The Celtics Offseason

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,053
New York, NY
People have been saying this for a while and I still don't get it. Name a big man in 2023 who is taking elbow jumpers as the roll man. Defenses will welcome that shot even if he gets pretty good at it, relative to what other players shoot in mid range.
Only two types of players get semi-regular opportunities to shoot uncontested set shots from the foul line extended: players who cannot shoot and those who don’t. So, the answer is no one because if you can shoot that shot ok, you don’t get it. I think Timelord can shoot that shot at a respectable rate (keeping in mind it is uncontested, that’s probably somewhere in the vicinity of 55%). Like, if defenses regularly let Embiid, Horford, or Jokic take that shot, as a few examples, they absolutely would do so and would destroy defenses doing it. Timelord isn’t those guys, but he’s also not Ben Wallace. He’s not a good shooter, but he’s not terrible. He is an extremely unwilling shooter though, which lets teams give concede that shot to him and harms the offense. (If you think he would shoot below 50% on uncontested elbow jumpers, which is a defensible view, he should keep passing on the shot since you are right that defenses will just keep conceding it and feel good about doing so.).

As a note, bigs who can shoot don’t semi trail and stop at the foul line if the ball handler is committed to driving, they pop to the three. So this shot opportunity only exists for the non-shooting bigs who don’t want it. Timelord is in that category, but he’s a better shooter than his peers in that category, or at least many of us think he is.
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
8,494
San Francisco
Only two types of players get semi-regular opportunities to shoot uncontested set shots from the foul line extended: players who cannot shoot and those who don’t. So, the answer is no one because if you can shoot that shot ok, you don’t get it. I think Timelord can shoot that shot at a respectable rate (keeping in mind it is uncontested, that’s probably somewhere in the vicinity of 55%). Like, if defenses regularly let Embiid, Horford, or Jokic take that shot, as a few examples, they absolutely would do so and would destroy defenses doing it. Timelord isn’t those guys, but he’s also not Ben Wallace. He’s not a good shooter, but he’s not terrible. He is an extremely unwilling shooter though, which lets teams give concede that shot to him and harms the offense. (If you think he would shoot below 50% on uncontested elbow jumpers, which is a defensible view, he should keep passing on the shot since you are right that defenses will just keep conceding it and feel good about doing so.).

As a note, bigs who can shoot don’t semi trail and stop at the foul line if the ball handler is committed to driving, they pop to the three. So this shot opportunity only exists for the non-shooting bigs who don’t want it. Timelord is in that category, but he’s a better shooter than his peers in that category, or at least many of us think he is.
Right, so the argument is if he's proficient then he's adding stretch to the defense with the threat. But I personally feel the impact is pretty marginal since he already has a big stretch impact from his lob threat and usually you'd be exchanging one type of stretch for the other.

I'd rather just have him practicing six feet and in exclusively, or else also shooting threes.
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,337
Cultural hub of the universe
Right, so the argument is if he's proficient then he's adding stretch to the defense with the threat. But I personally feel the impact is pretty marginal since he already has a big stretch impact from his lob threat and usually you'd be exchanging one type of stretch for the other.
One more arrow in the quiver. If they're guarding him at the FT line there's more room underneath, and he's a good passer (which was very underutilized last year). It's not going to transform the offense, but it's a marginal improvement and those matter.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
32,606
Right, so the argument is if he's proficient then he's adding stretch to the defense with the threat. But I personally feel the impact is pretty marginal since he already has a big stretch impact from his lob threat and usually you'd be exchanging one type of stretch for the other.

I'd rather just have him practicing six feet and in exclusively, or else also shooting threes.
I would guess it's a buildup. you work on FTs and elbow jumpers, then you extend the range to 3. Just going straight to 3s doesn't always work, but you build confidence in the shot, in the process, then you add the difficulty of range.

Also... what is he practicing inside 6 feet.... jumping? He's not getting post-ups.

In terms of spacing... guys tend to contest shots on instinct, and being a threat to shoot from 15 feet usually helps passing lanes for a guy if he's a willing passer.

Rob needs to expand his game if he wants to be a closing player, because right now good chance Porzingis is playing the roaming rim protector role in crunch time, with Horford
 

slamminsammya

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
8,494
San Francisco
I would guess it's a buildup. you work on FTs and elbow jumpers, then you extend the range to 3. Just going straight to 3s doesn't always work, but you build confidence in the shot, in the process, then you add the difficulty of range.

Also... what is he practicing inside 6 feet.... jumping? He's not getting post-ups.

