The Celtics Offseason
- Thread starter kazuneko
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There are actually players you'd want from Houston, the problem is that you're not getting them. You're trading Marcus into their cap space and getting a top 20 protected first that converts into second round picks. And then if you're past the second apron you're not getting a TPE. And if you're dealing one of your five healthy rotation guys your acquisition price for anyone else goes up because everyone knows that you're desperate. The new CBA has really put the pads to teams like Boston and Golden State.
I think it comes down to a decision on single year team building vs multi year team building. If you sign JB to the super max then you doing so either because you think by tinkering around the edges this team is more likely to land the trophy next year OR you think there is still significant growth to unlock for Jaylen. Players become better shooters over time, so I don't doubt there is some improvement there. It is more rare that they become significantly better shot creators or distributors. If JB is resigned they will likely tinker around the edges to win next year (e.g. run it back) as I don't think there is a ton of unlocked value there.
A long term perspective would set this team up to take advantage of the CBA for the next 5 years, and that path is choosing one of JB or JT. Can they run it back with both JT and JB and then look to offload Jaylen? Maybe. But on a larger contract he becomes harder to move (no TPE, crazier match requirements). IMO if you can get Bridges + Claxton type of deal that provides a more reasonable competition path beyond next year. I'd need to check Claxton's contract but his deal might be at a duration that allows us weight out Horford / TL.
A long term perspective would set this team up to take advantage of the CBA for the next 5 years, and that path is choosing one of JB or JT. Can they run it back with both JT and JB and then look to offload Jaylen? Maybe. But on a larger contract he becomes harder to move (no TPE, crazier match requirements). IMO if you can get Bridges + Claxton type of deal that provides a more reasonable competition path beyond next year. I'd need to check Claxton's contract but his deal might be at a duration that allows us weight out Horford / TL.
I assume you mean what we commonly call the supermax. Kemba is one.
Anthony Davis made it clear that he would not accept the supermax from New Orleans. IIRC, KD declined to stay with OKC for the supermax.
Gobert?
Brown is also fairly high up in the NBAPA, and that matters in situations such as these. He will want the supermax just for that reason.
No snark intended, but do you mean he’s slipped into a role player role or always was one? Can’t remember a role player ever winning DPOY.
They do. There are star defenders and offensive zeroes like Ben Wallace, Marcus Camby won one on his back nine. Then other decent offensive players and defensive stars like Joakim Noah and Ron Artest. Smart fits in with that group of people that were defensive stars that played enough offense to get the award.
Absolutely, and this goes for some of the other ideas being discussed (coaching change, trading Smart, etc.). You always want to be opportunistic and make moves if they are available. It just seems like where the Celtics are contractually, as @nighthob points out, limits their options to do so. Plus, certain players are going to have more value to the Celtics than potentially in a trade (like Smart). Plus, there is collateral downside if you do something like let Mazzulla go or JB walk.
Right, I should have been more clear. It's not that Houston (or Utah) is devoid of guys you'd want. There's just no reason for them to move them for Marcus.
All the talk about the new CBA rules affecting the Celtics are interesting and certainly complicated, but I just looked at the rosters and contract status of the Nuggets, Heat, Lakers, Bucks, Sixers, etc and essentially every team has the same problem and will have very difficult decisions to make. Are any of them really set up better than the C's with regard to JT and JB at supermax?
A couple of notes from what I read above. KD never turned down a Supermax. It was created in response to him going to Golden State. We aren't sure if Kawhi was ever offered it but he could have turned it down. Davis forced his way out before he would be offered it but he had qualified. Cousins was traded away so the Kings wouldn't have had to make the decision. Kemba wasn't even offered a max when he was available for a Super Max.
Aren’t you proving @nighthob’s point with that offer?
Olynyk and Gay or Burks and filler for Marcus are both completely underwhelming (especially the Burks one. I don’t mind moving Marcus but that’s a shit return)
I’m not going to try to craft a trade with Houston or Utah because there are too many moving parts with our cap situation and probably a third team is involved. I’m saying I think it’s probable that some teams value Smart similarly to the Celtics.
