The Celtics Offseason

[mcpickl]

This is silly...going over once is pretty bad, going over twice in a 4 year period is quite bad, so it is very important for team building purposes to be selective on when you go over. Being over the 2nd apron twice make sure it very difficult to add talent.

This idea of.. "oh sign your 9th man to 4\53 who cares if you go over once.... Uh, this team is going over next year, it's going over in the following one. Locking the roster for Grant Williams to be your 4th best PF is just bad roster management

It is silly... to think you're not allowed to trade Grant Williams next year if you need to.

Gonna go out on a very shaky limb and guess Grant Williams will have more value than a 5M dollar MLE will that you might get for merely being a first apron team.

 

[RorschachsMask]

Celtics are a really analytics heavy organization, and Grant consistently grades out poorly across the board.

I love Grant, but he’s not someone you go over the apron for, IMO.

 

[mcpickl]

Celtics are a really analytics heavy organization, and Grant consistently grades out poorly across the board.

I love Grant, but he’s not someone you go over the apron for, IMO.

But, this is my point.

Why do you care about the apron?

You, a fan. Not Wyc, you.

Would you be that upset that they can't have a 5M MLE player next year, or they wouldn't be eligible to trade their first round pick in 2031?

Why should we care so much?

 

[Cellar-Door]

It is silly... to think you're not allowed to trade Grant Williams next year if you need to.

Gonna go out on a very shaky limb and guess Grant Williams will have more value than a 5M dollar MLE will that you might get for merely being a first apron team.

Trade him for what? Has to be either a straight salary dump or a near exact salary match. And you've started the pick penalties a year early. Not matching Grant had nothing to do with the tax MLE (they likely won't be using it. It was about maximizing ability to make moves in the next 12 months and delaying repeater penalties at least a year

Edit- I think people are wildly underestimating how hard it is to do anything when you are limited to perfect match, can't do most non-simultaneous match and can't add talent via exceptions, all while your draft picks are losing value down the line. Starting that before you need to should be reserved for key player in a championship run (stars or key starters).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Yup—-the commentary here about how they had to dump Grant speaks to this. I get there’s complexity but a lot of folks here and in the media overplayed second apron, imo

Did we really "had to" dump Grant....or like many NBA-ready players we've drafted to get value out of their rookie deal but didn't want to pay afterwards? Olynyk, Sullinger, etc etc

 

[Cellar-Door]

Did we really "had to" dump Grant....or like many NBA-ready players we've drafted to get value out of their rookie deal but didn't want to pay afterwards? Olynyk, Sullinger, etc etc

Yeah they didn't dump him, they prioritized flexibility and minor draft assets over a fringe rotation player.

 

[mcpickl]

Trade him for what? Has to be either a straight salary dump or a near exact salary match. And you've started the pick penalties a year early. Not matching Grant had nothing to do with the tax MLE (they likely won't be using it. It was about maximizing ability to make moves in the next 12 months and delaying repeater penalties at least a year

Trade him into someones cap space next year if needed. Or Brogdon. Or Al. Or whoever you think you need to move next summer if you decide you need to stay under the deadly second apron. Or even better, don't worry about the second apron and go try to win a title while Tatum and Brown are healthy and in their prime. Having another year with an extra good player on the roster when you're a contender, and gaining an extra year of information on your players that could become lesser players due to age/injury, seems like it might be useful.

I'm not talking about them using the tax MLE this year for not matching on Grant. I'm talking about it being one of the two biggest penalties (outside of dear Wycs' wallet being emptier) going forward as a second apron team.

Again, I think it's silly to worry about delaying repeater penalties a year, just like I thought it was silly to delay the repeater tax that everyone was worried about in the previous CBA, because the penalties aren't nearly severe enough to weaken your current contender.

I mean, if you asked a Celtic fan in this way...would you be willing to possibly have your first round pick in 2031 drop to the end of the round to make your team stronger this year, do you think most fans would say no?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Trade him into someones cap space next year if needed. Or Brogdon. Or Al. Or whoever you think you need to move next summer if you decide you need to stay under the deadly second apron. Or even better, don't worry about the second apron and go try to win a title while Tatum and Brown are healthy and in their prime. Having another year with an extra good player on the roster when you're a contender, and gaining an extra year of information on your players that could become lesser players due to age/injury, seems like it might be useful.

I'm not talking about them using the tax MLE this year for not matching on Grant. I'm talking about it being one of the two biggest penalties (outside of dear Wycs' wallet being emptier) going forward as a second apron team.