In terms of spacing... guys tend to contest shots on instinct, and being a threat to shoot from 15 feet usually helps passing lanes for a guy if he's a willing passer.

Rob needs to expand his game if he wants to be a closing player, because right now good chance Porzingis is playing the roaming rim protector role in crunch time, with Horford
He could use a floater within six feet I think. Especially for a lot of those rebounds where he's close but not dunk or layup close where he usually is immediately passing out.
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,483
Probably not the right thread for this, but, I happened upon this great SI article from 1974 about John Havlicek, and figured it was worth a read by Celtics fans in this slow NBA news period. For those too young to have seen him, Hondo was the quintessential all around basketball great. He was one of my favorites when I was a young fan, and IMO is underrated as to his ranking as an all time great.

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1974/10/28/the-green-running-machine
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,104
Only two types of players get semi-regular opportunities to shoot uncontested set shots from the foul line extended: players who cannot shoot and those who don’t. So, the answer is no one because if you can shoot that shot ok, you don’t get it. I think Timelord can shoot that shot at a respectable rate (keeping in mind it is uncontested, that’s probably somewhere in the vicinity of 55%). Like, if defenses regularly let Embiid, Horford, or Jokic take that shot, as a few examples, they absolutely would do so and would destroy defenses doing it. Timelord isn’t those guys, but he’s also not Ben Wallace. He’s not a good shooter, but he’s not terrible. He is an extremely unwilling shooter though, which lets teams give concede that shot to him and harms the offense. (If you think he would shoot below 50% on uncontested elbow jumpers, which is a defensible view, he should keep passing on the shot since you are right that defenses will just keep conceding it and feel good about doing so.).

As a note, bigs who can shoot don’t semi trail and stop at the foul line if the ball handler is committed to driving, they pop to the three. So this shot opportunity only exists for the non-shooting bigs who don’t want it. Timelord is in that category, but he’s a better shooter than his peers in that category, or at least many of us think he is.
Right: if you can shoot 65% on uncontested elbow jumpers, you never get to do that in practice, because teams contest. However, because they're contesting, you open up more space on the floor. At that point, it's fine if you make 40% of them or whatever (late shot clock, not taking many), because of the benefits on the 95% of possessions per game where you get the ball there and don't shoot a contested jumper, but do open up space for teammates to work in.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
9,556
Probably not the right thread for this, but, I happened upon this great SI article from 1974 about John Havlicek, and figured it was worth a read by Celtics fans in this slow NBA news period. For those too young to have seen him, Hondo was the quintessential all around basketball great. He was one of my favorites when I was a young fan, and IMO is underrated as to his ranking as an all time great.

https://vault.si.com/.amp/vault/1974/10/28/the-green-running-machine
Fantastic read on an all-time great. Thanks for posting.
 

FireChief

lurker
Jul 9, 2023
23
Right: if you can shoot 65% on uncontested elbow jumpers, you never get to do that in practice, because teams contest. However, because they're contesting, you open up more space on the floor. At that point, it's fine if you make 40% of them or whatever (late shot clock, not taking many), because of the benefits on the 95% of possessions per game where you get the ball there and don't shoot a contested jumper, but do open up space for teammates to work in.
Not to mention that having all of your bigs as a credible shooting threat from the high post can only be beneficial when Spo decides to toss out that zone
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
10,729
around the way
Monaco has a team, love it. Would be awesome for Kemba if he likes fine cuisine, gambling, and auto racing. I think that I'd rather play there than Serbia.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,215
Monaco has a team, love it. Would be awesome for Kemba if he likes fine cuisine, gambling, and auto racing. I think that I'd rather play there than Serbia.
Yeah, dude is getting paid to take an extended vacation. Good for Kemba.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
7,195
Imaginationland
Good for him, but it just makes me think of IT. He's a year older than Kemba and still thinks he's getting back to the NBA, despite no one signing him last year and playing just 25 total games in 2021 and 2022. It's past time for him to give up his NBA dream and get some money playing abroad while he still can. Kemba got his big deal, IT never did (Kemba's career earnings are more than 4x greater than IT).
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
46,215
Obviously Monaco is a great place to play and live, but competition in the Euroleague is pretty intense. I'm not sure I would characterize this as a vacation.
It’s still a step below the NBA and the guy has made $200M in his career. He doesn’t need this so it’s pretty low stakes for him. But his knee is so messed up that I wouldn’t be surprised if he cuts this season short.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,433
Right, so the argument is if he's proficient then he's adding stretch to the defense with the threat. But I personally feel the impact is pretty marginal since he already has a big stretch impact from his lob threat and usually you'd be exchanging one type of stretch for the other.

