The Conductor: who should Breslow haul to Boston this winter?

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory


Excellent work, Chawson! There can plenty of debate on who to pursue, but you laid out signings and trades that are plausible and kept the salary within the first threshold. I admit I've never heard of some if those NL pitchers, but I like the plan.
I just don't think Soto is plausible. I believe that Steve Cohen will not be outbid for Juan Soto whereas Hal Steinbrenner and John Henry will have lines they will not cross. I would absolutely love Juan Soto in a Sox uniform, but Cohen is the wild card here. He has much deeper pockets than both Henry and Hal and extra motivation to "win the deal" against his cross-town rival.
 

lexrageorge

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While the chances of the Sox signing Soto remain very low, by actually meeting with him (if those rumors are indeed correct), the team is actually improving its chances from 0% to some incremental number larger than zero. Also, the meeting accomplishes several other objectives:

a.) Sox find out early on if Soto is not going to happen, and can plan the offseason accordingly;

b.) Signals to both players and agents that the team is serious about pursuing top market free agents, which makes it more likely they get meetings with others in what is expected to be a very competitive offseason;

c.) Similar to #2, keeps them on the good side of Scott Boras (which is not nothing);

d.) Hey, you never know. Certainly stranger and unlikelier things have happened in baseball.
 

chawson

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Bohm's value is tied to the fact that he had a good defensive season in 2024, I don't know if slotting him in at DH would make much sense. As a hitter he's lesser than a Yoshida/Refsnyder platoon would be.
Yeah that's fair. What it would do is let us use the DH spot as a safety net for Devers or Casas getting hurt, which has happened a lot.
 

loneredseat

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I've been beating this drum a little bit but I'm going to beat it some more-
The most glaring need this off season is the pen. It was very bad last year and their top two relievers are leaving. I think they need to sign, at minimum, three top relievers.
Add to this one or two top starters. All things considered (cost, QO, ability) I like Eovaldi and Snell. I'd be fine with just one of them and a rotation of
Eovaldi/Snell
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Crawford

Add a back up catcher

If they sign Soto or any other high impact bat that's great, but I'd be fine with running out our offense as is, with the kids coming up. We can always trade for someone later, if it turns out to be a need. If they do sign Soto, or Teo, and trade an outfielder, I'd be more in favor of getting a young arm that may even be in the high minors than overpaying for someone like Crochet with just two years of control, as well as some other question marks.
 

chawson

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He has much deeper pockets than both Henry and Hal and extra motivation to "win the deal" against his cross-town rival.
Where do you infer this part from?

I suppose it's intuitive, but I've also seen reports that Cohen and Steinbrenner have "a mutually respectful relationship," as was reported in the Judge free agency (the Mets did not want to end up in a bidding war).

Soto is a different case, but I'm not sure that I see anyone having "extra motivation to win the deal against a crosstown rival."
 

grimshaw

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Top end talent is what wins championships.

Juan Soto is as top end of a talent as it gets and the team that’s signs him will be much much much better irregardless of who else is on their team.
There are plenty of instances this is true but not nearly as relevant in this sport - particularly in a short series. The 2013 Sox team didn't have a single player with an fWAR over 5. The Royals best players in 2015 were Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas and their best pitcher was Yordano Ventura The Yankees haven't won it with Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole but are right there to be fair. I know you don't mean every team, but it only gets you in the ballpark unless you're the Angels and don't complement your team with a good pitching staff.

I do believe that if the Sox signed Soto, they wouldn't stop there and just blow past the luxury tax, but you can only ride your stars so much in this sport especially. I would be giddy AF if they signed Soto, but it wouldn't be my first preference in how to build their team.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

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I think a Soto signing has a fair chance of happening. And we can afford to get Fried and trade for and extend Crochet as well.

Here's an ambitious offseason scenario that probably makes us favorites in the American League, and illustrates how bold Breslow can be while still be hovering around at the first tax threshold (if that's important).