Again, I think it's silly to worry about delaying repeater penalties a year, just like I thought it was silly to delay the repeater tax that everyone was worried about in the previous CBA, because the penalties aren't nearly severe enough to weaken your current contender.

I mean, if you asked a Celtic fan in this way...would you be willing to possibly have your first round pick in 2031 drop to the end of the round to make your team stronger this year, do you think most fans would say no?

That's not what all the penalties are a more accurate question would be.... Would you rather have a better 4th power forward, or be able to make trades during the season? The match and non-simultaneous trade exceptions are huge detriments

There is a reason that the writers who understand the CBA and cap are talking about trade and roster flexibility about Grant and the ones who don't are saying "just pay him then dump him next year"

 

[mcpickl]

That's not what all the penalties are a more accurate question would be.... Would you rather have a better 4th power forward, or be able to make trades during the season? The match and non-simultaneous trade exceptions are huge detriments

There is a reason that the writers who understand the CBA and cap are talking about trade and roster flexibility about Grant and the ones who don't are saying "just pay him then dump him next year"

Nah.

Because you're still allowed to make trades during the season if you kept Grant.

And I'm not saying "just pay him then dump him next year". I'm saying just pay him, keep the good player, keep the salary slot available, and if you feel the need to dodge the scary second apron next year you can trade him then. Or you can trade someone else. Or you can just not be scared of the second apron next year. There's some flexibility in those options too.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Nah.

Because you're still allowed to make trades during the season if you kept Grant.

And I'm not saying "just pay him then dump him next year". I'm saying just pay him, keep the good player, keep the salary slot available, and if you feel the need to dodge the scary second apron next year you can trade him then. Or you can trade someone else. Or you can just not be scared of the second apron next year. There's some flexibility in those options too.

You're allowed to make them but with massive restrictions that make it very very difficult.
Not sure there is much more to say here since you've made it clear that you have no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

 

[mcpickl]

You're allowed to make them but with massive restrictions that make it very very difficult.
Not sure there is much more to say here since you've made it clear that you have no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

Those "massive" restrictions don't start until next season, so maybe it's you that has made it clear that you have no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

I feel like I spend plenty of time on the CBA, more than most of the posters here, and to throw this at me is bullshit.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Those "massive" restrictions don't start until next season, so maybe it's you that has made it clear that you have no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

I feel like I spend plenty of time on the CBA, more than most of the posters here, and to throw this at me is bullshit.

The picks come in 2024, the aggregated TPE rule is now, it's on page 191, I believe the 100% match is 2023 as well, can't look it up but Pincus and I believe Smith both wrote about it and Marks mentioned it on a pod, I doubt all 3 got that wrong.

Edit I will say I was overly harsh, mostly just annoyed at everyone oversimplifying the penalties because the Celtics moved on from a guy they massively upgraded via trade

 

[mcpickl]

The picks come in 2024, the aggregated TPE rule is now, it's on page 191, I believe the 100% match is 2023 as well, can't look it up but Pincus and I believe Smith both wrote about it and Marks mentioned it on a pod, I doubt all 3 got that wrong.

You're welcome to check it out from the NBA if you wish.

That's what I did, a guy who apparently has no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

Microsoft Word - CBA Media Summary 2023 as of 6-28-23 (nba.com)

 

[Cellar-Door]

You're welcome to check it out from the NBA if you wish.

That's what I did, a guy who apparently has no interest in what the CBA says or how NBA trades are structured.

Microsoft Word - CBA Media Summary 2023 as of 6-28-23 (nba.com)

I apologize, I (and apparently at least Pincus) missed a reference back to an earlier section defining tax years. You are correct, the match comes in 2024, so it wouldn't effect a trade now, just in the off-season. Changes the calculations some. I would still say better to have the flexibility and picks, but it's a more nuanced discussion. Makes me wonder if they are leaving their Jaylen trade next year options open.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The picks come in 2024, the aggregated TPE rule is now, it's on page 191, I believe the 100% match is 2023 as well, can't look it up but Pincus and I believe Smith both wrote about it and Marks mentioned it on a pod, I doubt all 3 got that wrong.

Edit I will say I was overly harsh, mostly just annoyed at everyone oversimplifying the penalties because the Celtics moved on from a guy they massively upgraded via trade

Here's the CBA: https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2023/06/2023-NBA-Collective-Bargaining-Agreement.pdf.