I'd rather just have him practicing six feet and in exclusively, or else also shooting threes.
The big advantage if Rob was more willing, and able, to make shots around the free throw circle isn't as a roll man. It's against zone.

If Rob could make that shot with regularity, with his size and passing ability, you couldn't get away with playing zone against the Celtics.

I don't ever want Rob shooting threes as long as he's this athletic. He's too valuable inside the arc.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
2,986
It’s still a step below the NBA and the guy has made $200M in his career. He doesn’t need this so it’s pretty low stakes for him. But his knee is so messed up that I wouldn’t be surprised if he cuts this season short.
Unless I'm missing something, hell of a difference going from 82 NBA games to 34 Euroleague games. Not to mention a max of 7 playoff games, not 28.
 

connan2me

lurker
Jan 6, 2016
3
I think the green need an upcoming pg and looking at the Pistons Killian Hayes he might be the perfect guy to compliment White. He is a very good defender and facilitator, he hasn't shot the three well but his high free throw pct, so it might get better. Detroit also has more than enough point guard types, and drafted another with the Celtics pick. The Pistons do lack a real high level scorer but Cunningham will probably become that man soon. A Brogdon type might interest them as he is more of a shooting guard and if they add some picks it might be enticing. Detroit roster is surprisingly deep and seemingly not very cohesive. Might take a third team but I they have so many point guards that I think Hayes might be a great get. If you look further at their roster and add a Bogdanovic, Hayes, Stewart pics for Brogdon, Williams, Hauser, draft picks.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
18,678
Santa Monica
Detroit roster is surprisingly deep and seemingly not very cohesive. Might take a third team but I they have so many point guards that I think Hayes might be a great get. If you look further at their roster and add a Bogdanovic, Hayes, Stewart pics for Brogdon, Williams, Hauser, draft picks.
I love fake trade ideas, and want to encourage discussion

BUT this is a real head-scratcher.

1. Killian Hayes has been gawd awful, the Celtics aren't in the business of developing players like him.
2. Beef Stew just got completely overpaid for what he does
3. Bogdanovich is a talented offensive player, but probably a similar player as Malcolm on this Celtic team
4. Hauser contract is great value
5. TimeLords contract is very good value for Boston
6. Brad won't use the Celtic's draft stock to save the Pistons from themselves
 

TripleOT

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2007
7,483
I think the green need an upcoming pg and looking at the Pistons Killian Hayes he might be the perfect guy to compliment White. He is a very good defender and facilitator, he hasn't shot the three well but his high free throw pct, so it might get better. Detroit also has more than enough point guard types, and drafted another with the Celtics pick. The Pistons do lack a real high level scorer but Cunningham will probably become that man soon. A Brogdon type might interest them as he is more of a shooting guard and if they add some picks it might be enticing. Detroit roster is surprisingly deep and seemingly not very cohesive. Might take a third team but I they have so many point guards that I think Hayes might be a great get. If you look further at their roster and add a Bogdanovic, Hayes, Stewart pics for Brogdon, Williams, Hauser, draft picks.
Replacing Smart with the worst three point shooter in the NBA would make some Celtics fans heads explode. If Detroit wanted to give Hayes to the Celtics for a second round pick, protected from picks 31-59, I don’t see him crashing the top eight of their rotation, unless there were injuries.

Stevens is on the right track by trying to surround the Jays with lengthy three point shooters (I have hope for Walsh as a shooter). They already have a tall, rangy non shooting PG type in Blanton, and one is more than enough, assuming he even makes the team.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
10,729
around the way
Yeah the "they need a PG" talk is somewhat old head. Sure if Lamelo Ball were to drop in their lap, awesome. But they're not going to play a guy who's materially worse than everyone else in the rotation just because position. Anyone worth picking up isn't available.
 

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,203
Not to pile on (but I will), Killian Hayes is very very bad. Unless his performance is entirely the result of poor player development from the Pistons, he is not a guy who would sniff minutes for the Celtics (and might not make the team). He is young but has been in the NBA awhile now and hasn't even approached being a playable rotation guy on a decent team.

Depending what people think of guys like PP, Hauser, and Kornet, there likely aren't minutes for any realistic targets. We have Brissett, Banton, Walsh (and maybe Davisdon) as fringe/developmental guys and don't see room for much else unless barring someone unexpected and proven becoming available.
 
Last edited:

radsoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 9, 2009
13,203
Didn’t know Kevin O’Conner was a lurker here.
In KOC's defense, he did a mea culpa on that one long ago. But yeah, that was a rough one. He had Hayes #1 overall!