And if there’s one thing I’m not at all scared about it’s our ability to understand and maneuver around the cap. I think Zarren has been an absolute wizard in the prior CBA and expect he’s giving Brad all the options necessary to understand impact
And if there’s one thing I’m not at all scared about it’s our ability to understand and maneuver around the cap. I think Zarren has been an absolute wizard in the prior CBA and expect he’s giving Brad all the options necessary to understand impact
So guys who said they wouldn't sign and were traded include:
Kawhi, Anthony Davis, Paul George
Offered and signed less:
Gobert
Offered less and signed elsewhere:
Kemba
If the point is role players will return role players... yes?
I was more pointing out that it doesn't have to be bench role players on a contender, it could be role players from anywhere.
I do think you could probably end up with better than that and noted it. I just happened to know the salaries of those guys because I looked at them around the deadline.
For example if TOR blows it up you could probably add a sweetener and get FVV on his player option, if you can find the cash Hayward and Porzingis are probably options who have upside, Hawks would probably like to get off a wing contract (Bogdan or Hunter), some sign and trade option in there too.
In the literal sense, you are right. That doesn't mean the point that teams who reach just within a few games of a championship don't usually blow it up unless they have to.
sure, but context maters. The Celtics don't need to blow it up, and I doubt they will, BUT,.... the only true blow it up move is trading Jaylen, and that is driven by money and to an extent his choices, if he had 3 years left on his deal we likely aren't even discussing trading him yet. Stuff like trading Smart... not even close to blowing it up, that's the kind of move teams on the verge make all the time moving a guy somewhere between 3rd and 6th best on the team to try and improve short or long term
I think this is correct. I think there are plenty of teams that are play-in types could view him as someone who could really help push them up a tier.
This isn't the thread to discuss the Miami series BUT
My #3 on this team, Derrick White, was very efficient in this series (49% from 3)
OTOH Jaylen Brown shot like garbage, turned the ball over, and never once exceeded his ppg (26.6) in this series.
Jaylen literally took a discount from the max he could have received with his current contract. Instead of 4 years $130 million, he took 4 years $115 million. Not to say he would accept less than the Supermax in this situation, especially with the All NBA 2nd team vote reinforcing his belief he is a top 10 player. (We as fans know he falls a ways below the top 10, but you gotta have self confidence as a pro athlete.) In addition to the trade talk that may have soured his relationship with the organization a bit. Just to demonstrate it can't be 100% ruled out.
I think even more importantly, Brown for years has felt like he was thought less of than Jason Tatum, despite being in the league one year longer (same #3 lottery position). I think he would think that getting less than Tatum would be an insult.
I view every trade through green tinted glasses, but I keep coming back to Memphis as a spot for Smart if they want to replace outgoing Brooks with a similar defense first type guy without the baggage. They probably have a guy like that already buried on the roster though knowing how well they draft.
I find it wild that anyone watched this series and their takeaway was "the depth was the problem". Yeah some of those guys were bad.... our 2nd star was terrible for almost the whole series... not just below expected... straight up bad.
Tatum: fewer points than regular season, shot 47/23/91 big jump in REB and AST though
Jaylen shot 42/16/67 for the series and had more turnovers than assists he even rebounded worse (amazing given how many bricks this team had).
role players:
White- REB and AST down a bit, but significantly better shooting/scoring than regular season 52/49/85
Smart: 43/36/76 is actually better than his regular season shooting, REB up a little, AST down (as were turnovers amazingly)
TL: minutes down (fouls, matchups) but rebounding was down a little, shot 72/0/62 so slightly worse than regular season
Horford: 40/28/50, other numbers same... here is your shooting collapse guy, he shoots mostly 3s and he missed a lot. (still talking a guy who was under 10ppg in the regular season)
Brogdon: 31/17/78.... the other shooting collapse guy, he was hurt though, that happens
Grant: 48/43/75... he played well on offense, rebounding down.
We lost this series for 3 reasons:
1. We shot poorly from 3 across the board (except Grant and White)
2. The Heat shot great
3. Our 2nd best player had the worst series of his career.
Now.. maybe none of that necessitates any changes, might not, sometimes stuff just goes sideways on you. But I don't think the takeaway in any way should be "the non-stars need to be replaced".
Tatum: fewer points than regular season, shot 47/23/91 big jump in REB and AST though
Jaylen shot 42/16/67 for the series and had more turnovers than assists he even rebounded worse (amazing given how many bricks this team had).
role players:
White- REB and AST down a bit, but significantly better shooting/scoring than regular season 52/49/85
Smart: 43/36/76 is actually better than his regular season shooting, REB up a little, AST down (as were turnovers amazingly)
TL: minutes down (fouls, matchups) but rebounding was down a little, shot 72/0/62 so slightly worse than regular season
Horford: 40/28/50, other numbers same... here is your shooting collapse guy, he shoots mostly 3s and he missed a lot. (still talking a guy who was under 10ppg in the regular season)
Brogdon: 31/17/78.... the other shooting collapse guy, he was hurt though, that happens
Grant: 48/43/75... he played well on offense, rebounding down.
We lost this series for 3 reasons:
1. We shot poorly from 3 across the board (except Grant and White)
2. The Heat shot great
3. Our 2nd best player had the worst series of his career.
Now.. maybe none of that necessitates any changes, might not, sometimes stuff just goes sideways on you. But I don't think the takeaway in any way should be "the non-stars need to be replaced".
He was awful. He had a negative asst/TO ratio for the series. His TS was 46%. He had a 91 Ortg (second lowest on the team to Brogdon) and a 119 Drtg. He's not going to suddenly learn how to dribble and pass at this point, and his weaknesses really come out when the lights are brightest. How many games against the Heat is he going to getting pickpocketed from behind, or throw thoughtless passes, or drive into three players who are all reaching for the ball because they know that he's not going to pass? Like, how has he not learned from any experience against this team? It drove me insane watching last night. And the defense is not a bonus, if it ever was, and he jogged around game 7 with the urgency of a server at Denny's.
They win this series if he's simply average. He's supposed to be a star, and he was outplayed in nearly every facet by Caleb Martin. I don't see how people can blame this on the 3-9 when those guys are supposed to be, well, role players and not stars who earn $300 million. They're supposed to be inconsistent. If they were consistent, they too would be stars earning hundreds of millions of dollars.
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Nope, the new CBA's intent is to disperse talent by forcing star-laden teams to deal either stars or the supporting cast. That's why I mentioned the Warriors. But the Bucks and Nuggets are absolutely going to be forced to choose as well (like Boston and Golden State they're likely past the second apron). Heck, the Lakers are probably going to be forced to choose between DAR and the rest of their roster.
What a weird playoffs for Jaylen. He was very good the last few Hawks games. He was a pretty consistent scorer against Philly with 6 games in the 23-25 range. He then has 4 sub 20 point games against Miami, the last of which killed this team.
Yeah, .500 teams aren't looking at players like Marcus. You'd have more luck trying to sell them White. But what those teams really want is JB. But they generally don't have a palatable package to get them. I guess OKC might be an exception as they could build something around Dort/Giddey/picks (and could you turn Dort/filler/picks into Bridges). But that's about it as fas as I can thin of off the top of my head.
The bolded is simply wrong. 100% completely and totally wrong. Jaylen was really, really good in these playoffs defensively (and I think chasing around Harden, Butler and smaller guards probably hurt him on offense a bit).
Here is every basket from Game 7. Tell me how many times Jaylen was scored on (outside of the last 3 minutes when he and the rest of the team clearly were done)? How many times did a shooter he left score?
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbuVTHUJWFk
I mean, I love the narratives, when they are based in facts, so show me?
I asked this a couple games ago, and I got like 2, maybe 3 examples from a game in which he played almost 40 minutes. I know this will come as a shock to some folks, but if a guy plays 40 minutes against the other team's best scorers, they will give up a few baskets. It doesn't mean they are getting roasted like the corpse of Kemba Walker.
Tatum gets credit for putting up huge rebounding numbers in the playoffs. Well, when you spend 7 games as the second big, guarding PJ Tucker in a corner, you're going to gobble up defensive rebounds. The guy guarding Harden or Maxey out on the perimeter isn't. Jaylen had 5 huge offensive boards in a 1 point game 6 win. Tatum has never, in his entire postseason career, had a game with 5 offensive boards, but yeah, Jaylen's out there loafing around.
Jaylen absolutely sucked on offense yesterday. Like a historically bad night. But this is what happens when you ask a guy to do something he can't do. They lost Brogdon, Tatum couldn't move, TL was in the locker room after playing 14 minutes. The defense doesn't have to worry about Smart shooting, or Al shooting, and Tatum is barely moving around, Brown had to try to put the game on his shoulders on offense, and he failed, spectacularly.
Malcolm Brogdon entered the game for Smart with 5:48 left in the 1st. The C's had a 9-6 lead. Grant came in for Tatum at the 4:11 mark, it was 11-8 C's. By the end of the quarter, it was 22-15 Miami, and both were still on the floor. Tatum replaced Brown at the end of the quarter.
1:19 into the 2nd, the lead had grown to 27-15, and finally, Joe pulled Brogdon. Jaylen shortly replaced Grant after that, and the lead had gone to 30-18 at that point.
The reality of last night is the C's were playing without a top 5 player in the world, without their best defensive big for most of the game, and without their 6th man of the year, and all of this went down in very short order. Guys, specifically Jaylen, were then put into places they shouldn't be and he failed at it, but let's not try to add cherries onto a shit sundae that are unnecessary. Jaylen's defense in these playoffs was not a problem.
I know I am screaming into the void here but Jaylen’s series wasn’t as bad as some people are suggesting.
Jaylen had 2 good games (5 and 6), 1 decent game(4), 2 bad games (1, because of the turnovers and 3, where i think everyone on the team fucking sucked) and 2 abhorrently bad games, including the worst game of his career (Game 2 and Game 7, where he shot a combined 15-46).
Other than Game 3, he was good to very good on defense (particularly on Butler). The turnovers and his 3 ball completely vanishing were the two things that really hurt.
And, for the umpteenth time, I am going to mention the hand injury and the arm (wrist/elbow/whatever it was) injury from the Bam fall that was exacerbated by the Kyle Lowry karate chop that got pissed him off in Game 6
EDIT:
@Cellar-Door mentioned how Joe making a few mistakes and it turned into a “narrative” and I pushed back on that. To me, the biggest “narrative” on this entire board is people continually talking about Jaylen’s defense as if he’s Michael Beasley mixed with Ricky Davis.
The guy was good on defense throughout the playoffs. He had a few lapses off ball but….guess what, everyone does that! Derrick White mistakenly passed off Caleb Martin twice last night that led to two wide open 3’s. He’s still an awesome defender. Marcus made mistakes…Tatum didn’t close out hard enough on Caleb Martin multiple times in the series. Shit happens.
Also, Simmons mentioned it on multiple podcasts and people have talked about it here...saying Caleb Martin was better than Jaylen and pointing out Jaylen specifically. Caleb Martin was the best goddamn player in the series. Better than Bam Adebayo by a fucking country mile (another almost All-NBA player who is supposed to be a top 25 player)
Jaylen had 2 good games (5 and 6), 1 decent game(4), 2 bad games (1, because of the turnovers and 3, where i think everyone on the team fucking sucked) and 2 abhorrently bad games, including the worst game of his career (Game 2 and Game 7, where he shot a combined 15-46).
Other than Game 3, he was good to very good on defense (particularly on Butler). The turnovers and his 3 ball completely vanishing were the two things that really hurt.
And, for the umpteenth time, I am going to mention the hand injury and the arm (wrist/elbow/whatever it was) injury from the Bam fall that was exacerbated by the Kyle Lowry karate chop that got pissed him off in Game 6
EDIT:
@Cellar-Door mentioned how Joe making a few mistakes and it turned into a “narrative” and I pushed back on that. To me, the biggest “narrative” on this entire board is people continually talking about Jaylen’s defense as if he’s Michael Beasley mixed with Ricky Davis.
The guy was good on defense throughout the playoffs. He had a few lapses off ball but….guess what, everyone does that! Derrick White mistakenly passed off Caleb Martin twice last night that led to two wide open 3’s. He’s still an awesome defender. Marcus made mistakes…Tatum didn’t close out hard enough on Caleb Martin multiple times in the series. Shit happens.
Also, Simmons mentioned it on multiple podcasts and people have talked about it here...saying Caleb Martin was better than Jaylen and pointing out Jaylen specifically. Caleb Martin was the best goddamn player in the series. Better than Bam Adebayo by a fucking country mile (another almost All-NBA player who is supposed to be a top 25 player)
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Kennard for Smart works if they want to upgrade the bench scoring/shooting, emphasize 3s, give White the PG keys & save $3MM/yr.
Kennard is as lights out a shooter as there is but he’s another guy who can’t stay on the court consistently.
Definitely true, but I'm not so sure the durability of Smart is going to hold up much longer either.
Kennard would likely come into this team as the 7th or 8th man and the 3rd guard behind White/Brogdon next year. I'm 10000% convinced that Marcus needs to go, mostly because of the fact he's standing in the way of White, and even when Marcus isn't playing well, coaches are afraid to bench him. For a PG that plays as much as he does, and can't shoot, he's not a very good playmaker at all. If he isn't making it all up on the other end of the floor, Marcus is just not a good fit for these guys.
Memphis could slap a heavily protected or lottery-protected future first...
BUT role players, like Marcus, just don't yield a whole bunch (and the reason I said keep him earlier)
Tyus and Kennard for Smart is a very interesting trade...I wonder if you add in Grant in an S&T if you could get a 2nd round pick as well (also would help even out the salaries).
Tyus is a great fit for this team. He never tries to do too much, doesnt make mistakes, and can nail a wide open 3. Kennard is like Hauser on steroids (which means he might not play on this team).
White-Brown-Tatum-Horford-TimeLord-Brogdon-Tyus-Kennard-BIG X is fairly interesting. I worry about the lack of size and Horford/TL insurance though
I would much rather move Brogdon but I don't think he has any sort of value
Tyus is a great fit for this team. He never tries to do too much, doesnt make mistakes, and can nail a wide open 3. Kennard is like Hauser on steroids (which means he might not play on this team).
White-Brown-Tatum-Horford-TimeLord-Brogdon-Tyus-Kennard-BIG X is fairly interesting. I worry about the lack of size and Horford/TL insurance though
I would much rather move Brogdon but I don't think he has any sort of value
No not really. Right now the Knicks and Cavs are the best set up teams to improve their teams but they don't have that sort of top line talent.
The NBA has pretty much leveled out the talent pool in the NBA with the designated player rule. The new CBA levels out the playing field even more so until the middle class of the NBA is wiped out.
There is not a lot of cap room out there. My guess would be Caleb Martin, Brooke Lopez, and/or James Harden are going soak up a lot of that available money.
Jones is the more valuable of the two. I would be surprised if Memphis trades both for a player of Smart's profile but maybe.
Jones has his own issues and will be unplayable in certain match ups, especially during the playoffs.
You are also giving up Smart who is under team control for the next three seasons for Jones who is an expiring and Kennard who has a club option. You are essentially accelerating the role player recycling around Tatum/Brown (assuming he isn't going anywhere).
Its not clear to me that this makes Boston better near or long-term.
If Marcus was a role player, I'd agree with you completely. But he's not, he's our starting point guard. He's started 177 of the last 180 regular season games he's played in, and 62 of the last 63 playoff games.
If Marcus was willing to accept a role player role, give up that starting spot to White, and become a 20 minute a game guy who comes in for defensive intensity, etc., I'd be fine with it. I just don't trust him or this coaching staff or his teammates to allow that to happen, so I think Brad needs to take the option away.
Forgive me for not remembering the user name but someone earlier brought up a DFS for Smart trade. I think that has to be the type of player that they target.
To me, the biggest issue with this team next year (and honestly was probably a bigger issue this year than people realized) is the lack of cover for Horford and Rob. I think we desperately need another big wing, to replace Grant who was just not good all year, and another big man.
Horford and Rob can't be counted on to play a majority of regular season games and then the playoffs.
To me, the biggest issue with this team next year (and honestly was probably a bigger issue this year than people realized) is the lack of cover for Horford and Rob. I think we desperately need another big wing, to replace Grant who was just not good all year, and another big man.
Horford and Rob can't be counted on to play a majority of regular season games and then the playoffs.
I've adopted "role player" as anyone outside the JAYs, which is how a lot of folks have been defining it recently
Jaylen had some good on-ball defense games, his overall defense has never been particularly good, and that was true this series as well (Tatum is usually very good and was pretty bad this series too both were responsible for a lot of the Martin and Robinson open 3s and backdoor cuts, ), but Jaylen's overall offense in this series was abysmal. he had maybe 1 good game?
Here are his offensive production efficiency nights:
Game 1: 22 points on 21 shots (1.05 PPFGA)
Game 2: 16 points on 23 shots (0.7 PPFGA)3
Game 3: 12 points on 17 shots (0.71 PPFGA)
Game 4: 17 points on 16 shots (1.06 PPFGA
Game 5: 21 points on 18 shots (1.17 PPFGA)
Game 6: 26 points on 16 shots (1.63 PPFGA)
Game 7: 19 points on 23 shots (0.83 PPFGA)
On the season he averaged about 1.29 points per FGA, which is almost exactly league average. (edit not league average player, rather what all teams combined get out their offense in terms of points per FGA).
So I'd say in terms of just shot efficiency he had one great game, one average game, 2 bad games and 3 just absolute tank jobs. Considering how little he brings in terms of playmaking with his negative assist to turnover ration in this series, I think it's fair to call it a terrible series. He might have been banged up some, but 3 of those are unsurvivably bad scoring for a team and 2 of the other 4 are bad.
I'm not going to scroll through an entire highlight package b/c I'm not a scout nor am I that guy who picks apart defensive failures, but 2:30 is exactly the kind of infuriating Jaylen play that I mentioned where he's jogging half speed as the opponent is in transition. That's not a unique occurrence game to game, and it's just as annoying as when we get on Tatum for screaming at the refs instead of getting back.
As Cellar-Door notes above, the rep of his overall defense "has never been particularly good." I'll trust people who know more than me (here's an example with film: https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/11/30/23460819/jaylen-brown-dilemma-boston-celtics-defense-offense-jayson-tatum-joe-mazzulla). Caveat for defensive stats, but his Drtg is league average. He has some highs - like the Philly series - because he's big and athletic, but that's what makes it so frustrating. He COULD be really incredible, and instead he's just kind of inconsistent.
He wants a $300 million extension. It's like you're saying "he's not that good, but we shouldn't expect him to be", which is not typically how teams or fans think of max players. They're supposed to show up in the playoffs and not actively contribute to an embarrassing game 7 loss. He's not the little engine that could. He's a second team all-nba player.
I get that you really like him, and he's a top 25/top 30 player no doubt, but committing 40% of the cap to him puts a ceiling on the Celtics. Why would we expect next year's playoffs to be any different once teams realize he can't dribble or distribute?
The Celtics need a versatile big, which is no small task. It's just time to move on from Timelord. Love the dude, but he's too one dimensional. Just not enough versatility there. Also, Brown. He can go dribble the ball off his foot somewhere else. I have long wanted to believe that Brown is just as good as Tatum, but the reality is, it's not close. And if Brown/Tatum have not won a title together by now, it's not gonna happen.
Unfortunately, the C's don't have any wiggle room with the cap, right? Brad is going to have get creative this offseason. This team doesnt need an overhaul, but it needs changes.
Unfortunately, the C's don't have any wiggle room with the cap, right? Brad is going to have get creative this offseason. This team doesnt need an overhaul, but it needs changes.
I was trying to work through a Murray-Okongwu-pick for Jaylen deal with smart going elsewhere for a cost controlled asset.
maybe?
Problem with Atlanta is the deals that make the most sense involve Murray, but recreating the Spurs backcourt that struggled with big guards probably is a bad move, and I'd rather have White on his deal if I'm choosing between the two.
A Hawks deal gets weird fast, but year as @PedroKsBambino noted it's probably built around Murray/Okongwu/plus, but... I don't think Murray works here even with Smart going elsewhere, I think Murray needs to be going out.
Weren't people in this forum ripping Murray as an empty stats guy during/after the Hawks series? Add in the attitude -- hip-checking and "verbally abusing" a ref at the end of a playoff game and getting suspended as a result -- and I want nothing to do with the guy. There's a reason Atlanta was a .500 team all season long, and it's not all Trae.