I don't have the energy right now to parse through the document - maybe someone else does - but it looks like on page 191, a clause (5) says that the table transactions don't apply during 2023-24. Will freely admit that I might be missing something.

edit: late to the party again.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

That's not what all the penalties are a more accurate question would be.... Would you rather have a better 4th power forward, or be able to make trades during the season? The match and non-simultaneous trade exceptions are huge detriments

There is a reason that the writers who understand the CBA and cap are talking about trade and roster flexibility about Grant and the ones who don't are saying "just pay him then dump him next year"

they have pretty limited ability to make trades anyway. Plenty of us who understand the cap well have been on both sides of the deal—Zach Lowe most recently. It may be right call to stay under, but as I’ve noted before there’s a pretty good chance no one they can acquire with the assets/options eliminated by second apron is as impactful as Grant Williams. That you don’t see complexity is fine, but don’t denigrate those who do.

 

[benhogan]

Nothing wrong with healthy debate. Everyone should appreciate the work you guys do (along with Hob & others) on the CAP. @mcpickl has gone out of his way numerous times over the years to update the Cellar on the CAP and its effects on the Celtics

Your just not going to find the details folks put into it anywhere else. Kudos gents.

A few random thoughts as far as Grant is concerned
1. I'm kind of looking forward to seeing Sam Hauser playing some of those Grants' minutes. I wouldn't be shocked if he put some work into his body and came back a little stronger
2. Grant will be a good fit in Dallas with Kyrie/Luka, they will be a fun watch
3. CJM will really have to shrink-wrap TL/Al/Zingus, Grant would have helped with that all season. but IF they get them to the playoffs healthy, Grant would have struggled to get minutes (that's a big IF). If we lose any of them for the playoffs we'll regret not having Grant around.
4. I thought Grant's defense took a dip last season. Felt like BIGs just figured out his schtick & easily shot over him. Then again he was battling injuries (along with Marcus) and that could easily have been the reason.
5. It's not in my nature to yield to authority, but Brad/Zarren have been spectacular in regard to the trade market for 2 straight years now. My guess is they are cooking up something between now & the trade deadline with all the draft picks. I trust they want the flexibility to make that happen. People forget how messy things were when they took over, they trimmed the fat & have added high-end role players at every turn. Also, expect Wyc has greenlit them to spend "whatever it takes for 18"

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I’ve noted the question before, but you do wonder if the defensive scheme is going to change. Playing a lot of zone in summer league is likely mostly about those players not really having time together…but it is interesting to ponder if it could be more.

Trading Smart and Grant makes the Celtics a lot less switch-friendly defensively, as does adding KP. Add that up and it makes you wonder if that’s a change coming, and also part of their valuation of all three players: Smart and Grant both lose some of their defensive value if you’re doing more zone or traditional drop.

 

[benhogan]

I’ve noted the question before, but you do wonder if the defensive scheme is going to change. Playing a lot of zone in summer league is likely mostly about those players not really having time together…but it is interesting to ponder if it could be more.

Trading Smart and Grant makes the Celtics a lot less switch-friendly defensively, as does adding KP. Add that up and it makes you wonder if that’s a change coming, and also part of their valuation of all three players: Smart and Grant both lose some of their defensive value if you’re doing more zone or traditional drop.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't experiment with it every game & see which Celtic players excel in it. Brad has mentioned wanting to play "longer". A well-organized zone that moves in unison should lead to "longer" players jumping the passing lanes when traps occur. It's also pretty easy to scout opposing players/teams that don't like playing against the zone & deploying situationally.

There were a lot of zone principles in IME's switchy D last season.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I’ve noted the question before, but you do wonder if the defensive scheme is going to change. Playing a lot of zone in summer league is likely mostly about those players not really having time together…but it is interesting to ponder if it could be more.

Trading Smart and Grant makes the Celtics a lot less switch-friendly defensively, as does adding KP. Add that up and it makes you wonder if that’s a change coming, and also part of their valuation of all three players: Smart and Grant both lose some of their defensive value if you’re doing more zone or traditional drop.

I don't believe any SL strategy with players who won't be Celtics next season, with 1-2 exceptions, indicates anything of what Mazzulla is thinking next year with his team. There is a reason NBA teams use very little zone against NBA offenses....it is fairly easy to destroy.

 

[Just a bit outside]

I think they will certainly be playing zone and drop coverage. It will be interesting to see if they invert the wings and guards like they are doing in summer league with Walsh up top and Davidson on a wing. Tatum and Brown at the top of the zone would be menacing.

Edit: I agree that summer league may not mean anything but they played zero zone last year in summer league so it is a change.

 

[benhogan]

I don't believe any SL strategy with players who won't be Celtics next season, with 1-2 exceptions, indicates anything of what Mazzulla is thinking next year with his team. There is a reason NBA teams use very little zone against NBA offenses....it is fairly easy to destroy.