That lotto was a bit weird, Anthony and LaMelo should have been at the top with Haliburton (picked 12th). Otherwise mostly junk.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
18,678
Santa Monica
In KOC's defense, he did a mea culpa on that one long ago. But yeah, that was a rough one. He had Hayes #1 overall!

That lotto was a bit weird, Anthony and LaMelo should have been at the top with Haliburton (picked 12th). Otherwise mostly junk.
That draft featured some decent ex-TOP10 talent in Halliburton, Bane, Maxey, Quickley, etc
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
28,857
That draft featured some decent ex-TOP10 talent in Halliburton, Bane, Maxey, Quickley, etc
I know I had Killian Hayes takes pre-draft but I'm apparently really bad at using search functions on my phone. I'm with everyone else....he's always sucked.
 

tbb345

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
8,244
In KOC's defense, he did a mea culpa on that one long ago. But yeah, that was a rough one. He had Hayes #1 overall!

That lotto was a bit weird, Anthony and LaMelo should have been at the top with Haliburton (picked 12th). Otherwise mostly junk.
I remember on some podcast during that draft cycle that Jonathan Givony completely shit on KOC’s evaluations and “intel” (for that year at least), particularly related to Lonzo Ball and Killian Hayes. KOC was completely out on Lonzo and weirdly in on Hayes. Both of those opinions look terrible in retrospect (and honestly they looked stupid in real time)
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,299
Saint Paul, MN
I remember on some podcast during that draft cycle that Jonathan Givony completely shit on KOC’s evaluations and “intel” (for that year at least), particularly related to Lonzo Ball and Killian Hayes. KOC was completely out on Lonzo and weirdly in on Hayes. Both of those opinions look terrible in retrospect (and honestly they looked stupid in real time)
I appreciate that he has his own takes at least. I think most draftniks are just regurgitating the masses with a few tweaks here and there
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
7,195
Imaginationland
I appreciate that he has his own takes at least. I think most draftniks are just regurgitating the masses with a few tweaks here and there
Eh, it's more interesting (which I guess is all we're really asking for in the entertainment business) but it's infinitely better to be conformist and correct than different and wrong. There's nothing wrong with coming to the same conclusion as other analysts, and you only get bonus points for going off the beaten path if you end up being correct.
 

Swedgin

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2013
685
If Brad concludes the team could use a traditional point guard, Washington seems like a good fit as a trade partner. They have Tyus Jones and Delon Wright, and plenty of developmental guards to give minutes to. I can see them one wanting to keep one of the two as an "adult" to run the offense allow them to properly evaluate what they have on the roster, so they do not end up like Houston last year, but they don't need both.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
18,678
Santa Monica
If Brad concludes the team could use a traditional point guard, Washington seems like a good fit as a trade partner. They have Tyus Jones and Delon Wright, and plenty of developmental guards to give minutes to. I can see them one wanting to keep one of the two as an "adult" to run the offense allow them to properly evaluate what they have on the roster, so they do not end up like Houston last year, but they don't need both.
Cellar fav Delon Wright should be available with Jones & Poole controlling the ball. But Delon's $$$ (even $8MM) becomes a problem.

Jaylen Nowell on a vet minimum for deep bench help could be an option, but I'm guessing they have Banton here for that role
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
18,678
Santa Monica
Eh, it's more interesting (which I guess is all we're really asking for in the entertainment business) but it's infinitely better to be conformist and correct than different and wrong. There's nothing wrong with coming to the same conclusion as other analysts, and you only get bonus points for going off the beaten path if you end up being correct.
NBA Draftniks for the most part stink, they focus on the lottery players as opposed to the NFL draft wizards who go pretty deep with player analysis

@nighthob & @DannyDarwinism do a nice job on the deep draft prospects around here
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,412
I know I had Killian Hayes takes pre-draft but I'm apparently really bad at using search functions on my phone. I'm with everyone else....he's always sucked.
I think I said that if you could combine Hayes and Theo Maledon you'd have an actual player. You can't Delonte West your way through a career anymore.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,412
NBA Draftniks for the most part stink, they focus on the lottery players as opposed to the NFL draft wizards who go pretty deep with player analysis