Signings
- Sign Soto (12/$570M)
- Sign Fried (5/$140)
- Sign Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen (2/$10)
- Re-sign Chris Martin (1/$4.5)

Trades
- Trade Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom or David Hamilton, Franklin Arias and Jhostynxon Garcia to the White Sox for Garrett Crochet
- Trade Masataka Yoshida and Chase Meidroth to the Phillies for Alec Bohm (estimated $8.1 AAV in 2025; under control through 2026) and José Alvarado (1/$7.3 AAV left on contract)
- Trade Kutter Crawford, Hamilton or Grissom, Josh Winckowski, Blaze Jordan, and Mikey Romero to the Cardinals for Ryan Helsley (1/$6.9 estimated arb toward AAV) and Jordan Walker (one option remaining)
BTV for reference:

91713

Grissom's surplus value is actual 0.0 with Arias being 10.5. I think BTV has Crochet undervalued here and potentially has Abreu and Hamilton overvalued for what it's worth.

91714

This one isn't particularly close. I don't disagree with the idea of getting Bohm or Alvarado, but you need to find a far worse contract if you're trying to get rid of Yoshida without subsidizing him. I had posted something a while back that listed several candidates, and personally my vote for was for Kyle Freeland to be a swing man / #6 starter.

Other candidates from the post a few weeks ago:

I still prefer the idea of trading Yoshida for a bad pitching contract. For reference, Yoshida's Baseball Trade Value (BTV): -$25.5

Around the league, some similar bad contracts for pitching:
  • Sonny Gray (StL): -$16.1
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): -$32.7
  • Tyler Glasnow (LAD): -$38.1 (obviously misleading)
  • Robbie Ray (SF): -$34.2
  • Jordan Hicks (SF): -$19.8
  • Luis Castillo (SEA):-$30.6
  • Joe Musgrove (SD): -$29.6
  • Yu Darvish (SD): -$26.9
  • Taijuan Walker (PHI): -$30.6
  • Tyler Mahle (TEX): -$16.5
  • Kyle Freeland (COL): -$28.1
I wouldn't be looking at this as anything other than a rotational depth piece, but there are some names on here that interest me in some capacity.

91716

Grissom (0.0 Surplus value) would make this closer. If the Cardinals want to take that many guys off our 40 man roster, that very well may be addition be subtraction in some respect.

I just don't think Soto is plausible. I believe that Steve Cohen will not be outbid for Juan Soto whereas Hal Steinbrenner and John Henry will have lines they will not cross. I would absolutely love Juan Soto in a Sox uniform, but Cohen is the wild card here. He has much deeper pockets than both Henry and Hal and extra motivation to "win the deal" against his cross-town rival.
I could envision a Xander situation here where the Red Sox leave a meeting thinking they have him for something like 14/$630 and then Cohen comes in from the top rope with 15/$750.
 

Cassvt2023

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With whom are you arguing?
No one's saying we don't need to have pitching and defense.
The stated ownership position is that they don't want to shell out big money contracts on pitchers on the wrong side of 30.
Almost every big free agent pitcher that hits the market is on the wrong side of thirty.
To leverage our financial advantage, we need to spend it on elite hitting on the right side of thirty - Soto is that.

I'm saying - sign Soto - and trade from our stock of quality young cost-controlled (even elite) OF talent to acquire elite pitching
I meant to attach this to whoever above stated that superstar players like Soto bring World Championships. This statement is very lacking. There are So many examples, and I simply sighted the most obvious and recent one.
 

RedOctober3829

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Where do you infer this part from?

I suppose it's intuitive, but I've also seen reports that Cohen and Steinbrenner have "a mutually respectful relationship," as was reported in the Judge free agency (the Mets did not want to end up in a bidding war).

Soto is a different case, but I'm not sure that I see anyone having "extra motivation to win the deal against a crosstown rival."
I live in the NY area and all the talk is about that Soto is Cohen's "white whale" and that he will be going all out to sign him. I do think there's PR value in beating out the Yankees for Soto because the Mets are seen as 2nd class citizens in this town.
 

chawson

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BTV for reference:
The Phillies deal could be workshopped a little, looks like. But in general, I think BTV undervalues Yoshida quite a bit. I'd certainly much rather have him than someone like Taijuan Walker or Kyle Freeland. I don't think it's worth it to trade Yoshida for Walker or Castellanos.
 

chawson

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I live in the NY area and all the talk is about that Soto is Cohen's "white whale" and that he will be going all out to sign him. I do think there's PR value in beating out the Yankees for Soto because the Mets are seen as 2nd class citizens in this town.
Sure, but Steve Cohen doesn't need a white whale every year. Last winter it was Yamamoto...and also it was David Stearns. A few years ago the narrative was that he'd do whatever it took to land Scherzer and Verlander.
 

grimshaw

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The Phillies deal could be workshopped a little, looks like. But in general, I think BTV undervalues Yoshida quite a bit. I'd certainly much rather have him than someone like Taijuan Walker or Kyle Freeland. I don't think it's worth it to trade Yoshida for Walker or Castellanos.
BTV shorts players based on playing time, so his projection is maybe a bit lighter than you'd expect. Though he did ride the bench when healthy a bit too.

FWIW Steamer projections are out, and based on 550 PA they have him as half a win better.
 

RedOctober3829

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Sure, but Steve Cohen doesn't need a white whale every year. Last winter it was Yamamoto...and also it was David Stearns. A few years ago the narrative was that he'd do whatever it took to land Scherzer and Verlander.
And he did land Scherzer and Verlander. My point being if Cohen really wants a player that money does not matter. I think that's been pretty obvious ever since he has taken over.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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And he did land Scherzer and Verlander. My point being if Cohen really wants a player that money does not matter. I think that's been pretty obvious ever since he has taken over.
Yeah, I don't get the Cohen doubt. He spent gobs of money two years ago, then spent money to quickly flush that failed team. Now he has a team coming of an LCS berth that's currently well under the luxury tax and we think he's got a line? He'll spend whatever it takes to win a title. If it's down to the Mets and Red Sox for Soto, Cohen isn't going to be out bid.
 

nighthob

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Which apparently doesn't exist? Oh well ...
It does, and the Tweet reads thusly…

Juan Soto: "Since I was a child, my favorite MLB team was always Boston because of the Dominicans who played with them: Manny Ramírez, David Ortiz and Pedro. The Red Sox have always been my favorite team". This interview was done in January 2021, per @elpaditv
 

kazuneko

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I still prefer the idea of trading Yoshida for a bad pitching contract. For reference, Yoshida's Baseball Trade Value (BTV): -$25.5

Around the league, some similar bad contracts for pitching:
  • Sonny Gray (StL): -$16.1
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI): -$32.7
  • Tyler Glasnow (LAD): -$38.1 (obviously misleading)
  • Robbie Ray (SF): -$34.2
  • Jordan Hicks (SF): -$19.8
  • Luis Castillo (SEA):-$30.6
  • Joe Musgrove (SD): -$29.6
  • Yu Darvish (SD): -$26.9
  • Taijuan Walker (PHI): -$30.6
  • Tyler Mahle (TEX): -$16.5
  • Kyle Freeland (COL): -$28.1
I wouldn't be looking at this as anything other than a rotational depth piece, but there are some names on here that interest me in some capacity.
Is Luis Castillo's contract (4/$100 million) seen as that bad? I'd do Yoshida + (though technically, if you are buying into BTV's numbers, Seattle is the one that should be adding value) for Castillo in a second. I mean, Seattle is in a bit of a budget crunch, right? Yoshida for Castillo saves them $50 million and improves their offense considerably. He's effectively their 5th starter now, right? Whether they trade him for Yoshida or someone else it seems like that if your Seattle he'd be the piece you'd want to move for offense. I get that they don't want to trade one of their great, young arms (though honestly they should so that they can get an impact player) but they really should be trading Castillo before age catches up to him and they are stuck with a truly bad contract.
 
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Fishy1

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Is Luis Castillo's contract (4/$100 million) seen as that bad? Yoshida+ for Castillo I'd do in a second.
I don't trust BTV, honestly. Castillo has produced 2-4 fWAR each year with a sub 4 ERA in what's admittedly a pitcher's park. His xERA hasn't been superb the last couple of years, but the results have been there.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Castillo has a full no-trade for the record, no idea where he stands on waving it these days. I do think he’s the pitcher Seattle would actually consider trading, though.
 

kazuneko

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Castillo has a full no-trade for the record, no idea where he stands on waving it these days. I do think he’s the pitcher Seattle would actually consider trading, though.
With their budget they really should trade him - if he's willing to waive his no trade clause (which is a big if). He's still a good pitcher, but at his age that could change at any point. That's a big contract for that franchise to carry if he's not good, and as arguably their 5th best starter, he's really not that important to the team's success.
 
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Fishy1

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Where their budget they really should trade him - if he's willing to waive his no trade clause (which is a big if). He's still a good pitcher, but at his age that could change at any point. That's a big contract for that franchise to carry if he's not good, and as arguably their 5th best starter, he's really not that important to the team's success.
IMO it's Haniger/Garver they want to offload next year, I'd think. But those contracts are very underwater and immediately expiring, so they might just be inclined to ride them out rather than taking a bad deal.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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A note on Castillo, as I looked this up earlier in the off-season when his name came up. He does have a full NTC, but he also has an injury clause option at the end of the deal for $25m (he makes roughly $24m per season the next three). It's at least a reasonable guess that he would ask for that option to be picked up in order to waive said NTC, basically making his deal 4/$100m/$25mAAV.

He also happens to be from the Dominican Republic. I don't think there is any manner of childhood fandom or literally anything guys like Ortiz or Pedro could say that will make Juan Soto sign with the Red Sox for 10yrs / $550m / $55m as opposed to 10yrs / $650m / $65m from a New York team. However, I could see a scenario where they ARE able to convince someone like Castillo that Boston is a good enough place to play so that he waives his NTC AS LONG AS Boston picks up said option. (While I am not up to date on the Dominican legacy of other big market teams, one assumes the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Braves, etc have similar players which this could apply to as well).
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Hm, I’m talking myself into this a little. You could maybe get Castillo for Duran+ or Abreu and Grissom+, which solves 1B for Seattle by letting them use Raley there full time. They’d still have their top trade chip (Harry Ford) if they want to pursue a bigger bat, and the Red Sox would still have enough money left over to be able to sign a couple of tier-two FAs (like Teoscar and Eovaldi). Maybe I’m underestimating how much they’d let him go for.
 

simplicio

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There's no universe in which Castillo costs that much.

Also he isn't very good away from his home park, why do we want him?
 

Fishy1

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Hm, I’m talking myself into this a little. You could maybe get Castillo for Duran+ or Abreu and Grissom+, which solves 1B for Seattle by letting them use Raley there full time. They’d still have their top trade chip (Harry Ford) if they want to pursue a bigger bat, and the Red Sox would be able to sign a couple of tier-two FAs (like Teoscar and Eovaldi). Maybe I’m underestimating how much they’d let him go for.
This seems... like a terrible idea to me.

Castillo, when you consider that he's pitching in one of the very very very best parks in baseball to pitch in, would probably end up with an ERA like Kutter or Pivetta pitching for us full-time with the Monster in left field. His ERA+ last year was 101. Kutter was 98 and Pivetta was 103. PLUS Castillo is 31, the age when pitchers sometimes start to magically go poof (either getting injured or losing velo and effectiveness).

Would you trade Duran+ for Kutter Crawford if we were paying him 25 million a year? I don't think so.

I keep coming back to this... like when we people generate trade ideas on this board, it's always "let's take one of our very best performers and trade them away for a guy who might contribute a little more or a little less." When you're dealing major leaguers for major leaguers with other competitive teams you're often trying to get equal value back...which often leaves you having ultimately made a lateral move. (and in this case would involve trading the right to play Duran or Abreu or Grissom at a low cost for the next four to five years in order to pay a declining Castillo at 25 million a year)

It's bad business, and it's why nobody has been able to provide many examples of these trades happening. It's almost always prospects going back in a trade for pitching, and it's almost always with teams who aren't competitive who have guys in late arbitration who they're going to lose anyway. And what gets sent back is not very often particularly impressive unless you're trading for like, one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball who is on a bargain deal (like Sale).

And I still don't get why we're so obsessed with starting pitching when our starting pitching had the 7th best ERA in baseball. Our offense, meanwhile, was 11th in baseball with a 104 wrc+ (and there were 8 teams between 100-105, so they were basically mediocre). Trading away Wilyer or Duran would hurt us badly there.
 

benhogan

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Isn't Duran borderline untradeable? (unless he has off-the-field issues)

I get selling high, but at 28 he's smack dab in the middle of his prime on a cheap deal
 

RS2004foreever

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There are plenty of instances this is true but not nearly as relevant in this sport - particularly in a short series. The 2013 Sox team didn't have a single player with an fWAR over 5. The Royals best players in 2015 were Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas and their best pitcher was Yordano Ventura The Yankees haven't won it with Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole but are right there to be fair. I know you don't mean every team, but it only gets you in the ballpark unless you're the Angels and don't complement your team with a good pitching staff.

I do believe that if the Sox signed Soto, they wouldn't stop there and just blow past the luxury tax, but you can only ride your stars so much in this sport especially. I would be giddy AF if they signed Soto, but it wouldn't be my first preference in how to build their team.
The Red Sox have won four titles since 2000. The '04, '07, and '18 teams had top-end talent. Mookie Betts says hello.

The Red Sox, as likely constituted in '25, are not the Angels. They have money to sign Soto and get pitching.
 

Fishy1

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I still think we could see, like, Braden Montgomery, Meidroth, Perales going for Crochet. That's the sort of deal I'd happily make, and would set Chicago up with a guy in Meidroth who isn't super shiny but could have a lot of major league success, and two really projectable guys in Montgomery and Perales. Probably hard to sell Chicago on Montgomery without him playing a single game. I'm guessing they ask for Anthony/Teel/Abreu/Mayer and end up settling for a lesser guy though because there's so many red flags with Crochet.

This list of RP in arbitration is super interesting. I think the Nationals would happily deal Kyle Finnegan, but he's honestly not very good. But Jordan Romano could be a good reclamation project. Same goes for David Bednar in Pittsburgh and Anthony Bender in Miami. All guys who've had a lot of success but had bad or mediocre years last year.
 

chawson

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And I still don't get why we're so obsessed with starting pitching when our starting pitching had the 7th best ERA in baseball. Our offense, meanwhile, was 11th in baseball with a 104 wrc+ (and there were 8 teams between 100-105, so they were basically mediocre). Trading away Wilyer or Duran would hurt us badly there.
Totally agree here. We had the Fenway / T-Mobile park factor breakdown conversation awhile ago too. Not sure why we need to fantasize about acquiring a 32-year-old pitcher in decline who was noticeably worse away from his extremely pitcher-friendly home park.
 

benhogan

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This seems... like a terrible idea to me.

Castillo, when you consider that he's pitching in one of the very very very best parks in baseball to pitch in, would probably end up with an ERA like Kutter or Pivetta pitching for us full-time with the Monster in left field. His ERA+ last year was 101. Kutter was 98 and Pivetta was 103. PLUS Castillo is 31, the age when pitchers sometimes start to magically go poof (either getting injured or losing velo and effectiveness).

Would you trade Duran+ for Kutter Crawford if we were paying him 25 million a year? I don't think so.

I keep coming back to this... like when we people generate trade ideas on this board, it's always "let's take one of our very best performers and trade them away for a guy who might contribute a little more or a little less." When you're dealing major leaguers for major leaguers with other competitive teams you're often trying to get equal value back...which often leaves you having ultimately made a lateral move. (and in this case would involve trading the right to play Duran or Abreu or Grissom at a low cost for the next four to five years in order to pay a declining Castillo at 25 million a year)

It's bad business, and it's why nobody has been able to provide many examples of these trades happening. It's almost always prospects going back in a trade for pitching, and it's almost always with teams who aren't competitive who have guys in late arbitration who they're going to lose anyway. And what gets sent back is not very often particularly impressive unless you're trading for like, one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball who is on a bargain deal (like Sale).

And I still don't get why we're so obsessed with starting pitching when our starting pitching had the 7th best ERA in baseball. Our offense, meanwhile, was 11th in baseball with a 104 wrc+ (and there were 8 teams between 100-105, so they were basically mediocre). Trading away Wilyer or Duran would hurt us badly there.
Agreed the starting pitcher obsession via FA isn't a great idea. Not a fan of trading away the young, cost-controlled talent for a SP just yet (wait until the trade deadline when teams toss in the towel or players on the last year)

Use a basket of shekels on Soto

Upgrade the pen.
Move/subsidize Masa.
Add AA or AAA pitching in the Fitts, Sandlin, and Prisetler mold to fill in during the season.

Make a sizeable move in-season to address the greatest need.
 

Fishy1

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Totally agree here. We had the Fenway / T-Mobile park factor breakdown conversation awhile ago too. Not sure why we need to fantasize about acquiring a 32-year-old pitcher in decline who was noticeably worse away from his extremely pitcher-friendly home park.
Yeah, and I don't even hate the idea of getting starting pitching. I'm all aboard on signing Fried if we can't get Soto, if it's like, 4 or 5/140. Like go for it, why not. As a guy with great control, he'll probably continue to be very good for at least 2-3 more years.

What boggles my mind is the eagerness to give up major league players who've posted 3+ fWAR seasons, who are still super duper cheap, who play really really well on both sides of the ball...for starting pitching, which was above average last year, and when all of the deals that have been made in recent history show that it's not going to take that much. Like all of the comps to my mind suggest that the deal that we would make for Crochet would at its most expensive end up being Mayer+ (considering that Mayer's red flags with all of his injuries might lower his value, not ignoring his upside!).

And that plan makes sense to me @benhogan. I really think our season was sunk last year when the bullpen fell apart and the depth vomited all over itself.
 

loneredseat

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And I still don't get why we're so obsessed with starting pitching when our starting pitching had the 7th best ERA in baseball. Our offense, meanwhile, was 11th in baseball with a 104 wrc+ (and there were 8 teams between 100-105, so they were basically mediocre). Trading away Wilyer or Duran would hurt us badly there
And our relief pitching... well, let's just worry about that later. Like in the 6th inning, when we're up by a run or two.
 

nvalvo

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Isn't Duran borderline untradeable? (unless he has off-the-field issues)

I get selling high, but at 28 he's smack dab in the middle of his prime on a cheap deal
I wouldn't do it, but the case would be that 2024 was a fluke-y season defensively, and that he projects going forward as a 3-4 WAR guy rather than the 7 WAR guy he was this year. He was a very poor outfield defender for his first three seasons before suddenly having one of the better defensive seasons in baseball last year.

So if you can get someone to value him like a 7 WAR player, maybe you sell high. But I basically agree with you. His arb years have so much projected surplus that you'd really need to get a haul back for it to make sense, and I don't see who would give you that.
 

ehaz

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Just pay Max Fried and keep your prospects/position players. He’s better than Castillo (whose stats and velo are trending down), only costs money and is left handed.