You're right Summer League means absolutely nothing

As far as the Zone, its situational, it needs players that know what they are doing and in small doses it can be effective

the Heat — even amid the regular-season struggles that nearly kept them out of the playoffs — used their zone to great effect, limiting opponents to 0.937 points per possession. By comparison, opponents averaged 1.009 points per possession against their man-to-man defense.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/sports/basketball/miami-heat-zone-defense.html#:~:text=More important, the Heat — even,man-to-man defense.

 

[DavidTai]

View: https://twitter.com/AdamHimmelsbach/status/1680339499853946881?s=20

 

[Koufax]

That's good. He has been of the few decent Celtics during this summer league.

 

[128]

The dog days of summer appear to have started early this year. August is usually a time with little C's news, but there hasn't been much to talk about so far since the Porzingis trade last month.

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

The dog days of summer appear to have started early this year. August is usually a time with little C's news, but there hasn't been much to talk about so far since the Porzingis trade last month.

There was Summer League, where Jordan Walsh performed exceedingly well and is looking like the steal of the draft. That was a nice development.

 

[128]

There was Summer League, where Jordan Walsh performed exceedingly well and is looking like the steal of the draft. That was a nice development.

No doubt, but the C's summer league team as a whole kind of sucked, so those games weren't much fun to watch, aside from Walsh and Scrubb.

 

[slamminsammya]

No doubt, but the C's summer league team as a whole kind of sucked, so those games weren't much fun to watch, aside from Walsh and Scrubb.

I didn't know anyone watches the games as if they were actual competitive games

 

[FireChief]

I didn't know anyone watches the games as if they were actual competitive games

I don't believe anyone does...but a talent level above a Rock and Jock game would have been a little easier to watch as well

 

[slamminsammya]

I don't believe anyone does...but a talent level above a Rock and Jock game would have been a little easier to watch as well

I was there for a few days. They have the small gym which is like a very small high school gym, and then the big one which is a full on stadium.

Watching a game in the small gym feels like watching an extremely high level pickup game in a positive and impressive way. In the big stadium the same game looks like a gross bastardization of the NBA and is harder to watch both literally and spiritually.

 

[chilidawg]

I don't believe anyone does...but a talent level above a Rock and Jock game would have been a little easier to watch as well

The talent level, certainly among the recent draftees, is there. The structure overall may be lacking. I enjoyed seeing some young potential C's playing, Walsh in particular.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I was there for a few days. They have the small gym which is like a very small high school gym, and then the big one which is a full on stadium.

Watching a game in the small gym feels like watching an extremely high level pickup game in a positive and impressive way. In the big stadium the same game looks like a gross bastardization of the NBA and is harder to watch both literally and spiritually.

Perfectly said. There is rarely a reason to leave the intimacy of the 2400-seat Cox Pavillion and their bleacher seating. To me, that has always been what a summer league has always been.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I don't believe anyone does...but a talent level above a Rock and Jock game would have been a little easier to watch as well

There were sequences that resembled Coolio trying to beat Michael Rappaport off the dribble for sure. I tweeted yesterday calling this the end to the silly season when fans get excited about their 14th man dropping 20 on someones non-guaranteed training camp invite.

 

[Koufax]

You're giving me flashbacks of seeing the summer league at UMass Boston. That was fun!

 

[ugmo33]

Trade him for what? Has to be either a straight salary dump or a near exact salary match. And you've started the pick penalties a year early. Not matching Grant had nothing to do with the tax MLE (they likely won't be using it. It was about maximizing ability to make moves in the next 12 months and delaying repeater penalties at least a year

Edit- I think people are wildly underestimating how hard it is to do anything when you are limited to perfect match, can't do most non-simultaneous match and can't add talent via exceptions, all while your draft picks are losing value down the line. Starting that before you need to should be reserved for key player in a championship run (stars or key starters).

One question I have about this is whether it is only the 2nd apron team that is prohibited from aggregating? Like if the Cs had signed Grant, and gone over, would an under-the-apron team have been able to combine players to match his salary?

 

[128]

Wrong thread.

 

[the moops]

One question I have about this is whether it is only the 2nd apron team that is prohibited from aggregating? Like if the Cs had signed Grant, and gone over, would an under-the-apron team have been able to combine players to match his salary?

It does seem to read that only the 2nd apron team has that restriction. Thus if trading with a non apron team they could receive back multiple players

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1681701982208417793?s=20

 

[chilidawg]

View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1681701982208417793?s=20

Porzingis on that list doesn't surprise me as much as Tatum being 2nd. Should have utilized that more last season.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1681701982208417793?s=20

He actually was good the season prior too but looking at the rest of the data set for his career, this isn't typical and if he reverts back to his career norms it wouldn't be a total shock. It will be interesting to see how he performs in a different scheme and competitive environment.

 

[BaseballJones]

View: https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/1681701982208417793?s=20

Sacramento led the league in points per possession at 1.18. Using Tatum and Porzingis more in the post this year is a good strategy that I hope Boston employs a lot more.

Of course, I'm old school, and love post play anyway but still....

 

[Devizier]

Non-bigs dominating the post probably has more to do with hunting matchups than anything else (there’s skill in that, obviously).

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1682024758223962113?s=20

"[Jayson Tatum is] mad at Rob when he isn't taking shots," said Miller. "And he is mad at Rob -- not mad, but holding him accountable -- when he isn't taking shots and when he isn't being a threat or looking at the goal.

" ... When Rob gets rebounds and throws it out to [Tatum or Jaylen Brown] to shoot it, I could tell you 12 other superstars in the NBA that would be so happy because they're trying to get their shot attempts up. But Jayson Tatum, and I don't know him personally, but just in the sense of him saying, 'Rob, we need you to shoot that, we need you,' -- man, I thought that was amazing for Rob's confidence moving forward.

"It's basically giving him the nod like, 'Hey, it’s OK that you're taking those shots. It's OK that you're taking those midrange (shots) because we need you to take them.’ Because, like I said, it'll open up other opportunities for [Tatum and Brown]."

 

[djbayko]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1682024758223962113?s=20

I like this. He rarely shoots, but when he does, he seems to have a nice touch.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

View: https://twitter.com/ChrisForsberg_/status/1682024758223962113?s=20

Article says something about twitter denizens coming out to criticize TL's shooting mechanics. I don't have an account there; can anyone tell me what they were criticizing? Just curious.

TIA.

 

[Euclis20]

Article says something about twitter denizens coming out to criticize TL's shooting mechanics. I don't have an account there; can anyone tell me what they were criticizing? Just curious.

TIA.

Yeah I'm not seeing the issue there.

I don't particularly like seeing him spotting up behind the 3 point line - unless he ends up shooting like Lopez or Horford (and based on his FT% there's little evidence that that's possible), it's a net negative having him hanging out behind the 3 point line. His vertical spacing and offensive rebounding would suffer, and if teams don't respect his 3 point shot (I see his absolute ceiling as a 3 point shooter being something like Daniel Theis, a guy who at his best would hit like 35% of wide open 3s), it won't open up driving or cutting lanes for his teammates. What's the point?

I can definitely see the utility in further developing his pick and pop free throw line level jumper, that keeps him close enough to the basket to still take advantage of his athleticism and passing ability.

 

[chilidawg]

Yeah I'm not seeing the issue there.

I don't particularly like seeing him spotting up behind the 3 point line - unless he ends up shooting like Lopez or Horford (and based on his FT% there's little evidence that that's possible), it's a net negative having him hanging out behind the 3 point line. His vertical spacing and offensive rebounding would suffer, and if teams don't respect his 3 point shot (I see his absolute ceiling as a 3 point shooter being something like Daniel Theis, a guy who at his best would hit like 35% of wide open 3s), it won't open up driving or cutting lanes for his teammates. What's the point?

I can definitely see the utility in further developing his pick and pop free throw line level jumper, that keeps him close enough to the basket to still take advantage of his athleticism and passing ability.

The thing I see is that the release is slow, which doesn't matter much because 1. It's really high and 2. he's really only going to shoot when they're not guarding him.

 

[JakeRae]

The thing I see is that the release is slow, which doesn't matter much because 1. It's really high and 2. he's really only going to shoot when they're not guarding him.

Plus 3, we only want him shooting when he’s not being guarded. The goal isn’t for Timelord to jack up a ton of shots, it’s for teams to need to defend him at the elbow.

 

[bakahump]

I ask this as a (whats less then) Novice when it come BB Xs and Os.

Is there a way to have Pick and roll and yet have TL close enough to dribble and explode to the rim for a dunk?

 

[slamminsammya]

Plus 3, we only want him shooting when he’s not being guarded. The goal isn’t for Timelord to jack up a ton of shots, it’s for teams to need to defend him at the elbow.

People have been saying this for a while and I still don't get it. Name a big man in 2023 who is taking elbow jumpers as the roll man. Defenses will welcome that shot even if he gets pretty good at it, relative to what other players shoot in mid range.