@nighthob & @DannyDarwinism do a nice job on the deep draft prospects around here
Thanks, I spend so much time watching game tape on YouTube that friends and family are convinced that I'm insane.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,412
I remember on some podcast during that draft cycle that Jonathan Givony completely shit on KOC’s evaluations and “intel” (for that year at least), particularly related to Lonzo Ball and Killian Hayes. KOC was completely out on Lonzo and weirdly in on Hayes. Both of those opinions look terrible in retrospect (and honestly they looked stupid in real time)
On the other hand I can tell you that I once got into a Rock'em Sock'em Robot fight with Givony over JaJuan Johnson (Givony called him the man that would replace Garnett) ten years ago or so. Most draftniks just pretend that these things never happened. No one pays me to do this stuff, so when I blunder in a draft evaluation (sorry again, Jaylen, I was 1000% wrong about you) I just shrug my shoulders and say "It happens".
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,412
West had no right hand. Sit on his left and he became largely useless. Hayes was the same way, couldn't go right at all. That's not a trait you look for in your lottery pick.
 

tbb345

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
8,244
I appreciate that he has his own takes at least. I think most draftniks are just regurgitating the masses with a few tweaks here and there
I sort of agree.
For this particularly case, and for KOC in general, I completely disagree. I think he’s trying to be different just to be different and get “clicks”. This is about right around the time it seems like he and The Ringer made a conscious choice for him to be a “personality”…and for the most part he’s gone very downhill since
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
32,606
I sort of agree.
For this particularly case, and for KOC in general, I completely disagree. I think he’s trying to be different just to be different and get “clicks”. This is about right around the time it seems like he and The Ringer made a conscious choice for him to be a “personality”…and for the most part he’s gone very downhill since
Yeah, KOC has been on a disappointing path. He got the job off the back of his draft guide which was really good. But then he became their general basketball guy, trying to make him the new Zach Lowe, but he's just not that good at analyzing basketball quickly. His draft stuff took a nosedive as he spent less time on it to give mediocre takes on everything. Then they started selling the pod and needed drama so it was hot take time.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
28,857
I think I said that if you could combine Hayes and Theo Maledon you'd have an actual player. You can't Delonte West your way through a career anymore.
Oh I definitely hated Hayes game. Not to the Dragan Bender extent but not far from it either. I just recall writing in some detail but zero recollection of specifics.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
20,097
I sort of agree.
For this particularly case, and for KOC in general, I completely disagree. I think he’s trying to be different just to be different and get “clicks”. This is about right around the time it seems like he and The Ringer made a conscious choice for him to be a “personality”…and for the most part he’s gone very downhill since
I think you need to look at his newfound Lakers fandom as the root cause moreso than the Ringer. Undeniable cause of brain rot.
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
3,375
Arkansas
i have a few trade ideas

harden wantes to play for the clips right so is this a good deal
Harden to LAC p george to philly then maxey to por for lillard
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
5,791
i have a few trade ideas

harden wantes to play for the clips right so is this a good deal
Harden to LAC p george to philly then maxey to por for lillard
Harden has 0 value to the Clippers without both kawhi and pg on the roster.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
7,195
Imaginationland
West had no right hand. Sit on his left and he became largely useless. Hayes was the same way, couldn't go right at all. That's not a trait you look for in your lottery pick.
Ah got it. It's been awhile since I watched him play, the only real memories I have left of him are highlight reel stuff (and most of his time here was on lousy teams), and that he was arguably the 2nd best player on the 08 Cavs team that took the Celtics to the brink.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,412
Ah got it. It's been awhile since I watched him play, the only real memories I have left of him are highlight reel stuff (and most of his time here was on lousy teams), and that he was arguably the 2nd best player on the 08 Cavs team that took the Celtics to the brink.
I agree (although I'd say 3rd/4th best), which is more a testimony to the unreal greatness of LeBron than anything else. In '07 LBJ took a team whose second best player belonged on the Celtics' bench to the NBA Finals. In '08 he took one of the greatest teams in NBA history to seven games.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
7,195
Imaginationland
I agree (although I'd say 3rd/4th best), which is more a testimony to the unreal greatness of LeBron than anything else. In '07 LBJ took a team whose second best player belonged on the Celtics' bench to the NBA Finals. In '08 he took one of the greatest teams in NBA history to seven games.
For sure, being the 2nd best player on that Cavs team is like being the 2nd best player on the court in a singles match against Nadal. Still, among non-Lebron Cavs his playoff rankings were:

1st in minutes
2nd in points
1st in assists
1st in steals
5th in rebounds
4th in blocks

He would've been at the back of the Celtics playoff rotation, fighting with House and Allen for the 7th/8th/9th man minutes (and potentially even finding himself behind Baby Davis and Cassell). Lebron was crazy.
 
Last edited: