decline.  How many 3B have maintained top level (say >10 UZR/150) defensive performance after 31 in the post-steroid era?  Admittedly, the sample of 3B over that age is kind of small given that's its now a young man's game in general but I can really only think of Adrian Beltre and Placido Polanco and a quick look at defensive leaderboards shows a ton of guys in their 20s.  I'm not saying that Headley won't do it, but there's a lot of risk in projecting his future value in his 30s heavily based on past defensive performance in his 20s.
 

DanoooME

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Green Monster said:
Another Chase?
I don't believe Utley has ever played 3B at the MLB level, but I think he could do it.  Would the Phillies consider moving him?  His numbers over the past few seasons compare to Headly and might be even be a tad better, although these are raw numbers and are not adjusted for park factor so that might not actually be true.  Utley's remaining contract is largerly based on his ability to stay in the lineup.  It would max out at 4/$60M if he is healthy and productive or could be as low as 1/$10M.  Headley is specultated to be slightly less expensive than the Utley maximum, but deals generally exceed the early projected numbers.
 
Thoughts?
 
 
                       [SIZE=small]Year[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]G[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]AB [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]R[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]H[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]HR[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]RBI[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]BB[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]KO[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]BA[/SIZE]        [SIZE=small]OBP[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]SLG[/SIZE]      [SIZE=small]OPS[/SIZE]
Utley                [SIZE=small]2014[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]155[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]589[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]74[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]159[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]11[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]78[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]53[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]85[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]0.2699[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3389 [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]0.4075 [/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]0.7464[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                   3Yr Avg[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]106[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]392[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]58[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]105[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]13   [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]53[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]42[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]56[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]0.2679[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3504[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.4439 [/SIZE] [SIZE=medium]0.7943[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]Contract: [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]2015 - $10M w/ $5M incentive for limited DL time[/SIZE]                  
[SIZE=small]2016-2018 - $15M vesting options triggered by 500 AB's the previous season[/SIZE]                                      
 
Headley                            
[SIZE=small]                       Year[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]G[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]AB[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]R[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]H[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]HR [/SIZE] [SIZE=small]RBI[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]BB[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]KO[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]BA[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]OBP[/SIZE]     [SIZE=small]SLG[/SIZE]      [SIZE=small]OPS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                        2014[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]135[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]470[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]55[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]114[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]13[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]49[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]51[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]122[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.2426[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3277[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3723[/SIZE]   [SIZE=medium]0.7000[/SIZE]
[SIZE=small]                  3 Yr Avg[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]138[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]502[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]66[/SIZE] [SIZE=small]138[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]16[/SIZE]   [SIZE=small]70[/SIZE]    [SIZE=small]68[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]130[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.2749[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.3661[/SIZE]  [SIZE=small]0.4402[/SIZE]  [SIZE=medium]0.8063[/SIZE]
 
edit: formatting                          
 
If the Phillies ever traded Chase Utley, Phillies fans would burn down Citizen's Bank Park and draw and quarter Ruben Amaro.  That's never happening.
 

The X Man Cometh

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Dec 13, 2013
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DanoooME said:
 
If the Phillies ever traded Chase Utley, Phillies fans would burn down Citizen's Bank Park and draw and quarter Ruben Amaro.  That's never happening.
 
At this rate, Phillies fans might do that anyway.
 

Drek717

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DanoooME said:
 
If the Phillies ever traded Chase Utley, Phillies fans would burn down Citizen's Bank Park and draw and quarter Ruben Amaro.  That's never happening.
Doesn't Utley also have 10/5 rights and a contract that after next year is entirely predicated on playing time?  The Sox could easily, and with fan support, manage his playing time to keep him under that PA threshold.  Hell, he's had a major platoon split for the last four years running, so it would even make strategic sense to do so.  If Philly tried that ownership would get crucified.  So if you're Utley why would you approve a trade to a team that would 1. require you to change positions and 2. only decrease your chances of those three $15M options vesting?
 
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