If they really think he’s the perfect fit as Passan reported, I hope they go after him quickly and aggressively/don’t let a Soto pipe dream hold it up.

Just based on his profile as a pitcher, I think Fried is as solid a bet as any 30 year old pitcher to age gracefully (assuming no injury flags). He has never really been reliant on fastball velocity / generating tons of Ks. Fried misses his share of bats, but more a guy that limits walks, induces grounders, and consistently limits hard contact. Top 10 percent of the league in exit velocity for five years running, pretty much same story for barrel rate, hard hit %, barrels, xSLG, etc.
 

kazuneko

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Hm, I’m talking myself into this a little. You could maybe get Castillo for Duran+ or Abreu and Grissom+, which solves 1B for Seattle by letting them use Raley there full time. They’d still have their top trade chip (Harry Ford) if they want to pursue a bigger bat, and the Red Sox would still have enough money left over to be able to sign a couple of tier-two FAs (like Teoscar and Eovaldi). Maybe I’m underestimating how much they’d let him go for.
Yeah, it was because Castillo came up on BTV as having more negative trade value than Yoshida that a trade for him was being discussed. While I think BTV undervalues him, their evaluation isn’t totally crazy. He’s still a good pitcher but he’s old and expensive. Yoshida + a non-top 5 prospect might make sense for both teams, but no friggin way would I give up a major asset for him. Yoshida plus Grissom would be as high as I’d go, and that could be an interesting trade for both teams. Gives Seattle two bats that they could really use for a guy who they really can't afford and is effectively their fifth starter. Obviously, the no-trade clause is a big barrier that would have to be overcome, but guaranteeing the 4 years could convince Castillo to sign off.
 
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YTF

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I still think we could see, like, Braden Montgomery, Meidroth, Perales going for Crochet. That's the sort of deal I'd happily make, and would set Chicago up with a guy in Meidroth who isn't super shiny but could have a lot of major league success, and two really projectable guys in Montgomery and Perales. Probably hard to sell Chicago on Montgomery without him playing a single game. I'm guessing they ask for Anthony/Teel/Abreu/Mayer and end up settling for a lesser guy though because there's so many red flags with Crochet.

This list of RP in arbitration is super interesting. I think the Nationals would happily deal Kyle Finnegan, but he's honestly not very good. But Jordan Romano could be a good reclamation project. Same goes for David Bednar in Pittsburgh and Anthony Bender in Miami. All guys who've had a lot of success but had bad or mediocre years last year.
Not that this might be their #1 consideration, but at some point bodies are going to have to be moved off the 40 man roster. I think we see at least one of those included in whatever offer might be made for Crochet.
 

Fishy1

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Nov 10, 2006
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Not that this might be their #1 consideration, but at some point bodies are going to have to be moved off the 40 man roster. I think we see at least one of those included in whatever offer might be made for Crochet.
The answer to moving bodies off the 40 man is trading, like, Hamilton, for relief pitching and prospects (which he's worth) and Romy, or Wong, not moving on from our best young prospects.

We got Isaiah Campbell for the corpse of Luis Urias last winter, and obviously Campbell ended up sucking--but on the whole he had a good chance of being pretty good. We got O'Neill for nothing but Nick Robertson. We can fill out the roster by trading more fungible guys without making the big deals imo.

Just pay Max Fried and keep your prospects/position players. He’s better than Castillo (whose stats and velo are trending down), only costs money and is left handed.

If they really think he’s the perfect fit as Passan reported, I hope they go after him quickly and aggressively/don’t let a Soto pipe dream hold it up.

Just based on his profile as a pitcher, I think Fried is as solid a bet as any 30 year old pitcher to age gracefully (assuming no injury flags). He has never really been reliant on fastball velocity / generating tons of Ks. Fried misses his share of bats, but more a guy that limits walks, induces grounders, and consistently limits hard contact. Top 10 percent of the league in exit velocity for five years running, pretty much same story for barrel rate, hard hit %, barrels, xSLG, etc.
Exactly. It makes too much sense almost.
 

BoSox Rule

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Jul 15, 2005
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Guys, anyone saying Soto might get $700 million: I’m very comfortable saying that isn’t happening. Ohtani is the most unique player in baseball history, both in terms in talent and what he brings in for himself internationally. Soto is VERY unlikely to defer $68 million per year like he did, and the present day value of Ohtani’s contract was “only” $438m.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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Ohtani got his deal going into his age 29 season. Soto's three years younger and that matters.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

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Guys, anyone saying Soto might get $700 million: I’m very comfortable saying that isn’t happening. Ohtani is the most unique player in baseball history, both in terms in talent and what he brings in for himself internationally. Soto is VERY unlikely to defer $68 million per year like he did, and the present day value of Ohtani’s contract was “only” $438m.
Age is a factor and practically I'm sure teams weren't anticipating Ohtani to be a pitcher for the life of that deal. The other argument is that because of the deferment you can argue that Ohtani took a below market deal to play with the Dodgers.
 

BoSox Rule

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You guys are still talking about an extra $270m in present day value though. I just don’t see it.
 

simplicio

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Apr 11, 2012
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$270m is just about the difference between the Yamamoto and Imanaga contracts, ironically. Young guys available for just money are scarce.
 

pdub

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Jun 2, 2007
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Guys, anyone saying Soto might get $700 million: I’m very comfortable saying that isn’t happening. Ohtani is the most unique player in baseball history, both in terms in talent and what he brings in for himself internationally. Soto is VERY unlikely to defer $68 million per year like he did, and the present day value of Ohtani’s contract was “only” $438m.
I can see your point but, at the same time, he's 26 and a generational hitter. This type of player is rarely available. I think he'll get $600M, but who knows these days.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Jan 13, 2021
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I can see your point but, at the same time, he's 26 and a generational hitter. This type of player is rarely available. I think he'll get $600M, but who knows these days.
I get your point, but he’s been available twice in the last three years! Yes, now he’s available for just cash, so it’s different.
 

TheDogMan

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Oct 25, 2024
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Soto,Judge and Stanton couldn’t produce a World Series championship.
He is not the great savior.but if we are serious about spending $600 million plus on one player think of the group of free agents we could sign for that money.
He alone helps a lot but we all know pitching help is required if we want to win it all. A lot of pitching help, Crochet or Roko, one of the Big Three FA starters, a real good closer and 8th inning guy. Pick up a right handed bat if needed at the deadline. Signing Soto and any of the three top starters will cost around 90 Mil a year. That said, for what we have had to deal with while waiting for this window, we deserve that kind of effort from our front office. Let's get it done! Our competition will be stiff but ownership needs the will to win.
 

TheDogMan

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Oct 25, 2024
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I've been beating this drum a little bit but I'm going to beat it some more-
The most glaring need this off season is the pen. It was very bad last year and their top two relievers are leaving. I think they need to sign, at minimum, three top relievers.
Add to this one or two top starters. All things considered (cost, QO, ability) I like Eovaldi and Snell. I'd be fine with just one of them and a rotation of
Eovaldi/Snell
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Crawford

Add a back up catcher

If they sign Soto or any other high impact bat that's great, but I'd be fine with running out our offense as is, with the kids coming up. We can always trade for someone later, if it turns out to be a need. If they do sign Soto, or Teo, and trade an outfielder, I'd be more in favor of getting a young arm that may even be in the high minors than overpaying for someone like Crochet with just two years of control, as well as some other question marks.
Look at the Dodgers, if we made it to the series and played them we would need aton of luck to defeat them with such a rotation. If we can't get Soto and I think it is a Longshot to get him we need two aces and two relievers, one of whom is a bigtime closer. Sox have money and trade chips. I wonder how Craig Breslow ranks the available pitchers.